Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 25, 2014 3:44:25 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Nov 25, 2014 3:54:37 GMT -8
….and the 7th trade in at 4.08am was $119.45
we are going to need to see some solid results reported to support this exuberance.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 25, 2014 4:34:35 GMT -8
I'm with Mercel on this. We are correcting to the proper valuation. One cannot seriously look at this stock and make the statement that it is "overvalued" in any way, shape, or form with a straight face. Mercel for President....and a chicken (turkey) in every pot! I'm wondering what will happen as liquidity starts to really dry up after today both in the market and in the stock. Tomorrow and Friday are skeleton crews on WS so moves can be exacerbated. Would love to see a $120 number...certainly not inconceivable.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 25, 2014 4:46:17 GMT -8
Some additional factors to consider...
Trading typically tapers off early tomorrow, Wednesday, and Friday is a half day with the markets closing at 1PM.
There is a winter storm warning for Northern New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania (I-80 Corridor) from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon, with a prediction of 4 to 8 inches of snow here in Morristown. If this storm materializes... and moves just a little east (NYC)... the market will be very slow...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 25, 2014 5:35:34 GMT -8
I agree that AAPL is finally 'correcting' to its proper valuation. However nature abhors straight lines.
For those curmudgeons who say TA is squiggly lines, I agree -- way to much 'art' not enough science. Unfortunately, the algo's like them and run on them. Whether we fundamentally (couldn't resist the pun) agree or not is irrelevant. At some point, they became self fulfilling prophecies -- even moreso in the days of high frequency trading.
Knowing that the algo's are there and anticipating what they will do is smart investing. One can avoid buying at the peaks and selling at bottoms.
As much as I would like to ride the express elevator to infinity, a pullback is likely somewhere in here. $122 is the next critical point the TA priests are discussing. Pull backs are typically 10% - 15% so the good news is that having breeched $118 sub $100 is now very unlikely. YEAH!
Most of my buying and selling is in options around my core position. I typically do spreads and use these 'technical points' to optimize the buying and selling of legs. I am still net long but will likely be flat by $122. If AAPL continues to run, I will safely enjoy further gains. If it pulls back I am protected and positioned to buy back short legs at a significant discount, rinse and do it again. I do not go net short.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 25, 2014 7:00:43 GMT -8
Apple at a 700 billion market cap......too low in my book
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 25, 2014 7:31:12 GMT -8
Apple at a 700 billion market cap......too low in my book I like how you think. Yes it's up since the beginning of the year but all we have seen is about 20% since the high from '12 .... I'd say we have a way to go based on fundamentals. Of course, I can't imagine it going up in a straight line and pullbacks will come .... since I'm terrible at trying to time the market I'll just have to sit through them and wait it out. Until I see some sort of crack in Apple's Business model or a competitor step up with something that looks like it can give Apple competition in the high end mobile space I'm not going to worry. Cheers to the longs
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Post by valere on Nov 25, 2014 7:57:33 GMT -8
I am also terrible at timing the market and I want to enjoy the ride up , bought some Jan 2 , 111 puts ( I like the lucky 777 pre split ;-) ) for 80 cents... I refuse to go back to the depression of 2012 -13...I was down around 350 K at one point from the highs ...spending 5k for insurance seems more expensive but less addictive then Valium # peaceofmind
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Post by rob_london on Nov 25, 2014 8:03:16 GMT -8
I haven't had a chance to watch it yet but Professor Aswath Damodaran discussed Apple (at the 50 minute mark) in his keynote presentation at the CFA Institute Conference: Equity Research and Valuation 2014: new.livestream.com/livecfa/damodaran2014
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 25, 2014 8:07:04 GMT -8
Apple at a 700 billion market cap......too low in my book I like how you think. Yes it's up since the beginning of the year but all we have seen is about 20% since the high from '12 .... I'd say we have a way to go based on fundamentals.... Yep. Share price is up almost 20% while market cap is up less than 6% since the 2012 high. Plenty of upside.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Nov 25, 2014 8:24:36 GMT -8
I am also terrible at timing the market and I want to enjoy the ride up , bought some Jan 2 , 111 puts ( I like the lucky 777 pre split ;-) ) for 80 cents... I refuse to go back to the depression of 2012 -13...I was down around 350 K at one point from the highs ...spending 5k for insurance seems more expensive but less addictive then Valium # peaceofmind I am not sure it is less addictive. I can get through the day without drugs easier than i can get through without checking stock prices. I have noticed that I do have some control however. i seldom check them more than 10 times on Saturday and Sunday.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 25, 2014 9:03:29 GMT -8
I'd like to revise and extend my remarks from last night to emphasize one thing. The current S&P 500 P/E average is 20. AAPL's P/E is currently 18.5. So that means AAPL is priced like a less than average S&P 500 company. Anyone who doesn't mention Apple's low P/E in some Big Scary Market Cap discussion is just trolling. And any analyst worth his darts should be replying, "list all of the S&P 500 companies that deserve a high P/E than Apple." Game over. Unfortunately, Munster failed on CNBC today, from the article I read this morning. Of all people, Jim Cramer made this point this morning ( CNBC video alert) to the F-ing moron David Faber on CNBC who dared utter that "law of large numbers" bullshit. Where do they get these people? Aren't there a lot of smart people who want to be on TV?
