Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2014 16:50:37 GMT -8
+30,000,000,000
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on Apr 23, 2014 16:53:22 GMT -8
There's a reason Apple went 7:1, I'm guessing. There may yet be a trillion dollar market cap company someday. SOMEday. Me, I'll be fine with $550B market cap for the "short" term. Oppenheimer served Apple well, that much is beyond doubt. He and Maestri have put in some impressive foundations for future valuation. My best guess is that they are hoping for a 3-digit number in short order thus vindicating their strategy and recapturing the all-time-high of about $700 pre-split.
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Post by osx10 on Apr 23, 2014 17:06:38 GMT -8
When TC told the short term daytraders/gamblers that this wasn't the stock for them and that they should sell, he likely was already well down the road with this plan and just wanted to be rid of the d-bags from Stock Twits.
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Post by macwire on Apr 23, 2014 17:33:34 GMT -8
everyone from stocktwits has been short since 700, covered at 400 and long at 390.
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Post by yellowhandman on Apr 23, 2014 18:25:30 GMT -8
My best guess is that they are hoping for a 3-digit number in short order thus vindicating their strategy and recapturing the all-time-high of about $700 pre-split. I think you're right, and I have no doubt it'll happen - if they just wanted the effect of a split, they could've gone 10-for-1, but the 7 divisor is a clear signal. With the after-hours pop today, AAPL would $80 post-split...retail investors would drive it above $100 easily, just in their rush to get onboard the "suddenly cheap" stock.
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Post by gvsmitty19 on Apr 23, 2014 18:52:26 GMT -8
So AAPL grew earnings around 15%
GOOG was 1%
Why are they the growth stock again?
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Post by osx10 on Apr 23, 2014 19:02:55 GMT -8
Which MIA voice do we hear back from first - Andy Zaky, Nick Nansen, or Sponge?
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Post by mrentropy on Apr 23, 2014 19:08:50 GMT -8
I re beer someone (Redler I think) making the statement that Apple should split the stock or the street would do it for them. Well, the street almost halved it last year, I like this version of a split better.
That being said, getting the price down via a split could help take some wind out of options manipulation. Spreads and movement will be smaller, it might not be as attractive to play that game anymore, which is fine in my book. I agree with JD's statement, we will be back to a $700 equivalent a helluva lot faster with the split than without.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 23, 2014 19:17:02 GMT -8
Which MIA voice do we hear back from first - Andy Zaky, Nick Nansen, or Sponge? Why did you have to go and ruin a perfectly good day?
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Post by BillH on Apr 23, 2014 19:21:16 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 23, 2014 19:39:13 GMT -8
Which MIA voice do we hear back from first - Andy Zaky, Nick Nansen, or Sponge? I was just thinking about Spongey today, reinvigorated by confirmation bias. He'll be back, saying he was right all along. For the record, I hope Sponge is the best dart player every quarter. Let's just remember next time, when contemplating the ANALysts, to keep clear the difference between accuracy and veracity.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Apr 23, 2014 19:44:07 GMT -8
Which MIA voice do we hear back from first - Andy Zaky, Nick Nansen, or Sponge? When we hear from Nate, I'm clearing out
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2014 20:14:55 GMT -8
This is why we can't have nice things.
So the saying goes.
Just thought about it for no particular reason.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on Apr 23, 2014 20:25:23 GMT -8
I wonder if Apple/TC is going for the 1-2-3 punch? 1. A great quarter, 2. The dividend increase/split, 3. New category announcements (next month? June?)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 23, 2014 20:33:19 GMT -8
I wonder if Apple/TC is going for the 1-2-3 punch? 1. A great quarter, 2. The dividend increase/split, 3. New category announcements (next month? June?) I think Angela starting next week is the third punch. Did they buy out the value of her Burberry options? Look for MUCH more out of retail soon. The stores are languishing right now. Need new life, new panache...new products wouldn't hurt either.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on Apr 23, 2014 21:39:28 GMT -8
I wonder if Apple/TC is going for the 1-2-3 punch? 1. A great quarter, 2. The dividend increase/split, 3. New category announcements (next month? June?) I think Angela starting next week is the third punch. Did they buy out the value of her Burberry options? Look for MUCH more out of retail soon. The stores are languishing right now. Need new life, new panache...new products wouldn't hurt either. I'm not sure Apple is leaving much on the table retail-wise. Remember, people seek out Apple products much more than being "sold" on them. However, I bet Apple retail stores result in a higher margin than other sales channels, so if the mix changes, it will improve overall margins.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2014 21:42:56 GMT -8
Shaw Wu is another MIA who isn't missed.
I still can't get over 43B+ iPhones. Unreal. But then, we had no data points. No domestic carrier intel. No IMEI/Serial Numbers (like in the early days). Channel checks? Fahgettaboutit. Now that guidance can't even be counted on to derive estimates, the dart board just got very, very small. Think long term, not short term around quarterly results and you'll be fine.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2014 21:50:36 GMT -8
Yes and no. Good news - Apple can "ignore" US carrier headwinds. Better yet, when the upgrade situation normalizes in a few months...well...iPhone 6.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 23, 2014 23:19:53 GMT -8
Final thought, earnings day. Funny looking at open interest, which of course has no bearing on the week. But lots of walls on both sides for a mere weekly, mucho hedging (as I tell my gardener, but he just smiles and doesn't do shit). Almost 9K puts at 500. So much for those darts! Almost 11K at 550, better dart throws...
OK, time for another IPA, and time to send a couple of good ones to Mr. Lovemyipad...
