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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 20, 2014 2:04:45 GMT -8
Good morning and Happy Spring...Let's hope the new season brings sunshine that not only pops flowers but fruit stock too!
Asian markets mixed to down...European markets down at this moment...all on Yellen's comments that the Fed will at some point raise rates in 2015 however her words let folks to believe it would be a few months earlier than anticipated even though she vehemently stated that it is all data dependent and nothing is set in stone. There was really no huge surprises or ANY surprises for that matter. I'm beginning to think that the market is the group of boys (yes, it was ALWAYS BOYS, sorry fellas) that used to sit in the back of the class that never listened and always caused a ruckus. They made it bad for everyone else because the whole class got punished. Often the market sells off sharply because there are algorithms that pick up certain words from a speech and then set HFT sell programs into motion. The quick dip -200 points yesterday sure felt like that but who knows.
Meanwhile today on the Economic Calendar: Jobless Claims at 8:30 am and Existing Home Sales/Philly Fed / Leading Indicators are all at 10:00 am (ET)
On AAPL: not finding anything in the news this morning but sure wish they had a product we could hear about. Will they ever put out a payment system? iWatch - iTV - i ANYTHING! Has Ahrendts arrived yet? If so, any exciting words from her. Gimme something positive for the love of Pete!
In PM - looks like AAPL is red on basically no shares...just air.
Enjoy the day.
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Post by The Big Toe on Mar 20, 2014 3:05:40 GMT -8
It should be a light day of trading due to the beginning of the NCAA basketball tournament. You know us bad boys sitting in the back of the class gotsa watch some roundball.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2014 4:42:29 GMT -8
darn.... China Mobile iPhone Sales China Mobile will definitely give Apple an iPhone sales boost this year although it might not be as big a boost as many had anticipated. Per 9to5Mac, China Mobile said that it sold 1.34 million 4G phones over the lats month and that “most of them” were iPhones. Well-informed anonymous Apple observer @sammywalrusiv chimes in to say that this likely means China Mobile sold just over 1 million iPhones on the quarter, a number that he says is “trending near bottom of [the] expectation range for the year” and is “decent, not wow.” China Mobile is the largest single mobile carrier in the world with 750 million subscribers and it’s seen as a key for helping Apple expand its iPhone empire into the world’s most populous nation. bgr.com/2014/03/20/china-mobile-iphone-sales/
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Post by appleaddict on Mar 20, 2014 4:43:57 GMT -8
China Mobile had its first annual profit drop 14 years. Obviously this was caused by adding Apple's iPhone to the line-up. www.cnbc.com/id/101509763
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 5:14:14 GMT -8
Those are terrible numbers...werent people expecting 20M iphones per year? 1M in a month right at the beginning is a terrible sign
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Post by gvsmitty19 on Mar 20, 2014 5:26:55 GMT -8
Very strong China Mobile numbers. 75% of 4G phones were iPhones. That's huge market share and is very bullish for Apple in China going forward.
Keep in mind, 4G is just getting started in China and this was a very limited city roll out in the beginning. If they can do 1 million per month in its infancy, just wait until 4G expands in China.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 20, 2014 5:40:09 GMT -8
Those are terrible numbers...werent people expecting 20M iphones per year? 1M in a month right at the beginning is a terrible sign Godot finally arrived, and nobody cared.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 5:43:50 GMT -8
Those are terrible numbers...werent people expecting 20M iphones per year? 1M in a month right at the beginning is a terrible sign Godot finally arrived, and nobody cared. You don't care that Apple might sell 6 - 8M iPhones in the first year on China Mobile when Analyst expectations were anywhere from 17M to 38M? That 1M number is going to trend down every month until a new iPhone is released...so that's probably the highest Apple will see in Fiscal 2014.
