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Post by Lstream on Jan 23, 2014 8:53:32 GMT -8
Nothing - new iPads just hatch themselves from old iPads. Same for iPhones. A6 processors give birth to A7 processors. All without any supervision. Fire the slackers. Do they not have a team working on new products? Lots of far smaller companies release yearly updated CPU's or GPU's or Cameras...with the resources Apple has, they should be able to hire teams to work on completely new products. I don't think there's much YOY growth left in the iPhone or iPad. Or what growth will happen will get hurt by lower ASP Of course they do. And just like always, Apple will tell us nothing about what they are doing, until they can ship something. Just like it always has been.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 23, 2014 9:27:53 GMT -8
Nothing really new since the iPhone? So you are totally discounting the iPad? It was a great selling product and I love mine, but it's not exactly a completely new product...it's an iPhone on steroids. Even if you count that, it's still 4 years since anything new Vitalogy80, Unfortunately, the more you post, the more I am getting concerned that you are on Samsung's payroll. Might make sense for them to have a troll on this board. Very disappointing repetition of all the negative blog and media comments we hear on a regular basis. Really not sure why you are involved with AAPL.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 23, 2014 10:02:30 GMT -8
Wow, my bullshit detector started squealing today when I came onto this board.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2014 10:44:07 GMT -8
AAPL showing nice relative strength
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Post by cbingle on Jan 23, 2014 10:54:56 GMT -8
Red Shirted Ensign Member
Posts: 1,803 Member is Online
10 minutes ago via the ProBoards App ReplyQuotePost by Red Shirted Ensign on 10 minutes ago AAPL showing nice relative strength
Thanks for that informative update
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Post by Lstream on Jan 23, 2014 11:00:35 GMT -8
Red Shirted Ensign Member Posts: 1,803 Member is Online 10 minutes ago via the ProBoards App ReplyQuotePost by Red Shirted Ensign on 10 minutes ago AAPL showing nice relative strength Thanks for that informative update Who do we send the ransom to? You know, the group that has you tied up and is forcing you to read these posts?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2014 11:16:34 GMT -8
Red Shirted Ensign Member Posts: 1,803 Member is Online 10 minutes ago via the ProBoards App ReplyQuotePost by Red Shirted Ensign on 10 minutes ago AAPL showing nice relative strength Thanks for that informative update LOL....sorry if a comment on relative market action involving Apple bothered you. Cheer up....or maybe sarcasm escapes me. Or not.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 23, 2014 11:25:19 GMT -8
Red Shirted Ensign Member Posts: 1,803 Member is Online 10 minutes ago via the ProBoards App ReplyQuotePost by Red Shirted Ensign on 10 minutes ago AAPL showing nice relative strength Thanks for that informative update LOL....sorry if a comment on relative market action involving Apple bothered you. Cheer up....or maybe sarcasm escapes me. Or not.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 23, 2014 11:27:10 GMT -8
LOL....sorry if a comment on relative market action involving Apple bothered you. Cheer up....or maybe sarcasm escapes me. Or not. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/zT2ae1WkuC0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Let me be the first to complain about this post. Like WTF???!!!!
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Post by cbingle on Jan 23, 2014 11:33:47 GMT -8
Who do we send the ransom to? You know, the group that has you tied up and is forcing you to read these posts?
No need to send money. Got plenty. The entertainment value of this board is priceless.
Thanks for your concern.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 11:36:48 GMT -8
It was a great selling product and I love mine, but it's not exactly a completely new product...it's an iPhone on steroids. Even if you count that, it's still 4 years since anything new Vitalogy80, Unfortunately, the more you post, the more I am getting concerned that you are on Samsung's payroll. Might make sense for them to have a troll on this board. Very disappointing repetition of all the negative blog and media comments we hear on a regular basis. Really not sure why you are involved with AAPL. I see with your 10 total posts you contribute a lot...so anyone that has concerns about Apple is on Samsungs payroll? Facts are that Apple isn't growing anymore and they need a new product...you can be mad at me about that if you want, but it's just the facts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 11:38:27 GMT -8
Also, do you really think Samsung cares about an AAPL forum with about 20 people that post on it?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2014 11:40:17 GMT -8
Who do we send the ransom to? You know, the group that has you tied up and is forcing you to read these posts? No need to send money. Got plenty. The entertainment value of this board is priceless. Thanks for your concern. On a further note, AAPL daily action continues to show relative strength. Volume reasonable but not exceptional. 555 crossed but not held. 545 (50 day SMA) continues to provide short term support. Late day positioning could be interesting. JMHO...
