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Post by appledoc on Mar 26, 2014 1:20:37 GMT -8
Let's keep riding that Bollinger band higher. Hopefully AAPL helps to take away the pain of my least favorite day of the week.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 26, 2014 1:27:22 GMT -8
Ok doc - you starting the thread ususally gives us an UP day - fingers crossed!
PS - Asia and Europe up and so are US futures at this point. AAPL slightly green in PM Economic news today: Durable goods at 8:30 am (ET)
Just a note this morning from JPM's Rod Hall on the WSJ article re: AAPL/Comcast: "We find it hard to believe that Comcast would be open to a content deal with Apple given the potential for effective loss of the customer relationship. We would see any deal as a positive for Apple though terms would determine just how positive. However, the main benefit to a deal with Apple for Comcast would be the Apple user interface which, paradoxically, represents the largest long term risk to Comcast’s customer relationship, in our opinion."
If true...it will all be in the details, like everything else.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 26, 2014 3:07:33 GMT -8
Take the steps!
AVOID the escalator.
Do it for your health!
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 26, 2014 4:29:51 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 5:30:36 GMT -8
Curious if Nasdaq holds its gap up.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2014 5:51:13 GMT -8
Looks like AAPL is relatively free to move here, but not over $545 by Friday. On the other hand, the way OI is moving, I wouldn't be writing calls this week.
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 7:04:39 GMT -8
nasdaq fills its gap. That's a 75 pt trading range yesterday. And I think 40 pts today.
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Post by rickag on Mar 26, 2014 7:59:55 GMT -8
Apple is on The Selling on Strength list but the ratio is only 0.94. All block trades were on the downtick but volume seems low.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Mar 26, 2014 9:25:08 GMT -8
Don't know if we discussed this last week or the week before, but Apple is not the number one US company with profits "stranded" overseas. Actually, it is only number 5! I didn't realize that fact until I saw this chart (linked here). And if that's the case, why is Apple always used as the "whipping boy" when this issue is being discussed?
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 9:53:53 GMT -8
Failed break out on watch. Gross.
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Post by The Big Toe on Mar 26, 2014 10:13:45 GMT -8
Any idea what is causing the market to swing lower mid-day?
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 10:18:53 GMT -8
Any idea what is causing the market to swing lower mid-day? It doesn't matter.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Mar 26, 2014 10:22:59 GMT -8
Any idea what is causing the market to swing lower mid-day? I sold a few shares earlier this afternoon in preparation for a condo cash deal next week.
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 12:18:14 GMT -8
Another 550 rejection. Huge. Book em Danny. Will revisit if we can clear 550.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 26, 2014 13:01:47 GMT -8
Well, I hope nobody got too scalped by this latest Market Misdirection Ratfuck™ (MMR). As Lovey likes to say, and I paraphrase, the train doesn't leave the station at warp speed. There will be time to jump on, if/when AAPL really makes a move, without being left behind. Early adopters can pay a big tax!
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 26, 2014 13:53:15 GMT -8
It now makes sense what happened in the market today - the options guy on CNBC just reported it - it basically spooked everyone on the floor and here it is:
Starting at 11:57 a.m. ET, a major player started buying May 1,995-strike put options on the S&P 500 for $133 per contract. The trade was not executed in a single block, but over many smaller trades between 11:57 and 1:12 p.m. (and the prices of the contract varied, getting as low as $131.70 as the market declined). On the whole, 15,450 contracts were purchased. And since each contract controls 100 shares, this trade cost about $200 million. This implies a bearish bet on the market that will make money if the S&P 500 is below 1,862 (1,995 minus $133) at May expiration. However, since this trade was deep "in the money," the assumption is that the trader does not appear to be making a speculative options bet, but rather to be expressing a significant bearish view on the market as a whole. This trade is effectively a $2.8 billion short bet on the S&P...and in the short term it puts pressure on the market as it is executed.