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Post by ericinaustin on Mar 20, 2014 5:48:28 GMT -8
Godot finally arrived, and nobody cared. You don't care that Apple might sell 6 - 8M iPhones in the first year on China Mobile when Analyst expectations were anywhere from 17M to 38M? That 1M number is going to trend down every month until a new iPhone is released...so that's probably the highest Apple will see in Fiscal 2014. I completely disagree. This was a very limited roll out. Look at the % of I phones. It's huge and will cont to ramp. This is just the beginning .
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Post by gvsmitty19 on Mar 20, 2014 5:52:41 GMT -8
Trend down? As 4G roll out increases, iPhone prices decline, and new iPhones are introduced later this year?
I don't see how anyone can be disappointed in Apple for capturing 75% of all 4G phones sold. Be disappointed the 4G roll out is still in its infancy, if anything. But these are very bullish numbers for Apple long-term in China.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 20, 2014 5:53:31 GMT -8
Yeah it's at the low end of the numbers but didn't they roll out to only ~20 cities and expect to roll out to ~300 ? When analysts provide expectations - which one were they thinking about - once it's all rolled out or annualizing the first month in the 20 cities subset?
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Mar 20, 2014 6:16:10 GMT -8
Yeah it's at the low end of the numbers but didn't they roll out to only ~20 cities and expect to roll out to ~300 ? When analysts provide expectations - which one were they thinking about - once it's all rolled out or annualizing the first month in the 20 cities subset? "So it's been an incredible start, and at this moment, we're just selling in 16 cities with China Mobile, and as [Apple CFO] Peter [Oppenheimer] alluded to, this number is projected to be over 300 cities by the end of this year," Cook said on the call. "And so we've got quite the ramp in front of us, and we're incredibly excited." Leave it to Vitalogy to miss the silver lining here...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 6:33:25 GMT -8
Sorry Im not used to Apple selling at tow end of expectations, but i guess as long as the team remains laser focused, thats what really matters. Growth will resume eventually, just trust us
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Mar 20, 2014 6:38:46 GMT -8
PED has a piece comparing China Mobile sales to projections. He shows analysts projections ranging from a high of 39 Million to a low of 5 Million with an average of 18 Million.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Mar 20, 2014 6:46:15 GMT -8
Sorry Im not used to Apple selling at tow end of expectations, but i guess as long as the team remains laser focused, thats what really matters. Growth will resume eventually, just trust us Quick question: if you don't think AAPL is performing up to snuff and only running on fumes and Tim Cook hype, then why hold the shares and post a steady stream of doubt, sarcasm and pessimism here?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 6:51:39 GMT -8
Sorry Im not used to Apple selling at tow end of expectations, but i guess as long as the team remains laser focused, thats what really matters. Growth will resume eventually, just trust us Quick question: if you don't think AAPL is performing up to snuff and only running on fumes and Tim Cook hype, then why hold the shares and post a steady stream of doubt, sarcasm and pessimism here? Ive actually sold more than half my shares, Im just waiting for The developers conference to see if anything great is coming out by then...if theres no new product on the horizon by then, ill be out. I didnt realize this was a "whats the positive on every apple news release" site...i thought it was objective. Sorry...guess only positive opinions are allowed.