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Post by po1nt on Jan 23, 2014 11:43:23 GMT -8
Still in both wedges...
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Jan 23, 2014 12:03:28 GMT -8
I have to agree that I find vitalogy80's post to have a consistently negative tone and have wondered if he was a Samsung troll as well. When I look at the the content of the posts though, I think he has a point and is serving an important role in keeping us grounded. I believed in Apple enough to mortgage my house to double my stock position, but it would be foolish to not examine those beliefs periodically. Vitalogy80 makes a recurring point that Apple's growth is slowing and that the rate of increase is negative. He is right. If you look at Q1 for the past few years, in 2011, revenue was 26 billion. In 2012, Q1 was 46 billion, or 42 billion if you adjust for the 14 week quarter. 2013 was 54 billion. So 26...42...54. The upper end of guidance for 2014 is 58 billion. If we hit that, look at the trend; growth of 16 then 12 then 4 billion.
If we further assume that people buy the stock out of greed and sell out of fear, why would a "greater fool" buyer buy into a stock whose growth is slowing when there are other stocks with an overabundance of fools? My personal belief is that we will see a long slow climb based on the amazing accumulation of profit, but I think the party is over.
There are only two indicators that would convince me that we are approaching a top. One is when 50% of the posts are about what new super car someone is gong to buy and the other is when Nate announces that he has bought Apple again
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 12:14:37 GMT -8
Carl Icahn added another half billion in shares today - now owns 3.6 billion worth
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 12:17:56 GMT -8
Yes, I have been negative...but I was also consistently reminding people who complained every Friday when we were down that Apple was up $150 in 6 months. Personally I think we could have used more of a warning or a few other people sounding the alarms when Apple was flying up to $700. Instead everyone was just focused on how long it would take to get to $1,000 or $2,000.
If Apple blows it out of the water on Monday, I'll be happier than anyone...but if they report $14.01 and I have to hear about Tim and laser focus, I'll be done unless guidance for April is encouraging. Anything less than $14.50 is basically Net Income decrease, and I don't see anyone much higher than $15, which is a net income increase of less than 5%.
There are really only 2 things Apple can do to increase shareholder returns...buyback more shares or release new products.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2014 12:27:59 GMT -8
CARL ICAHN's SEC letter about AAPL: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000092846414000003/aaplpx14a6g012314.htma good read..... Apple is perhaps the most overcapitalized company in corporate history
....
let’s take a moment to consider the possibility of an Apple television. The major electronics companies are now focused on ultra high definition TVs as their next big opportunity. Ultra high definition is expected to offer a level of image clarity that is superior to today’s high definition televisions for screen sizes 55 inches and above. To date, the barrier to mass market adoption of ultra high definition has been the price gap between it and regular high definition, but that price gap is closing and will soon be de minimis. .....
