JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2012 22:45:16 GMT -8
One more day of tech facing the reality of mobile, i.e., Apple.
Next week, the week of AAPL.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 22:55:42 GMT -8
I know, I've said try not to look too much into individual US carrier iPhone activations when estimating iPhone for each quarter.
But - iPhone was strong on Verizon, considering the iPhone 5 sales pause. With very limited data, YOY improvement actually better than the Q2 2011 >> Q2 2012 interval (2.3M >> 3.2M activations), and since non-iPhone 5 activations were around 2.4M or so for this quarter (for a carrier pushing LTE aggressively, as part of a more saturated smartphone market in the US), that's a very good sign that iPhone demand did NOT really fall off a cliff before iPhone 5 came along.
30ish% YOY earnings growth in an accelerated iPhone transition cycle, if Apple puts in a mid-$9 EPS number? For a <15 multiple stock? With ttm EPS growing at what I expect to be 5% or better (translation: the multiple would fall to just a shred over 14 at today's prices)? You're damn right this stock is a buy!
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 0:09:32 GMT -8
Wanna see how the LA Times photographers were able to cover the shuttle move from all directions? Check them out on all sorts of motorcycles here: www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10151222580363188.479847.174035158187&type=1They weren't shooting with iPhones....although, everyone else along the way WAS!!!! The Photogs transmitted all along the shuttle path on "deadline" via Apple MacBook Pros in their backpacks w/verzion wireless cards.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 0:46:42 GMT -8
I know, I've said try not to look too much into individual US carrier iPhone activations when estimating iPhone for each quarter. But - iPhone was strong on Verizon, considering the iPhone 5 sales pause. With very limited data, YOY improvement actually better than the Q2 2011 >> Q2 2012 interval (2.3M >> 3.2M activations), and since non-iPhone 5 activations were around 2.4M or so for this quarter (for a carrier pushing LTE aggressively, as part of a more saturated smartphone market in the US), that's a very good sign that iPhone demand did NOT really fall off a cliff before iPhone 5 came along. 30ish% YOY earnings growth in an accelerated iPhone transition cycle, if Apple puts in a mid-$9 EPS number? For a <15 multiple stock? With ttm EPS growing at what I expect to be 5% or better (translation: the multiple would fall to just a shred over 14 at today's prices)? You're damn right this stock is a buy! Last years launch quarter saw at&t report 1.77x verizons number. Using that number we would get a 5.49 million shipped for AT&T. Guess well see next week. BUT.....we can't count out a couple of hundred thousand in extra sales on Verizon from the first ever free iPhone being available on the network (the $0 iPhone 4). So the ratio might be slightly more tilted in favour of Verizon from here on out.
|
|
|
Post by mjuarez on Oct 19, 2012 1:46:55 GMT -8
I know, I've said try not to look too much into individual US carrier iPhone activations when estimating iPhone for each quarter. But - iPhone was strong on Verizon, considering the iPhone 5 sales pause. With very limited data, YOY improvement actually better than the Q2 2011 >> Q2 2012 interval (2.3M >> 3.2M activations), and since non-iPhone 5 activations were around 2.4M or so for this quarter (for a carrier pushing LTE aggressively, as part of a more saturated smartphone market in the US), that's a very good sign that iPhone demand did NOT really fall off a cliff before iPhone 5 came along. 30ish% YOY earnings growth in an accelerated iPhone transition cycle, if Apple puts in a mid-$9 EPS number? For a <15 multiple stock? With ttm EPS growing at what I expect to be 5% or better (translation: the multiple would fall to just a shred over 14 at today's prices)? You're damn right this stock is a buy! Last years launch quarter saw at&t report 1.77x verizons number. Using that number we would get a 5.49 million shipped for AT&T. Guess well see next week. BUT.....we can't count out a couple of hundred thousand in extra sales on Verizon from the first ever free iPhone being available on the network (the $0 iPhone 4). So the ratio might be slightly more tilted in favour of Verizon from here on out. I'd say the opppsite is true. The amount of people out there with AT&T 3GS iPhones is staggering (that model was never made available to Verizon). Those will upgrade by the millions, which is why I expect AT&T's iPhone numbers to come in higher than expected.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 3:18:31 GMT -8
I know, I've said try not to look too much into individual US carrier iPhone activations when estimating iPhone for each quarter. But - iPhone was strong on Verizon, considering the iPhone 5 sales pause. With very limited data, YOY improvement actually better than the Q2 2011 >> Q2 2012 interval (2.3M >> 3.2M activations), and since non-iPhone 5 activations were around 2.4M or so for this quarter (for a carrier pushing LTE aggressively, as part of a more saturated smartphone market in the US), that's a very good sign that iPhone demand did NOT really fall off a cliff before iPhone 5 came along. Now I remember that Sprint started cutting the cost of the 4S the first week of August. Initially to $149, then to $149 with a $100 Amex gift card. Did other carriers do the same? The price deduction only captures 7 weeks or so of the quarter, but that's still early enough to have an effect (if other carriers followed, I simply can't remember).
