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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 6, 2014 3:22:50 GMT -8
Good Morning~
Futures up slightly ... Ukraine and Russia continue to be in the news (and will be for weeks/months) ... no news out that hasn't already been discussed on this Board on AAPL ... looks a bit higher on virtually no volume. I have been reading a few TA and EW type blogs/boards and there seems to be an overwhelming feeling that AAPL is trading as if something is about to be announced or happen. No one seems to clarify what a chart that implies a news announcement looks like but these sites that have no relation to one another are coming to the same conclusions. Not sure I understand what that means but thought I would share with the group. If anyone wants to shed some light on this thought, feel free. Otherwise, enjoy the day!
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Post by nagrani on Mar 6, 2014 6:27:22 GMT -8
Well, the evidence is mounting and there are some obvious things coming Given: Apple is going to open its purse again in the next few weeks. Apple is going to have WWDC - new iOS and new iphone following Spec This has been the longest period (that I can think of) where apple hasn't had a new product announcement. Apple store displays are empty - something around the corner? Apple execs just got a shit load of options worth 19 million each. Probably timed with new product to avoid the bs in the media. Going conference Next week and some iOS controllers will be announced but cannot before - why??? Not sure Apple loving former wsj writer is coming out with her book. I bet Tim would love to time a new product to coincide with the launch of that book. That would be hilarious.
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Post by BillH on Mar 6, 2014 7:07:50 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 6, 2014 7:28:16 GMT -8
OTOH:
IMHO:
AAPL MAY stay in a certain tight trading pattern for AT LEAST the next 60 days....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 7:28:50 GMT -8
Well, the evidence is mounting and there are some obvious things coming Given: Apple is going to open its purse again in the next few weeks. Apple is going to have WWDC - new iOS and new iphone following Spec This has been the longest period (that I can think of) where apple hasn't had a new product announcement. Apple store displays are empty - something around the corner? Apple execs just got a shit load of options worth 19 million each. Probably timed with new product to avoid the bs in the media. Going conference Next week and some iOS controllers will be announced but cannot before - why??? Not sure Apple loving former wsj writer is coming out with her book. I bet Tim would love to time a new product to coincide with the launch of that book. That would be hilarious. Anyone else tired of the Apple execs getting stock options worth tens of millions every year while the stock does nothing for 2 years?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 7:35:36 GMT -8
Air traffic control to AAPL Air: You can use any runway under 535.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 6, 2014 7:40:53 GMT -8
OPPIE will stay until September to get $53 million bonus. Mark & I use to argue with DT back in 2008..... This is nothing new.
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Post by incorrigible on Mar 6, 2014 8:05:18 GMT -8
IMHO, with max pain @ $530 or so, that'll be where we land tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 8:14:47 GMT -8
OPPIE will stay until September to get $53 million bonus. Mark & I use to argue with DT back in 2008..... This is nothing new. I agree it's nothing new...but I was more OK with 10's of Millions of stock given out when Apple was going up 20 - 30% or more every year...perhaps their pay should be tied to stock performance, at least at the high levels, and then maybe they'd be a little more receptive to Shareholders.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Mar 6, 2014 8:32:58 GMT -8
OPPIE will stay until September to get $53 million bonus. Mark & I use to argue with DT back in 2008..... This is nothing new. I agree it's nothing new...but I was more OK with 10's of Millions of stock given out when Apple was going up 20 - 30% or more every year...perhaps their pay should be tied to stock performance, at least at the high levels, and then maybe they'd be a little more receptive to Shareholders. The shares are tied to performance vs. the S&P500....for Tim at least and maybe all of the senior executive.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 8:53:24 GMT -8
I agree it's nothing new...but I was more OK with 10's of Millions of stock given out when Apple was going up 20 - 30% or more every year...perhaps their pay should be tied to stock performance, at least at the high levels, and then maybe they'd be a little more receptive to Shareholders. The shares are tied to performance vs. the S&P500....for Tim at least and maybe all of the senior executive. Nope, I believe it's only Tim and he changed this himself after Apple fell down to the high 300's last year.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 11:04:25 GMT -8
IMHO, with max pain @ $530 or so, that'll be where we land tomorrow. Well, I DID say $529 on Tuesday and that is less than $535. The open interest has moved a bit since Tuesday but regardless, the fix is in. At some point, the weekly people will fold on this stock, and the rest of us will dismantle the tractor beam.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 11:21:11 GMT -8
IMHO, with max pain @ $530 or so, that'll be where we land tomorrow. Well, I DID say $529 on Tuesday and that is less than $535. The open interest has moved a bit since Tuesday but regardless, the fix is in. At some point, the weekly people will fold on this stock, and the rest of us will dismantle the tractor beam. Not that options are helping, but do you really think without weekly options that we'd be significantly higher? What reason is there to have a much higher PE when Net Income has been shrinking for 6 quarters with no signs of stopping?
