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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2014 11:59:13 GMT -8
570 appears in the cards. Man, there has been no spread on that share price today since 9:48 A.M. Looks like those who want to buy on the dip wont' get a chance..at least not today. So, when do they just pull the trigger anyway? Maybe a 24 million share day today.....then tomorrow? With the split, the share count declining (and continuing to decline) June looks pretty good right now... Somebody get RED a beer! He's quoting himself!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 24, 2014 12:01:54 GMT -8
Somebody get RED a beer! He's quoting himself! It's the evil Picard. Don't listen to him! 570 indeed...not possible.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 24, 2014 12:31:16 GMT -8
570 appears in the cards. Man, there has been no spread on that share price today since 9:48 A.M. There appears to be no selloff pending.More like Red Shirted Jinx!
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Post by nagrani on Apr 24, 2014 12:36:12 GMT -8
That's HFT taking a dump on retail investors.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2014 14:39:25 GMT -8
The 10Q is up www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312514157311/d694710d10q.htm940,692,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 19, 2012. 939,058,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 11, 2013 938,649,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of April 12, 2013 908,497,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of July 12, 2013 899,738,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of October 18th, 2013 891,989,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 10, 2014 861,381,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of April 11, 2014 945,355,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of September 29, 2012 947,217,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of December 29, 2012 946,035,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of March 30, 2013 924,265,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of June 29, 2013 931,662,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of September 28th, 2013 901,452,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of December 28th, 2013 879,528,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of March 29th, 2014 aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/61704/thread
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2014 17:10:34 GMT -8
My 880M share count estimate wasn't too shabby. Too bad it wasn't worth anything, like everything else except iPhones. No one had a good bead on iPhone sales -- in fact, no one guessed a bigger # than Apple reported. That's significant. Unfortunately, estimating Apple earnings is now more difficult than ever. Why? One, Apple's new guidance methodology is now in question after the huge beat. Two, it's all about the iPhones. For the March, June and September quarters we simply don't have sufficient data points to measure demand. If this was possible to obtain, one could make some really good coin on that. However, the carriers don't release much data that's helpful now and Apple appears to have locked down other sources. December is only slightly easier since it's production, not demand. Even then, we simply lack the data. So this practice of quarterly estimates is worth little, as long as iPhones are still the straw that stirs Apple's drink. Other things in Apple's product mix are a bit more predictable, but they don't move the needle separately or collectively. The big picture and a longer term time horizon? The back half of 2014 for Apple looks very good to me, barring macro events, foreseeable and otherwise.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2014 17:52:14 GMT -8
It's all dartboards Mercel, even for the pros. The main takeaway from yesterday was iPhone remains strong. That bodes well for the iPhone 6, which will be the most aspirational iPhone yet. Apple appears to be doing well in emerging markets, which is also important. Who knows, maybe Apple will be just fine with an iPhone ASP in the low/mid 550s if the growth is there.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2014 19:07:36 GMT -8
It's all dartboards Mercel, even for the pros. The main takeaway from yesterday was iPhone remains strong. That bodes well for the iPhone 6, which will be the most aspirational iPhone yet. Apple appears to be doing well in emerging markets, which is also important. Who knows, maybe Apple will be just fine with an iPhone ASP in the low/mid 550s if the growth is there. Listen, I'm not AGAINST the idea of sinking my teeth into some data points that support estimates. If someone started collecting good intel on sales by carrier and leverage some statistical sampling, it could be very worthwhile. Currently, I have zero confidence of just relying upon sequential and YOY comparisons. Daniel Tello was able to predict on the basis of IMEI/Serial #s in the early days. That was an advantage. Then, it was beating WS types with the amortization of iPhone revenue recognition. When the # got too big, Apple changed its accounting method. Now? It's a guess. I'm not comfortable with it. But yeah, the iPhone is studly strong. State of the art 64bit chip, the best Fingerprint sensor and the most accurate and pleasing-to-the-eye display. And in less than six months, Apple is going to move the goal line into a different stadium, one that the visiting team wishes it played in.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2014 19:15:35 GMT -8
But but low-res display In all seriousness I bet even _Apple_ has wondered how to follow up the 326 ppi screen. It's not bad, though it's also not "competitive". The naming part is easy - Retina Plus, Retina 2, or don't change it - it'd be interesting to see Ive, Federighi, Riccio and company fight over how many pixels should be in the display. The competition should be most scared by Apple's inroads in emerging markets with the 4S. They have to engineer an answer for iPhone 6 by around, say, Sept. 2016. What do they do? Try to make the best damn smartphone possible and let it go with minimal tweaks for 2 years? Well, no one save maybe HTC is trying too hard to match Apple's build quality. Option 2 is cost-engineer and design a competitor for iPhone 6 then. That method is even MORE likely to fail, since cost compromise is built-in from the start (and Apple can now drive down cost curves like no one else on Earth). This is gonna be fun to watch.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2014 19:31:46 GMT -8
Feel free to challenge me on this, but I recall reading that Samsung sells only 70% of the smartphones it ships (or builds). That's probably why it fears offering better build quality on the Galaxy. Can you imagine the hit to margin if Apple ran its business that way?
HTC has build quality but the design just doesn't rise to the level of Apple, if one could get past the fact it runs on Android, a busted platform IMO.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 24, 2014 20:02:52 GMT -8
WSJ: Icahn Didn’t Win at Apple, But Got Much of What He WantedIMHO, Icahn's advocacy has been good for Cook and AAPL shareholders, regardless of his motives. One of my mantras: Outputs matter more than inputs. I do believe, even before reading the above story, that Icahn hit Cook hard in private on talking up AAPL, not just Apple. "Undervalued."
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