Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2014 3:49:54 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. AAPL is RED again in premarket, trading at 113.61 -0.30 (0.26%) at 6:30. Major indices are all RED as well. Most likely another sideways day with low volume. In the news -- nothing particularly new or noteworthy. Seems the FUDsters are on break with the traders... Engadgets reports iPhones and iPads made up over half of devices activated on Christmas. Chuck Jones at Forbes has a piece Apple's iPhone 6 Worldwide Lead-Times To Start The March Quarter. Pretty awesome that we're at the end of the quarter and still talking lead times. Bodes well. Have a great day. Let's make money. ALL old threads appear to remain locked. Oh well, it's almost a New Year and time to leave the past behind anyway...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2014 5:28:43 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 30, 2014 6:09:56 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 30, 2014 6:29:05 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Dec 30, 2014 6:43:33 GMT -8
Not making much sense of the price action today or into the close yesterday either :/
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2014 7:11:30 GMT -8
Well, I made an earnings bet on today's weakness.
20 contracts - January 30 bull put spread...112/115
Time will tell.....
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Post by nagrani on Dec 30, 2014 8:16:16 GMT -8
I'm out. Sitting in 100% cash
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2014 8:21:42 GMT -8
This device activation chart from Flurry is still quite stunning...is it too much to imply from this that Apple's U.S. dominance is ever increasing....and if U.S. consumers did spend more this holiday season...wow. Then we have Lunar New Year ahead, with strong demand in Asia still powerful, as indicated by backlog times in the Forbes piece.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
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Post by mark on Dec 30, 2014 8:48:39 GMT -8
I'm out. Sitting in 100% cash Wow, that may take more balls than anything else right before what are supposed to be spectacular earnings.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 30, 2014 9:12:52 GMT -8
I'm out. Sitting in 100% cash I'm in. Sitting in 100% Apple stock.
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coma
Member
Posts: 523
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Post by coma on Dec 30, 2014 9:19:01 GMT -8
I'm in. Sitting in 100% Apple stock. Great minds think alike . . .
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Post by rickag on Dec 30, 2014 9:20:14 GMT -8
I'm out. Sitting in 100% cash Why?
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Post by nagrani on Dec 30, 2014 9:52:21 GMT -8
It's been a nice ride. Market feels indecisive. With stock market sitting near or at all time highs - want to book some profits. Actually - after selling all options - I ended up jumping back and selling next week's 104 puts for 12 cents each. Just going to collect small monthly weekly pay checks from the market till market corrects and then will jump back I when everyone else is running for exits
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Post by mace on Dec 30, 2014 10:16:45 GMT -8
...I ended up jumping back and selling next week's 104 puts for 12 cents each... 12 cents? What would you do if AAPL declines sharply to $106 sometime this week?
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Post by macwire on Dec 30, 2014 10:49:35 GMT -8
The price rejection yesterday was at a pretty big .618 fib of move down.
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Post by nagrani on Dec 30, 2014 10:57:28 GMT -8
Mace - nothing really. I don't mind owning the shares at 104. If apple were to go all the way down to 104 - it will likely become oversold and due for a bounce. So here is how I look at this trade: Sold x contracts of next week's 104 puts for 12 cents A) apple stays above 104 and I collect the premium B) Apple closes below 104 and I get shares assigned at a price of 104. If B happens - will just hold common till earnings and sell OTM covered weekly calls against the position.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 30, 2014 11:12:55 GMT -8
Yucky day on nothing but good news for Apple. However, this is still fitting into my overall view for December. On December 1, I wrote this:
I've been pretty right on the 110-115 range so far... I sold before the drop in the 115-118 range and rebought in the 108-113 range. I'm hoping that I'm right on the rest of it and this really is just a period of consolidation before another strong move up.