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Post by nagrani on Mar 20, 2014 7:21:01 GMT -8
Thurs and Fridays suck for apple. Buy mon - sell wed. Rinse and repeat.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Mar 20, 2014 7:23:06 GMT -8
Quick question: if you don't think AAPL is performing up to snuff and only running on fumes and Tim Cook hype, then why hold the shares and post a steady stream of doubt, sarcasm and pessimism here? Ive actually sold more than half my shares, Im just waiting for The developers conference to see if anything great is coming out by then...if theres no new product on the horizon by then, ill be out. I didnt realize this was a "whats the positive on every apple news release" site...i thought it was objective. Sorry...guess only positive opinions are allowed. I certainly never said this was a forum only for positivity. I think we all appreciate a balanced view weighing the pros and cons. You, sir, seem to be stuck in doomsday mode, though, continually jabbing at Tim's "laser focus." . . . makes me wonder why you bother.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 20, 2014 7:28:34 GMT -8
Quick question: if you don't think AAPL is performing up to snuff and only running on fumes and Tim Cook hype, then why hold the shares and post a steady stream of doubt, sarcasm and pessimism here? Ive actually sold more than half my shares, Im just waiting for The developers conference to see if anything great is coming out by then...if theres no new product on the horizon by then, ill be out. I didnt realize this was a "whats the positive on every apple news release" site...i thought it was objective. Sorry...guess only positive opinions are allowed. Stop crying when you get taken to task when you post uninformed content. It is extremely relevant that CM is in limited roll out so far. You missed that fact and drew a hasty and very likely wrong conclusion. The reaction has nothing to do with only allowing positive opinion. Get serious.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 7:43:01 GMT -8
Ive actually sold more than half my shares, Im just waiting for The developers conference to see if anything great is coming out by then...if theres no new product on the horizon by then, ill be out. I didnt realize this was a "whats the positive on every apple news release" site...i thought it was objective. Sorry...guess only positive opinions are allowed. Stop crying when you get taken to task when you post uninformed content. It is extremely relevant that CM is in limited roll out so far. You missed that fact and drew a hasty and very likely wrong conclusion. The reaction has nothing to do with only allowing positive opinion. Get serious. Even everyone's favorite Apple blogger PED says Apple will be closer to the low end of expectations than the high end...it's certainly not just me that sees this first full month of sales as a disappointment.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2014 7:45:24 GMT -8
Yeah it's at the low end of the numbers but didn't they roll out to only ~20 cities and expect to roll out to ~300 ? When analysts provide expectations - which one were they thinking about - once it's all rolled out or annualizing the first month in the 20 cities subset? "So it's been an incredible start, and at this moment, we're just selling in 16 cities with China Mobile, and as [Apple CFO] Peter [Oppenheimer] alluded to, this number is projected to be over 300 cities by the end of this year," Cook said on the call. "And so we've got quite the ramp in front of us, and we're incredibly excited." Leave it to Vitalogy to miss the silver lining here... By the end of 2013, China Mobile’s 4G services will be available in 16 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen..... www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/12/22China-Mobile-Apple-Bring-iPhone-to-China-Mobiles-4G-3G-Networks-on-January-17-2014.htmlen.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China_by_populationIMHO: the 4 cities mentioned above in China have over 100 million in population, the next 12 probably +100 million. 1 Million does not seem to be a large number for +200 million people. OTOH: It might be a very, very very slow rollout.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 7:49:00 GMT -8
"So it's been an incredible start, and at this moment, we're just selling in 16 cities with China Mobile, and as [Apple CFO] Peter [Oppenheimer] alluded to, this number is projected to be over 300 cities by the end of this year," Cook said on the call. "And so we've got quite the ramp in front of us, and we're incredibly excited." Leave it to Vitalogy to miss the silver lining here... By the end of 2013, China Mobile’s 4G services will be available in 16 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen..... www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/12/22China-Mobile-Apple-Bring-iPhone-to-China-Mobiles-4G-3G-Networks-on-January-17-2014.htmlen.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China_by_populationIMHO: the 4 cities mentioned above in China have over 100 million in population, the next 12 probably +100 million. 1 Million does not seem to be a large number for +200 million people. It might be a very, very very slow rollout. Exactly...and where does everyone here think the majority of Chinese Wealth is? Answer - The largest cities like Beijing, Shanghai etc...
