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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 3:40:20 GMT -8
Good morning ... I have a tough time typing in "June" ... Do you realize the year is half over already? Geez! While you were sleeping: - Asia: red except for Nikkei - Europe: red except for CAC 40 - US Futures: indices a bit red - AAPL PM: $637.99 (+$0.45) Snapshot news on AAPL: - WSJ Online: JD brought this article to my attention - could be a good acquisition for AAPL (?) - (He has teed it up to cue the porn jokes!) - New Chip to Bring Holograms to Smartphones: online.wsj.com/articles/new-chip-to-bring-holograms-to-smartphones-1401752938 - appleinsider: iOS 8 ups chances of recovering lost or stolen iPhone with 'Send Last Location' feature: appleinsider.com/articles/14/06/03/ios-8-ups-chances-of-recovering-lost-or-stolen-iphone-with-send-last-location-feature - Reuters / Yahoo Finance: China state media calls for 'severe punishment' for Google, Apple, U.S. tech firms: finance.yahoo.com/news/china-state-media-calls-severe-055043969.html - The Street: Why Apple Continuity Among Its Top-Tier Products Is Great for Investors: www.thestreet.com/story/12732280/1/why-apple-continuity-among-its-top-tier-products-is-great-for-investors.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO - Business Insider: Apple Has Basically Declared That iPhone's 'Touch ID' Will Replace Your Wallet: finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-basically-declared-iphones-touch-102849591.html - 9 to 5 Mac: Apple introduces MFi specs for Lightning cable headphones, support arriving in future iOS update: 9to5mac.com/2014/06/03/apple-introduces-mfi-specs-for-lightning-cable-headphones-support-arriving-in-future-ios-update/A little bit of housekeeping this morning: It's difficult to please everyone with info posted first thing in the morning. The idea is to give a very macro view of what is happening in the markets but specifically AAPL stock. The articles posted are exactly what a labeled them - just a snapshot and not all encompassing. That being said, I find it comical when 2 or 3 posts into the morning there are folks posting the same articles as a point of interest. I feel like a schoolmarm but kindly check some of the previous posts to make sure that we haven't already posted the story - in particular if our thread is only one to two pages long. Also, if there is something that you find extremely helpful for yourself - don't assume you are unique. Feel free to share and post it or at least give me a heads up and I will try to include.....and that's all folks! AAPL had a nice close yesterday. Wednesday there always seems to be a reshuffling of positions so I'm not quite sure what the PIN level will be or even if it is applicable this week (as we have learned - it works until it doesn't). The $644 level seems to be key with many technicians. They want to see the stock penetrate that level with gusto and then perhaps we'll be off to the races. There also seems to be a great deal of chatter in the community as far as a stock's behavior after a split. There are those who believe that people like to round-off their shares and so may sell some...hence pressuring the stock. There are others who think that the lower stock price (visually) will have the retail investor salivating to buy and will cause the "manipulators" much angst as it will be more difficult to move the stock volume-wise. Any or all of these theories may be true but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Enjoy the day! PS FYI: Never make the assumption that the articles posted are from reputable sources. We all know which are biased or which are nothing but rumors for the most part but I think it's always good to have a sampling of what's out there.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 4, 2014 4:07:24 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2014 4:12:04 GMT -8
Entertaining that Ihnatko is the kind of customer Apple doesn't really target. The fickle one.
And switched to Android for whatever reasons. There was never any reason to be concerned for the future of Apple. But he sure has a fun dramatic storyline going on in his head.
Truth is? Forstall issues aside, don't call it a comeback. Apple hasn't stagnated one bit. In the post-Forstall era they just might be positively _unleashed_.
