Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 4:05:40 GMT -8
Good Morning Everyone. Well, AAPL is nicely GREEN this morning, trading at 106.80 +0.54 (0.51%) at 6:57. Futures are all GREEN as well. Could this be it? A real move up? Not much in the news this morning. Forbes is at it again with Dell, HP Eclipse MacBook Air Design But Apple Readies Response. Unless by 'eclipse' they meant 'in the dark'... Enough. Have a great day. Let's make money.
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Jan 7, 2015 4:09:21 GMT -8
Kantar have just released the latest smartphone data for the three months ending November 2014:
"Apple market share grows across Europe, US and China Android share drops in the US for the first time since September 2013"
The latest smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, for the three months ending November 2014, shows that the impact of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launch continued in the run up to Christmas with iOS growing its market share in all surveyed countries except for Japan where performance in 2013 had been boosted by the addition of NTT DoCoMo as a carrier partner. "While remaining the dominant global OS, Android’s market share dropped in most European markets and in the US where the decline was the first since September 2013", said Carolina Milanesi, Chief of Research at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech. "A decline in Android market share does not necessarily translate into bad news for all the ecosystem’s players. The choice of brands and devices within the ecosystem empowers consumers to drive different fortunes for the players in it”, added Milanesi. In the three months ending November, Samsung particularly felt the pressure and saw its market share decline across Europe and in the US. By contrast Motorola’s share grew thanks to the refresh of the Moto X and Moto G offering good value for the money.
Across Europe*, Android remained the dominant OS with a market share of 69.9%, although this is 3.2 percentage points lower than the same period in 2013. “Great Britain saw the strongest share decline for Android at 6.7 percentage points”, said Dominic Sunnebo, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Europe. Apple’s market share gain, triggered by the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launch, continued into November when it reached 42.5% of British sales for a growth of 12.2 percentage points year-on-year mainly at the expense of Android. “The longer the new iPhone models are on the market the more their appeal will extend beyond Apple’s loyal customers. For now customer switching from Android to iOS remains stable at 18%”, added Sunnebo.
In the US, Apple reached 47.4% of sales, 4.3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2013. “The iPhone 6 was the best selling phone in the three months through November 2014, capturing 19% of smartphone sales”, said Milanesi. Verizon and AT&T made up 57% of iOS sales while Verizon and T-Mobile were the top two carriers for Android accounting for 33.7% of all Android smartphones sold.
In urban China, Android retained its leading position with a market share of 80.4%. “The wide variety of products offered by local manufacturers continues to push Android’s share”, said Tamsin Timpson, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Asia. “Xiaomi remains the biggest contributor to Android’s success as it averaged 30.2% of sales in the three months ending in November, an astonishing 18 percentage point rise over 2013”, added Timpson. Apple sales saw a small increase of 1.1 percentage points, which brought Apple’s share of the smartphone market in urban China to 18.1%. China Mobile remained Apple’s main channel with sales through the largest Chinese carrier accounting for 63% of Apple’s overall sales.
Smartphone penetration reached 58% in the US and 65% across Europe’s big five economies. “While die-hard featurephone owners state they are not planning to buy a smartphone in the next 12 months, they might not have a choice as vendors continue to transition their portfolio away from featurephones to smartphones”, concluded Milanesi. Forty-seven percent of featurephones owners looking to change their current device in the next 6 months in the US and 35% across Europe top 5 are not planning to upgrade to a smartphone.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2015 4:26:14 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Jan 7, 2015 4:26:37 GMT -8
An interesting piece: "THE REAL STORY BEHIND JEFF BEZOS'S FIRE PHONE DEBACLE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMAZON'S FUTURE" Interviews with dozens of current and former employees reveal what went wrong and what it tells us about where Amazon is headed. www.fastcompany.com/3039887/under-fire
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 5:02:51 GMT -8
Some thoughts on diversification... Warren Buffett: 'Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing' and 'Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they're doing' Mark Cuban: '... [diversification] “is for idiots". You can’t diversify enough "to know what you’re doing", he adds. You’ve got to do your homework and play your best bets. I know people who have portfolios with many, many companies. These people have a tendency to be indecisive and overly focused on avoiding losses. Amongst the hallmarks of their portfolio is a tendency to 'dump the losers' -- think Apple a year or two ago and double down, albeit from from 4% to 6% of their portfolio, on the 'winners' think Amazon. My observation is they rarely hold a winner and when they are it is an insignificant enough portion of their entire portfolio to make a difference. I do ask if they've ever considered an index fund... I follow the Peter Lynch school. Still recommend One Up On Wall