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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2014 3:56:34 GMT -8
Good morning ... AAPL earnings behind us, State of the Union jabber being dissected this morning, Turkey raised rates significantly, S&P futures up about 2, Dow up about 16 and AAPL +1.50 in PM ... at this wee hour of the morning. In tech world and social media YHOO under pressure from their earnings call (Alibaba slowdown) and FB I believe reports tonight (GOOG is tomorrow). Lots of confusion and finger pointing attributed to AAPL's descent yesterday and although I and many of you are not Cramer fans (he's long AAPL) - he had a fairly succinct overview of WS's reaction: 1. Management should have tempered expectations, and the bullish sentiment had gotten out of control - other CEO's put calls out to analysts to slow things down but AAPL never communicates ~ hence iPhone expectations got out of whack. 2. Carl Icahn is suggesting Apple do something with its cash, but management seems committed to a merely moderate buyback. There are CEO's that would have stated (and evidently have said similar things on Mad Money) that at (i.e.) $500, the company will be aggressively buying stock back....which would put a hard floor on the price while showing you stand by your company. 3. The momentum investors (MOMO traders) wanted to see new products from Apple. They didn't see any - they didn't hear a concrete discussion of any coming any time soon. It deflated momentum. 4. If Cook wanted to he probably could have made a statement as to why AAPL can still be a growth stock and point to future products (without naming what they are but showing strong confidence) 5. When the news came out on China Mobile, TC should have been clearer AT THAT TIME that it would be "smaller" initial launch but that the plan was to be in X amount of cities in China. Although AAPL may have thought everyone understood - clearly they did not and no clear time frame or plan was announced. Hence the stock dropped to where it was before the China Mobile announcement so "Yes, Virginia ... China Mobile potential continues NOT to be baked into AAPL's stock price (for the hopeful)." 6. TC's relationship with the street - as heard on the earnings call - is becoming contentious - which is never good thing. Since its quarter was viewed as tepid given all the above, Apple got dinged....but for the long term player, it's a bargain. Lots of things to debate above - it's too exhausting to even bother at this point. It is what it is and we need to stop looking back or else you can't move forward. I will say however that even when we saw the stock descend from it's highs of approximately $706 to it's most recent lows of approximately $385, I never felt the tone of this Board or our previous Board to sound so defeated. It will take time to reassess and re-engage but this too shall pass. I'll miss burgess...he was my early morning buddy and a delightful poster. Hope he continues to stay on for a bit longer. Enjoy your day. (FYI: Cramer's summary is on video from yesterday's segment of Mad Money but the above is fairly concise.) By the way, thought this write up was interesting - so were the comments. Titled "How Does Apple Get Its Mojo Back?" on Yahoo: celebrity.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/some-thoughts-about-apple-s-quarter-152924440.html
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Jan 29, 2014 4:55:53 GMT -8
Nice post phoebear... I agree with the need to re-engage and lift the tone of this board. There has been too much crap posted on this board of late and it is driving posters away. I have lurked for a long time.. It's been about a year since last posting.
I am super long AAPL and Apple. There is a good deal of substance in Apple and I don't feel it's done yet. This is my sentiment and sentiment is what counts.
Cheers the longs....
