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Post by tofdriver on Nov 7, 2012 12:59:41 GMT -8
Is there a legal (or tax) reason preventing AAPL from making a strategic decision to buy back a large (say, $10-20 billion) quantity of shares in the near term? Otherwise, I have to think that that would be fairly tempting for them right now... FWIW this is taken from the transcript of the Earnings call: In August, we entered into a rule 10b5-1 compliant accelerated share repurchase program, with the financial institution to purchase out the $2 billion of Apple stock during fiscal year Â’13.
In addition to shares purchased through the accelerated share repurchase program, we may also purchase shares in open market transaction in compliance with our applicable securities laws.So it appears that Apple may do a share buy-back. How much and when I have no idea. Thank you, I couldn't find the source but was pretty sure I have read it somewhere.
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Post by rosie on Nov 7, 2012 13:02:11 GMT -8
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Post by capablanca on Nov 7, 2012 13:02:46 GMT -8
Good to see you here, Cap. (Old guy from the old board.) Thank you. And likewise. "Old guy" reminds me of a story. OT, but a little at the close humor won't hurt ... Cary Grant carefully guarded his actual age. A reporter, hoping to catch him at a weak moment, sent him a telegram: "How old Cary Grant?" Grant wired back "Old Cary Grant fine. How you?"
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Post by prazan on Nov 7, 2012 13:07:24 GMT -8
No it is simple calculation AAPL will have approx. 42.EPS if they say fractionally miss their guidance of 11.75EPS. and will have around say 128 bill in cash. Therefore 10X42+128/0.94=$556. This means if you think 10XEPS +Cash per share is a bottom for the stock. A fractional miss is priced into the stock. IE this is lowest fundamentally I think it should go. Of Course it go much lower but it would be a deviation from the historic fundamentals that the stock has had for years. True, but IF (I don't think they will) AAPL slightly misses their EPS estimate of $11.75, they will be a company who is posting shrinking EPS on a year over year basis. Ask RIMM how Wall Street prices companies who post shrinking EPS. Again, not saying it will happen, but if AAPL starts shrinking, there is no way we stay around a PE of 13 (or 10 Ex-cash). IMHO, I don't see how Apple misses their guidance. They set the bar really low. And even if the improbable happens (and it has happened before) RIM was in decline because they weren't offering a competitive product. They were suffering a demand problem. If Apple were to miss, it would be because they can't manufacture enough product to meet demand. Their flagship product takes 3-4 weeks for order fulfillment. Their hot new product is experiencing similar delays. That's a manufacturing/supply problem, which I suspect the market would treat differently, at least in the long term.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 13:10:10 GMT -8
Anyone know what 1Q12 guidance was?
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Post by macoz on Nov 7, 2012 13:15:57 GMT -8
Anyone know what 1Q12 guidance was? It was $9.30 with Revenues of $37B.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 13:16:05 GMT -8
True, but IF (I don't think they will) AAPL slightly misses their EPS estimate of $11.75, they will be a company who is posting shrinking EPS on a year over year basis. Ask RIMM how Wall Street prices companies who post shrinking EPS. Again, not saying it will happen, but if AAPL starts shrinking, there is no way we stay around a PE of 13 (or 10 Ex-cash). IMHO, I don't see how Apple misses their guidance. They set the bar really low. That's a manufacturing/supply problem, which I suspect the market would treat differently, at least in the long term. As long as they can demonstrate that supply increased over the course of the quarter, and margins improved, then wall street may give them a pass. Assuming, of course, that they beat their margins (38% would be a minimum, with at least 10% beat on revenue) and meet those of analysts. In fact, if they hit the numbers I mention, then that would assure a beat of the $13+ consensus estimate by the analysts, I do believe. They roll out in China in December, so they would get them there, but supply again is critical. Talk to them, Terry. Not sure if the golden age of big beats is over. I don't want to think it is.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 13:17:48 GMT -8
Anyone know what 1Q12 guidance was? It was $9.30 with Revenues of $37B. I got $38.76B on the guidance, and $46.33B actual. GM was 44.7%. EPS actual was $13.87.
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Post by macoz on Nov 7, 2012 13:23:31 GMT -8
It was $9.30 with Revenues of $37B. I got $38.76B on the guidance, and $46.33B actual. GM was 44.7%. EPS actual was $13.87. This is extracted from the Q4/2011 Earnings Call transcript: We expect revenues to be about $37 billion compared to $26.7 billion in the December quarter last year. We expect gross margin to be about 40%, reflecting approximately $60 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OpEx to be about $3.25 billion, including about $350 million related to stock-based compensation. We expect OI&E to be about $85 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 24.25%. We are targeting EPS of about $9.30.