Street as the best stock market primer out there. Lynch's thesis: Focus on companies you know and like. Lynch says more than about 5 companies is too many. You can't follow them. Every person I know who has had major success in their portfolio has done it through a few stocks that they were heavily, if not solely, concentrated in. I've been investing for a long time. Many investments have come and gone. The typical state of my portfolio is very top heavy in one or two issues. Currently I am back to 100% Apple. It's put my children through college and allowed me to retire early -- I'm 56. My last significant diversification was Google. Got out because I don't like how the company is run -- made a ton, but could have made much more. I tend to do 'insignificant' side investments, last one was GT Advanced, in the hopes they grow into something. I'm tempted by Tesla because of Elon Musk -- he's the closest thing I see to Steve Jobs -- but it's way too expensive for my taste. It's worked well for me.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 7, 2015 6:48:25 GMT -8
Jay Yarow (a pro Apple BI writer) just tweeted "The UBS Evidence Lab iPhone Monitor now pegs Dec quarter iPhones at 69.3mn units". That's higher than most estimates I've seen.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 6:53:58 GMT -8
Kantar have just released the latest smartphone data for the three months ending November 2014: "Apple market share grows across Europe, US and China Android share drops in the US for the first time since September 2013" The latest smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, for the three months ending November 2014, shows that the impact of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launch continued in the run up to Christmas with iOS growing its market share in all surveyed countries except for Japan where performance in 2013 had been boosted by the addition of NTT DoCoMo as a carrier partner. "While remaining the dominant global OS, Android’s market share dropped in most European markets and in the US where the decline was the first since September 2013", said Carolina Milanesi, Chief of Research at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech. "A decline in Android market share does not necessarily translate into bad news for all the ecosystem’s players. The choice of brands and devices within the ecosystem empowers consumers to drive different fortunes for the players in it”, added Milanesi. In the three months ending November, Samsung particularly felt the pressure and saw its market share decline across Europe and in the US. By contrast Motorola’s share grew thanks to the refresh of the Moto X and Moto G offering good value for the money. Across Europe*, Android remained the dominant OS with a market share of 69.9%, although this is 3.2 percentage points lower than the same period in 2013. “Great Britain saw the strongest share decline for Android at 6.7 percentage points”, said Dominic Sunnebo, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Europe. Apple’s market share gain, triggered by the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launch, continued into November when it reached 42.5% of British sales for a growth of 12.2 percentage points year-on-year mainly at the expense of Android. “The longer the new iPhone models are on the market the more their appeal will extend beyond Apple’s loyal customers. For now customer switching from Android to iOS remains stable at 18%”, added Sunnebo. In the US, Apple reached 47.4% of sales, 4.3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2013. “The iPhone 6 was the best selling phone in the three months through November 2014, capturing 19% of smartphone sales”, said Milanesi. Verizon and AT&T made up 57% of iOS sales while Verizon and T-Mobile were the top two carriers for Android accounting for 33.7% of all Android smartphones sold. In urban China, Android retained its leading position with a market share of 80.4%. “The wide variety of products offered by local manufacturers continues to push Android’s share”, said Tamsin Timpson, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Asia. “Xiaomi remains the biggest contributor to Android’s success as it averaged 30.2% of sales in the three months ending in November, an astonishing 18 percentage point rise over 2013”, added Timpson. Apple sales saw a small increase of 1.1 percentage points, which brought Apple’s share of the smartphone market in urban China to 18.1%. China Mobile remained Apple’s main channel with sales through the largest Chinese carrier accounting for 63% of Apple’s overall sales. Smartphone penetration reached 58% in the US and 65% across Europe’s big five economies. “While die-hard featurephone owners state they are not planning to buy a smartphone in the next 12 months, they might not have a choice as vendors continue to transition their portfolio away from featurephones to smartphones”, concluded Milanesi. Forty-seven percent of featurephones owners looking to change their current device in the next 6 months in the US and 35% across Europe top 5 are not planning to upgrade to a smartphone. Thanks, Rob And, of course, the lower China number is explained by the fact the iPhone's did not go on sale immediately and there were a lot of folks waiting for the larger form factor...the still huge backlog in Hong Kong tells that story
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 7:02:38 GMT -8
I'm much happier with today's price action.
|
|
|
Post by BillH on Jan 7, 2015 7:24:46 GMT -8
I'm much happier with today's price action. "Slowly he turns. Inch by inch. Step by step." Abbot and Costello meet Frankenstein iirc.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2015 7:29:25 GMT -8
WS analysts on AAPL: "Who's on first? I don't know. he's on second...." Also Abbot and Costello!