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 4:14:18 GMT -8
Going to be a tough day (especially for those with expiring weeklies). IMHO the broader markets given heir current levels are looking for reason for a sell off and now they have it with the recent batch of earnings (GOOG,MSFT and now Gen Elec). Unfortunately Apple is probably going to follow the broader market to some extent. A limited extent because RSI, MACD etc... are already quite low but then again who knows. Could even be a WTF sale day. At the close I wouldn't be surprised if we were down 12-15: equally I wouldn't be surprised if we were up 5. Best of luck to our traders.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 19, 2012 4:29:41 GMT -8
I'm sure you all caught the interview with the Verizon chairman but he did say that the majority of those iPhone sales were new users to Verizon - that can only be an overall positive. I feel like the witch by the iPhone cauldron luring the kiddies for Halloween..."Come to me my pretty....bwahhahaha!"
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 19, 2012 4:37:22 GMT -8
Going to be a tough day (especially for those with expiring weeklies). IMHO the broader markets given heir current levels are looking for reason for a sell off and now they have it with the recent batch of earnings (GOOG,MSFT and now Gen Elec). Unfortunately Apple is probably going to follow the broader market to some extent. A limited extent because RSI, MACD etc... are already quite low but then again who knows. Could even be a WTF sale day. At the close I wouldn't be surprised if we were down 12-15: equally I wouldn't be surprised if we were up 5. Best of luck to our traders. There is a BIG put wall at 625 that should resist any downside move.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 19, 2012 4:44:19 GMT -8
interesting tweet about T:
Bloomberg News @bloombergnews BREAKING: AT&T seeks to use $9.5 billion wireless stake to pay pension benefits
IT would suggest to me: AT&T wants to use pension funds to BUY iPhones to sell to customers.
On October 18, 2012, AT&T (NYSE: T) filed an application with the U.S. Department of Labor (the “Application”) for approval to contribute in-kind assets to the trust used to pay pension benefits under plans sponsored by AT&T and its affiliates (the Trust). Specifically, AT&T’s Application will seek authorization to contribute a preferred equity interest in its wireless business. AT&T will work with the Department of Labor to obtain approval before the end of 2013.
This preferred equity interest, with a fair market value of approximately $9.5 billion, consists of a newly-created class of preferred equity (Preferred Interest) in AT&T Mobility II LLC (Mobility), the holding company for AT&T’s wireless business; currently, all equity of Mobility is held by AT&T’s wholly-owned subsidiaries.
As reported in the AT&T Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011, the present value of AT&T’s pension liabilities exceeded the fair value of trust assets by approximately $10.2 billion at December 31, 2011. This contribution will significantly improve the funded status of the Plan, enhancing the strength of the trust for AT&T’s employees and retirees. Prior to the contribution of the Preferred Interest, the estimated required contribution for 2013 is approximately $300 million.
The Preferred Interest does not have voting rights or any other management rights in the operation of Mobility. The Preferred Interest has a specified liquidation value and liquidation priority over other equity interests of Mobility. The Preferred Interest will entitle the Trust to cumulative cash distributions of approximately $560 million per annum. In the event AT&T is in arrears in distribution on the Preferred Interest, it agrees it will not declare a dividend on AT&T common stock or purchase shares authorized under repurchase programs. The Preferred Interest is not transferable except as described below.
After a period of five years from the contribution or if earlier, the date upon which the Trust is fully funded as calculated under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, AT&T has the right to purchase the Preferred Interest. In addition, AT&T will have the right to purchase the Preferred Interest in the event AT&T’s ownership of Mobility is less than fifty percent (50%) or there is a transaction that results in a spin-off of more than fifty percent (50%) of the Trust’s assets (collectively, a change of control). The Trust has the right to require AT&T to purchase the Preferred Interest in installments as specified in the Application upon the occurrence of any of the following: 1) at any time after a seven-year period from the contribution, (2) upon a change of control if AT&T or its affiliates do not exercise the purchase option, or (3) at any time if the ratio of debt to total capitalization of Mobility exceeds that of AT&T. In the event AT&T purchases the Preferred Interest, AT&T may elect to settle in shares of AT&T common stock.
