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Post by appledoc on Mar 19, 2014 1:59:21 GMT -8
Breakout is coming one way or the other. BB compression is reaching its limit. I vote up. Hopefully yesterday wasn't a fake out.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 19, 2014 2:10:14 GMT -8
I don't know if you have noticed doc but every time you open the day, we are up ~ I've noticed it all too well. So I will assume we are going higher.
Europe was mixed last night ... our futures are slightly higher. Don't forget Fed Decision today at 2:00 ET - press conference should go on at 2:30 ET
One last thing - and please someone confirm this because it has been moved on occasion - CHL should report earnings tonight. I don't know if they will say anything about AAPL this quarter but they very well may. Just FYI. Again, if anyone can confirm this I would be very appreciative.
Lastly, AAPL Kermit the Frog green as of right now in PM. Enjoy the day.
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Post by macwire on Mar 19, 2014 2:35:44 GMT -8
Fed day. Ignore the fear mongrering. What the markets want over anything is clarity IMO.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 19, 2014 4:50:37 GMT -8
Just in from twitter:
Katy Huberty out saying iPhone demand running ahead of Cons - based on AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker sell-through data...
Wow!
What will they say next?
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Post by elmar on Mar 19, 2014 4:56:51 GMT -8
Just in from twitter: Katy Huberty out saying iPhone demand running ahead of Cons - based on AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker sell-through data...
Wow! What will they say next? Here is a link for this: Businessinsider
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Post by Lstream on Mar 19, 2014 5:06:54 GMT -8
Just in from twitter: Katy Huberty out saying iPhone demand running ahead of Cons - based on AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker sell-through data...
Wow! What will they say next? Here is a link for this: BusinessinsiderOr if you choose not to reward the scumbags at BI with a page hit, here is an AppleInsider link.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 19, 2014 6:23:39 GMT -8
I'll start believing AAPL isn't in eternal rangebound heck if it can hold 535, break 540. Still waiting..
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 19, 2014 7:03:47 GMT -8
Looks like $540 and the world wants to short it there. Would love for it to break that level and screw some of these shorts but we'll see.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 19, 2014 8:02:31 GMT -8
I have a question for my esteemed cohorts here who delve in to the mysterious world of TA. It seems to me that it would be an interesting exercise to take a chart and analyze everything except the last week of data. That is, pretend it was a week ago ( or some suitable time period ) and use your techniques to predict the performance of the stock over the upcoming time period. It would probably be best to cover the recent data to not introduce bias. Do this for a reasonable number of samples and then see how you did.
I find that most if not all of my bright ideas have already been thought of and are well known, so my question is, is anyone aware of a paper publishing the results of this kind of experiment? This seems way to obvious to not have been tried
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Post by Lstream on Mar 19, 2014 8:17:45 GMT -8
I have a question for my esteemed cohorts here who delve in to the mysterious world of TA. It seems to me that it would be an interesting exercise to take a chart and analyze everything except the last week of data. That is, pretend it was a week ago ( or some suitable time period ) and use your techniques to predict the performance of the stock over the upcoming time period. It would probably be best to cover the recent data to not introduce bias. Do this for a reasonable number of samples and then see how you did. I find that most if not all of my bright ideas have already been thought of and are well known, so my question is, is anyone aware of a paper publishing the results of this kind of experiment? This seems way to obvious to not have been tried What you are doing there is testing the predictive nature of the various techniques. The TA people here say they don't use the methodology for predictive purposes, but more for some kind of IF THEN ELSE technique. What you have proposed has been done over and over by the academics studying TA with solid methodology. The evidence is conclusive that there is no predictive ability in these tools that overcomes transaction costs. Flame suit on.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 19, 2014 8:23:34 GMT -8
Could you point me toward some of the better known academic studies?
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Post by zzmac on Mar 19, 2014 9:09:30 GMT -8
Could you point me toward some of the better known academic studies? They're at the post aaaaaand they're off!
