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Post by mace on Apr 30, 2014 15:34:36 GMT -8
Technically, AAPL is overbought (RSI, stochastic, bearish divergence in 1 min chart), so expect retracement not lower than $572. Have placed GTC limit order for vertical call spread (Jan 595/700) at equivalent price of $575, and vertical call spread (Aug 560/630) at equivalent price of $560. If AAPL declines lower, need to reassess. If didn't drop to target price, ok too since I have a bunch of Jan 600/700.
Edit: Closed all May option positions GTC closing order for Jul positions, though deep ITM but far away from target closing of 95% of max potential. Oct positions are also DITM, no closing order placed, too far away. Focus is big bet on Jan spreads, may consider naked calls since IV is low.
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Post by bryanyc on Apr 30, 2014 15:39:10 GMT -8
IMHO, this surge will not be finished until 610-620, which is the top of what I consider to be a long term channel. OTOH, we could retrace to 475 or so if this is really the top for now. 644 by WWDC in June. The Vxapl, though down almost a percent today, is so low, and has shown a bounce post earnings unlike other post earnings, that I think a retest of an undisclosed round number is still in the cards.
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Post by appleaddict on Apr 30, 2014 15:46:52 GMT -8
I hope Mace reads these posts tonight but I don't recall him saying anything about going back to the dungeon so relax. If Mace does read this, please feel free to elaborate with respect to your post from yesterday when you said we could be sub $590. Let's not jump the gun here...also, appleaddict, kindly define "dungeon" in terms of stock price. 580's, 570's, 560's.... Also, is there any word out from the trial at all? Stock popped +1 1/2 in AH...just wondering if anything was said somewhere. TIA I was just saying the last time I read "gravestone doji" was around Feb. 18 when we hit $551, where I bought shares after watching non-stop rise from $500. From there we went back down to $515 in a week. Not saying that's what will happen, just have a bad memory of that symbol that Mace had pointed out. I'd say $515 is a dungeon since we were held there for so long.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 30, 2014 15:55:21 GMT -8
Top of this move comes somewhere 605-627. Retrace to 550-560s, then leg up to at least 700. That's the bull case.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 30, 2014 15:56:03 GMT -8
Would be nice to get a court win ... I think it would bring us above $600 in the near term. Anyway- not in my control - will have to wait and see. Next week we go XD I believe
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2014 16:01:53 GMT -8
Technically, AAPL is overbought (RSI, stochastic, bearish divergence in 1 min chart), so expect retracement not lower than $572. Have placed GTC limit order for vertical call spread (Jan 595/700) at equivalent price of $575, and vertical call spread (Aug 560/630) at equivalent price of $560. If AAPL declines lower, need to reassess. If didn't drop to target price, ok too since I have a bunch of Jan 600/700. Edit: Closed all May option positions GTC closing order for Jul positions, though deep ITM but far away from target closing of 95% of max potential. Oct positions are also DITM, no closing order placed, too far away. Focus is big bet on Jan spreads, may consider naked calls since IV is low. Beware the January LEAPS call walls... Already 9,500 at...1,000 strike.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2014 16:12:22 GMT -8
If Jony delivers on iWatch that produces the "I want" impulse like the desirability of one of these mechanical watches, call walls might as well be made of jello. Very cool video on precision engineering wearable: youtu.be/UwpP_s8LV_Y
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 30, 2014 16:13:27 GMT -8
Who on Earth is crazy enough to buy Jan 15 1000 (142 6/7) calls?! (Wait, I can think of a few people)
And who among mere mortal individual investors has enough account equity or whatever to sell enough Jan 15 1000 calls to collect any reasonable amount of premium? (Probably a trick question)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2014 16:26:44 GMT -8
Only if you are Bull++. Not I, unless Apple buys AMZN.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 30, 2014 16:33:08 GMT -8
Apple buying AMZN. You mean Bear double minus?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2014 16:41:38 GMT -8
Apple buying AMZN. You mean Bear double minus? AMZN's P/E ratio is its biggest asset . I want it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 30, 2014 16:43:54 GMT -8
AAPL 20,000, here we come Er, no
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Post by firestorm on Apr 30, 2014 17:04:20 GMT -8
Only if you are Bull++. Not I, unless Apple buys AMZN. Maybe Tesla instead of Amazon; either way, the margins would collapse.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2014 19:38:38 GMT -8
Funny how we got an atrocious GDP miss, 0.1% vs 1.2% expected, might even be revised downward to a retraction of GDP, yet the Dow up, futures green.
