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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2014 3:16:13 GMT -8
By way of news this morning...AAPL saying it is working on a fix for random iOS7 crashing issue - lots of reiterations and opinions on Icahn's position and battle cry from yesterday toward AAPL (from negative to positive - take your pick). It's all about Monday - we are 3 business days away. One after-thought I had about a comment from yesterday tho: some here were concerned about the VZ numbers YOY with iPhones (some of you backed into the numbers)...burgess eased our concerns a bit given the comments on the conference call which referenced that VZ was running a promotion last year whereby they were giving away free iPhones with certain data plans) - I can appreciate how that inflated last year's numbers for comparison purposes but net-net, AAPL received the cash for those phones. The hickey was taken by VZ for their promotion - not Apple. So wouldn't that inflate last year's numbers a bit with AAPL at VZ? What am I missing? I'm sure I'm missing something ... feel free to clarify ... anyone will do.
Stock looks up +1.32 as I create this thread...let's continue to hope for more green and a response to earnings like NFLX had! Next week will be epic with AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOG, and BIDU all reporting to mention but a few. Good luck out there today!
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 23, 2014 3:52:30 GMT -8
VZ was running a promotion last year whereby they were giving away free iPhones with certain data plans) - I can appreciate how that inflated last year's numbers for comparison purposes but net-net, AAPL received the cash for those phones. The hickey was taken by VZ for their promotion - not Apple. You're misinterpreting what Verizon said, there was no promotion and it had nothing to do with data plans. Since Verizon never had the iPhone 3GS, last fall was the first time their lowest model, the iPhone 4, reached the free pricing level. They've had, and still do have, a free iPhone ever since. "While VZ didn’t break out iPhone activations, it noted there were fewer smartphone upgrades this year due to some of the policy changes it implemented and also because last year benefitted from iPhones becoming free for the first time on its network."
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2014 4:00:55 GMT -8
VZ was running a promotion last year whereby they were giving away free iPhones with certain data plans) - I can appreciate how that inflated last year's numbers for comparison purposes but net-net, AAPL received the cash for those phones. The hickey was taken by VZ for their promotion - not Apple. You're misinterpreting what Verizon said, there was no promotion and it had nothing to do with data plans. Since Verizon never had the iPhone 3GS, last fall was the first time their lowest model, the iPhone 4, reached the free pricing level. They've had, and still do have, a free iPhone ever since. "While VZ didn’t break out iPhone activations, it noted there were fewer smartphone upgrades this year due to some of the policy changes it implemented and also because last year benefitted from iPhones becoming free for the first time on its network." Thank you - I - in fact - completely misinterpreted hence my confusion.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 23, 2014 4:18:36 GMT -8
One other macro point possibly affecting sentiment today might be the surprise disappointment out of China Manufacturing #s over evening. Not directly related to AAPL, but still. But in a country where 7.7 overall GDP growth is considered "tepid" one has to keep perspective. abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-factory-index-1st-contraction-months-21631514The VZ report shows The growth story if iPhone clearly isn't in the US per se- we pin our hopes on markets like Chine, Brazil, India, Japan etc.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2014 6:28:02 GMT -8
Whole market (except NFLX) looking very soft --- I guess the news that Justin Bieber was arrested on DUI is disseminating!
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2014 6:34:47 GMT -8
Whole market (except NFLX) looking very soft --- I guess the news that Justin Bieber was arrested on DUI is disseminating! IMHO: NFLX is up because their customer numbers increased DRAMATICALLY. Folks are out of work, canceling their cable and watching NFLX. Many consumer goods companies are reporting slower growth and poor guidance. I do not expect Apple to report great sales or good guidance....