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Post by trespif on Nov 7, 2012 13:24:32 GMT -8
It's impossible to predict the short term, of course--I really wouldn't be that surprised if we end the week at 540 or 590. Cap gains tax selling could drag us far lower than many of us may have thought possible through the end of the year. But the fundamentals remain very solid, and we should have a very big holiday quarter. If we keep dropping I'll just get excited about buying some Jan 13 calls right after new years.
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Post by mcharliem on Nov 7, 2012 13:26:01 GMT -8
QCOM just reported very strong earnings and guidance.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 13:29:52 GMT -8
QCOM just reported very strong earnings and guidance. That's good. I remember in April that their not so good results caused AAPL to tank. Maybe we get some relief.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 7, 2012 13:43:58 GMT -8
It's impossible to predict the short term, of course--I really wouldn't be that surprised if we end the week at 540 or 590. Cap gains tax selling could drag us far lower than many of us may have thought possible through the end of the year. But the fundamentals remain very solid, and we should have a very big holiday quarter. If we keep dropping I'll just get excited about buying some Jan 13 calls right after new years. Cap gains selling could impact, but it might be minimal. Unlike with cap losses, one can take one's gains and then immediately buy-back the shares sold. The net effect is 1) gain taken for taxes, 2) no change to portfolio holdings, 3) no net change to supply or demand in the market.
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 7, 2012 13:43:58 GMT -8
all gains this year gone. ): very sad day indeed. will just have to be patient and try not to look at the stock for the next month or so... i'm long only but still sucks big time. was in the same boat last year, not much different... Hang in there. Your horse is down big, when it gets going again it will pull you along. AAPL is not a $560 stock. It will be over $700 within the next few months. Just hang in there. thanks Rutgers, i believe that too. just can't read too much news else i'll change my mind lol. i still believe in a quick recuperation in a few weeks' time but i will take anything that's green at this point. (: Good luck
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 13:49:40 GMT -8
Relentless.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 13:50:40 GMT -8
For some perspective, here is the results from a Dec 31st 2013 share price prediction thread we had in the old AFB from the beginning of the year: Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09 Thank you for this!!!!!!!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 7, 2012 13:56:04 GMT -8
FUD!
Good news tweets from Bullish Cross...
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 14:03:07 GMT -8
It's impossible to predict the short term, of course--I really wouldn't be that surprised if we end the week at 540 or 590. Cap gains tax selling could drag us far lower than many of us may have thought possible through the end of the year. But the fundamentals remain very solid, and we should have a very big holiday quarter. If we keep dropping I'll just get excited about buying some Jan 13 calls right after new years. Cap gains selling could impact, but it might be minimal. Unlike with cap losses, one can take one's gains and then immediately buy-back the shares sold. The net effect is 1) gain taken for taxes, 2) no change to portfolio holdings, 3) no net change to supply or demand in the market. Wonderful that someone already pointed this out. I have contemplated taking some gains to avoid taxes, but I would buy back immediately. Re: supply issues. China rollout at the beginning of December suggests to me that the supply chain is healthy.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 14:07:45 GMT -8
FUD! Good news tweets from Bullish Cross... I'm wondering who exactly Andy is talking to.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Nov 7, 2012 14:16:37 GMT -8
FUD! Good news tweets from Bullish Cross... I'm wondering who exactly Andy is talking to. Tim Cook, Peter Oppenheimer, or somebody from Apple need to communicate something to the market about what's going on with the supply concerns. They are really dropping the ball on this and the shareholders are paying the price.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 14:19:05 GMT -8
Andy might be freaking out a little because his subscribers are probably quite pissed off at him right now.