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 4, 2014 4:17:33 GMT -8
For those on Twitter, avoid clickbait by following @savedyouaclick
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 4, 2014 4:40:28 GMT -8
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Post by greyfox15 on Jun 4, 2014 4:43:21 GMT -8
Long........ from NYTimes WWDC Dissected: A New Era for Apple, but an End for Some Apps By MOLLY WOOD and FARHAD MANJOO JUNE 3, 2014 8:44 AM
As it tends to do a few times a year, the technology industry paused on Monday for a day of product news and promises from Apple. Making iOS and the Macintosh operating systems work better? Check. A Snapchat competitor? Check. Better cloud computing capabilities? Check. But was Apple worthy of the attention? New York Times columnists Molly Wood and Farhad Manjoo discuss Apple’s marathon of product announcements:
Molly: Apple’s WWDC 2014 keynote started out all too predictably, and I was expecting yet another self-congratulatory parade of minor design tweaks presented as major innovations and market catch-up features presented as new, exciting developments. The first half of the keynote had that: slightly translucent interface changes to the newly announced OS X Yosemite for Macs, interactive notifications and the repair of head-slapping omissions like the ability to AirDrop files between OS X and iOS. But then two things happened: First, Apple announced some pretty impressive interoperability between iOS and Mac OS X that we’ll get into later, and then it announced a series of developer tools that have the potential to really reshape the way Apple interacts with its customers and its developers. From my perspective, what Apple did at WWDC was present a vision of itself as a company that sits at the center of a lot of different services and products and provides a smooth user interface for them to talk to each other. You saw a begrudging yet surprising openness to other platforms (iCloud Drive will be supported on Windows, and text messages that don’t come from iPhones will show up in the iMessage interface), and even some long-awaited personalization options, like the ability to install third-party keyboards. Over all, I was impressed with the “developer” half of this developer conference keynote. I suspect we’ll view this year as the real beginning of the post-Jobs Apple. There were some subtle but powerful psychological shifts on display. Given Apple’s power in the marketplace, some of them – like a health and fitness clearinghouse, a smart home automation development kit, and a serious foray into cloud hosting and development environments – could have big effects down the road. Plus, did I mention the third-party keyboards!? That is huge!
Farhad: So we pretty much agree, except for the part about expecting a parade of minor design tweaks. My expectations were not that low, but I will admit to a sense of apathy beforehand. We had all heard the rumors that there would not be anything huge here; I had even considered skipping the show. And I too wasn’t bowled over by the initial design changes in OS X Yosemite – feel the translucency! But then Apple began to pile surprise upon surprise. It improved its software’s core functionality in ways that I had long ago ruled out, and it significantly expanded the power that third-party developers have in iOS. I think I’m generally more of a fan of Apple’s mobile OS than you are, but there have been obvious frustrations that I had decided I had to live with if I wanted to keep using an iPhone. For instance, the fact that I couldn’t add an app like Dropbox to the share menu. Or that I have got to go through hoops to add a link-shortening shortcut to Safari. All the little power-user customizations I’m used to on my desktop and in most other computing environments have long been shut out on the iPhone and iPad. Mostly, I have been O.K. with these sacrifices. To the extent that Apple felt that it had to make a choice between keeping iOS simple for novices and making it powerful enough to satisfy experts, I think it made the right decision in siding with novices. It is no mystery why surveys show that people who own Android devices use their phones and tablets far less than people who own Apple devices. With its endless customizability to satisfy developers and power users, Android became an OS that is too difficult and frustrating for many nonexperts. But today, as you say, we are seeing a big shift in Apple’s thinking. It would be too simplistic – and wrong – to say it is aping the Android model. But the company does seem to be trying to offer developers the power of Android while still preserving the ease of use we associate with Apple. This is, as a technical matter, a difficult problem. And I wonder how well Apple’s new developer tools will play out in practice. Will all the various third-party extensions clutter your phone? Will third-party keyboards invite malware or invasions of your privacy? Will the whole OS still feel welcoming to novices? I don’t know. But I’m happy to see this play out. And I’m very surprised. On OS X Yosemite Molly: I think we both agree that the coolest announcements concerning Yosemite (yes, that’s the name) have to do with the Handoff capabilities between iOS and OS X. You’ll be able to see text messages in the iMessage interface, see who’s calling your phone as a pop-up on your computer and even answer the call – and even place calls from either your contacts or say, a web page. Proximity awareness will let your phone know you are near your computer and either automatically create a Wi-Fi hot spot or pass off an email that is in progress. Personally, the latter sounds like a battery killer to me; always-on proximity means the phone is always listening, right? And the email handoff requires you to be using the Mail app, which almost no one I know uses. Same with the ability to get texts in iMessage – presumably, you have to use iMessage, which I do not. Those things sound handy, but instead of having constant pop-ups on my phone or computer nudging me to migrate to a different device, I’m a lot more interested in seamless cloud-based sharing, maybe in the newly announced iCloud Drive, and smooth AirDrop capabilities. (Although I do really want the caller ID on my computer. That’s pretty great.) Farhad: Handoff was my favorite thing of the day. That’s not because it looks like it will be able to do much of anything, yet, that I can’t already do through other methods. I