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Post by nagrani on Dec 30, 2014 11:16:32 GMT -8
So a question for the group.... Looking out into near term future quarters - how do you think WS will reach to the YOY comparisons to apples current q1 and q2 which will be monster due to iphone 6...... It's going to be really hard to see YOY growth unless next years upgrade will have some special sauce and I watch is bigger than just an other category
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2014 12:05:17 GMT -8
I'm all AAPL common too. And gold. And enough cash to survive a brief zombie uprising. So I guess Doug Kass won't be invited on CNBC, as he has capitulated on Apple. I'm looking forward to a huge earnings release in Jan, and a run past our ATH. Doesn't mean we won't dip now before then. Frankly, I hope we do so I can snatch some dealios. I am worried about late January, as the Greeks are being their usual spoiled and entitled selves. Greece is a little piss-ant country, smaller than Orange County, CA; but, if when the Greeks default, the real scare is that the new normal will become defaulting on debt, like walking away from mortgages became an acceptable thing. Ponzi lending is Ponzi. In response to the TV question by Mark in the locked thread yesterday, yes, I believe Apple will announce a TV late 2015/early 2016. Apple has proven it can go into previously low margin sectors (computers, mobile music and phones) and yield high margins. Steve said Apple has cracked TV, and they already have done the R&D on beautiful 5K screens. They just need the licenses. I believe Apple cannot abandon the living room to the likes of Vizio and Sharp and Samsung. The living room is the beachhead into the rest of the house. BTW, some temporarily free apps some of you might be interested in. I've been wanting a scanner app.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2014 13:42:52 GMT -8
So a question for the group.... Looking out into near term future quarters - how do you think WS will reach to the YOY comparisons to apples current q1 and q2 which will be monster due to iphone 6...... It's going to be really hard to see YOY growth unless next years upgrade will have some special sauce and I watch is bigger than just an other category I'm just doing back of the envelope calculations at this point, and I ain't no Mav on number crunching, but there is an excellent storm building towards earnings. Every data point says Apple sold between 66 and 69 million iPhones.....with the mix between memory sizes and 6 v 6+ likely leading to some fine ASP and GM surprises. Has anyone heard even a rumor of production problems? I saw lines outside my Apple Store last Tuesday. Still. Not as long as four weeks ago, but still there. We are told by admittedly soft analytics that in the week up to Christmas Apple products comprised 51% of U.S activations. Retail sales overall were up 5.5% for the holidays. Personal tech was one of, if not the,biggest hot wish item for gifts and gifting. So.......tech is hot, people bought lots of tech, Apple products are the most desired tech and Apple products were activated big time! Throw in gift cards, peripherals, iTunes, mmmm. Macs? Gonna be a fine quarter. The 5k iMac will pull in some early adapters and the rest of the Mac family will do well. iPads? Yeah, could be soft...but what is soft anyway. If iPads get cannibalized by phablet iPhone 6+, so be it. iPads could surprise...but if a bit soft, it meets expectations. So revenues will be well up, YOY. ASP and GM will be positive. The still solid demand for iPhone 6 versions leads to solid guidance and the Lunar New Year. Nice. Then we have share count. Yeah, yeah, an inflated EPS because Apple retired 7% of the shares outstanding from a year ago. Huh? Apple BOUGHT those shares cheap with low cost/no cost money! So EPS gets goosed by 7% fewer shares to enjoy my historic revenues, big ASP and surprising GM numbers. Then we all turn our attention to.....the watch. Apple Pay, the IBM Partnership, which will make 2015 different and more than a repeat of 2013 or 2014 cycles. Let's go!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 30, 2014 14:17:14 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 30, 2014 15:06:36 GMT -8
More chinks in Google's armor from another angle. Apparently Google Now isn't that good yet... www.forbes.com/sites/ianmorris/2014/12/30/google-needs-to-fix-android-wear-in-2015-to-fend-off-the-apple-watch/"Because Android Wear relies so heavily on Google Now, it makes a lot of the information it presents absolutely useless. For example, my Android Wear devices will randomly tell me about two stocks, Twitter and Facebook. It tells me about them because I have them in my portfolio on Google Finance. But it doesn’t really seem to know anything about when I might want an update on this information. In my case, it’s pretty much never because I own no stock in either company. But if I did own stock, what I’d want is information about big changes to those companies, not just a random alert telling me the current – delayed – market value. And that’s just one example."
