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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 11, 2014 3:14:29 GMT -8
Futures attempting to rebound ... pushing a bit higher. Oil below $61 Police in Hong Kong clearing out pro-democracy protestors (they are in their 10th week) Ebay considering slashing 3000 jobs (WSJ) after it spins off Pay Pal AAPL currently slightly GREEN and trading in PM at $112.16 ( +0.21) Angelina Jolie referred to as a "minimally talented spoiled brat" in Sony's hacked emails ... but we could insert so many actor names other than Jolie in that description so who really cares but hey, it's the headline of many newspapers this morning.
Virtually no news on AAPL this morning other than that it will launch iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 with LTE support In China this week. Every website has this as its top Apple story.
A new analysis by Above Avalon's Neil Cybert suggest that in order to avoid patriating foreign profits -- which now make up the majority of Apple's revenues -- the company is raiding its US cash reserve and ongoing US revenue to fund its ambitious stock-buyback and dividend programs. Of an estimated $155 billion in cash reserves, Apple has only around $18 billion in the US. Cybert believes that Apple will spend around $30 billion in 2015 on dividends and buybacks, keeping the foreign profits offshore until more favorable tax rates are enacted. That's the gist - actually it's the entire story over at macn
Cardinals vs. Rams on Thursday night football for those who care.
Money ~ let's make some today!
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Post by rob_london on Dec 11, 2014 4:05:16 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 11, 2014 7:46:33 GMT -8
Mace - seeing a few folks saying they thought they saw a mini inverted H & Sh in their micro-counts .... weren't you asking Mav about that. For the most part the blogosphere is saying (technically) they are expecting a bounce to the 116/117 area -- at which point they reassess if we need to turn lower again or will it break out...since there is a potential at that level for a break out. When I read it to my husband he laughs at me and says they sound like the weatherman - it may go up or it may go down - but i do understand what they are saying and I think that tech analysis should be one of the tools in my toolbox
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Post by macwire on Dec 11, 2014 7:53:52 GMT -8
Mace - seeing a few folks saying they thought they saw a mini inverted H & Sh in their micro-counts .... weren't you asking Mav about that. For the most part the blogosphere is saying (technically) they are expecting a bounce to the 116/117 area -- at which point they reassess if we need to turn lower again or will it break out...since there is a potential at that level for a break out. When I read it to my husband he laughs at me and says they sound like the weatherman - it may go up or it may go down - but i do understand what they are saying and I think that tech analysis should be one of the tools in my toolbox Despite the insane volitility I still think the ABCD takes us to 130 if we hold this .382 retracemeant level and that corresponds pretty closely to the stick portion of the bull flag forming here from our 100-120ish run of last 5 weeks. Few things. Death cross 10/50 ma just occurred. Aapl is in a "falling wedge" reversal pattern currently. Wedge breaks out around 114 ...confluence of the 10 and 50 right around 114/115 Trade em good.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 11, 2014 8:24:02 GMT -8
Tim Cook is the FT's Person of the Year for 2014.