can already start an email on my phone and finish it on my computer (I use Gmail). I can already hand off web windows between different machines (I use Chrome). I can even get phone calls to ring my computer (I use Google Voice, which works in Google’s Hangouts app). But all of my solutions to multimachine complexity – all of which are run by Google – feel piecemeal, and they are not at all easy to use. Handoff might not offer much of anything novel now, but I’m intrigued by its long-term potential. Managing the transitions between lots of different computing devices could very well be the primary software problem of the next five to 10 years. And until now, Apple had pretty much ignored the problem. Handoff and iCloud Drive suggest that the company is now going to put serious effort into making your many devices work together as one. And it’s going to do so in an Apple-y way, making the transitions between your devices one-touch and automatic. If it works (which is always a question with Apple’s cloud stuff) it could be the beginning a big improvement in how we manage the headache of owning too many gadgets. On iOS 8 Molly: For me, Health and the HealthKit framework, plus HomeKit, were the most interesting announcements in iOS 8, or at least the ones with the most long-term potential. I guess I’ll probably come to appreciate family sharing and interactive notifications, but if my iPhone can become a true clearinghouse for storing health and fitness information from apps, wearables and even medical databases or doctors’ offices, that could be huge. And home automation is looking for a unifying principle: right now it’s a lot of disparate devices with varying control mechanisms. If developers start building devices that can talk to iPhones and iPads – a way that people are already starting to control light bulbs and Nest thermostats – they can really corner that market. I also like that Apple is opening up TouchID for use by other apps, although mine almost never works. Farhad: I’m lukewarm on HealthKit and HomeKit. Both could transform two chaotic sectors of the so-called “Internet of Things” into something useful. But I wouldn’t be surprised to seem them failing on the launchpad for the same reasons that Apple’s card-managing app PassBook never took off. Both will need buy-in from device makers, and I’m not sure many makers of health and home devices want to turn over all of their user interaction to Apple, which could well become a competitor in both markets. So we’ll see. Molly, is it really true that your Touch ID almost never works? Mine works almost all the time, and I feel safer keeping it on. I can’t wait until other apps get to tap into it. Molly: It’s true. It almost never works. But I’m open to the possibility that it’s just faulty hardware – I just don’t have time to go have it checked out. On “Extensibility” Molly: I think app extensibility is the biggest announcement of the day. The ability for apps to talk to other apps and to Apple apps will address one of my biggest complaints about my iPhone compared with my Android phone. Right now, apps can’t talk to each other or to default apps – or really even the OS, at least not very much. That limits the platform’s ability to do true contextual computing, it prevents things like password managers from autofilling passwords in apps, which I can do on Android with LastPass, and it puts the information in one app in a little silo when it could be useful to many others. Also, extensibility is the key to things like smartwatch integration (so maybe they don’t have to build their own), to HealthKit and HomeKit integration and to so many of the other services they announced today. To me, this is a sign of Apple maturing into the spider at the center of the web. You don’t have to build everything when you can work with everything: that’s a huge change in Apple’s thinking, in my opinion. I’ve been saying for a long time that Apple won’t make a TV and maybe won’t even make a watch. It would be easier to build those things now that they have these new frameworks in place, but they might not need to, when they can just control someone else’s TV or smartwatch or fitness wearable. Farhad: Yup, I totally agree, as I said above. But let me say something else about developers. What do you think of the fact that Apple is now baking into its apps so many features that were first deployed by outside developers? (It borrowed from Dropbox, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Android and Windows Phone, as far as I can tell.) Is this unfair, or just part of the game? And more to the point: Do you think it will dissuade developers from banking on iOS? I’ll answer my own question in the negative. The App Store is too lucrative a place for many developers to quit out of a sense of being wronged. Apple’s liberal borrowing also helps users – they get innovative features without having to download any apps. But as I said on Twitter, it is cocky of Apple to use its developer conference to release a bunch of features aimed directly at third-party apps. One More Thing Molly: Let’s just say it like it is: a lot of features we saw announced this week are catch-up features, like cloud-based photo sharing with auto-uploading and instant photo touch-ups à la Google’s “auto-awesome” feature. I was happy to see iCloud pricing come down, though, to just under $50 a year for 200GB. Still worth noting that you only get 5GB for free, however, compared to Flickr’s 1TB free. But there’s a lot of benefit in auto-uploading to a service that is integrated into all your Apple devices, if you are an all-Apple household. But features like predictive typing that learns from your language are pretty obvious, as are accessing Siri by saying “hey, Siri” or being able to swipe a message to the left to delete it in mobile Mail app. I’m glad they are there, but I’m not going to pretend they are new inventions. Farhad: I’m happy about the iCloud price cut too, but not that happy. Apple has more than $150 billion in cash. Last year, it decided to give away many of its own apps and its operating system updates for free. So would it really kill Apple to let me store all my photos on all my devices in iCloud, for free? I swear to you, if Apple made this promise – if you buy an iDevice, you’ll get storage for every photo you take as long as you keep your device – it would make for a killer ad campaign. Never worry about losing another photo again. Who wouldn’t buy that?
