Post by phoebear611 on Jun 24, 2014 3:01:37 GMT -8
Good morning folks
While you were sleeping:
Asia: mixed
Europe: mixed
US futures: red
AAPL in PM: $90.73 (-0.10) or (-0.11%)
Snapshot news on AAPL:
CNET: So does this make us all disciples? : Bono: Apple is 'like a religious cult': www.cnet.com/news/bono-apple-is-like-a-religious-cult/
CNET:Honeymoon with Angela is still not over - I like her. Now can she deliver?: Apple's new retail chief advises newbies to 'stay in your lane': www.cnet.com/news/apples-new-retail-chief-advises-newbies-to-stay-in-your-lane/
Reuters: Japan Display's reliance on iPhone orders rises in 2013/14: finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-displays-reliance-iphone-orders-095351016.html
Patently Apple: Apple's larger iPhone Displays will Appeal to Chinese Consumers: www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2014/06/apples-larger-iphone-displays-will-appeal-to-chinese-consumers.html
apple insider: Google's Nest to open smart home platform, share data with developers including Google: appleinsider.com/articles/14/06/24/googles-nest-to-open-smart-home-platform-share-data-with-developers-including-google
GIGAOM: Nest launches its answer to Apple’s HomeKit with a developer program: gigaom.com/2014/06/23/nest-launches-its-answer-to-apples-homekit-with-a-developer-program/
MacRumors: 12-Inch MacBook Air to Begin Production in 3rd Quarter 2014: www.macrumors.com/2014/06/24/12-inch-macbook-air-production/
QUARTZ: Tim Cook is setting Apple up for its next big hit and he isn’t getting the credit he deserves: qz.com/224151/tim-cook-is-setting-apple-up-for-its-next-big-hit-and-he-isnt-getting-the-credit-he-deserves/
The AAPL Tree: $AAPL Chart Checkup, 6/23/14 Market Close: A Case of the Bearish-Leaning Doldrums: aapltree.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/aapl-chart-checkup-62314-market-close-a-case-of-the-bearish-leaning-doldrums/
JPM out with a few notes (3 separate ones) this morning on AAPL and Smartphones (Increased PT from $89 to $108):
Abstract: Handset forecasts largely unchanged: We are lowering our 2014 handset shipments estimate by a slight -6m or -0.3% to 1,871m, after Q1’14 actuals came in -0.9% or 4m below our forecasts. We are now forecasting handset shipments of 1,956m for 2015 when compared to our previous estimate of 1,955m.
Our View: Smartphone beat, raising estimates: Q1 smartphone shipments at 279m were 8.0% or 21m above our estimate. We believe the beat was driven by stronger than expected 3G smartphones even as LTE smartphones fell short of our expectations. LTE shipments totaled 86m in Q1 ? 7% or 6m below our estimate of 92m. We believe that LTE shipments could pick up in late 2014 as newer versions of the iPhone become available.
While our estimates for total devices are unchanged we note that our smartphone forecasts for the year are increasing. Our top pick against late 2014 smartphone demand remains Apple given our view that a larger iPhone6 drives higher than normal replacements. We also believe that Apple is largely unaffected by the inventory correction we expect in 3G devices.
Abstract: Apple: Updating Model for Recent Developments and Review of 10-Q Details. Reiterate Overweight, Rod Hall, CFA: We update our model to reflect Apple’s $12bn debt offering and the 7-for-1 stock split. We establish a post split Dec 2015 price target of $108 reflecting an ex-cash PE of 11.1x
2014 Handset Outlook Update: Smartphones Running Ahead but Inventory Correction a Possibility, Overall Handsets Unchanged, Rod Hall, CFA: We are lowering our 2014 handset shipments estimate by a slight -0.3% to 1,871m, after Q1’14 actuals came in -0.9% below our forecasts. We are increasing our 2014 smartphone shipment forecast by 3.7% to 1,157m and our 2015 estimate by 1.2% to 1,217m after the beat in Q1. However, we believe that the risk is to the downside vs. our estimates as we are concerned about a 3G driven smartphone inventory correction in Q2 and Q3.
Abstract: We are updating our model to reflect Apple’s $12bn debt offering and the 7-for-1 stock split. We are establishing a post split Dec 2015 price target of $108 reflecting an ex-cash PE of 11.1x.
Thesis unchanged: We continue to believe that Apple is on the cusp of multiple new product launches that are likely to reinvigorate earnings growth relative to Street expectations. While an iWatch on its own is unlikely to move the needle by much, our non-consensus view that what we are calling “iAnywhere” is likely to launch in early 2015 does have a potential material positive impact on earnings growth.
Baseband speculation: Appleinsider carried a story yesterday speculating on the possibility of using Intel’s LTE baseband solution in 2015 iPhone models (story here). We believe this is a possibility in 2015 as alternatives to Qualcomm’s industry leading LTE baseband become available. We also note that we continue to believe Apple would ultimately like to use their own baseband design.
Valuation: We are establishing a Dec 2015 target price of $108 based on an ex-cash P/E of 11.1x (CY15E), which is almost inline with QCOM’s CY15 P/E of 11.4x.
