Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 15:19:01 GMT -8
Just read Andy's tweets (@bullishcross) and if they are an actual conversation with an apple investor relations representative, then it's good news.
I agree that if there was some sort of serious production issue, TC would have mentioned it on the very recent conference call. To not do so would be risky from a shareholder lawsuit point of view.
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Nov 7, 2012 15:52:01 GMT -8
...you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Exactly! I want my goddamn 10% price match guarantee, and I want it now!
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Nov 7, 2012 15:58:08 GMT -8
I do apologize if that was not clear. I understood you perfectly. And yet, I still couldn't resist the smarty-pants comment ;D
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 7, 2012 15:59:38 GMT -8
Its the bottom. I know it. Havent made a bottom call yet but here it is. capitulation. PE bottom. worst day is today. best is yet to come. 650 before december.
inverse FUD hopefully works
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 16:02:02 GMT -8
Just read Andy's tweets (@bullishcross) and if they are an actual conversation with an apple investor relations representative, then it's good news. I agree that if there was some sort of serious production issue, TC would have mentioned it on the very recent conference call. To not do so would be risky from a shareholder lawsuit point of view. The comment fro Mr. Gao can be taken more than one way. It may be that Apple's ramp schedule is faster than anticipated. With the very good launch in India t would seem that Apple is building/selling a lot of phones.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 16:06:59 GMT -8
Just read Andy's tweets (@bullishcross) and if they are an actual conversation with an apple investor relations representative, then it's good news. I agree that if there was some sort of serious production issue, TC would have mentioned it on the very recent conference call. To not do so would be risky from a shareholder lawsuit point of view. The comment fro Mr. Gao can be taken more than one way. It may be that Apple's ramp schedule is faster than anticipated. With the very good launch in India t would seem that Apple is building/selling a lot of phones. Agreed. Foxconn can't keep up with demand - only question is how far behind they are. If demand is 60 million iphones this quarter - is Foxconn 10, 20 or 30 million phones behind?
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Nov 7, 2012 16:09:41 GMT -8
Its the bottom. I know it. Havent made a bottom call yet but here it is. capitulation. PE bottom. worst day is today. best is yet to come. 650 before december. inverse FUD hopefully works iFUD?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 16:33:52 GMT -8
Its the bottom. I know it. Havent made a bottom call yet but here it is. capitulation. PE bottom. worst day is today. best is yet to come. 650 before december. inverse FUD hopefully works You must live in Colorado or Washington. ;D Today was not capitulation, far from it. We did not reverse on volume. Story still sucks, no bottom in sight.
|
|
|
Post by jcaron on Nov 7, 2012 16:52:05 GMT -8
let me try to dispel the "supply issues" for the iphone 5 as being component supply related. Last week on the evening of Nov 3, my wife and I went to our local Verizon store and ordered (2) 32gb iPhone 5's. One black and one white. We were quoted a ship by date of Nov 16. I was sort of hoping for that date because our current cell plan is only $60/month. Actually, prior to going to the store I was planning on 3-4 weeks. Today we got notification that our phones have shipped via fed ex. Far, far sooner than even my most optimistic expectations. Couple that with Cirrus Logic's earnings results and tonights results from Qualcom does anyone really believe that the iPhone 5 is supply constrained?? I had doubts before, now I just dont believe it..
|
|
|
Post by steeler on Nov 7, 2012 17:34:11 GMT -8
but apple website still says 3-4 weeks waiting time for iphone5.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 17:46:07 GMT -8
It's stranger here in NZ - you can walk into a telco store and walk out instantly with an iPhone 5 unlocked & off contract cheaper than what apples online store sells it for (and apple online still has a 3-4 week delivery estimate).
|
|
|
Post by jcaron on Nov 7, 2012 17:50:09 GMT -8
but apple website still says 3-4 weeks waiting time for iphone5. Hence my post where I state " I was planning 3-4 weeks". The woman at Verizon said they always gave customers a "ship by" date 14 days out but that people were getting their phones much sooner.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Nov 7, 2012 17:51:24 GMT -8
I started buying the dip 100 points ago too. This has been really painful. Why? You bought AAPL at about $665. In a year it will be trading at $765, a 15% gain (excellent in this environment). In two years AAPL will be trading at $900, a 35% gain. For reference, last year at this time AAPL was trading at ~$400. Today's low represents a gain of 38%. Ahhh, poke me in the eye with a sharp stick. What we have here is Buyer's Remorse extraordinaire (Gee, had I waited I could have got a better price). You guys aren't thinking like investors, you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Get over it. Except you're wrong on the facts. What you say may apply to shares but doesn't necessarily apply to the options trade in question.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Nov 7, 2012 18:40:24 GMT -8
WHOA! what a deal! probably a 720 not a 1080. BUT HD TV prices are still falling. The pricing reminds me of microwave ovens.
