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Post by phoebear611 on May 16, 2014 2:37:10 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on May 16, 2014 4:10:50 GMT -8
I'm still interested to see what happens in the lead-up to and aftermath of the split. An AAPL split is a once-in-a-generation event. I plan to hold my paltry number of remaining shares through the split, just to see how my trading system handles everything. I'd be interested in any (non-advice) plans by others - how are you positioned for the upcoming split dynamics?
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Post by ahmpower on May 16, 2014 5:13:25 GMT -8
I personally hope the split is a catalyst for a 20% rise
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Post by Lstream on May 16, 2014 5:22:39 GMT -8
I personally hope the split is a catalyst for a 20% rise With the split being widely anticipated, and the run-up after the announcement, I am actually expecting a pull-back after the split. Short term until we get some real news.
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Post by redinaustin on May 16, 2014 5:30:01 GMT -8
I'm still interested to see what happens in the lead-up to and aftermath of the split. An AAPL split is a once-in-a-generation event. I plan to hold my paltry number of remaining shares through the split, just to see how my trading system handles everything. I'd be interested in any (non-advice) plans by others - how are you positioned for the upcoming split dynamics? I must be really old, as this will be my 3rd split!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 16, 2014 6:07:50 GMT -8
I know absolutely nothing...nothing...but my game plan is that we ride up a bit into the split...them settle back for several weeks as buyers and sellers adjust positions, the option markets recalibrate, the new ( relatively) improved liquidity of an 85 dollar price is folded in...
Then, in July we get quarterly rebalancings, new money entering the markets, acceptable earnings, WWDC in the rear view mirror and iPhone 6 just over the horizon...if we get rumors of an August event everything accelerates...so I see a later summer quiet rally into and through Labor Day..
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Post by pauls on May 16, 2014 7:00:38 GMT -8
"How are you positioned for the upcoming split dynamics?"
I predict AAPL stays around $600 ($580-$610) heading into the split. Spike up in the first week $630. Back to $600-ish in short order. Early July, $630+, after dust settles and anticipation builds for new new new. Step up to $670 at iPhone 6 announcement (+ new something or other). From there, several months to $700 ($100). December? Likely mostly trade at/below $100 in early '15.
I hate making predictions, but what the hell. I'm holding and overweight.
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Post by gtrplyr on May 16, 2014 7:10:51 GMT -8
Since we are pulling numbers out of our asses .... I'll take a shot .
We bounce over $600 for the split ... let's say $620. Then when the dolts out there start talking and decide AAPL is now "Cheap" we plow through $100 in short order. After the iPhone6 and a iWatch come out we go to $130 .... by years end when Apple is taking over Christmas (Again ..) we hit $150.
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Post by firestorm on May 16, 2014 7:36:41 GMT -8
Since we are pulling numbers out of our asses .... I'll take a shot . We bounce over $600 for the split ... let's say $620. Then when the dolts out there start talking and decide AAPL is now "Cheap" we plow through $100 in short order. After the iPhone6 and a iWatch come out we go to $130 .... by years end when Apple is taking over Christmas (Again ..) we hit $150. What a wonderful fantasy! Sometimes dreams come true.
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Post by rezonate on May 16, 2014 10:08:46 GMT -8
Love it! AAPL all time high. Who originally predicted when AAPL would go over $1000? Sponge? Dawn Treader? TommoUK? ----- Since we are pulling numbers out of our asses .... I'll take a shot . We bounce over $600 for the split ... let's say $620. Then when the dolts out there start talking and decide AAPL is now "Cheap" we plow through $100 in short order. After the iPhone6 and a iWatch come out we go to $130 .... by years end when Apple is taking over Christmas (Again ..) we hit $150. What a wonderful fantasy! Sometimes dreams come true.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2014 10:15:56 GMT -8
As I've said before, I am extremely bullish about the split. A year from now, nobody outside of this board will remember it. They'll just look at AAPL as "cheap."