|
|
|
Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Jan 7, 2015 7:39:07 GMT -8
Great stories! Every person I know who has had a life-altering market loss has done it through heavy concentration in one or two names. Lucent was the big one—it got many doctor acquaintances of my parents and we knew a few Lucent employees who did not see it coming. I lost somewhat more than $7,000 to them. Not a lot, comparatively, because I was diversified at the time, but Apple had hit a snag a couple of years before, Enron was going on (never in that, thank God), and the dot com bust was so dispiriting that I didn't add to my portfolio for years. It was in 2010 that I woke up and said to myself, wow, aapl has grown. Should I diversify? It was lurking in the old AFB that convinced me that for all my gains in it, Apple was still undervalued, and I began re-allocating cash into more. Ouch. My small side bet outside my core holdings is currently NXP Semiconductors. It had run up quite a bit when I picked it up, but some semi manufacturer reported poorly and dragged the whole sector down, and I BtFD.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 8:52:37 GMT -8
... we knew a few Lucent employees who did not see it coming ... That is the antithesis of the Peter Lynch model. My worst losses all resulted from knowing someone who knew something instead of sticking with companies/situations I knew and trusted. I've learned from that experience. Note that Lynch does not advocate putting all of ones eggs in a single basket, but rather, that one should not have a lot of baskets.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Jan 7, 2015 9:07:28 GMT -8
An interesting piece: "THE REAL STORY BEHIND JEFF BEZOS'S FIRE PHONE DEBACLE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMAZON'S FUTURE" Interviews with dozens of current and former employees reveal what went wrong and what it tells us about where Amazon is headed. www.fastcompany.com/3039887/under-fireExcellent article! News earlier this week in Seattle was that many employees and managers in the Fire development unit were being dismissed because of the failure of the Fire phone. Yet they were just carrying out Bezos' vision. It reminds me of working for a jerk sometime in my distant past: "I warned you about that possible outcome." "Well, you didn't make your case forcefully enough."
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 7, 2015 9:10:24 GMT -8
I'm much happier with today's price action. "Slowly he turns. Inch by inch. Step by step." Abbot and Costello meet Frankenstein iirc. "Slowly he turns. Inch by inch. Step by step." : Moe Howard
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 9:23:59 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Jan 7, 2015 9:42:40 GMT -8
Strange that the positivity comes just one day after hitting the 61.8% retrace. Didn't expect that. /s
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 7, 2015 11:30:45 GMT -8
I'd just point out what should be obvious; that diversification of stocks vs diversification of asset classes are two separate discussions altogether. But I've always thought of the notion of "beating the Dow" a silly false dichotomy. Holding all 30 Dow stocks would be like betting on every horse in a race. Some of them have to lose. Of course you can beat the Dow if you hold a couple of top Dow performers. But if you play active fund manager of 30 stocks, notsmuch. BTW, typical obfuscation from Warren Buffett, who routinely does the opposite of what he says. BRK holds 47 publicly-traded stocks.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 12:16:22 GMT -8
It is worth noting that Lynch's Magellan Fund invested in a lot of companies as well. Indeed, at its peak when Lynch retired Magellan was, by itself, a significant portion of the market. When Lynch retired he voiced his frustration at having 'too much' money to manage effectively so that he was forced to buy companies he would not have bought otherwise because he had to invest it somewhere.
About this time I divested Magellan. Kind of hard to beat the market when you are the market.
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Jan 7, 2015 12:46:45 GMT -8
It is worth noting that Lynch's Magellan Fund invested in a lot of companies as well. Indeed, at its peak when Lynch retired Magellan was, by itself, a significant portion of the market. When Lynch retired he voiced his frustration at having 'too much' money to manage effectively so that he was forced to buy companies he would not have bought otherwise because he had to invest it somewhere. About this time I divested Magellan. Kind of hard to beat the market when you are the market. In the preface to his second book, "Beating the Street", Lynch wrote that at some stage in his 13 year tenure at Magellan he had purchased more than 15,000 different stocks for investors!
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 7, 2015 12:52:54 GMT -8
Kind of a weak bounce back so far... AAPL basically just tracking the market... hopefully we'll see a bit more power and get above those moving averages 109-110.50 this week...
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 13:06:50 GMT -8
I'm just glad we did not tank into the close...volume lighter, which is fine....steady as she goes.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 13:10:10 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 13:17:40 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 13:53:58 GMT -8
Very simplistic, but what other product by what other company gets this kind of treatment before it ever sees the light of day in a store? I have to think Tim and Company have a few surprises up their sleeves for when this baby finally goes final. Rumor is Mercel has a pre-order in for four...one for each appendage. Mav ordered five......
|
|
|
Post by mace on Jan 7, 2015 14:00:45 GMT -8
...Every person I know who has had a life-altering market loss has done it through heavy concentration in one or two names... In general and as a principle, you're right that one should not concentrate on just 1-2 names. But AAPL is an aberration, an outliner. The principle doesn't apply to Apple till at least post-Tim Cook or after Apple achieved a trillion dollar market cap. In fact, pity those AAPL investors who learn the wrong lesson, whatever learn from investing and trading AAPL actually doesn't apply to most stocks.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2015 14:08:44 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 7, 2015 14:30:28 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2015 15:10:53 GMT -8
I think the "base case" for iPhone (just a total WAG of course) is more low/mid 60M units (based on high-end revenue guidance of $66.5B).
Of course, if you think Apple will beat on revenues, then...
|
|
|
Post by incorrigible on Jan 7, 2015 15:42:24 GMT -8
This just in ... :
BREAKING - Samsung Electronics tips 37% drop in Q4 operating profit
Boo-F'n-Hoo!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2015 15:44:55 GMT -8
Better than expected?
|
|