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Post by mace on Dec 11, 2014 8:24:21 GMT -8
Mace - seeing a few folks saying they thought they saw a mini inverted H & Sh in their micro-counts .... weren't you asking Mav about that. For the most part the blogosphere is saying (technically) they are expecting a bounce to the 116/117 area -- at which point they reassess if we need to turn lower again or will it break out...since there is a potential at that level for a break out. When I read it to my husband he laughs at me and says they sound like the weatherman - it may go up or it may go down - but i do understand what they are saying and I think that tech analysis should be one of the tools in my toolbox AAPL is touching the top channel line ($113.30, is one of the support/resistance line that drew on my chart, can't remember why I drew it ) of the downtrend started since $119.75. Based on EW, since $109.35 to $114.88 is an impulse, we should expect a three-wave down and then another five waves up, forming: a. 1:1 zigzag at $115 or b. 1:1.618 zigzag giving AAPL at $117 But we don't know whether it is a zigzag or wave 1-2-3 of an impulse. So they are correct to re-assess then. SWAG: For optimists like me, once above 8-day EMA is considered rally has resumed. I'm expecting at least $125 by Jan ER... max $140s Feb-Apr... would be very worried if fail to take $119.75 before Christmas... 14 days more. Edit: For completeness sake, Support/Resistance lines: $109.82 $113.30 $117.29 EMAs monitor by me: 8-day, now $113.99 30-day, now $112.37 50-day, now $109.64 Also, $109.35 is 38.2% retracement of the impulse from $94.77 to $119.75. Question in my mind is: Is $119.75, Primary degree wave 5 of Cycle V of SuperCycle (III) ... expect multi-year sideways Is $119.75, Intermediate degree wave i of wave 5? Hoping for this. Think you can see some unsaid implications... some very bad ones. Btw, I find weather forecasts by Yahoo! is pretty accurate.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 11, 2014 8:30:04 GMT -8
Looks like you line up with the other EW fellas as well. Those are almost the exact levels they are posting.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 11, 2014 9:09:13 GMT -8
The world is ending. The world is not ending. The world is ending. The world is not ending. Take your pick for Friday! The whole oil thing is fascinating. Look at the states that derive large revs from Oil, that's gotta hurt. Alaska changed their oil taxing structure recently. With low prices they're now looking at a billion dollar deficit. This from a state that gives residents a big fat oil check every year. ArticleI don't see how that doesn't trickle down to the rest of the economy at some point. A lot of short-term thinking IMO.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Dec 11, 2014 9:45:54 GMT -8
The world is ending. The world is not ending. The world is ending. The world is not ending. Take your pick for Friday! The whole oil thing is fascinating. Look at the states that derive large revs from Oil, that's gotta hurt. Alaska changed their oil taxing structure recently. With low prices they're now looking at a billion dollar deficit. This from a state that gives residents a big fat oil check every year. ArticleI don't see how that doesn't trickle down to the rest of the economy at some point. A lot of short-term thinking IMO. The payment to Alaska residents comes from the Permanent Fund. The fund has been accumulated from oil profits over the past 35 years. The annual payout to citizens is affected by the funds investments rather than the price of oil. Alaska law prevents the legislature from raiding the fund to pay for government operations. Given the market's performance this year, I would expect the payout to be higher than normal this year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 10:14:49 GMT -8
TA: If AAPL goes up, I make money. If AAPL goes down, I lose money. FA: Apple should report a 45%+ YOY EPS gain over prior December quarter, the HIGHEST increase since its March 2012 quarter (wherein it posted 47% GM). Guidance for the March quarter will be STRONG. If the rumor proves true, iWatch will begin production January 2015, making it more likely the iWatch will launch sooner than later. Against my better judgement, I bought the dip yesterday. Now WTF is Apple still under $120? The stock market is dumber than a box of rocks. appleinsider.com/articles/14/12/11/rumor-apple-watch-set-to-begin-mass-production-in-january
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 10:48:07 GMT -8
I just don't get why WS discounts Apple for its concentration with iPhone. Funny, I never hear about Porsche's dependence on cars or Starbucks reliance on coffee. Are people going to stop talking to one another? Are smartphones going somewhere? They may evolve, perhaps to our wrists, but I think Apple has something up its sleeve (pun intended) on that score... Edit. Autocorrect sucks
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 11, 2014 11:16:52 GMT -8
It seems every December (at least in years where AAPL is up) we hear about fund managers taking profits to lock in gains. Those useless parasites. Maybe it's just a December thing. I do think we might need the big earnings release in Jan (or a run up before in anticipation) to get this weekly ATH thing rolling again. Cheers to those with the brass balls to have BTFD. And I'd just like to reemphasize how doomed I think Google's business model is, and how WS has completely ignored, rather, rewarded GOOG despite its very precarious position. Apple Contract Loss Could Hit Google Revenue Big TimeSomeday, GOOG will make some put holders a lot of money. As for now, the Titanic has hit the iceberg, but they just keep on dancing and partying the night away in first class.