AT&T expects that diluted earnings per share will not be materially different than if this contribution of Preferred Interest had not occurred. Cash flows from operations will not be impacted by the actual contribution of the Preferred Interest, other than by the tax deduction resulting from the contribution. Quarterly cash distributions on the Preferred Interest will be treated as noncontrolling interest distributions, which may be tax deductible.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 4:47:00 GMT -8
Good article on disruptive companies. Provides some insight on what a genuine challenge to Apple would look like. www.cnbc.com/id/49307328
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 4:57:20 GMT -8
Going to be a tough day (especially for those with expiring weeklies). IMHO the broader markets given heir current levels are looking for reason for a sell off and now they have it with the recent batch of earnings (GOOG,MSFT and now Gen Elec). Unfortunately Apple is probably going to follow the broader market to some extent. A limited extent because RSI, MACD etc... are already quite low but then again who knows. Could even be a WTF sale day. At the close I wouldn't be surprised if we were down 12-15: equally I wouldn't be surprised if we were up 5. Best of luck to our traders. There is a BIG put wall at 625 that should resist any downside move. I certainly hope so. While drops don't bother me, what is a pain is when we go back up and the slew of people that bought near bottom getting back out at a 10-15% gain. If we go to sub 625, once we get back to 700 or ATH will trigger a large amount of selling IMHO. 850 by earnings in Jan is reasonable by fundamentals but we all know the TA will take over if we go say low 600s to 850 in the time between now and then.
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Oct 19, 2012 5:26:22 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 10/19/2012
|
|
|
Post by jmolloy on Oct 19, 2012 5:47:59 GMT -8
Quick question: Google are "in the green" this morning. Was yesterday's early release deliberate?
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 19, 2012 6:00:41 GMT -8
Quick question: Google are "in the green" this morning. Was yesterday's early release deliberate? The tinfoil in me says possible, but the last vestiges of the SEC in me say no. They would have to above average evil to be deliberate.
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Oct 19, 2012 6:03:22 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 19, 2012 6:08:41 GMT -8
LINK: nanseninvestments.com/I wanted to take a preliminary look at Q1 2013. I penciled in 56 MM iphones, 27 MM ipads, 10 MM ipad minis, 11 MM ipods, and 6 MM imacs. What the....
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Oct 19, 2012 6:12:43 GMT -8
LINK: nanseninvestments.com/I wanted to take a preliminary look at Q1 2013. I penciled in 56 MM iphones, 27 MM ipads, 10 MM ipad minis, 11 MM ipods, and 6 MM imacs. What the.... He also said "This number is just speculative and will get changed after the Earnings report on Thursday."
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 19, 2012 6:15:42 GMT -8
Rupert, I have a pretty solid $19 for the December quarter......and I'm a buck behind on the just completed quarter.
Either way, the upside should be obvious......I'm buying with whatever I can scrape together...
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 6:30:22 GMT -8
Rupert, I have a pretty solid $19 for the December quarter......and I'm a buck behind on the just completed quarter. Either way, the upside should be obvious......I'm buying with whatever I can scrape together... We're going to post the largest inflation-adjusted quarterly earnings ever in Q1. Just need a 24.3% YoY growth.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 19, 2012 6:39:25 GMT -8
The guidance for the quarter we are currently in MUST be at least 13. Thirteen is such a BEAUTIFUL number. It means Apple is making $1 Billion per week in profit. AAPL has a trailing EPS of 42.53. Apple is in the holiday quarter. Last year Apple reported $13.87 for this quarter. 16.64 would be a great number, a 20% increase.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 19, 2012 6:55:21 GMT -8
I checked my sandbag ratio spreadsheet. I now revise my EPS guidance number to $ 13 minimum. $ 13.50 for best guess.
Revenue at 65 B with guidance at at 54 B. Note: still very early spreadsheet. Do your own numbers carefully. I will cross post later today.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 7:07:34 GMT -8
Heads up! We just lost an important trendline.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Oct 19, 2012 7:08:14 GMT -8
This is getting quite similar to the WTF fall from 644 in April. It'll be sad to go back near the 600 level.
|
|
|
Post by lollo on Oct 19, 2012 7:19:22 GMT -8
What's going on? I have my bank's stop loss at 617.15 which I can't even change... Should I just sell now and limit losses?
|
|
|
Post by madmaxroi on Oct 19, 2012 7:19:22 GMT -8
Heads up! We just lost an important trendline. If we close above the 100 DMA, doesn't that cancel the intraday noise out or is that wishful thinking on my part?
|
|
|
Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 7:20:08 GMT -8
Quick question: Google are "in the green" this morning. Was yesterday's early release deliberate? Yeah, it was intentional. They knew how the stock would trade minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day, after the release and their goal was to be up $1 today after being down massively yesterday.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 7:20:49 GMT -8
Sigh.
WTF sale continues.
But it's more important where AAPL finishes. 620 not broken yet.
|
|
|
Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 7:20:53 GMT -8
The guidance for the quarter we are currently in MUST be at least 13. Thirteen is such a BEAUTIFUL number. It means Apple is making $1 Billion per week in profit. AAPL has a trailing EPS of 42.53. Apple is in the holiday quarter. Last year Apple reported $13.87 for this quarter. 16.64 would be a great number, a 20% increase. $16.64 would be an absolute disaster.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Oct 19, 2012 7:22:30 GMT -8
I bought the dip. Again (again).
|
|