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Post by BillH on Mar 6, 2014 11:29:01 GMT -8
OPPIE will stay until September to get $53 million bonus. Mark & I use to argue with DT back in 2008..... This is nothing new. I agree it's nothing new...but I was more OK with 10's of Millions of stock given out when Apple was going up 20 - 30% or more every year...perhaps their pay should be tied to stock performance, at least at the high levels, and then maybe they'd be a little more receptive to Shareholders. They don't give them stock for past performance (nor future for that matter) but to persuade them not to seek employment elsewhere.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 11:40:46 GMT -8
I agree it's nothing new...but I was more OK with 10's of Millions of stock given out when Apple was going up 20 - 30% or more every year...perhaps their pay should be tied to stock performance, at least at the high levels, and then maybe they'd be a little more receptive to Shareholders. They don't give them stock for past performance (nor future for that matter) but to persuade them not to seek employment elsewhere. How do you know whether it's just not better to let people leave if you're not valuing them on past or future performance? What if it'd be better to just let people seek employment elsewhere? Tim Cook makes roughly 50M/year with his options...if his past or future performance indicates he's worth more than that, pay him...if you believe you can find someone to do an equal or better job for less, let him seek employment elsewhere. You have to pay people based on their value to your company, not what another company might value him at.
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Post by mace on Mar 6, 2014 11:54:48 GMT -8
You have to pay people based on their value to your company, not what another company might value him at. A thought exercise: How much damage has the departure of Ron Johnston caused? What about Scott Forestall? Have these two departures contribute to the dismal performance in 2013? What do you think employees are thinking after the high profile $3.2B sale of Nest to Google?
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Mar 6, 2014 11:58:18 GMT -8
They don't give them stock for past performance (nor future for that matter) but to persuade them not to seek employment elsewhere. How do you know whether it's just not better to let people leave if you're not valuing them on past or future performance? What if it'd be better to just let people seek employment elsewhere? Tim Cook makes roughly 50M/year with his options...if his past or future performance indicates he's worth more than that, pay him...if you believe you can find someone to do an equal or better job for less, let him seek employment elsewhere. You have to pay people based on their value to your company, not what another company might value him at. Most of the research I saw when I studied compensation theory pointed to money (whether salary or stock) as being a de-motivator, not a motivator. Here is an article that points to some other papers www.payscale.com/career-news/2013/05/money-the-great-demotivator-While the idea of stock based compensation sounds great, every employee knows that they only have a very insignificant effect on the stock price. With Apple that would be even more distant since there is little correlation between the stock value and the fundamentals. Money is sometimes referred to as a hygienic factor, meaning that like hygiene it is problem if it is neglected. This is not to say that we don't care about it, just that is difficult to use it to motivate. The exception to this would be employees who are paid solely on a piecework basis or a 100% commission salesman.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 6, 2014 12:11:12 GMT -8
Well, another Thursday, another order of AAPL puts proceeding nicely. Also long GOOG and PCLN calls. Thanks for that dip, Putin. What a weird, F'd up market when I am long the companies I don't really believe in fundamentally, and short the one I (largely) do. But don't fight the tape. Or the pain. BTW, amazing how we lament the "low" volume of AAPL, but it is like 3-5X GOOG's and over 15X PCLN's. And my, aren't those stocks doing well? PCLN hit an ATIH today. ************** And I have no problems with stockholders questioning executive compensation. I just don't want government or outside rabble-rousers doing it. OTOH, there's the downside of limiting compensation; it's hard to imagine a pay package I'd be unhappy with to retain Jony Ive. So stockholders need to be thoughtful about reigning in pay, especially considering the cash flow Apple has. Maybe it's worth extravagant salaries for replaceable execs, just to have the flexibility to compensate the irreplaceable ones. Here's to the irreplaceable ones.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 12:16:59 GMT -8
You have to pay people based on their value to your company, not what another company might value him at. A thought exercise: How much damage has the departure of Ron Johnston caused? What about Scott Forestall? Have these two departures contribute to the dismal performance in 2013? What do you think employees are thinking after the high profile $3.2B sale of Nest to Google? I have no idea on the inner workings of the company...but it's not like Ron Johnson had great success with JCP. Perhaps they didn't work well with other more valuable members of the company? I really have no idea. If people are extremely valuable to Apple, pay them well. But pay them in stock and tie it to stock performance. Obviously not for Joe Engineer, but for anyone making the kind of money I'm talking about (Millions), it should be tied to company stock performance IMHO. I like Tim's contract...where he gets more options the better Apple's stock performance is. That's how it should be. I'm OK with him making 50M/year if Apple is in the top 1/3 of performing stocks this year.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 6, 2014 12:27:48 GMT -8