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2014 15:52:21 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Dec 30, 2014 16:35:45 GMT -8
So a question for the group.... Looking out into near term future quarters - how do you think WS will reach to the YOY comparisons to apples current q1 and q2 which will be monster due to iphone 6...... It's going to be really hard to see YOY growth unless next years upgrade will have some special sauce and I watch is bigger than just an other category I'm just doing back of the envelope calculations at this point, and I ain't no Mav on number crunching, but there is an excellent storm building towards earnings. Every data point says Apple sold between 66 and 69 million iPhones.....with the mix between memory sizes and 6 v 6+ likely leading to some fine ASP and GM surprises. Has anyone heard even a rumor of production problems? I saw lines outside my Apple Store last Tuesday. Still. Not as long as four weeks ago, but still there. We are told by admittedly soft analytics that in the week up to Christmas Apple products comprised 51% of U.S activations. Retail sales overall were up 5.5% for the holidays. Personal tech was one of, if not the,biggest hot wish item for gifts and gifting. So.......tech is hot, people bought lots of tech, Apple products are the most desired tech and Apple products were activated big time! Throw in gift cards, peripherals, iTunes, mmmm. Macs? Gonna be a fine quarter. The 5k iMac will pull in some early adapters and the rest of the Mac family will do well. iPads? Yeah, could be soft...but what is soft anyway. If iPads get cannibalized by phablet iPhone 6+, so be it. iPads could surprise...but if a bit soft, it meets expectations. So revenues will be well up, YOY. ASP and GM will be positive. The still solid demand for iPhone 6 versions leads to solid guidance and the Lunar New Year. Nice. Then we have share count. Yeah, yeah, an inflated EPS because Apple retired 7% of the shares outstanding from a year ago. Huh? Apple BOUGHT those shares cheap with low cost/no cost money! So EPS gets goosed by 7% fewer shares to enjoy my historic revenues, big ASP and surprising GM numbers. Then we all turn our attention to.....the watch. Apple Pay, the IBM Partnership, which will make 2015 different and more than a repeat of 2013 or 2014 cycles. Let's go! Flurry Apple and Apps Dominated Christmas 2014
Small nit pik
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2014 16:45:27 GMT -8
Kudos to Ina "Brain Is" Fried for pointing out the obvious, but there is no money in Android. In other news, hydrogen in blimps and feeding grizzly bears marshmallows are dangerous.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2014 17:55:34 GMT -8
Profit? Hah! Who needs it? Well Apple maybe, but they're just one giant niche company.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on Dec 30, 2014 19:21:05 GMT -8
More chinks in Google's armor from another angle. Apparently Google Now isn't that good yet... www.forbes.com/sites/ianmorris/2014/12/30/google-needs-to-fix-android-wear-in-2015-to-fend-off-the-apple-watch/"Because Android Wear relies so heavily on Google Now, it makes a lot of the information it presents absolutely useless. For example, my Android Wear devices will randomly tell me about two stocks, Twitter and Facebook. It tells me about them because I have them in my portfolio on Google Finance. But it doesn’t really seem to know anything about when I might want an update on this information. In my case, it’s pretty much never because I own no stock in either company. But if I did own stock, what I’d want is information about big changes to those companies, not just a random alert telling me the current – delayed – market value. And that’s just one example." I am struck by the growing similarities between Amazon and Google. Each has its bellwether technology smash (online retail; online search), but most everything else has been of the "throw some tech against the wall and see what sticks" variety. I will give Amazon credit for Kindle, which has built its own niche, but where is the traction for Google Glass or Fire Phone? Driverless cars are fascinating, but what's the profit strategy again? Drones seem to be in more use for filming the new Apple campus than for delivering packages. The concepts are sometimes interesting, but the ability to turn them into "insanely great" products is often missing. But, you know, it's Apple that just can't continue to innovate. These end-of-year doldrums have been mildly annoying, but I think most of us look at it as a beneficial rest, both for the stock and investors. I am looking forward to the next two earnings reports. What's the next likely date, around January 20?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2014 20:00:55 GMT -8
What's the next likely date, around January 20? Typically, early fourth week of Jan, but sometimes, early third week.
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