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Post by nagrani on Mar 26, 2014 15:42:37 GMT -8
Maybe it was Putin buying Puts. All he has to do is pull out his squirt gun in mid-Ukraine and then boom. $$$
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Post by rickag on Mar 26, 2014 16:09:03 GMT -8
It now makes sense what happened in the market today - the options guy on CNBC just reported it - it basically spooked everyone on the floor and here it is: Starting at 11:57 a.m. ET, a major player started buying May 1,995-strike put options on the S&P 500 for $133 per contract. The trade was not executed in a single block, but over many smaller trades between 11:57 and 1:12 p.m. (and the prices of the contract varied, getting as low as $131.70 as the market declined). On the whole, 15,450 contracts were purchased. And since each contract controls 100 shares, this trade cost about $200 million. This implies a bearish bet on the market that will make money if the S&P 500 is below 1,862 (1,995 minus $133) at May expiration. However, since this trade was deep "in the money," the assumption is that the trader does not appear to be making a speculative options bet, but rather to be expressing a significant bearish view on the market as a whole. This trade is effectively a $2.8 billion short bet on the S&P...and in the short term it puts pressure on the market as it is executed. Could this have been some kind of hedge? Pardon my total ignorance.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Mar 26, 2014 16:22:30 GMT -8
It now makes sense what happened in the market today - the options guy on CNBC just reported it - it basically spooked everyone on the floor and here it is: Starting at 11:57 a.m. ET, a major player started buying May 1,995-strike put options on the S&P 500 for $133 per contract. The trade was not executed in a single block, but over many smaller trades between 11:57 and 1:12 p.m. (and the prices of the contract varied, getting as low as $131.70 as the market declined). On the whole, 15,450 contracts were purchased. And since each contract controls 100 shares, this trade cost about $200 million. This implies a bearish bet on the market that will make money if the S&P 500 is below 1,862 (1,995 minus $133) at May expiration. However, since this trade was deep "in the money," the assumption is that the trader does not appear to be making a speculative options bet, but rather to be expressing a significant bearish view on the market as a whole. This trade is effectively a $2.8 billion short bet on the S&P...and in the short term it puts pressure on the market as it is executed. Could this have been some kind of hedge? Pardon my total ignorance. Yes, apparently. www.cnbc.com/id/101528314
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 26, 2014 16:23:14 GMT -8
Yes it could have been - that's a lot of premium to pay though. I'm hoping maybe one more day of down and we may reverse. This trade had everyone buzzing and of course, speculating.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 26, 2014 16:28:50 GMT -8
Not worried. Trades like this happen all of the time. Just a blip in the radar. One fund's actions won't dictate the direction of the market.
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Post by macwire on Mar 26, 2014 16:41:12 GMT -8
Not worried. Trades like this happen all of the time. Just a blip in the radar. One fund's actions won't dictate the direction of the market. This is true However Ignoring all the high beta distribution in past 2 weeks ... I dunno. Not saying you are, obviously. But beta boat has sprung a leak. Not sure how market rallies to new highs without leaders participate. Would seem to be negative breadth divergence. Sure signs of a rounding type top. The high beta charts needs some time to heal. Any super bounce is super fade able.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 26, 2014 16:52:18 GMT -8
Not worried. Trades like this happen all of the time. Just a blip in the radar. One fund's actions won't dictate the direction of the market. These trades do happen doc - but not all the time by one player (fund). I know this first hand. The floor traders would not have been rattled if it was just another blip in the radar. When I used to put trades like this on for clients we never showed our hand and would just put it out a piece at a time for exactly that reason. Markets have been really thin so something like this was extremely obvious to all on the floor. That being said, it sounds like this trade may have artificially suppressed the market today - which certainly didn't take much prodding given the underlying nervousness out there.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 26, 2014 17:17:21 GMT -8
phoebear, in your experience on the trading floor, would this trade have been "factored in" by others on the floor by the close? Or would word not necessarily get around within a few hours?
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 26, 2014 17:37:58 GMT -8
phoebear, in your experience on the trading floor, would this trade have been "factored in" by others on the floor by the close? Or would word not necessarily get around within a few hours? I'm not certain it would have been factored in - for the most part, perhaps. Word doesn't necessarily get to the upstairs trading floors - to the sales people covering accounts from major banks like GS or JPM or MS- that quickly. Now that the trade has been publicized, tomorrow morning there will be some chatter with clients about it. That's why I'm guessing we "may" be a little soft tomorrow. I have no doubt that the thinness in volume plus the size of the trade made folks uncomfortable. It's funny - we all think that the trading floor knows more than we do. On the flip side, the trading floor always thinks that clients have the inside scoop and are out to screw them. Meanwhile - no one knows anything for sure!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2014 17:49:36 GMT -8
Well, I hope nobody got too scalped by this latest Market Misdirection Ratfuck™ (MMR). As Lovey likes to say, and I paraphrase, the train doesn't leave the station at warp speed. There will be time to jump on, if/when AAPL really makes a move, without being left behind. Early adopters can pay a big tax! It's like you've seen this movie before...
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Post by mace on Mar 26, 2014 23:26:01 GMT -8
Any idea what is causing the market to swing lower mid-day? I sold a few shares earlier this afternoon in preparation for a condo cash deal next week. Why so bullish on RE? Many articles say recovering is over.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Mar 27, 2014 2:32:19 GMT -8
Why so bullish on RE? Many articles say recovering is over. This particular condo is where my 93 year old father in law lives, so the purchase is primarily for a future care taker role if needed. The secondary reason is that I am 70 years old with arthritis and allergic to NSAIDs, so the two swimming pools directly below are an exceptional attraction.
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