Like iPhones. They aren't $600. They are like $99.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on May 16, 2014 10:58:19 GMT -8
2:14 is to AFBers as 4:20 is to stoners
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Post by podboy on May 16, 2014 11:03:25 GMT -8
2/14 is my bday, I'll take that as a sign.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on May 16, 2014 11:12:55 GMT -8
I am cautiously optimistic about the split. I am thinking that if we have 60-65 percent institutional ownership ownership, where an institution is defined as anyone holding more than 1000 shares, then there must be about 350 million shares held by retail investors. In the absence of other information, if you assumed that the average holdings are normally distributed with a mean of 500 shares, that would mean that there are about 700,000 retail investors.
That leads to two questions: "What will the effect of the split be on the number of retail investors?" and "How will the number of retail investors effect the stock price?" Given that Apple is much smarter than I am and they are doing this to make the stock more accessible to retail investors, I assume that the effect is to increase the number of retail investors. Then we have to ask by how much?
The risk/reward curve for most people is not linear. In general, we are more wiling to take risks on small sums than we are on big ones. Since most people don't mind winning, but they don't want to lose (Eagles lyrics) I would assume that fear is the dominant emotion and thus a smaller stock price would increase the number of potential retail buyers by more than a linear proportion. In other words, we might expect that there would be 10 times ( more than 7 )more potential retail Apple stock buyers after the split. That is probably being conservative.
The second question is harder. How do we get from the number of buyers and sellers to the change in stock price? Frankly I am still struggling with this one. If anyone has an idea about how to calculate a predictive function of change in stock price as a function of the number of buyers and sellers, I would love to hear your thoughts. It would be even better if the function was related to the difference between the current stock price and it's perceived value. It may be that the ratio of buyer to sellers is related to the rate of change in the stock price and we have to integrate, I am not sure. As I said, I am struggling with this and would love some help.
Whatever the relationship is, I cannot find a rational basis to expect the stock to decline after the split. My caution comes from the fact that I still cannot find a rational reason for the decline from 700. I guess we have to hang on and see.
My gut feeling is that we should see the stock go to 100 by the end of July
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2014 11:15:33 GMT -8
Nice pop, but I am doubtful 595 holds.
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Post by mrentropy on May 16, 2014 11:21:08 GMT -8
Whee.
No idea what caused that rip, but I am always happy to see a call wall blasted through. (Apologies to call sellers out there, but .. Wheee!)
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Post by podboy on May 16, 2014 11:31:01 GMT -8
I think some retail investors will want to buy AAPL stock at $85 just so they can say they own 1000 shares of AAPL to their friends to feed their ego. And when I say some retail investors, I mean me.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2014 11:38:45 GMT -8
This is shaping up to be a very nice week, all things considered.
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Post by podboy on May 16, 2014 11:54:29 GMT -8
I'm still interested to see what happens in the lead-up to and aftermath of the split. An AAPL split is a once-in-a-generation event. I plan to hold my paltry number of remaining shares through the split, just to see how my trading system handles everything. I'd be interested in any (non-advice) plans by others - how are you positioned for the upcoming split dynamics? I must be really old, as this will be my 3rd split! I really look up to you guys that have been around and able to stick it out for so long. It takes guts. I hope I'm able to not let my emotions get in the way and hold AAPL for a long time. We'll see. I'm building a $600K house and putting $520K down. I'm debating selling most of my AAPL to pay for the whole thing. Question is, will AAPL go up more then the 4% interest rate? But then, what would I do during the day, being in this stock gives me joy (when not losing my ass) its kinda like a hobby.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2014 12:02:35 GMT -8
Weeeee, nice close, even the 597.50's fell.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 16, 2014 12:03:12 GMT -8
2:14 is to AFBers as 4:20 is to stoners Ha! Vindicated again,,,LOL
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2014 12:04:18 GMT -8
Wow, that was a strong close. Higher volume, high of the week, bears on the run would be nice Had to buy in a bit when AAPL was making a run at 595.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2014 12:25:56 GMT -8
Wow, that was a strong close. Higher volume, high of the week, bears on the run would be nice It's always nice to see the bulls run off the bears.
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Post by moltenfire on May 16, 2014 12:57:55 GMT -8
I just sold some covered calls at $600 expiring next Fri, so with my luck AAPL will close above 600 next Friday
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on May 16, 2014 13:04:29 GMT -8
I just sold some covered calls at $600 expiring next Fri, so with my luck AAPL will close above 600 next Friday I wouldn't mind luck like that too ... of course, I'm long. Very long.
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