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Post by Lstream on Mar 19, 2014 9:31:14 GMT -8
Could you point me toward some of the better known academic studies? I had posted a few over at the old AFB, which I guess are now long gone. It might take me a while to find them again.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 19, 2014 9:51:51 GMT -8
Could you point me toward some of the better known academic studies? Here is one I posted way back then. Download the PDF. It contains a lot of references that can be used to locate other studies as well. The abstract: The last time I posted these, I was told by several people that these studies didn't apply to them and that you had to be a trader to understand.
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Post by rickag on Mar 19, 2014 11:14:05 GMT -8
What the hell happened, did we declare war on Russia
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 19, 2014 12:01:32 GMT -8
What the hell happened, did we declare war on Russia Wednesday afternoon in monthly OpEx week, with a 530 call wall.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 19, 2014 12:25:59 GMT -8
That and the market doesn't like tapering, not today anyway Another one of those quick drops/halfway rebounds near the end of the day to mess with market participants.
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Post by lucy on Mar 19, 2014 12:28:41 GMT -8
A few comments about TA from Greg Harmon
4. What would you say is the number one misconception about technical analysis? Are there critics and devotees of fundamental analysis who are using some elements of technical analysis without even realizing it?
This one is easy. Most traders or investors that criticize technical analysis do so because they assume that the result of the analysis is a roadmap, a direction with certainty. It is nothing of the sort. Technical analysis is about the possibility. Technical analysts and traders will draw all sorts of lines and spout off support and resistance levels that appear to be full of certainty. Their analysis is not about identifying points of certainty but rather points of reflection, where price history has shown a price level important and so might make it important again. Might. Technical analysis encompasses many different styles of analysis. Pattern recognition gets the most attention but things like sentiment measures, quantitative analysis and seasonality are also part of technical analysis. “Sell in May and go away” has technical analysis at its roots. Technical analysis is really just the study of supply and demand for securities. If more fundamentally bent analysts understood it this way there would likely be much greater acceptance.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 19, 2014 14:01:46 GMT -8
Lucy, I think that fundamentally, I am bent. Given that any prediction comes with some uncertainty, I don't see how TA can be solely about reflection without some concern about predictability. To describe TA as only being concerned with the patterns is like saying that a weatherman studies the movement of fronts to find out if it rained yesterday. I realize that TA is the study of supply and demand, as well as the study of mass psychology. My concern is not why they do it, or how they do it. I just wanted to know if anyone had done studies of how well it worked and suggested a possible way to investigate it. Thank to Lstream for the direction. Is this the paper you were quoting? www.moving-averages.technicalanalysis.org.uk/DeGr01.pdfas I dig into this, it appears that quite a bit of work has been done along these lines. I should re-emerge from this rabbit hole sometime in the fall.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 19, 2014 14:38:15 GMT -8
Lucy, I think that fundamentally, I am bent. Given that any prediction comes with some uncertainty, I don't see how TA can be solely about reflection without some concern about predictability. To describe TA as only being concerned with the patterns is like saying that a weatherman studies the movement of fronts to find out if it rained yesterday. I realize that TA is the study of supply and demand, as well as the study of mass psychology. My concern is not why they do it, or how they do it. I just wanted to know if anyone had done studies of how well it worked and suggested a possible way to investigate it. Thank to Lstream for the direction. Is this the paper you were quoting? www.moving-averages.technicalanalysis.org.uk/DeGr01.pdfas I dig into this, it appears that quite a bit of work has been done along these lines. I should re-emerge from this rabbit hole sometime in the fall. No, if you click that link I gave you should get to an abstract. On that page click "Download this Paper" above the abstract. The paper is called "Technical Analysis Around the World"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 20:39:16 GMT -8
Not to encourage the weekly call *buyer* losers, but it looks like there's a decent chance for AAPL to close at 534.97 on Friday, the market willing. $530 strike slightly favors a close above that strike.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 21:47:09 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 19, 2014 22:59:56 GMT -8
WOOHOO FLAPPY BIRD (I actually kept it on my iPhone)
Close to 535 by Friday would be a victory of sorts, I guess. We've seen volatility remain very low in AAPL a bit longer than "expected" recently.
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