When has Apple ever issued a press release to deny rumors though? I don't see it happening.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 14:28:02 GMT -8
Cap gains selling could impact, but it might be minimal. Unlike with cap losses, one can take one's gains and then immediately buy-back the shares sold. The net effect is 1) gain taken for taxes, 2) no change to portfolio holdings, 3) no net change to supply or demand in the market. Re: supply issues. China rollout at the beginning of December suggests to me that the supply chain is healthy. I don't draw that conclusion. AAPL has put the schedule in place for the Chinese roll-out, whether the manufacturer can deliver is another story. Hopefully, TC has other manufacturers in place (Brazil?), as any good supply chain guy does not put all his eggs in one basket. You always have redundant manufacturers, to prevent against a Japanese earthquake type situation.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 7, 2012 14:29:46 GMT -8
Zaky allegedly tweeted the following conversation with someone at Apple:
"...I responded that by that time Apple could be at $200 a share. What good will that due for us? Apple needs to dispel these supply concerns"
If he really believes Apple is a great business, he should welcome such a share price and back up a fleet of trucks...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 14:32:03 GMT -8
so did I, 100 points ago. doh! I started buying the dip 100 points ago too. This has been really painful. Why? You bought AAPL at about $665. In a year it will be trading at $765, a 15% gain (excellent in this environment). In two years AAPL will be trading at $900, a 35% gain. For reference, last year at this time AAPL was trading at ~$400. Today's low represents a gain of 38%. Ahhh, poke me in the eye with a sharp stick. What we have here is Buyer's Remorse extraordinaire (Gee, had I waited I could have got a better price). You guys aren't thinking like investors, you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Get over it.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 14:37:42 GMT -8
Zaky allegedly tweeted the following conversation with someone at Apple: "...I responded that by that time Apple could be at $200 a share. What good will that due for us? Apple needs to dispel these supply concerns" If he really believes Apple is a great business, he should welcome such a share price and back up a fleet of trucks... That's also inside information of a material and non-public nature. He has to be more careful.
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Post by erictheoracle on Nov 7, 2012 14:37:51 GMT -8
And you can only talk about AAPL, not broader, market moving , events and news. You've created a forum where we get to watch people lose money in a benevolent, mushroom kind of way!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 14:47:17 GMT -8
I started buying the dip 100 points ago too. This has been really painful. Why? You bought AAPL at about $665. In a year it will be trading at $765, a 15% gain (excellent in this environment). In two years AAPL will be trading at $900, a 35% gain. For reference, last year at this time AAPL was trading at ~$400. Today's low represents a gain of 38%. Ahhh, poke me in the eye with a sharp stick. What we have here is Buyer's Remorse extraordinaire (Gee, had I waited I could have got a better price). You guys aren't thinking like investors, you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Get over it. Nice post Gregg.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 7, 2012 14:57:06 GMT -8
I started buying the dip 100 points ago too. This has been really painful. Why? You bought AAPL at about $665. In a year it will be trading at $765, a 15% gain (excellent in this environment). In two years AAPL will be trading at $900, a 35% gain. For reference, last year at this time AAPL was trading at ~$400. Today's low represents a gain of 38%. Ahhh, poke me in the eye with a sharp stick. What we have here is Buyer's Remorse extraordinaire (Gee, had I waited I could have got a better price). You guys aren't thinking like investors, you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Get over it. I think the last couple of months should have taught us that making statements such as "Apple wil be XXX by XXX" isn't very productive. Didn't you say you were simply going to follow the big boys (I agree with the strategy, by the way)? What if they decide to tank the P/E further? Apple can grow 30% for the next two years, but if the big boys decide to value it at a 10 P/E (who says they can't?) it's only a $700 stock. I'm not implying this will happen, but I'm saying it can. We can be quite sure of the fundamentals of the company but we canno be sure about the share price by a certain date.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 7, 2012 15:03:36 GMT -8
The day after the elections four years ago, the market tanked 5%. I should have been smart enough to see this one coming. But then, Apple has more than quintupled in the four years since then, even with this price decline. I'm trying to keep my head out of the chaos of the moment, and hoping history repeats itself. And what did it do when Bill Clinton was reelected? :-)
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Post by chasmac on Nov 7, 2012 15:08:38 GMT -8
I think the last couple of months should have taught us that making statements such as "Apple wil be XXX by XXX" isn't very productive. Didn't you say you were simply going to follow the big boys (I agree with the strategy, by the way)? What if they decide to tank the P/E further? Apple can grow 30% for the next two years, but if the big boys decide to value it at a 10 P/E (who says they can't?) it's only a $700 stock. I'm not implying this will happen, but I'm saying it can. We can be quite sure of the fundamentals of the company but we canno be sure about the share price by a certain date. +1. I hate price targets on AFB (for anything other than very short term trades). If someone wants to predict something, then stick to .eps going forward. At least then we can all apply our own fuzzy logic to those numbers based on seasonality/sentiment/timeframes.
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