Enjoy the day!
While you were sleeping:
Asia: mixed
Europe: mixed
US futures: red
AAPL in PM: $90.73 (-0.10) or (-0.11%)
Snapshot news on AAPL:
CNET: So does this make us all disciples? : Bono: Apple is 'like a religious cult': www.cnet.com/news/bono-apple-is-like-a-religious-cult/
CNET:Honeymoon with Angela is still not over - I like her. Now can she deliver?: Apple's new retail chief advises newbies to 'stay in your lane': www.cnet.com/news/apples-new-retail-chief-advises-newbies-to-stay-in-your-lane/
Reuters: Japan Display's reliance on iPhone orders rises in 2013/14: finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-displays-reliance-iphone-orders-095351016.html
Patently Apple: Apple's larger iPhone Displays will Appeal to Chinese Consumers: www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2014/06/apples-larger-iphone-displays-will-appeal-to-chinese-consumers.html
apple insider: Google's Nest to open smart home platform, share data with developers including Google: appleinsider.com/articles/14/06/24/googles-nest-to-open-smart-home-platform-share-data-with-developers-including-google
GIGAOM: Nest launches its answer to Apple’s HomeKit with a developer program: gigaom.com/2014/06/23/nest-launches-its-answer-to-apples-homekit-with-a-developer-program/
MacRumors: 12-Inch MacBook Air to Begin Production in 3rd Quarter 2014: www.macrumors.com/2014/06/24/12-inch-macbook-air-production/
QUARTZ: Tim Cook is setting Apple up for its next big hit and he isn’t getting the credit he deserves: qz.com/224151/tim-cook-is-setting-apple-up-for-its-next-big-hit-and-he-isnt-getting-the-credit-he-deserves/
The AAPL Tree: $AAPL Chart Checkup, 6/23/14 Market Close: A Case of the Bearish-Leaning Doldrums: aapltree.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/aapl-chart-checkup-62314-market-close-a-case-of-the-bearish-leaning-doldrums/
JPM out with a few notes (3 separate ones) this morning on AAPL and Smartphones (Increased PT from $89 to $108):
Abstract: Handset forecasts largely unchanged: We are lowering our 2014 handset shipments estimate by a slight -6m or -0.3% to 1,871m, after Q1’14 actuals came in -0.9% or 4m below our forecasts. We are now forecasting handset shipments of 1,956m for 2015 when compared to our previous estimate of 1,955m.
Our View: Smartphone beat, raising estimates: Q1 smartphone shipments at 279m were 8.0% or 21m above our estimate. We believe the beat was driven by stronger than expected 3G smartphones even as LTE smartphones fell short of our expectations. LTE shipments totaled 86m in Q1 ? 7% or 6m below our estimate of 92m. We believe that LTE shipments could pick up in late 2014 as newer versions of the iPhone become available.
While our estimates for total devices are unchanged we note that our smartphone forecasts for the year are increasing. Our top pick against late 2014 smartphone demand remains Apple given our view that a larger iPhone6 drives higher than normal replacements. We also believe that Apple is largely unaffected by the inventory correction we expect in 3G devices.
Abstract: Apple: Updating Model for Recent Developments and Review of 10-Q Details. Reiterate Overweight, Rod Hall, CFA: We update our model to reflect Apple’s $12bn debt offering and the 7-for-1 stock split. We establish a post split Dec 2015 price target of $108 reflecting an ex-cash PE of 11.1x
2014 Handset Outlook Update: Smartphones Running Ahead but Inventory Correction a Possibility, Overall Handsets Unchanged, Rod Hall, CFA: We are lowering our 2014 handset shipments estimate by a slight -0.3% to 1,871m, after Q1’14 actuals came in -0.9% below our forecasts. We are increasing our 2014 smartphone shipment forecast by 3.7% to 1,157m and our 2015 estimate by 1.2% to 1,217m after the beat in Q1. However, we believe that the risk is to the downside vs. our estimates as we are concerned about a 3G driven smartphone inventory correction in Q2 and Q3.
Abstract: We are updating our model to reflect Apple’s $12bn debt offering and the 7-for-1 stock split. We are establishing a post split Dec 2015 price target of $108 reflecting an ex-cash PE of 11.1x.
Thesis unchanged: We continue to believe that Apple is on the cusp of multiple new product launches that are likely to reinvigorate earnings growth relative to Street expectations. While an iWatch on its own is unlikely to move the needle by much, our non-consensus view that what we are calling “iAnywhere” is likely to launch in early 2015 does have a potential material positive impact on earnings growth.
Baseband speculation: Appleinsider carried a story yesterday speculating on the possibility of using Intel’s LTE baseband solution in 2015 iPhone models (story here). We believe this is a possibility in 2015 as alternatives to Qualcomm’s industry leading LTE baseband become available. We also note that we continue to believe Apple would ultimately like to use their own baseband design.
Valuation: We are establishing a Dec 2015 target price of $108 based on an ex-cash P/E of 11.1x (CY15E), which is almost inline with QCOM’s CY15 P/E of 11.4x.
Enjoy the day!