Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2015 3:49:25 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 20, 2015 4:19:26 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 20, 2015 7:24:54 GMT -8
I'd prefer more decisively upward movement...
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Post by firestorm on Jan 20, 2015 7:35:31 GMT -8
It seems to me that AAPL has stopped the long term pattern of making a big runup prior to earnings, then tanking on the news. It is possible we got our big run last year based upon the stellar iPhone 6/+ sales, and that this earnings report will see a selloff on the forecast.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2015 7:41:48 GMT -8
It seems to me that AAPL has stopped the long term pattern of making a big runup prior to earnings, then tanking on the news. It is possible we got our big run last year based upon the stellar iPhone 6/+ sales, and that this earnings report will see a selloff on the forecast. Very possible..but even a reasonable forecast of 53 billion in revs for Q2 would be a big YOY increase, with EPS. Ratios even better. Hopefully common sense prevails....the watch is such an unknown. If the watch is released on y WAG date of March 20, it could add 1.5 billion to revs...
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2015 7:55:52 GMT -8
Starting to think currency headwinds are going to be significant. From J&J earnings:
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Post by electrobuzz on Jan 20, 2015 8:40:09 GMT -8
Starting to think currency headwinds are going to be significant. From J&J earnings: Here is what the currency situation looked like for Apple in its major markets for the Oct-Dec quarter (approximate numbers): Euro range - .79232 to .82245 (euro weakened by -3.8%) Yen range - 105.96 to 119.69 (yen weakened by -12,96%) Yuan - 6.1111 to 6.199 (Yuan weakened by -1.44%) Given that the sales of iPhone 6 started late in China and the relatively low impact of the euro weakening (I hope Apple hedged this to some extent), Japanese sales hold the key when it comes to currency headwinds in my opinion.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 20, 2015 8:48:19 GMT -8
Japan sales showed a pretty large decline due to the launch on Docomo last year. Good timing...
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jan 20, 2015 9:12:32 GMT -8
It seems to me that AAPL has stopped the long term pattern of making a big runup prior to earnings, then tanking on the news. It is possible we got our big run last year based upon the stellar iPhone 6/+ sales, and that this earnings report will see a selloff on the forecast. If we were sitting at 119 I might agree, but given the way that Apple sold all they could make for almost the entire quarter, I don't see the current price as a reasonable adjustment from where we were 3 months ago. I don't think we will see the big drop right after earnings anymore because Cook and company will be right there, cash in hand, to scoop up the bargains. We have all been here long enough to not expect rational behavior from the market. Whether we go up down or sideways, I expect 2015 to be even better than 2014.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2015 10:30:31 GMT -8
Thanks for the excellent earnings preciew, Mav.
I wonder does anyone have any thoughts about the sky-high expectations of the analysts, ie setting us up for a possible "apple misses expectations" even though Apple beats their own guidance?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 20, 2015 11:00:22 GMT -8
Huberty speaks! appleinsider.com/articles/15/01/20/morgan-stanley-sees-apples-strong-holiday-sales-continuing-into-2015"In a Tuesday morning note to investors, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, Morgan Stanley technology analyst Katy Huberty said that the bank foresees iPhone shipments for the holiday quarter falling between 67 million and 69 million units. The iPhone's average selling price is expected to climb to $667 — a 5 percent year-over-year uptick — thanks to stronger demand for the higher-priced iPhone 6 Plus and an increase in consumers opting for devices with larger storage capacities.Some 5.8 million Macs are thought to have been sold in the just-completed quarter, which would mark a new record high for the recently-resurgent computer lineup. Folding in a predicted 22 million iPad sales on top of older product lines, such as the iPod, would bring revenue to nearly $69 billion on 38.7 percent gross margin for the frame.Going forward, the bank believes Apple is prepared to ship more than 50 million iPhone units through March as they increase inventory range to between 5 and 7 weeks. The Mac will likely maintain its over-5-million-per-quarter pace, while the iPad comes with a more grim forecast, as supply chain indications point to target production of just 11 million devices.Huberty argues that Wall Street remains "too pessimistic" about the Apple Watch's potential, and forecasts shipments of 3 million units adding $1.4 billion in revenue for the March quarter. The uncertainty around sales of the wristworn device and recent exchange rate fluctuations — notably in Russia — could affect Apple's spring revenue, she wrote.Overall, Huberty remains optimistic about Apple's future. She maintained the bank's overweight rating and $126 price target for AAPL shares."126, my ass!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 20, 2015 11:16:35 GMT -8
Huberty speaks! Overall, Huberty remains optimistic about Apple's future. She maintained the bank's overweight rating and $126 price target for AAPL shares."126, my ass! Mine, too! Now if she had 146 as a one-year target, I might agree with her.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2015 11:28:32 GMT -8