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 25, 2014 9:37:18 GMT -8
It should be called the Law of Large Round Numbers or something, because it really means that people pay attention and assign meaning to a big round number, like a trillion dollar market cap or a $700, $800, $900, or $1000 share price. In reality they're just numbers, no more or less meaningful than any other arbitrary number and have no inherent meaning. But psychologically people get fixated and fearful. I have no doubt that the 7-for-1 split didn't cause AAPL to go up directly, but it released it from the mis-pricing which was largely the psychological misapprehension that $700 was a scary, expensive, large, round number.
So here we are over $700 billion at today's high. That "scary" 700 again. At least people pay less attention to market cap than share price, so hopefully it shouldn't have the same psychological hold this time. With a market cap up only 5-6% since the 2012 high and a below market P/E (as JD and Cramer remind us), AAPL has plenty of room to go up!
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 25, 2014 9:43:37 GMT -8
What's with this red crap. I don't like it
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Post by rickag on Nov 25, 2014 9:48:42 GMT -8
Last I checked AAPL was at ~$119.60, what happened?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 25, 2014 10:02:39 GMT -8
That will teach me to run errands...
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on Nov 25, 2014 10:03:22 GMT -8
Last I checked AAPL was at ~$119.60, what happened? Pretty high volume compared to average. Any of you day traders see any large AAPL dumps? Could $700B market cap have triggered some algos?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 25, 2014 10:07:34 GMT -8
Dips are Santa coming early - buying opportunities. Just entered an order. Unfortunately, I was showering at the low. Phoebe warned about low volume nearing Thanksgiving. I intend to capitalize on it should there be drops. YMMV.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 25, 2014 10:57:25 GMT -8
I got a PM regarding some terminology I've been using, spreads and legs. I thought others might find the explanation helpful.
Spreads are a technique in which one simultaneously buys and sells the same number of options in the same stock, usually at different strike prices though it can be with different expiration dates or even both. The separate buy and sell transactions are called legs, meaning a simple spread transaction has two legs.
Why would someone enter a spread? Spreads are a used to place a bet on the general direction of a stock, while limiting your investment and exposure.
Example, using December 20, 2014 Expiration options: $119's are trading at $2.40. $120's are trading at 2.00. If we open a spread position by buying the $119's and selling the $120's simultaneously our net investment is $0.40 -- the difference between what we paid for the 119's and got for the 120's. This $0.40 is our full risk on the position. We cannot lose more. Of course, the upside has also been limited to $0.60 (150%). As we approach expiration, if both strikes are in the money (i.e. AAPL is trading above $120) the difference between them will approach the difference in the strike prices, in this case $1.
One does not 'have' to buy the legs simultaneously. In the time I've typed, the prices have changed to $2.50 and $2.05 respectively. Had I bought a leg at $2.40 and waited to sell my other leg at $2.05, the difference is now $0.35 and the potential gain $0.65. Minor price changes have an enormous impact on potential yields -- either way. While 'legging in' you are 'naked'. External forces can and do impact in ways we do not expect, e.g. the FED announces they've raised interest rates. This is not something to do cavalierly. I have been burned legging into positions.
As with everything Wall Street, one can get fancy, doing every conceivable permutation -- for instance using more than one leg, e.g. cover 119's with a mix of 120's and 121's. In principle it all boils down to the same thing. The more complex, the easier it is to make mistakes and be exposed in ways you didn't intend or even imagine...
A spread position, like anything else, can be managed. For instance, I have been rolling the long legs of my spreads out, meaning I've been selling January 15's and buying 16's and 17's. One has to be careful to ensure the risk is covered. The 16's and 17's I've bought all have strikes below my January 15 short legs. If not, I could find myself in a squeeze.