Apple could introduce a next generation payments solution. In terms of whether the marketplace is well addressed by mobile payments solutions, Tim Cook has said “I think it is in its infancy… I think it is just getting started and just of out of the starting block.” With the fingerprint sensor, iBeacon, 575+ million credit card numbers stored in iTunes, and Apple’s homogeneous iOS installed base with 79% of devices using iOS 7,
...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2014 12:35:15 GMT -8
Well, the battle lines are being drawn very clearly now....I will certainly be interested if the Board responds with more detail on its own objectives and plans. I suspect they will not, nor should be necessarily have to. A vote for the Board is a vote for the Board's judgement.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 23, 2014 12:47:40 GMT -8
Also, do you really think Samsung cares about an AAPL forum with about 20 people that post on it? I apolegize for starting to post here recently without introducing myself properly. I tried to post here about a year ago but for some reason I couldn’t get proboards to work properly. I had wondered whether or not lovey had sensored me but I don’t think so. I am an investment advisor for a major Canadian brokerage firm and have been advising clients for almost 22 years. I am in my mid-fifties but don’t feel old. I bought my first Apple shares 6 years ago tomorrow and started to recommend Apple to my clients about 4 years ago. I understand the frustration with being long Apple as I rode it from $205 down to $79 once upon a time. Despite this, I have continued to add to my clients and my postions over the years and haven’t sold a share yet. I say this because it requires “faith” to invest in Apple over the past year and a half. Everyone is afraid of Apple, worried that their businesses too will be disrupted. It has resulted in a perfect storm of Apple negativity in the media. And then there are the spiffs and the multi-million dollar advertising budgets from the competitors. My faith at this point is unshakeable. Even whe it was at $388. It has to be to be long. I will loose faith in Apple when something fundamentally changes at the company. I haven’t seen anything yet but I am paying close attention. If the company doesn’t release a new product category this year, I will know something has fundamentally changed at the company and probably will recommend that my clients sell their share. Optimism has to be my outlook as I have to stop clients from putting all their money into stocks when the market is “high” and cashing them in when the market is “low”. It will tell you a lot to know that I appreciated Sponge’s optimism and viewpoints. Sure they might seem a bit wacky or far-fetched at times but they were valuable. Think of the frustration he must have felt with all the negativity that was spewed at him. You will notice that the most negative posters don’t last on this board and why should they. When you deal with other people’s money, the pressure to not screw-up is much higher than when it is your own. Since this is a pro-Apple board, it doesn’t make sense to repeat this negativity that we hear everyday. What we need are useful links to well thought out articles and news. We need to encourage each other to keep the faith. Otherwise, why post here? I come here to get a feel for the sentiment amongst Apple followers that I respect. Many times, like most of you, I have thought about not visiting here anymore. It seems when Apple tanks, so do some people’s attitudes here. This is unfortunate but it does give me insight into sentiment. I really do own a Volvo coupe and will post it to my Avatar at some point although I know I will run the risk of inflaming the board with “car talk”. I will be going to Horace’s Airshow in Vancouver this year. His analyis is the most objective and best in the business on Apple and the industry. Gave up following brokerage analysts about 18 years ago. Worthless info for the most part. If any of you will be attending Airshow, let me know and we can grab a drink. Hopefully we can pursuade Horace to come along. Best regards, Volvocoupe
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Post by firestorm on Jan 23, 2014 12:53:27 GMT -8
There is a good report from the Wall Street Journal today talking about Apple's plans for the iPhone, in which the author reports that there will be two larger iPhones offered this year, and that the plastic shelled 5c will not see a successor (apparently it sold below expectations–it is really possible that Apple made a mistake?). Take the report with a grain of salt, but it makes a lot of sense and if Tim was to take my advice, that would be the strategy I would recommend. I think that report, combined with the Icahn purchase, reversed AAPL's fortunes today.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 23, 2014 13:00:30 GMT -8
iCahn buying shares hand over fist just a few days before earnings ..... curious time to load up unless you know something ?? I can't imagine he has any direct info from Tim but I'm sure his info is much better than mine ....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 13:07:22 GMT -8
Welcome Volvo...while I agree it's a Pro Apple board, I think I (and many others) got sucked into taking on too much risk when others posted nothing but "Apple to $1,000!" and everything was about how Apple is the greatest and nothing can stop that. I certainly don't blame others here, it was my decisions and I take full responsibility, but when all you hear is how Apple will go to $1,000, those Jan 14 bull $600 / $650 Bull Call Spreads sure seemed like free money when Apple is charging past $700 in 2012.
I don't want to see links to BusinessInsider and the link bait crap they spew, but I'm only bringing up the issues I see...which is that Apple isn't growing Net Income anymore. The growth days are over IMHO, until a new product is released. It's my opinion that Apple is way over-capitalized and should be giving that money back to Shareholders...Apple is making 45B in Free Cash Flow every year, if there comes a point where they "need" that $150B for day to day operations, we'll be way past "Apple is doomed" zone.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 23, 2014 13:07:57 GMT -8
So very close...
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2014 13:14:48 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Jan 23, 2014 13:17:36 GMT -8
I really do own a Volvo coupe and will post it to my Avatar at some point although I know I will run the risk of inflaming the board with “car talk”.