Up is down, bad news is good news, so long as the Fed keeps the candy coming. Amazing.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Apr 30, 2014 20:18:55 GMT -8
Funny how we got an atrocious GDP miss, 0.1% vs 1.2% expected, might even be revised downward to a retraction of GDP, yet the Dow up, futures green. Up is down, bad news is good news, so long as the Fed keeps the candy coming. Amazing. When this started to happen last year I was very please JD. This means the markets are functioning normally again. As an advisor, I haven't seen this since the 1990's. Good news means higher interest rates and that's bad news to the market and vice versa. Very pleased to see the markets functioning normally again! Looks like we are in a long term secular bull market. They can last up to 21 years. If so, we are only 5 years into it. Very optimistic about this personally. Go Apple go!
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Post by Volvocoupe on Apr 30, 2014 20:59:11 GMT -8
Funny how we got an atrocious GDP miss, 0.1% vs 1.2% expected, might even be revised downward to a retraction of GDP, yet the Dow up, futures green. Up is down, bad news is good news, so long as the Fed keeps the candy coming. Amazing. When this started to happen last year I was very pleased JD. This means the markets are functioning normally again. As an advisor, I haven't seen this since the 1990's. Good news means higher interest rates and that's bad news to the market and vice versa. Very pleased to see the markets functioning normally again! Looks like we are in a long term secular bull market. They can last up to 21 years. If so, we are only 5 years into it. Very optimistic about this personally. Go Apple go!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2014 21:06:55 GMT -8
Only if you are Bull++. Not I, unless Apple buys AMZN. Maybe Tesla instead of Amazon; either way, the margins would collapse. Tesla, including Elon Musk, would be well received by WS. We know Jony loves cars. Google wants a driverless car (Wussy Eric Schmidt thinks people driving cars is a big flaw). There are worse ideas. I think Apple plans on buying more stock than any of us realize -- AAPL is a better investment than acquisitions WS wants from Tim Cook.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 30, 2014 21:44:23 GMT -8
Hey, you didn't ask me for _my_ silly opinion yet, Mercel. Unfortunately there _is_ a practical limit to how much Apple can borrow, though we're not quite there yet. Maybe another 3-4 years of borrowing $10-20B assuming 5-ish% rev growth? Lucky for us Apple is a cash generating monster - cash net of bonds should be mostly static, it's just a matter of how much debt Apple's comfortable with keeping on their books. I'm hoping Apple can wait out the clock until friggin' corporate tax reform passes the opposite of Progress (not holding my breath...could it even happen in 10 years?)
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2014 21:49:06 GMT -8
So we're talking profitless Tesla again? Must be Groundhog's Day.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2014 22:51:14 GMT -8
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Post by bloodylongaapl on May 1, 2014 2:26:20 GMT -8
Hey, you didn't ask me for _my_ silly opinion yet, Mercel. Unfortunately there _is_ a practical limit to how much Apple can borrow, though we're not quite there yet. Maybe another 3-4 years of borrowing $10-20B assuming 5-ish% rev growth? Lucky for us Apple is a cash generating monster - cash net of bonds should be mostly static, it's just a matter of how much debt Apple's comfortable with keeping on their books. I'm hoping Apple can wait out the clock until friggin' corporate tax reform passes the opposite of Progress (not holding my breath...could it even happen in 10 years?) But they are now borrowing in international markets and repaying interest and capital out of offshore funds. What would stop them issuing say 1-yr bonds through this method and effectively using that as a route to "repatriate" that offshore cash? Apart from the bad press and US Gov scrutiny of course. Anything?
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