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 4, 2014 4:54:45 GMT -8
One group made happy by Apple's conference: Bitcoin enthusiasts. Apple announced a change to its Apple App Store policies that would allow users to transfer Bitcoin payments. Phrased another way, that means Apple is reversing itself and allowing Bitcoin wallet apps to be used on the iPhone and sold in the App Store. Only months ago, Apple was removing such apps, raising the ire of Bitcoin proponents. www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/520799
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jun 4, 2014 5:06:26 GMT -8
So WSJ had two Android fans review WWDC? <eyeroll>
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 5:13:41 GMT -8
I haven't had time to look but somewhere someone must have done a study of post split stock performance - that said - every company is different except I am tired of ONLY hearing about the Mastercard example. Does anyone know of a study off hand?
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Post by aapltini on Jun 4, 2014 6:44:06 GMT -8
I agree with every bit of analysis you've ever shared, Phoebes, except that the year is half over. With my January calls still underwater I just can't let you give away a month. June 30th is halfway point
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Post by gtrplyr on Jun 4, 2014 7:00:31 GMT -8
I haven't had time to look but somewhere someone must have done a study of post split stock performance - that said - every company is different except I am tired of ONLY hearing about the Mastercard example. Does anyone know of a study off hand? I'm not sure you will find anything that is actually representative of AAPL's situation. AAPL is breaking every rule as a company and a stock .... I think we are in for a very nice run when the split happens. Of course, the first week could have some extreme volatility but after a few months when people quit "multiplying by 7" there is a lot of upside. Cheers to the longs !
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 4, 2014 7:24:10 GMT -8
Well, we are at 644 and change. Do we hit the ceiling or break through?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 4, 2014 7:35:58 GMT -8
Could still be part of a retrace, but less likely now. Would think 660s is next stopping point.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 7:36:53 GMT -8
I would think that it will take seven times as much momentum on Monday to move AAPL one point as compared to now. The split should provide a type of smoothing function to AAPL volatility.
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Post by yellowhandman on Jun 4, 2014 7:42:10 GMT -8
I would think that it will take seven times as much momentum on Monday to move AAPL one point as compared to now. The split should provide a type of smoothing function to AAPL volatility. On the contrary, post-split it might actually take seven times LESS momentum. It's completely irrational, but psychologically there'll be many retail investors who feel 'safer' buying at 100 than 700.
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Post by zzmac on Jun 4, 2014 7:43:36 GMT -8
I would think that it will take seven times as much momentum on Monday to move AAPL one point as compared to now. The split should provide a type of smoothing function to AAPL volatility. On the contrary, post-split it might actually take seven times LESS momentum. It's completely irrational, but psychologically there'll be many retail investors who feel 'safer' buying at 100 than 700. I like the way you think.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 4, 2014 7:47:14 GMT -8
I would think that it will take seven times as much momentum on Monday to move AAPL one point as compared to now. The split should provide a type of smoothing function to AAPL volatility. On the contrary, post-split it might actually take seven times LESS momentum. It's completely irrational, but psychologically there'll be many retail investors who feel 'safer' buying at 100 than 700. Agree. Split is good. Human nature to favor quantity.