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Post by appledoc on Jan 29, 2014 5:04:31 GMT -8
Less than an inch of snow, now turned to ice, and my entire city is crippled. My hospital has to have the most pathetic disaster system in the country. Fucking unbelievable.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2014 5:05:29 GMT -8
The best I could say would be interesting. Yes the Robin Williams ads are idealized, but also inspirational and Apple does have ads that show personal use / utility. But OK point taken. Focus on the future??? And comparing Apple's skunkworks to Google Glass. No, when Google Glass gets to version 5 it will still be a creepy non starter. There are already dedicated heads up devices that focus on a market that are much better suited for their users... Say Skiers for instance. Diversify - see above, we know Apple works on new products and categories. They just don't do it on some arbitrary timeline but rather wait until they have a product they would be willing to sell and put Apple's name in it. Decisively move into payments I agree with , but it seems they are going that direction. Spend more cash in general ... When you are generating the gross margins that are the envy of the industry, pray tell mister author what would you have them invest in without lowering gross margins. Phoebear611, sorry I guess the mention of version 5 of Google Glass set me off.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2014 5:13:09 GMT -8
The best I could say would be interesting. Yes the Robin Williams ads are idealized, but also inspirational and Apple does have ads that show personal use / utility. But OK point taken. Focus on the future??? And comparing Apple's skunkworks to Google Glass. No, when Google Glass gets to version 5 it will still be a creepy non starter. There are already dedicated heads up devices that focus on a market that are much better suited for their users... Say Skiers for instance. Diversify - see above, we know Apple works on new products and categories. They just don't do it on some arbitrary timeline but rather wait until they have a product they would be willing to sell and put Apple's name in it. Decisively move into payments I agree with , but it seems they are going that direction. Spend more cash in general ... When you are generating the gross margins that are the envy of the industry, pray tell mister author what would you have them invest in without lowering gross margins. Phoebear611, sorry I guess the mention of version 5 of Google Glass set me off. Please - you are entitled to your opinion. Here's the one nerve this article hit for me which was ... I'm not 100% certain I know what TC's vision is here. Hail to secrecy but I need a vision and I'm not sure I know what it is other than growing current products. It's bothersome but many of you may feel that it's crystal clear. Not sure.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2014 5:17:18 GMT -8
Less than an inch of snow, now turned to ice, and my entire city is crippled. My hospital has to have the most pathetic disaster system in the country. Fucking unbelievable. You're in the "deep south" ... no way they would be prepared for this. People in upstate NY laugh at NYC when we're crippled over several inches of snow - they get multiple feet of snow and things run smoothly. Every area has some expectation of their normal weather patterns and prepares for several outcomes but this year has been crazy ... lots of anomalies in the weather or perhaps it's just what is to come as normal. The news coverage of Atlanta was pretty insane tho.
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 29, 2014 5:24:27 GMT -8
Here in Toronto, the first 1" of snow of the year always causes the most problems!
After that people change to winter tires.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2014 5:28:21 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 29, 2014 5:33:23 GMT -8
The best I could say would be interesting. Yes the Robin Williams ads are idealized, but also inspirational and Apple does have ads that show personal use / utility. But OK point taken. Focus on the future??? And comparing Apple's skunkworks to Google Glass. No, when Google Glass gets to version 5 it will still be a creepy non starter. There are already dedicated heads up devices that focus on a market that are much better suited for their users... Say Skiers for instance. Diversify - see above, we know Apple works on new products and categories. They just don't do it on some arbitrary timeline but rather wait until they have a product they would be willing to sell and put Apple's name in it. Decisively move into payments I agree with , but it seems they are going that direction.Spend more cash in general ... When you are generating the gross margins that are the envy of the industry, pray tell mister author what would you have them invest in without lowering gross margins. Phoebear611, sorry I guess the mention of version 5 of Google Glass set me off. Please - you are entitled to your opinion. Here's the one nerve this article hit for me which was ... I'm not 100% certain I know what TC's vision is here. Hail to secrecy but I need a vision and I'm not sure I know what it is other than growing current products. It's bothersome but many of you may feel that it's crystal clear. Not sure. I AGREE! Phil is the interactive editor at Yahoo! Finance. Formerly, he was the executive editor at StockTwits. He is a partner at Social Leverage, LLC and makes early stage investments in web based companies. He is obsessed with the psychosocial aspects of user experience and online community development. Phil ran a long/short equity hedge fund which focused on behavioral strategies and currently runs a private account. He began his trading career back in the day with a Datek account and an attitude. He has always loved to buy fear and sell euphoria. Phil earned a doctorate in clinical psychology from Argosy University and a BA in English from the University of Maryland. He lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York. I KNOW ONLINE IS THE FUTURE. BUT www.argosy.edu/locations/default.aspx
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Post by Lstream on Jan 29, 2014 5:43:19 GMT -8
The best I could say would be interesting. Yes the Robin Williams ads are idealized, but also inspirational and Apple does have ads that show personal use / utility. But OK point taken. Focus on the future??? And comparing Apple's skunkworks to Google Glass. No, when Google Glass gets to version 5 it will still be a creepy non starter. There are already dedicated heads up devices that focus on a market that are much better suited for their users... Say Skiers for instance. Diversify - see above, we know Apple works on new products and categories. They just don't do it on some arbitrary timeline but rather wait until they have a product they would be willing to sell and put Apple's name in it. Decisively move into payments I agree with , but it seems they are going that direction. Spend more cash in general ... When you are generating the gross margins that are the envy of the industry, pray tell mister author what would you have them invest in without lowering gross margins. Phoebear611, sorry I guess the mention of version 5 of Google Glass set me off. What to do with an author who makes one blazingly stupid and uninformed comment like he did with Google Glass? How can he be taken seriously once he puts that piece of idiocy into plain view? Regarding the defeated tone, I get it. Apple has flatlined and management communicates with tired and repetitive cliches. Refusing to paint any compelling vision or strategy for the business. What should we conclude? That they are reluctant and bad communicators or that they don't have anything complelling to say? They are content to let investors guess and make things up. It used to be that I urged everyone to buy this stock. The case was compelling and obvious. Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Today, I think I would tell people that they should wait and see if they want to own a part of this company. You should be able to wait while the stock is range bound, let the fog lift and maybe pay less later. Or maybe 10% more when it becomes clearer what managements long term plan is. Why buy now? I don't see a good reason.