|
|
|
Post by johng on Nov 7, 2012 18:49:54 GMT -8
For some perspective, here is the results from a Dec 31st 2013 share price prediction thread we had in the old AFB from the beginning of the year: Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09 hahaha........... I'm closest right now! bwaaaahhhh! JohnG
|
|
|
Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 19:09:12 GMT -8
let me try to dispel the "supply issues" for the iphone 5 as being component supply related. Last week on the evening of Nov 3, my wife and I went to our local Verizon store and ordered (2) 32gb iPhone 5's. One black and one white. We were quoted a ship by date of Nov 16. I was sort of hoping for that date because our current cell plan is only $60/month. Actually, prior to going to the store I was planning on 3-4 weeks. Today we got notification that our phones have shipped via fed ex. Far, far sooner than even my most optimistic expectations. Couple that with Cirrus Logic's earnings results and tonights results from Qualcom does anyone really believe that the iPhone 5 is supply constrained?? I had doubts before, now I just dont believe it.. Verizon / ATT stores will get the iphone before apple stores will or online will. Not sure why but that's how it is. Not sure if all but the big apple stores (all the NY ones) have iphones ever single day but they are all in store pickup iphones. you can get 1 day turnaround if you buy your iphone at 10pm at night. So the wait times are really 1. 1 day if you reserve it at 10pm and get it from an apple store 2. Probably 1 to 2 weeks from ATT or Verizon 3. Online ordering with delivery 4 to 6 weeks 4. walk into an apple store and buy it most likely not until January. (once this is fixed we have equilibrium) Best bet is either doing the 10pm thing or ordering it from your carrier. There is definitely supply. Probably 350-400K+ a day they are selling.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 7, 2012 19:40:03 GMT -8
Zaky allegedly tweeted the following conversation with someone at Apple: "...I responded that by that time Apple could be at $200 a share. What good will that due for us? Apple needs to dispel these supply concerns" If he really believes Apple is a great business, he should welcome such a share price and back up a fleet of trucks... That's also inside information of a material and non-public nature. He has to be more careful. I don't see a press release. If everyone remembers TC stated he could meet demand based on the numbers for the qtr. He didn't express doubt by any statement and I certainly did not hear any hesitation. So with the guidance as a baseline we are left with what we always are: How much are they going to beat by? What does Zaky expect him to do? Issue a statement that there are no supply chain issues with a number higher than guidance?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 19:47:47 GMT -8
WHOA! what a deal! probably a 720 not a 1080. BUT HD TV prices are still falling. The pricing reminds me of microwave ovens. This is why Apple will not build a TV. The prices are dropping so much there is no reason to get into the fire sale.
|
|
|
Post by osx10 on Nov 7, 2012 19:49:20 GMT -8
As much as I hate to admit it, I think Cramer is right (his theme today was take profits on your winners). A lot of the selling now (and I plan to do the same soon) is people looking to avoid the extra taxes next year and cashing out now.
In normal times, we'd likely buy it all back right away (for fear of it running on us if China Mobile for example was announced), but with it tanking I think some big LONG winners are waiting to reinvest until the absolute perceived bottom.
I expected large sales before the year end because of the fiscal cliff, I just didn't expect it before Black Friday and the Holiday buzz Apple likely will get.
When it reverses, I think it moves rapidly. My fear is that may not be until Late jan/Feb.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 19:52:20 GMT -8
Even a flat day tomorrow would be a welcome relief from this slaughter
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 19:56:35 GMT -8
Yep, good ol Cramer, selll, sell, sell. S&P has dropped 90 points from its recent high and AAPl is trading at a 12.6 p/e. Yep, time to sell.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 19:57:10 GMT -8
Even a flat day tomorrow would be a welcome relief from this slaughter I hear you.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 7, 2012 20:03:01 GMT -8
As much as I hate to admit it, I think Cramer is right (his theme today was take profits on your winners). A lot of the selling now (and I plan to do the same soon) is people looking to avoid the extra taxes next year and cashing out now. In normal times, we'd likely buy it all back right away (for fear of it running on us if China Mobile for example was announced), but with it tanking I think some big LONG winners are waiting to reinvest until the absolute perceived bottom. I expected large sales before the year end because of the fiscal cliff, I just didn't expect it before Black Friday and the Holiday buzz Apple likely will get. When it reverses, I think it moves rapidly. My fear is that may not be until Late jan/Feb. He could be right. However if history is any lesson his stock advice has not been accurate so now he's clairvoyant on why people are selling? Based on what evidence? The sellers today sent him a quick email with a Jim I'm selling because... Ridiculous. Yes some people are more conservative on taxes as perhaps yourself which is understandable but there is zero evidence that is the majority. Also I would argue there is equal evidence that after this 7 week drop there is a bunch of cash waiting to get back in as they have already paid taxes on their gains when they sold.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Nov 7, 2012 20:10:14 GMT -8
I dunno. I've had pretty good luck over the years by buying LEAPs after the stock fell 10% or so (which it did regularly once or twice a year). I did the same this time, but it continued going down as it passed that 10% mark. So I continued buying - mostly Jan '15 calls. I even bought more today! I also bought some more actual shares near the close on Friday thinking that 575 would be the low, or near the low. I was wrong, it went lower this week. Now we wait and see.