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Post by macglenn on Jun 4, 2014 7:54:10 GMT -8
yep, a lot of traders see price fluctuation rather than looking at percentage. Meaning a penny move post split is no different than it was pre split. I say we see more volatility.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Jun 4, 2014 8:01:12 GMT -8
I posted this on May 7th: I was curious about the effect that a stock split might have on the daily movement of the stock. When a share of the stock is worth 1/7 of what it was, will it move 1/7 as far each day? If we normally see moves of 7 points per day will we now see moves on just one point per day? This seems important in terms of the daily fluctuations one would see in the total value of the portfolio. I looked at the last split in February of 2005. In the year prior to the split, the average of the absolute value of the daily change was .791 points. After a 2-1 split, the average of the absolute value of the daily change over the next year was 1.146. It looks like this is going to be a wild ride I don't know it a 7:1 split will behave the same as a 2:1, but it makes sense to me that the bid and ask points will still tend to be the same spread as they were before. If this is the case, the psychology of fear and greed should behave the same, so I do expect us to continue to see 2-5 point moves on a daily basis. This stock is not going to be for the faint of heart after the split. Add to that the probability that many people have up to half their portfolio in Apple if they have held it for 5 years or more. As I said before....a wild ride
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2014 8:10:44 GMT -8
Sentiment has clearly turned on this stock, judging by the market's reaction to a software-only WWDC and the groundswell support of its strategy. Soon, we'll be talking about when AAPL reaches $200 post-split. Apple gave its Investor page the iOS7 treatment. Looks nice. investor.apple.com
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Post by rickag on Jun 4, 2014 8:15:23 GMT -8
AAPL @ $92/share. $100 within spitting distance.
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Post by yellowhandman on Jun 4, 2014 8:23:36 GMT -8
I would also emphasise that there have been an unusual number of POSITIVE articles about AAPL after the WWDC keynote. Yes, there's been the usual FUD, but also several articles who recognise that the tone of WWDC seems to be laying the groundwork for a very aggressive 2H 2014.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 8:45:44 GMT -8
October 700 calls 20,000 October 675 calls 10,000
Both of these were bought today. Yes, BOUGHT - do not argue with me whether they were bought or sold - they were bought. Someone is taking a bet. Option Monster's John Najarian saw the flow on the exchange and this is the second time this morning that he has said it. I don't care if your view of him is that he is dumb or smart - he is not telling you to buy or sell AAPL - he is merely communicating sizable transactions that he is seeing out there. I - for one - appreciate knowing that activity.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2014 8:51:41 GMT -8
30,000 contracts, to control 3M shares worth of leverage fairly short-term? Sheesh! DAMN YOU AGAIN CARL ICAHN AND PHIL MICKELSON don't mind me (still kidding)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 8:52:55 GMT -8
I would think that it will take seven times as much momentum on Monday to move AAPL one point as compared to now. The split should provide a type of smoothing function to AAPL volatility. On the contrary, post-split it might actually take seven times LESS momentum. It's completely irrational, but psychologically there'll be many retail investors who feel 'safer' buying at 100 than 700. I humbly disagree but I also think we may be saying different things. I agree that the retail investor will be more involved - if you read my post this morning I already said that but there is somewhat of a smoothing function by mere virtue of the number of shares. It's too long to get into the detail but think about it like less dollars being deployed - how many dollars will it take to move the stock and how far will it move now versus then (not a great example but first that comes to mind). Let's agree to disagree - not every view on this board needs to be controversial or argued and to be honest, whatever makes this thing go up, whether I am proven right or wrong, is fine with me....hakuna matata.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2014 8:53:52 GMT -8
30,000 contracts, to control 3M shares worth of leverage fairly short-term? Sheesh! DAMN YOU AGAIN CARL ICAHN AND PHIL MICKELSON don't mind me (still kidding) It's Walters I tell ya!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2014 8:58:36 GMT -8
I don't watch CNBC anymore for ANYTHING, so I don't know what Jon's record is as of late. However, I agree with Phoebes that the options were BOUGHT, which is bullish. However, institutions are likely writing these calls, and we know what happens when call walls get overbuilt: It's a cause for concern.
I'm not sure why he picked October though, as it would be prudent to buy November's instead to ensure October earnings are reported (the buyer is making a big bet that iPhone 6 is going to be a world-beater). Perhaps the call holder may just be in them for just the next month.
These calls are not exactly cheap, with Apple trading near $650 today.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 4, 2014 8:59:59 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 4, 2014 9:01:48 GMT -8
Nice push through $644. Upward and onward
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Post by dreamRaj on Jun 4, 2014 9:19:20 GMT -8
With this positive sentiment and momentum, opening around $95 (665) on Monday should easily drive us to an ATH before the week ends.
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