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Post by Zeke on Apr 25, 2014 14:47:37 GMT -8
This, and more. I have long been an advocate of a split, and even my Dow 30 membership reservations have been overcome for reasons I'll elaborate on later, as I must take the dog for a hike. It's not just the accessibility of the share price that a split creates. I'm sure many, if not most here would agree that markets are psychologically driven. The average investor looks at AAPL's relative share price of $5XX and thinks it is higher than FB at $61, despite the latter's 100 P/E. The average person simply does not look at P/E's. My parents have been long AAPL 20 years like myself, and they couldn't begin to tell you AAPL's P/E. I have a math professor friend with a stratospheric IQ, who is heavily in the market via funds and a handful of stocks, who thinks AAPL is "expensive" at $500. He said the same at $400, $300, and $125 (I still have the e-mails). The talking heads sure as hell didn't help when AAPL breached 700. Those TV dunces rarely, if ever, mentioned AAPL's low P/E when screaming about the law of large numbers - and never included GOOG's or PCLN's valuations in those ridiculous proclamations. I think P/E's are absolute, total horseshit in predicting a stock's price. Here is the closest I will get to a price prediction: As someone else mentioned, we will be over $100 (at ~$75 c/b @ today's close), which is just about $700 equivalent, a hell of a lot quicker than we ever would be without the split (I don't know if we ever would have hit $700 again, frankly, but this is now a whole new ballgame). I know that isn't much of a prediction, but IMO it is simply easier for a stock to creep from $75-100 vs from $525-$700. I know it sounds crazy, but I really do think you can sneak up on people easier with a lower share price than from a higher one people are already afraid of and screaming about a bubble and law of large numbers. Today was a massive win-win, and not just for the obvious earnings beat reasons. Today, Tim Cook declared loud and clear what I have been begging and pleading for Apple to do: Today, Apple said it really cares about its stockholders. More buybacks, dividend increases, and splits are clear, unequivocal actions that speak to that. Cook even mentioned how he welcomes shareholder input. Tim didn't actually say he loved us, but for some men, PDA's are hard. It isn't enough for the best company in the world to care about customers. Such a company can love shareholders too, and that was today's message, finally, mercifully: "Come on board, buy some AAPL, we love you." Three months ago I wrote an email to Tim Cook pleading for a stock split of at least 5:1. I'm pretty sure he heard that message from a lot of people.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2014 15:06:00 GMT -8
I voted for a 10 for 1. Looks like he split our difference
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 25, 2014 15:22:31 GMT -8
This, and more. I have long been an advocate of a split, and even my Dow 30 membership reservations have been overcome for reasons I'll elaborate on later, as I must take the dog for a hike. It's not just the accessibility of the share price that a split creates. I'm sure many, if not most here would agree that markets are psychologically driven. The average investor looks at AAPL's relative share price of $5XX and thinks it is higher than FB at $61, despite the latter's 100 P/E. The average person simply does not look at P/E's. My parents have been long AAPL 20 years like myself, and they couldn't begin to tell you AAPL's P/E. I have a math professor friend with a stratospheric IQ, who is heavily in the market via funds and a handful of stocks, who thinks AAPL is "expensive" at $500. He said the same at $400, $300, and $125 (I still have the e-mails). The talking heads sure as hell didn't help when AAPL breached 700. Those TV dunces rarely, if ever, mentioned AAPL's low P/E when screaming about the law of large numbers - and never included GOOG's or PCLN's valuations in those ridiculous proclamations. I think P/E's are absolute, total horseshit in predicting a stock's price. Here is the closest I will get to a price prediction: As someone else mentioned, we will be over $100 (at ~$75 c/b @ today's close), which is just about $700 equivalent, a hell of a lot quicker than we ever would be without the split (I don't know if we ever would have hit $700 again, frankly, but this is now a whole new ballgame). I know that isn't much of a prediction, but IMO it is simply easier for a stock to creep from $75-100 vs from $525-$700. I know it sounds crazy, but I really do think you can sneak up on people easier with a lower share price than from a higher one people are already afraid of and screaming about a bubble and law of large numbers. Today was a massive win-win, and not just for the obvious earnings beat reasons. Today, Tim Cook declared loud and clear what I have been begging and pleading for Apple to do: Today, Apple said it really cares about its stockholders. More buybacks, dividend increases, and splits are clear, unequivocal actions that speak to that. Cook even mentioned how he welcomes shareholder input. Tim didn't actually say he loved us, but for some men, PDA's are hard. It isn't enough for the best company in the world to care about customers. Such a company can love shareholders too, and that was today's message, finally, mercifully: "Come on board, buy some AAPL, we love you." Three months ago I wrote an email to Tim Cook pleading for a stock split of at least 5:1. I'm pretty sure he heard that message from a lot of people. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I believe Icahn suggested the split to Cook, among other things. And, of course, two illustrious members of AFB2 asking for it didn't hurt.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 25, 2014 15:37:20 GMT -8
Earnings beat, decent guide, more buybacks, share split way over expectations. What more could we ask for? Only box left to check is them new product categories. To which I say, fine, but iPhone 6 will bring home the bacon as new iPhones always do. Greater China growth should be pretty decent in fiscal Q1 2015.
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Post by ericinaustin on Apr 25, 2014 16:02:52 GMT -8
Earnings beat, decent guide, more buybacks, share split way over expectations. What more could we ask for? Only box left to check is them new product categories. To which I say, fine, but iPhone 6 will bring home the bacon as new iPhones always do. Greater China growth should be pretty decent in fiscal Q1 2015. I think the ramp in China sales will hit just about time the holiday selling and new phones are flowing. The pieces are in place for an absolute MONSTER Jan. earnings report.
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