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 29, 2014 5:53:40 GMT -8
Likewise, the first Apple report of the year causes the most consternation.
I have no position right now. I'll wait out for a little bit.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2014 6:03:55 GMT -8
Agreed - the GOOG glass comments were ridiculous - but again, some of the comments were thought-provoking in the sense that I'm not clear (once I was prompted to reflect) on the vision....or as was stated above....a bit too much fog at the moment...need to see a bit of clarity as well.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 29, 2014 6:36:06 GMT -8
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Post by appleaddict on Jan 29, 2014 6:48:16 GMT -8
Regarding the defeated tone, I get it. Apple has flatlined and management communicates with tired and repetitive cliches. Refusing to paint any compelling vision or strategy for the business. What should we conclude? That they are reluctant and bad communicators or that they don't have anything complelling to say? They are content to let investors guess and make things up. It used to be that I urged everyone to buy this stock. The case was compelling and obvious. Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Today, I think I would tell people that they should wait and see if they want to own a part of this company. You should be able to wait while the stock is range bound, let the fog lift and maybe pay less later. Or maybe 10% more when it becomes clearer what managements long term plan is. Why buy now? I don't see a good reason. Agree with you completely. Having used the Mac since 1986, and having owned the stock since 2001, I have always bought more shares when I could, and told everyone they should too. Not any more. In fact, yesterday I talked a friend out of buying shares after pushing him for two years to do just that. When management completely ignores the shareholders, who in many cases seem to be long-time customers as well, it is a slap in the face. And when they can't—or won't—communicate any plans for excess cash or any future product potential, it is time to reassess why you would invest in such a company. Reminds me of a quote from Bruce Springsteen, “Blind faith in your leaders, or in anything, will get you killed.” [/quote]
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Post by greedynoob on Jan 29, 2014 7:03:10 GMT -8
Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Well, in the shorter term, in other words the next quarter, we know almost exactly what the company's performance will be ;-) EDIT: By "next quarter" I meant the "quarter after the just-concluded earnings report", in other words "this quarter". I really should not be allowed to post so early in the morning. (Nor trade, I sometimes think!)
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Post by Lstream on Jan 29, 2014 7:13:07 GMT -8
Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Well, in the shorter term, in other words the next quarter, we know almost exactly what the company's performance will be ;-) EDIT: By "next quarter" I meant the "quarter after the just-concluded earnings report", in other words "this quarter". I really should not be allowed to post so early in the morning. (Nor trade, I sometimes think!) I have a longer time horizon than the next quarter.
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2014 7:22:40 GMT -8
RE: AAPL set top TV
It would sell and help. But how many units and what ASP would be required to really make a growth dent for aapl? I think they are interested in a completed solution (flat panel) included because it's ASP would be a lot higher and margins fatter then a set top unit. It's 99 as is. With a router built in/cable coax set plug in/dvr flash drive/game console - what's the unit cost going to be for this? AirPort Extreme is 199. Apple TV is 99. Flash drive on it? All in the cloud? 400?
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 29, 2014 7:22:52 GMT -8
I agree the yahoo piece was mostly on point and raised all of the logical problems and fears playing the company perception, and also the reality of where we are in the market cycle for Apple. They've had 2 unbelievable slam dunks - iPhone, iPad.
How about THIS for a hail Mary wishful thinking from a tired but dedicated long..? Apple release a killer spot on the super bowl Sunday, to commemorate the 1984 spot, and TEASES their NEW product (iTV, iWATCH) etc? I know this just won't happen, but it's fun to ponder what THAT would do for investor and apple loyal fan excitement (which we definitely have precious little of these days).