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Post by macwire on Jan 23, 2014 6:38:36 GMT -8
What's this red color on my screen. Confused.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 23, 2014 6:51:59 GMT -8
Whole market (except NFLX) looking very soft --- I guess the news that Justin Bieber was arrested on DUI is disseminating! IMHO: NFLX is up because their customer numbers increased DRAMATICALLY. Folks are out of work, canceling their cable and watching NFLX. Many consumer goods companies are reporting slower growth and poor guidance. I do not expect Apple to report great sales or good guidance.... But Art, we've been in a global recession for years and Apple has done just fine 'cept for last year. You think "slower growth" is going to be more of a factor affecting Apple now that there are signs of economic improvement and AAPL having some momentum going forward?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2014 7:01:51 GMT -8
IMHO: NFLX is up because their customer numbers increased DRAMATICALLY. Folks are out of work, canceling their cable and watching NFLX. Many consumer goods companies are reporting slower growth and poor guidance. I do not expect Apple to report great sales or good guidance.... But Art, we've been in a global recession for years and Apple has done just fine 'cept for last year. You think "slower growth" is going to be more of a factor affecting Apple now that there are signs of economic improvement and AAPL having some momentum going forward? I think the overall market is overvalued. When the market goes down, it will drag AAPL with it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 7:01:52 GMT -8
I do not expect Apple to report great sales or good guidance.... Says Art, "No iPad mini." Time to go long here...
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2014 7:04:17 GMT -8
NFLX also did well due to the cold weather in the qtr. amongst other things -- folks stuck indoors and subscribing for entertainment.
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Post by geraci on Jan 23, 2014 7:15:50 GMT -8
As "smart TV's" gain use, Netflix should benefit from new subscribers looking to make use of their new TV features.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 23, 2014 7:20:55 GMT -8
But Art, we've been in a global recession for years and Apple has done just fine 'cept for last year. You think "slower growth" is going to be more of a factor affecting Apple now that there are signs of economic improvement and AAPL having some momentum going forward? I think the overall market is overvalued. When the market goes down, it will drag AAPL with it. OK, but those are two very different issues: Apple not reporting or guiding well vs. a market correction due to frothiness taking AAPL down with it...
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Post by firestorm on Jan 23, 2014 7:24:31 GMT -8
Good piece on NPR this morning about the outmoded magnetic stripe credit card system in the USA, which invites hacking. Chip-based cards are used most everywhere in the world and the US will be transitioning to such cards in the next year. At a time when Apple has new payment capabilities, this would seem to be the perfect storm of timing for Apple to enter a completely new market. Perhaps they should buy MasterCard and revolutionize that company and the industry. I'm sure Tim is reading my words.
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Post by macwire on Jan 23, 2014 7:34:28 GMT -8
Good piece on NPR this morning about the outmoded magnetic stripe credit card system in the USA, which invites hacking. Chip-based cards are used most everywhere in the world and the US will be transitioning to such cards in the next year. At a time when Apple has new payment capabilities, this would seem to be the perfect storm of timing for Apple to enter a completely new market. Perhaps they should buy MasterCard and revolutionize that company and the industry. I'm sure Tim is reading my words. Im not sure if you're serious or not but MA has a 100billion dollar market cap...
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2014 7:34:43 GMT -8
So MANY ideas for all that cash.... And miles to go before I sleep....
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 7:39:13 GMT -8
Earning Whisper number has jumped up to $14.31 from around $14.12 last week...are the whisper numbers very accurate?
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Post by firestorm on Jan 23, 2014 7:44:27 GMT -8
Good piece on NPR this morning about the outmoded magnetic stripe credit card system in the USA, which invites hacking. Chip-based cards are used most everywhere in the world and the US will be transitioning to such cards in the next year. At a time when Apple has new payment capabilities, this would seem to be the perfect storm of timing for Apple to enter a completely new market. Perhaps they should buy MasterCard and revolutionize that company and the industry. I'm sure Tim is reading my words. Im not sure if you're serious or not but MA has a 100billion dollar market cap... Last I checked, Apple had $100 billion in pocket change.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 7:49:31 GMT -8
Why buy MasterCard when they can build something themselves for far cheaper?
It'd sure be nice if Apple did something new...it's been 4 years since the iPad, which was basically an extra large iPhone without the phone part. What are the engineers doing?
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Post by firestorm on Jan 23, 2014 7:56:00 GMT -8
Why buy MasterCard when they can build something themselves for far cheaper? It'd sure be nice if Apple did something new...it's been 4 years since the iPad, which was basically an extra large iPhone without the phone part. What are the engineers doing? Change is stressful, and we don't want the Apple engineers to be stressed. Meanwhile, Amazon and Google continue to roll out idea after idea; some successful and some not, but at least they have the appearance of challenging themselves. Meanwhile, we get bigger and smaller screens (and admittedly the most beautiful and reliable products).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 8:01:44 GMT -8
Agreed, I'm not saying Apple has to flood the market with crap every few months and hope something works, but nothing really new since the iPhone is a little old...and no, I don't count bigger, smaller, faster or thinner as something new. I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2014 8:16:43 GMT -8
Agreed, I'm not saying Apple has to flood the market with crap every few months and hope something works, but nothing really new since the iPhone is a little old...and no, I don't count bigger, smaller, faster or thinner as something new. I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient. Nothing really new since the iPhone? So you are totally discounting the iPad?
