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Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 8:37:00 GMT -8
Don't kid yourself either. If you're buying Apr 13s, you're trading. Same with '14, '15 LEAPs if they're a big part of your portfolio. Obviously it's a continuum and everyone's portfolios are different. I invest and I trade (mostly trade). But self-identification at least of individual buys helps focus the mind. I have to respectfully disagree with you there Mav. I do know this sometimes comes down to unwritten rules but I view investing as analyzing the fundamentals, basing a buy on on the fundamentals and selling when the fundamentals don't meet the individual investors criteria. Whereas trading I view as relying on TA and attempting to make a gain based on the various TA criteria once again defined by the individual trader. Now an investor may of course use TA at the time of selling when the fundamental criteria limit is reached or nearing just to squeeze out a slightly more favorable selling price of the day. Essentially using two small examples; with my 2014 or even Apr 13 options I am not concerned with the RSI for the day and I don't believe a trader is watching the PE, PEG etc... as they make decisions. Regarding holding options vs commons; options have evolved to the point they might as well be commons on the longer term options as there are more similarities than differences. Lot of opinion here and I guess much is based on perspective but this is mine. Respectfully
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:37:40 GMT -8
Reduce multiple by 5%+ next week after earnings, IMHO
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:38:54 GMT -8
You can't invest with options. You can't buy and hold expiring derivatives. You just can't.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:44:39 GMT -8
Interesting. 615-620ish is support from around August.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 8:45:29 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP GOOG. Mid-670s. Ouch. Elevator going down, looks like the 200 DMA is a given. Take a look at CMG (Chipotle), that's a reason to cry. Next stop for a disaster is probably going to be AMZN. Not because I hate their guts and insanely jealous of that PE but because of the ridiculous EPS growth rates posted for next year. Q4 (2012), Q1, Q2 are estimated higher than any qtr in the past year. That's just crazy talk.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 8:45:54 GMT -8
You can't invest with options. You can't buy and hold expiring derivatives. You just can't. I'm learning this the painful way. I should have sold my Jan 13 spreads last month. They're still green, but I could have sold above 75% of the max value and had money to buy this dip.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:46:31 GMT -8
when share price drop to a level technical support can no longer support. The only support we can look to is Fundamental. for instance PE ration. so do not panic sell, look at the fundamental, if it is intact, believe in them because those are the reason why we buy the share at the first place. There's always another technical level. And when you can't see what that is, there's always what I will call the "mechanical floor", which is what we just hit, when sellers dry up and buyers step in and overwhelm them. These days it's less about people and more about machines running programs, but the principles are the same. They are programmed to only push the price so far away from a mean value before they stop and then possibly start pushing it back to that mean value once more.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 19, 2012 8:49:33 GMT -8
Nom Nom Nom, time to go long. I love this guy. He called the bottom the first time we bounced off the 100-day, and he was damned right. Great call.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:49:35 GMT -8
There is a price floor under which it is tough to push AAPL through.
If you want to call it technicals that's fine. But institutions don't all buy on technicals AFAIK.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 8:49:41 GMT -8
You can't invest with options. You can't buy and hold expiring derivatives. You just can't. to take that full circle then you cant be an investor if you intend to sell commons at all once purchased :-) and myself I have not been a buy and hold, sorry hope individual for many years now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:50:53 GMT -8
We're not done with the trading day yet. Trends can change in a flash.
Though for the moment? Hey, support level!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 19, 2012 8:51:48 GMT -8
I'm going to take a Sponge-esque punt on an upside target of 636 for today or Monday. Fire up the jets, good buddies. We had been using the Saturn V, but jets are fine if they get us to the same place.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 19, 2012 8:53:21 GMT -8
Well...following AAPL is certainly great for one's humility. Some of you may recall that I was very happy to have nabbed some shares at 655 at the beginning of the month, confident that the bottom would not fall much below 650. This has been a great reminder why buy and hold is the right strategy for me. I am chastened, but still looking forward to April.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:54:46 GMT -8
Nom Nom Nom, time to go long. I love this guy. He called the bottom the first time we bounced off the 100-day, and he was damned right. Great call. Cheers, Rutgersguy. I've only been staring at AAPL for the last 8 years or so. After a while you start seeing the same things repeating and get a feel for what is likely to happen next. Doesn't guarantee all my calls are correct, though. I've made plenty of duff ones too.