Thanks for the excellent earnings preciew, Mav. I wonder does anyone have any thoughts about the sky-high expectations of the analysts, ie setting us up for a possible "apple misses expectations" even though Apple beats their own guidance? Well, there is, say, Jan-Apr 2014 to consider. Analyst expectations ARE ridiculous for a tech company at this revenue level (maybe not a record high, but the current #1, and certainly a definitive #1 for consumer tech-oriented companies). OTOH, Apple "didn't help any" with Maestri's $66.5B top-end guide. Look where we are now - $67.28B per Yahoo! Finance consensus! There's also that 5-7 week channel inventory thing (iPhone AND iPad) to consider. Tough bar, no question. Luckily THIS time, EVERYONE knows there's valuation backstops in place, and bulls (like Uncle Carl) more than willing to eat bears' lunch on dips. Helps a little, right?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2015 11:29:12 GMT -8
Thanks for the excellent earnings preciew, Mav. I wonder does anyone have any thoughts about the sky-high expectations of the analysts, ie setting us up for a possible "apple misses expectations" even though Apple beats their own guidance? Yes, I mentioned in one of the weekend threads that my only fear for January earnings is that the extra time due to the late date could cause the "whisper number" to get completely crazy as we get closer to the announcement and the magnitude of F1Q2015 starts to really sink in.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2015 11:31:44 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2015 11:36:05 GMT -8
This stuff doesn't happen in a vacuum though. You won't get analysts going crazy high and telling everyone about it, and AAPL, say, does nothing. EDIT: Like, today? Of course, next Tuesday is NOT a good day to calmly bet the farm. Nervousness will be the order of the day, even for those without weeklies.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 20, 2015 12:52:10 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2015 13:01:56 GMT -8
Nice close.....powered right into the HOD
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2015 14:40:22 GMT -8
Huberty speaks! Overall, Huberty remains optimistic about Apple's future. She maintained the bank's overweight rating and $126 price target for AAPL shares."126, my ass! Mine, too! Now if she had 146 as a one-year target, I might agree with her. I hope you're right & arguably AAPL deserves it. The current TTE = 6.45. This quarter could add $0.66 ( kind of high but doable). FQ 2 15 could add $0.40 (kind of high but doable. For grins add $0.35 for FQ 3 15 (I would ecstatic) 6.45 + 0.66 + 0.40 + 0.35 = 7.86 TTE 146 / 7.86 = 18.57 P/E. Seems reasonable to me, will Wall Street agree? At 119 AAPL's P/E was 18.45. The current P/E is 16.86 so 16.86 X 7.86 = 132.52 Now if Wall Street ever wakes up and gives a P/E above 20 which it deserves then I will be HAPPY VERY HAPPY.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2015 14:44:59 GMT -8
We may all not be on this Earth.
One digit at a time.
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2015 14:50:11 GMT -8
We may all not be on this Earth. One digit at a time. Forgot to thank you for the great work on The APPL Tree.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2015 15:10:40 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 20, 2015 15:11:37 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2015 16:31:34 GMT -8
Could you help me out here? I don't have the time to listen to the NFLX video you linked to and just wondering what the connection is to this NFLX report and AAPL.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 20, 2015 17:01:56 GMT -8
The odds are against the Seahawks pulling out another miracle. Naturally anything is possible but clearly not probable, Red. Let the Gods on Mt. Olympus decide their fate!
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 20, 2015 17:08:09 GMT -8
Could you help me out here? I don't have the time to listen to the NFLX video you linked to and just wondering what the connection is to this NFLX report and AAPL. NFLX is a negative growth DVD business and a growing MOBILE business. aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/74105/quote/998?page=2MY comparison: NFLX is up 18% in one day. IMHO: AAPL SHOULD be +$120 we shall see.
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2015 17:48:32 GMT -8
artman1033
Thank you for the reply.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 20, 2015 18:26:31 GMT -8
The odds are against the Seahawks pulling out another miracle. Naturally anything is possible but clearly not probable, Red. Let the Gods on Mt. Olympus decide their fate! Mount Olympus is the tallest mountain on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, in the mountains visible across Puget Sound from Seattle. Those Gods are clearly pulling for the Seahawks!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 20, 2015 19:37:43 GMT -8
The odds are against the Seahawks pulling out another miracle. Naturally anything is possible but clearly not probable, Red. Let the Gods on Mt. Olympus decide their fate! Mount Olympus is the tallest mountain on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, in the mountains visible across Puget Sound from Seattle. Those Gods are clearly pulling for the Seahawks! Doubtful - you know how they love to screw up their heroes !
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2015 20:52:15 GMT -8
Mount Olympus is the tallest mountain on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, in the mountains visible across Puget Sound from Seattle. Those Gods are clearly pulling for the Seahawks! Doubtful - you know how they love to screw up their heroes ! Yes, so true. Just ask Aaron Rodgers.
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