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Post by zzmac on Jan 23, 2014 8:18:14 GMT -8
This is the next big thing and they're going to sell a boatload of them. You won't have a good time until you buy one. It can't come soon enough. link
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 23, 2014 8:25:17 GMT -8
" I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient."
Ya think? Since Wall Street seems to have the collective patience and attention span of the average 6 year old with ADD that's to be expected. The tough thing for those of us long on the board here is we have to let this turnaround in earnings growth play out over 6 to 8 months after we have had our asses handed to us for 15 months or so. I still say we are right at the start of a great one or two year run ( perhaps the last one for a company of this size) but when you look at the stock daily or more often it's like torture.
Eric in Austin
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2014 8:31:55 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 8:34:38 GMT -8
Agreed, I'm not saying Apple has to flood the market with crap every few months and hope something works, but nothing really new since the iPhone is a little old...and no, I don't count bigger, smaller, faster or thinner as something new. I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient. Nothing really new since the iPhone? So you are totally discounting the iPad? It was a great selling product and I love mine, but it's not exactly a completely new product...it's an iPhone on steroids. Even if you count that, it's still 4 years since anything new
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 8:37:53 GMT -8
" I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient." Ya think? Since Wall Street seems to have the collective patience and attention span of the average 6 year old with ADD that's to be expected. The tough thing for those of us long on the board here is we have to let this turnaround in earnings growth play out over 6 to 8 months after we have had our asses handed to us for 15 months or so. I still say we are right at the start of a great one or two year run ( perhaps the last one for a company of this size) but when you look at the stock daily or more often it's like torture. Eric in Austin Ya I probably just need to stop watching the daily action...but if Apple reports in the low $14's, which a lot seem to be calling for, that's not really any growth and that's with Docomo and China in the quarter, which weren't in the same quarter last year. That's a bad sign for the next 6 to 9 months
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Post by Lstream on Jan 23, 2014 8:41:44 GMT -8
Why buy MasterCard when they can build something themselves for far cheaper? It'd sure be nice if Apple did something new...it's been 4 years since the iPad, which was basically an extra large iPhone without the phone part. What are the engineers doing? Nothing - new iPads just hatch themselves from old iPads. Same for iPhones. A6 processors give birth to A7 processors. All without any supervision. Fire the slackers.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 23, 2014 8:41:45 GMT -8
" I think everyone including Wall Street is getting a little impatient." Ya think? Since Wall Street seems to have the collective patience and attention span of the average 6 year old with ADD that's to be expected. The tough thing for those of us long on the board here is we have to let this turnaround in earnings growth play out over 6 to 8 months after we have had our asses handed to us for 15 months or so. I still say we are right at the start of a great one or two year run ( perhaps the last one for a company of this size) but when you look at the stock daily or more often it's like torture. Eric in Austin Ya I probably just need to stop watching the daily action...but if Apple reports in the low $14's, which a lot seem to be calling for, that's not really any growth and that's with Docomo and China in the quarter, which weren't in the same quarter last year. That's a bad sign for the next 6 to 9 months It is the guidance that will make or break us, and it would be nice if the guidance included the expected results from a revolutionary new product.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2014 8:51:00 GMT -8
Why buy MasterCard when they can build something themselves for far cheaper? It'd sure be nice if Apple did something new...it's been 4 years since the iPad, which was basically an extra large iPhone without the phone part. What are the engineers doing? Nothing - new iPads just hatch themselves from old iPads. Same for iPhones. A6 processors give birth to A7 processors. All without any supervision. Fire the slackers. Do they not have a team working on new products? Lots of far smaller companies release yearly updated CPU's or GPU's or Cameras...with the resources Apple has, they should be able to hire teams to work on completely new products. I don't think there's much YOY growth left in the iPhone or iPad. Or what growth will happen will get hurt by lower ASP
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