Talk to JD
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 13:25:20 GMT -8
So very close... Thans for sharing - looks like we are poised for a big move one way or the other - I wonder if it makes the break before earnings or after
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 23, 2014 13:27:49 GMT -8
So very close... Seems the inner wedge crosses right around earnings. Interesting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 13:39:20 GMT -8
There is a good report from the Wall Street Journal today talking about Apple's plans for the iPhone, in which the author reports that there will be two larger iPhones offered this year, and that the plastic shelled 5c will not see a successor (apparently it sold below expectations–it is really possible that Apple made a mistake?). Take the report with a grain of salt, but it makes a lot of sense and if Tim was to take my advice, that would be the strategy I would recommend. I think that report, combined with the Icahn purchase, reversed AAPL's fortunes today. i don't think anybody was expecting the 5C to be replaced this year, instead it drops one spot into the $450 entry level slot currently occupied by the 4S. If/when Apple offers the larger screen iPhone later this year, I expect to be the premium model (with no cheaper plastic "C" variant with a larger screen appearing until 2015). i find the notion of an even larger 5.3" or bigger "Phablet" iPhone intriguing - i previously considered these ridiculous for my own personal use, but there are way to many reports of these models soaking up a sizable chunk of the premium market in much of Asia that it seems Apple should get in on the action if for no other reason than to protect its high end premium customer share. thinking it through I guess I always suspected that if you were in an emerging market and were going to spent a significant amount of your annual income on a smartphone, it makes sense to buy a model that fulfills both the smartphone & tablet use cases - sure it detracts from each use case a bit (too large for comfortable phone use, too small for some tablet apps), but the tradeoffs are worth the big cost saving of only paying for one device (likely at least partly subsidized) and it has one advantage a tablet often doesn't - a constant cellular connection.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 23, 2014 13:47:41 GMT -8
Welcome Volvo...while I agree it's a Pro Apple board, I think I (and many others) got sucked into taking on too much risk when others posted nothing but "Apple to $1,000!" and everything was about how Apple is the greatest and nothing can stop that. I certainly don't blame others here, it was my decisions and I take full responsibility, but when all you hear is how Apple will go to $1,000, those Jan 14 bull $600 / $650 Bull Call Spreads sure seemed like free money when Apple is charging past $700 in 2012. I don't want to see links to BusinessInsider and the link bait crap they spew, but I'm only bringing up the issues I see...which is that Apple isn't growing Net Income anymore. The growth days are over IMHO, until a new product is released. It's my opinion that Apple is way over-capitalized and should be giving that money back to Shareholders...Apple is making 45B in Free Cash Flow every year, if there comes a point where they "need" that $150B for day to day operations, we'll be way past "Apple is doomed" zone. Vitalogy80, thank you for the welcome and your measured reply. I feel very confident that APPL will go to $1,000 and beyond, it just won’t get there on our timetables. I only use options as “insurance” for my clients. I would love to see a stock split to reduce the need for some people to buy options. I completely agree that Apple’s growth will be modest until new product categories are released, but have little doubt that new products are coming. I go back to a chart Daniel Tello published about 4 years ago which I keep in my desk. It showed new product launches from Apple and the resulting huge increase in revenues and profits that resulted right out of the gate. As for the cash, as I said yesterday, who are we to tell Apple how much cash they should have? Carl has a history that we are all aware of. He will keep going until Apple’s stock is much higher and this can only be good for us. The fact that the media and pundits think that this is bad for Apple’s board is really a non-starter. The board and TC will do what they think is best and I certainly don’t know what that is. I believe they do know what they are doing however until proven otherwise. When I talk to clients about Apple I tell them that it will be obvious to everyone by mid-2015 who is “winning”. I also think, by that time, people will be having serious doubts about Google and Android. Everything takes time. Apple has it’s own timetable. Has the lack of a large screen iphone really hurt them? Somewhat, but having vanquished all incumbents with only Samsung to go isn’t too bad is it? I also like to hear people opinions here on what could be coming. If others here do, here’s a thought I have… just as the iPad was the “cheap” (netbook) PC with a 40% profit margin, could the iWatch be the “cheap” iphone with a 40% profit margin? Lastly, I should tell you all that I go back as far as two years before the end of The Mac Observer finance board when Robert was running things, as a lurker. I have appreciated everyone’s thoughts since then. Back to work now. Cheers to the longs.
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