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 29, 2014 7:28:39 GMT -8
Regarding the defeated tone, I get it. Apple has flatlined and management communicates with tired and repetitive cliches. Refusing to paint any compelling vision or strategy for the business. What should we conclude? That they are reluctant and bad communicators or that they don't have anything complelling to say? They are content to let investors guess and make things up. It used to be that I urged everyone to buy this stock. The case was compelling and obvious. Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Today, I think I would tell people that they should wait and see if they want to own a part of this company. You should be able to wait while the stock is range bound, let the fog lift and maybe pay less later. Or maybe 10% more when it becomes clearer what managements long term plan is. Why buy now? I don't see a good reason. Agree with you completely. Having used the Mac since 1986, and having owned the stock since 2001, I have always bought more shares when I could, and told everyone they should too. Not any more. In fact, yesterday I talked a friend out of buying shares after pushing him for two years to do just that. When management completely ignores the shareholders, who in many cases seem to be long-time customers as well, it is a slap in the face. And when they can't—or won't—communicate any plans for excess cash or any future product potential, it is time to reassess why you would invest in such a company. Reminds me of a quote from Bruce Springsteen, “Blind faith in your leaders, or in anything, will get you killed.” [/quote] I'm sorry, but when did Apple ever explain itself or communicate with shareholders? What has changed exactly? It used to be obvious, wrote Lstream, that AAPL was on track, but hasn't Apple always only communicated via the products it sells? Phones, upon which Apple is over-reliant, are slowing down; iPods are toast. All can see that. Meanwhile, Apple is doing what it's always done: work hard on their next big thing in total secrecy. Yes, everyone wants them to sell a new product because that's what we all expect ever since the iPhone and iPad came out, but there's no surprise that they don't just come up with a finished product because the public and pundits want one. Everyone is totally impatient in this fast moving world, but, remember, Apple told us to chill out last year when they put out that nice video about things taking time, a thousand 'no's' for every yes, etc. Yes, it stinks that more phones weren't sold, that Apple's brass does a shitty job of communicating, etc, but all the talk of the situation having changed is puzzling for me. Now the faithful, us, are fed up too. We were patient investors for a year during an extreme downdraft, but now that we got our hopes up and dashed yet again we're done. Well, I'm not and I'm giving the company another year to impress us all. What has changed again? Competition is better. The smartphone market is slowing? And as always Apple is working on its next big thing...
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2014 7:32:34 GMT -8
The best I could say would be interesting. Yes the Robin Williams ads are idealized, but also inspirational and Apple does have ads that show personal use / utility. But OK point taken. Focus on the future??? And comparing Apple's skunkworks to Google Glass. No, when Google Glass gets to version 5 it will still be a creepy non starter. There are already dedicated heads up devices that focus on a market that are much better suited for their users... Say Skiers for instance. Diversify - see above, we know Apple works on new products and categories. They just don't do it on some arbitrary timeline but rather wait until they have a product they would be willing to sell and put Apple's name in it. Decisively move into payments I agree with , but it seems they are going that direction. Spend more cash in general ... When you are generating the gross margins that are the envy of the industry, pray tell mister author what would you have them invest in without lowering gross margins. Phoebear611, sorry I guess the mention of version 5 of Google Glass set me off. Please - you are entitled to your opinion. Here's the one nerve this article hit for me which was ... I'm not 100% certain I know what TC's vision is here. Hail to secrecy but I need a vision and I'm not sure I know what it is other than growing current products. It's bothersome but many of you may feel that it's crystal clear. Not sure. I agree with you about "I'm not 100% certain I know what TC's vision is here." Apple has always been secretive about future products and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Maybe sometime in the future, who knows.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2014 7:34:56 GMT -8
Now it is like looking into a thick fog where we are forced to guess if the future story will be powerful enough to invest. Well, in the shorter term, in other words the next quarter, we know almost exactly what the company's performance will be ;-) EDIT: By "next quarter" I meant the "quarter after the just-concluded earnings report", in other words "this quarter". I really should not be allowed to post so early in the morning. (Nor trade, I sometimes think!) Actually, I didn't say that, but agree with it and your comment.