hmmm
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 6, 2014 13:25:35 GMT -8
slow day 6 million
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Post by BillH on Mar 6, 2014 13:29:19 GMT -8
How do you know whether it's just not better to let people leave if you're not valuing them on past or future performance? What if it'd be better to just let people seek employment elsewhere? Tim Cook makes roughly 50M/year with his options...if his past or future performance indicates he's worth more than that, pay him...if you believe you can find someone to do an equal or better job for less, let him seek employment elsewhere. You have to pay people based on their value to your company, not what another company might value him at. Most of the research I saw when I studied compensation theory pointed to money (whether salary or stock) as being a de-motivator, not a motivator. Here is an article that points to some other papers www.payscale.com/career-news/2013/05/money-the-great-demotivator-While the idea of stock based compensation sounds great, every employee knows that they only have a very insignificant effect on the stock price. With Apple that would be even more distant since there is little correlation between the stock value and the fundamentals. Money is sometimes referred to as a hygienic factor, meaning that like hygiene it is problem if it is neglected. This is not to say that we don't care about it, just that is difficult to use it to motivate. The exception to this would be employees who are paid solely on a piecework basis or a 100% commission salesman. This one covers a lot of territory. Why everyone hates Apple, why compensation offers don't always work, (Billy stayed in Oakland), and is just plain fun to watch. People that perform, do so with or without the money. They can't help themselves. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjf1O4jMqeMFor what it's worth, Ron was a former neighbor that's about as nice a guy as you'll ever meet. Smart too. He let my daughter (when she was a graduating senior in HS) live with them and follow him around for a few weeks as her May term project. This was in the early days when they were developing the stores. Clearly I have a bias but my take on his days at JCP is that the Board failed him and we'll never know about vice versa. No one...,NO ONE...,turns that size of ship around in a couple of years.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 6, 2014 15:14:04 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 6, 2014 15:25:52 GMT -8
Most of the research I saw when I studied compensation theory pointed to money (whether salary or stock) as being a de-motivator, not a motivator. Here is an article that points to some other papers www.payscale.com/career-news/2013/05/money-the-great-demotivator-While the idea of stock based compensation sounds great, every employee knows that they only have a very insignificant effect on the stock price. With Apple that would be even more distant since there is little correlation between the stock value and the fundamentals. Money is sometimes referred to as a hygienic factor, meaning that like hygiene it is problem if it is neglected. This is not to say that we don't care about it, just that is difficult to use it to motivate. The exception to this would be employees who are paid solely on a piecework basis or a 100% commission salesman. This one covers a lot of territory. Why everyone hates Apple, why compensation offers don't always work, (Billy stayed in Oakland), and is just plain fun to watch. People that perform, do so with or without the money. They can't help themselves. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjf1O4jMqeMFor what it's worth, Ron was a former neighbor that's about as nice a guy as you'll ever meet. Smart too. He let my daughter (when she was a graduating senior in HS) live with them and follow him around for a few weeks as her May term project. This was in the early days when they were developing the stores. Clearly I have a bias but my take on his days at JCP is that the Board failed him and we'll never know about vice versa. No one...,NO ONE...,turns that size of ship around in a couple of years. Sometimes it's just a square peg in a round hole, even if it's the most awesome square peg ever. Michael Jordan was just an decent minor league baseball player (20 years ago this week). That little diversion probably cost him two NBA titles and millions. But he's doing OK. At 51, Jordan made like $60M last year. Hell, even very successful college basketball coaches have trouble transitioning to the NBA level. Going from Apple to JC Penney is more like another sport. Or maybe going down a level. Or maybe like Sully Sullenberger trying to save the Titanic. Sometimes people's egos just get the best of them. That's one interesting thing about Ahrendts; she went the other way...
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 6, 2014 15:44:21 GMT -8
I seem to recall that Ahrendts starts in the spring....does anyone recall when she is scheduled to land in the AAPL orchard?
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