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Post by rickag on Nov 25, 2014 11:04:27 GMT -8
Well its been a while but AAPL is on the buying on weakness list with a ratio for block trades = 4.91. 4.91 times as much money on upticks than downticks for block trades, not especially high but someone is buying.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 25, 2014 11:18:40 GMT -8
What's with this red crap. I don't like it I don't know how RedinAustin feels, but I resent such remarks......
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Post by nwjade on Nov 25, 2014 11:33:10 GMT -8
Reminds me of the time back about 1991 talking with my broker on the phone. I wanted to buy more MSFT and he wanted me to buy whatever he was pushing and said 'It's at 50 billion market cap now how much higher do you think it can possibly go' Well it went on to top out at 616 billion. Inflation adjusted that's about 90b - 850b. There will be trillion dollar companies in the future that's for sure. Will Apple be first? It has a great chance IMHO
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 25, 2014 12:03:59 GMT -8
What's with this red crap. I don't like it I don't know how RedinAustin feels, but I resent such remarks...... I knew it. It's all you fault!
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Post by infohunter on Nov 25, 2014 13:49:28 GMT -8
I went back and watched the Sept. 9th Apple event on the Apple Watch again. What did Tim Cook mean when he said his favorite thing about his Apple Watch was controling his Apple TV? ?
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Post by rob_london on Nov 25, 2014 13:52:25 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 25, 2014 16:17:35 GMT -8
I went back and watched the Sept. 9th Apple event on the Apple Watch again. What did Tim Cook mean when he said his favorite thing about his Apple Watch was controling his Apple TV? ? Well let's hope that means a new and elegant approach to controlling the ATV. God, I hate hunting and pecking out letters when trying to Search on it. Can't believe we still have to do that, esp. when the competition has some voice controls on theirs . . . Looking forward to new products and software in the coming months.
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Post by rezonate on Nov 25, 2014 16:34:14 GMT -8
Well let's hope that means a new and elegant approach to controlling the ATV. God, I hate hunting and pecking out letters when trying to Search on it. Can't believe we still have to do that, esp. when the competition has some voice controls on theirs . . . Looking forward to new products and software in the coming months. Hi Ted, maybe consider picking up a small Bluetooth keyboard? You can pair the keyboard with your Apple TV and just type in searches that way. I got one similar to this for another project and it works great. You can even use the arrow keys to navigate, enter to select, and escape to go back a menu. www.adafruit.com/products/922?gclid=CNCyzdiCl8ICFfEF7AodRycAww (The one shown at the link uses a USB dongle, but they have several small bluetooth keyboards now for smart phones and tablets.)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 25, 2014 16:49:16 GMT -8
Brian White, sharp as always, hitting on AAPL's low PE. Emily Chang, a dopey tard as always, ringing the "OMG Market Cap!" trololol. She seemed like a prosecutor attacking Apple. This is why I don't watch financial TV shows.
Great comment about Coca Cola and brown sugar water. Went right over Emily's ditzy head though. Why don't Google and Microsoft and Facebook and Twitter and Exxon and Visa have to come out with a new thing every year?
As I warned last night, this market cap troll is all we heard today, and it hit the stock a little. A bullshit media-created meme.
Buying opp!
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 25, 2014 16:52:48 GMT -8
What exactly happens when Apple reaches a Trillion Dollar market cap ? I guess people switch over to android and PC's ??
Tired of hearing it but it seems to be gaining more and more traction ....
By any metric AAPL is still cheap .
Cheers to the longs ...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2014 18:43:48 GMT -8
Well, I bought the dip. Not much time here today, in between my attempts to migrate my mac mini server to my new iMac 5k RD machine. What a total PITA, thanks largely to Microsoft and its Windows 7/Office licensing issues. Microsoft might as well post a pic of Nadella giving the finger to customers daring to request any tech support. My 30" Cinema Display has been a trooper for the past 8+ years (Dubya was Prez -- props to Phoebes for the left handed compliment ). An added bonus is that with the new iMac 5k, the squiggly lines are so thin I don't even see them. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FEATURE!! The volume was interesting: It wasn't all me, honest. P.S. Today, PED posted the names of analysts whose price targets are under water. Approx. HALF of them need to update their price targets, which will go HIGHER (I've given up on Maynard Dum with Wells Fargo who has a $94 price target).
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