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Post by macwire on Oct 19, 2012 8:56:08 GMT -8
Don't kid yourself either. If you're buying Apr 13s, you're trading. Same with '14, '15 LEAPs if they're a big part of your portfolio. Obviously it's a continuum and everyone's portfolios are different. I invest and I trade (mostly trade). But self-identification at least of individual buys helps focus the mind. I have to respectfully disagree with you there Mav. I do know this sometimes comes down to unwritten rules but I view investing as analyzing the fundamentals, basing a buy on on the fundamentals and selling when the fundamentals don't meet the individual investors criteria. Whereas trading I view as relying on TA and attempting to make a gain based on the various TA criteria once again defined by the individual trader. Now an investor may of course use TA at the time of selling when the fundamental criteria limit is reached or nearing just to squeeze out a slightly more favorable selling price of the day. Essentially using two small examples; with my 2014 or even Apr 13 options I am not concerned with the RSI for the day and I don't believe a trader is watching the PE, PEG etc... as they make decisions. Regarding holding options vs commons; options have evolved to the point they might as well be commons on the longer term options as there are more similarities than differences. Lot of opinion here and I guess much is based on perspective but this is mine. Respectfully This. Summed up my reply.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 8:56:37 GMT -8
Strategy here...
Deploy cash here, wait for a potential post-earnings dip or do nothing?
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 19, 2012 8:57:08 GMT -8
You can't invest with options. You can't buy and hold expiring derivatives. You just can't. to take that full circle then you cant be an investor if you intend to sell commons at all once purchased :-) and myself I have not been a buy and hold, sorry hope individual for many years now. I have to agree with Mav. I used to think my LEAPS were investments. Not so. It's not that you necessarily intend to buy and hold a stock, but it's good to have the option. With options you don't have that option.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:57:51 GMT -8
It would not surprise me if we saw 650 again next week, but also would not surprise me if that was followed by another trip back to these levels once more. Events and earnings are always a bit of a lottery and we have one of each coming down the track.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:59:10 GMT -8
You can trade on fundamentals.
I still do.
But derivatives are derivatives. That understanding helps you act with more care and at greater speed, contradictory as that sounds. Hey, just my opinion.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 9:01:15 GMT -8
Strategy here... Deploy cash here, wait for a potential post-earnings dip or do nothing? Depends on your time frame. I see the next couple of weeks being a bit volatile, but after that we could see a nice run up to a new high. Much depends on whether Europe falls apart and who the Pres is.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 9:04:40 GMT -8
680 is important because a 3% move from that number will get us back to $700. In my view if we don't get to $650 post earnings, get ready to see $570 again. There is a boat load of options above $650 in January that they would love to see expire worthless. If they can get it below $600 before then they will cause even more panic in Nov and Dec. I don't see it happening, but one needs to be ready for it incase. I still think we will close just below 630 at this point today. Why is 3% important? WAG?
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 19, 2012 9:09:38 GMT -8
Bought 20 November 700's at $3.20. Small bet so all or nothing is ok but I'm really hoping for "all" Right with you there, AT... scraped together couch change and got one (yes 1) at $3.05. I could not "bear" to completely sit out this sale.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 9:10:56 GMT -8
Exercise caution with calls and puts. IV getting very high...
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 19, 2012 9:12:18 GMT -8
I am getting very close to the point where I have decided to sell all of my apple shares. I have figured that my break even point is about 590.00 or so give or take a few bucks. I really do not want to sell everything and walk away but apple continues to fall and I am getting more worried by the day.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 9:13:26 GMT -8
Nate, we're nearing the end of this -- IMHO, don't sell SHARES here!!!!! They don't expire!!!!!
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 19, 2012 9:14:52 GMT -8
I am getting very close to the point where I have decided to sell all of my apple shares. I have figured that my break even point is about 590.00 or so give or take a few bucks. I really do not want to sell everything and walk away but apple continues to fall and I am getting more worried by the day. Why in the hell would you sell when it's bottoming??? Seriously, you say this every time there's a pullback. Why? Corrections end. Always. Not just for Apple, but for any stock where the company's underlying business is still doing well.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 9:14:55 GMT -8
Strategy here... Deploy cash here, wait for a potential post-earnings dip or do nothing? I like to scale in. Today I added to: APR'13 685/705 bull put spreads JAN'14 800/850 bull call spreads And sold the last of my cheap hedges OCT'12 615/625 bear put spreads (bought for .20)
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 9:17:44 GMT -8
Travis tweeted this earlier today
Those highs are the HOD. I will be keeping this in mind for plays in January.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 9:18:25 GMT -8
Nate, we're nearing the end of this -- IMHO, don't sell SHARES here!!!!! They don't expire!!!!! iPad, don't you think it's time Nate sells everything once and for all? His pain sounds excruciating.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 9:18:42 GMT -8
I am getting very close to the point where I have decided to sell all of my apple shares. I have figured that my break even point is about 590.00 or so give or take a few bucks. I really do not want to sell everything and walk away but apple continues to fall and I am getting more worried by the day. Calm down Nate. You're panic selling again. Or at least thinking about it. Long term you are fine.
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