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Post by greedynoob on Jan 29, 2014 7:42:50 GMT -8
...What has changed exactly? It used to be obvious, wrote Lstream, that AAPL was on track, but hasn't Apple always only communicated via the products it sells? About a year after the iPhone shipped, it became pretty clear, to anyone who was willing to open their eyes & see, what was going to happen with Apple's sales for at least the next year or two. By the first quarter after the iPad shipped, it was also pretty clear. Some old-timers got used to that, while people who started investing in that time-frame probably thought of it as normal. Well, it wasn't. It was an anomaly for Apple. Now we're back to normal: healthy sales of existing products, with no idea when the next big thing will come nor how big it will really be.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 29, 2014 7:47:59 GMT -8
Trading This stock is a disease
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 29, 2014 7:49:37 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jan 29, 2014 7:55:04 GMT -8
I'm sorry, but when did Apple ever explain itself or communicate with shareholders? What has changed exactly? It used to be obvious, wrote Lstream, that AAPL was on track, but hasn't Apple always only communicated via the products it sells? Phones, upon which Apple is over-reliant, are slowing down; iPods are toast. All can see that. Meanwhile, Apple is doing what it's always done: work hard on their next big thing in total secrecy. Yes, everyone wants them to sell a new product because that's what we all expect ever since the iPhone and iPad came out, but there's no surprise that they don't just come up with a finished product because the public and pundits want one. Everyone is totally impatient in this fast moving world, but, remember, Apple told us to chill out last year when they put out that nice video about things taking time, a thousand 'no's' for every yes, etc. Yes, it stinks that more phones weren't sold, that Apple's brass does a shitty job of communicating, etc, but all the talk of the situation having changed is puzzling for me. Now the faithful, us, are fed up too. We were patient investors for a year during an extreme downdraft, but now that we got our hopes up and dashed yet again we're done. Well, I'm not and I'm giving the company another year to impress us all. What has changed again? Competition is better. The smartphone market is slowing? And as always Apple is working on its next big thing... What has changed for me is that overall financial performance has flatlined. Apple got a free pass from me in the past because the numbers did the talking. They still talk, but the paint a picture of a stalled company. Apple as a stalled company is entirely new for me. Q2 guidance is a real eye opener for me regarding that reality. Stalled company plus refusal to tell shareholders they care plus refusal to paint ANY vision for the business that can renew growth, all says to me: WHY BUY NOW? Waiting feels like the best approach. In over ten years as an Apple shareholder I have never believed that waiting was the best strategy for investors looking to invest in this company. Now I do, and until the company convinces me that it gives a damn about long term loyal shareholders who are twisting in the wind, I expect to have the same opinion. EDIT: Also, management being thrilled with flat results is also a change/revelation to me. What management team is "thrilled" with that. Fat and happy ones that have so much cash they can do anything they feel like?
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Jan 29, 2014 7:55:38 GMT -8
I now have polar opposite views of Apple and AAPL.
I remain 100% bullish about Apple, the company. Amazing ecosystem, brand, customer loyalty, cash generation, balance sheet, monetization potential, etc.
But I am bearish on AAPL the stock for the next year, and maybe multiple years. The ironic thing, AAPL is a victim of its own success. It grew so crazily fast, with such astounding margins and profitability, that it now finds itself in a situation where it is hard to maintain that high level, let alone grow it. So many large new carriers came on board recently, and the iPad, Mac and related revenue producers are doing so well, yet the top line and bottom line are flat.
What happens when things don't go so well??
I could make a case that Apple should reduce iPhone prices to go for expansion of the base at the expense of margin. Apple doesn't need a quarter of the cash it generates! But it can't go for growth the way Amazon can because Apple needs to do everything it can to prop up margin so that its share price does not tank.
This is not where I want my money for the foreseeable future.
But the company itself has an incredibly bright future, which could be even brighter if it plays for the future, rather than the quarter or year.
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Post by zzmac on Jan 29, 2014 8:06:10 GMT -8
Their disdain for their shareholders is clear. The discussion should be what are their plans for all their billions. And if they go private down the road we'll then understand how great their disdain was.
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Post by The Big Toe on Jan 29, 2014 9:06:57 GMT -8
Tim Cook has earned some loss in faith from AAPL shareholders (at least this one). He has alluded in the past about new product catagories to only bring out updated products. When Jobs passed away, we were told that Apple has 5 years of products in developement. So far we have seen two years of updates. The onus is on Tim Cook and the management team to prove that they are still a company that can develope new product catagories. I am not sure a "swing-and-a-miss" would be worse on the stock vs not bringing any products out until it is "prefect".
As far as the cash, I too think that something needs to be done. When 25 to 30% of the stock value is in cash, then that significantly impacts the price multiple. Unless they are able to get a better return on their investments (higher than AAPL price multiple) vs investing in AAPL, they should really ramp up the buyback program.
I am still an AAPL bull... just a little more sceptical.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 29, 2014 9:19:12 GMT -8
There is a good article on MacRumors about how iOS in the Car is a troubled initiative, with a lack of support from Apple management. Is Apple going to cede the car to Google?
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2014 10:12:42 GMT -8
1-No new categories in the current quarter 2-Increased sales from China Mobile, NTT Docomo and any additional carriers may cover decreased sales in the US. 3-AAPL is under serious threat to tank this quarter. Will we see a P/E around 10 again?
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