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Post by mace on Dec 11, 2014 12:14:40 GMT -8
Now WTF is Apple still under $120? The stock market is dumber than a box of rocks. You got the ticker wrong. Should be SWKS .
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Post by mace on Dec 11, 2014 12:24:16 GMT -8
TA: If AAPL goes up, I make money. If AAPL goes down, I lose money. Depends which TA you use. As mentioned in the morning, there is a downtrend channel since $119.75. Those who short at the upper channel line and long at the lower channel line made money. Just for info, there is an uptrend channel from mid Oct to late Nov, and a downtrend channel from Sep to mid Oct. Look like simple channel works very well since early Sep. It put all other TA indicators to shame.
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Post by mace on Dec 11, 2014 12:45:21 GMT -8
...FA: Apple should report a 45%+ YOY EPS gain over prior December quarter, the HIGHEST increase since its March 2012 quarter (wherein it posted 47% GM). Guidance for the March quarter will be STRONG... Not so sure about this. Believe institutions are trying hard to assess Watch and Pay potential before committing. From the price behavior, it seems their faith is wavering, alternatively could be trying to raise cash because of the recent high volatility in the broad market. From experience, high volatility usually ends with a thump. This is currently my biggest worry, and not Apple business fundamentals, when broad market falls, everything would be dragged down. We have seen those pictures many many many many .............................. times.
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Post by macwire on Dec 11, 2014 12:50:10 GMT -8
Lame ass close.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 13:10:27 GMT -8
TA: If AAPL goes up, I make money. If AAPL goes down, I lose money. Depends which TA you use. As mentioned in the morning, there is a downtrend channel since $119.75. Those who short at the upper channel line and long at the lower channel line made money. Just for info, there is an uptrend channel from mid Oct to late Nov, and a downtrend channel from Sep to mid Oct. Look like simple channel works very well since early Sep. It put all other TA indicators to shame. Toni Saconnagni may be right. Screw the fundamentals, AAPL has become a trading stock. Next time trades up a buck I'm selling some. Lame close for sure.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 13:31:38 GMT -8
85-90% of all call contract will likely expire worthless this week and next. Institutions are waiting for better entry and others may be selling in anticipation of same.
The call walls are signaling a sale on AAPL is coming.
This stock is so F**ked over by the short term players it's sickening
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 11, 2014 14:48:29 GMT -8
Three of the better Elliotticians over at EWT (one of which has called this move incredibly) see this stock going to the $140 area as well (as Mace mentioned previously). The big debate is what is happening down here and whether we need to go lower or not before backing up the truck. Right now it seems a bit difficult for anyone to call so I guess we just wait and see how it plays out.
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Post by ericinaustin on Dec 11, 2014 14:54:49 GMT -8
I just don't get why WS discounts Apple for its concentration with iPhone. Funny, I never hear about Porsche's dependence on cars or Starbucks reliance on coffee. Are people going to stop talking to one another? Are smartphones going somewhere? They may evolve, perhaps to our wrists, but I think Apple has something up its sleeve (pun intended) on that score... Edit. Autocorrect sucks Yea the idea they rely on one product always ignores the fact that " one" product replaces about 7 key products we all used to buy . Smart phone is one product for apple like aircraft is one product for Boing.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Dec 11, 2014 15:01:11 GMT -8
I just don't get why WS discounts Apple for its concentration with iPhone. Funny, I never hear about Porsche's dependence on cars or Starbucks reliance on coffee. Are people going to stop talking to one another? Are smartphones going somewhere? They may evolve, perhaps to our wrists, but I think Apple has something up its sleeve (pun intended) on that score... Edit. Autocorrect sucks Yea the idea they rely on one product always ignores the fact that " one" product replaces about 7 key products we all used to buy . Smart phone is one product for apple like aircraft is one product for Boing. I used to love to fly on Boing airplanes, I just wish they didn't bounce like that during landings
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Post by nagrani on Dec 11, 2014 17:20:36 GMT -8
Spy needs to touch it's 50 day. When that happens - I'll revisit my apple long position
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 11, 2014 19:50:15 GMT -8
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