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2014 8:01:28 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2014 8:03:13 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2014 8:20:13 GMT -8
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coma
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Post by coma on Mar 20, 2014 9:05:00 GMT -8
That must be the laser focus Tim keeps talking about.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 20, 2014 10:57:14 GMT -8
So how many 3G phones did CHL sell in February? And what percentage of them were iPhones? 98% of their network is not 4G. They have untold millions of iPhones running on 2G. I swear, the Malaysian government's plane search efforts are more reliable and transparent than smartphone sales data. Edit: Reuters: "China Mobile also said it plans to sell 100 million 4G devices and have 50 million 4G users by the end of the year" Apple Insider: "China Mobile added 14 million 3G customers in January and 10 million in February." You think those were all Galaxy S4's?
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Post by doublerainbow on Mar 20, 2014 11:55:40 GMT -8
My dad just got the 5S from China Mobile yesterday. Apparently they recently started a promotion whereby you pay RMB4,200 (~$700 USD) (rough numbers since we spoke over the phone and he ran me through it briefly to see if it was a good deal or not) upfront and enter a 3-year contract in which you must spend at a minimum RMB288 a month on your phone bill over the life of the contract which he does anyway per month and is already a C.M. customer. After the end of the 3 year contract, you get your RMB4,200 back. So 3 years x $288 = $10,368 - $4,200 = $6,168. Not accounting for currency fluctuation or inflation, you spend ~$1,000 for the phone and 3 years worth of phone bills which isn't so bad considering an average phone costs $4,000 in China alone. Anywho, I thought it was interesting. He dropped his old iPhone in the airport toilet but it was time for an upgrade. (:
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Mar 20, 2014 12:10:55 GMT -8
Stop crying when you get taken to task when you post uninformed content. It is extremely relevant that CM is in limited roll out so far. You missed that fact and drew a hasty and very likely wrong conclusion. The reaction has nothing to do with only allowing positive opinion. Get serious. Even everyone's favorite Apple blogger PED says Apple will be closer to the low end of expectations than the high end...it's certainly not just me that sees this first full month of sales as a disappointment. Just to clarify, PED did not write that "Apple will be closer to the low end of expectations..." He wrote: " "We added 1.34 million new 4G users in February," Chairman Xi Gouhua told her, "and most of them are iPhone users." From that, Luk estimates that the world's largest carrier must have sold about 1 million iPhones in 28 days. If that's right, 2014 incremental sales are likely to come in a lot closer to Morgan Stanley's base case estimate of 12 million than to ISI's Street-high 39 million." He didn't do a very good job of fleshing this story out or offering another view, but there you go . . .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 20, 2014 12:28:06 GMT -8
So how many 3G phones did CHL sell in February? And what percentage of them were iPhones? 98% of their network is not 4G. They have untold millions of iPhones running on 2G. I swear, the Malaysian government's plane search efforts are more reliable and transparent than smartphone sales data. Edit: Reuters: "China Mobile also said it plans to sell 100 million 4G devices and have 50 million 4G users by the end of the year" Apple Insider: "China Mobile added 14 million 3G customers in January and 10 million in February." You think those were all Galaxy S4's? Well, we ARE gradually getting to the point where new iPhone users on China Mobile will be mostly "official". Tim Cook said last CC that iPhones were only launching in those cities with new TD-LTE service. So in theory, iPhones will only ever show up in the new "4G" category of China Mobile's monthly subscriber data, even if a few over-eager local stores jump the gun somehow. And going forward, every 4G-capable handset should show up in that column. Since China Mobile is highly motivated to move its userbase to 4G, that's the battleground that matters now. It's just the one month, but ~75% "4G share" isn't too shabby, considering the just-as-new Note 3 is also sold on China Mobile (so skeptics just can't say, "this is only because iPhone just launched"): service.bj.10086.cn/mobile/164185.html...heck, this might actually be a harbinger of more pain for Samsung, considering the Note 3 is hardly the only other 4G handset alternative on China Mobile... EDIT: Quick note - iPhones were available starting Jan. 17 on China Mobile www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/12/22China-Mobile-Apple-Bring-iPhone-to-China-Mobiles-4G-3G-Networks-on-January-17-2014.html
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