|
|
|
Post by Zeke on Nov 7, 2012 20:40:50 GMT -8
I have to keep reminding myself that one year ago, Apple was at 400. At 550, I am up 37% for the year in addition to the dividend. Why would I want to sell this stock? What other stock with these fundamentals offers this kind of growth? Are people really just going to stop using Apple products? really? This is safer than treasuries and a lot more fun. Nope, just time for a deep breath. Note to EO's....Capitulate on this. +1.......We've been here before.
|
|
jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
|
Post by jz on Nov 7, 2012 21:31:21 GMT -8
For some perspective, here is the results from a Dec 31st 2013 share price prediction thread we had in the old AFB from the beginning of the year: Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09 hahaha........... I'm closest right now! bwaaaahhhh! JohnG If you had tried to tell me then what was going to happen with The share price I would have thought you were crazy. It really is insane what we have been through. My 584 could be in the running for dec. 31, but I would really like to see something closer to $700.
|
|
|
Post by madmaxroi on Nov 7, 2012 21:44:03 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 21:45:18 GMT -8
I think the last couple of months should have taught us that making statements such as "Apple wil be XXX by XXX" isn't very productive. Didn't you say you were simply going to follow the big boys (I agree with the strategy, by the way)? What if they decide to tank the P/E further? Apple can grow 30% for the next two years, but if the big boys decide to value it at a 10 P/E (who says they can't?) it's only a $700 stock. I'm not implying this will happen, but I'm saying it can. We can be quite sure of the fundamentals of the company but we cannot be sure about the share price by a certain date. Timeline of the typical retail investor: Listen to Earnings/Guidance Decide that earnings?guidance is good/bad Wait until end of quarter to make earnings/price target estimates (need to read all those rumor mills). Get pissed when Apple doesn't perform as they "should" Blame evil market overlords and manipulation for losses Timeline of the typical institutional investor Listen to Earnings/Guidance Compare guidance to historical deltas Within two weeks Confirm results of comparisons with channel (aka suppliers) sources Within 4 weeks Establish earnings/price target based on confirmation of anticipated results Within 6 weeks Recontact channel sources for confirmation of performance vs guidance/estimates Within 8 weeks Do above again Make adjustments in estimates based on recheck of channel Within 9 weeks Commence buying/selling strategy based on channel check results Within 12 weeks Complete buying/selling strategy ahead of earnings Within 14 weeks Take advantage of earlier buying/selling strategy post earnings report The deal is that nearly all amateurs treat earnings estimation as a contest for bragging rights, hence estimates are made late in the quarter. Institutions, on the other hand, treat guidance/estimates as a base line to gauge performance during the quarter, in order to position themselves appropriately weeks AHEAD OF EARNINGS. Amateurs are reactive. Institutions are proactive. Ergo, institutions do not arbitrarily decide to drive an equity one way or the other, the equity moves in sympathy to the institutions buying/selling strategy determined by channel check intelligence. It is whether Apple has performed to guidance, or not, that drives the strategies of the institutions. Whether AAPL goes up, or down, $20, $50, $100, $200, or more, is all dependent on what the institutions learn from their channel sources. You must keep in mind that institutional sentiment can change prior to it showing up in price directional change, much like when you hit the brakes, and you car continues to move forward for some distance before stopping. In my estimation institutional sentiment bottomed over a week ago, and has been sliding to a directional reversal. Distaste for the Presidential election results caused a temporary dip, that will reverse in short order. The value of AAPL is what it is, based on expectations of future earnings. The problem is that, as amateurs, we CANNOT be sure of the fundamentals of the Company, until we are told at earnings. Institutions, can, using their resources, see the changes in Apple's fundamentals well ahead of us. In order to survive, we must watch those with the resources we can only dream about, and emulate their strategies PRE-EARNINGS. Nothing in charting or EPS estimating prepares us for that. In other words, we have been watching the WRONG BALL. Now, going back to a favorite subject of mine, whether Apple misses its guidance, I would like to point out that since January earnings 2010, Apple has missed earnings 8 times (out of 12 quarters). In each case the cause can be directly attributed to a failure in iOS device sales (Scot Forstall's turf). During this period AAPL's ISM (PE) dropped (rather sharply) from 22 to 10. Institutional sentiment (caused by repeated misses) has held AAPL's multiple down. Pure speculation, but I think Forstall commenced an effort to succeed Jobs as CEO in 2009, and that that effort diluted his efforts in his own division, resulting in poor performance meeting product delivery schedules. Coupled with his abrasive personality, this led to the departure of Ron Johnson and the "retirement" of Mansfield. TC could not take action until he had been CEO for at least a year, and Jobs didn't take action before that because of his waning health/strength. But now it is done, with statements coming out of Apple about renewed cooperation and interdivisional communication. TC's management reorganization plan has clearly implemented responsibility overlaps. I do not think the iPhone 5 is especially hard to manufacture. Most of it is done with robotics. The problems with iPhone launches can all be attributed to the late arrival of the new version of iOS (and the features that OS would support). What does this mean going forward? In the short term (this quarter) I think Apple can produce as much hardware as it wants. Wether it does will depend on how long it takes to fix iOS. Going into the March quarter I see iOS problems as being mostly corrected. The signal we should be looking for is AAPL price action in the 3 to 4 weeks prior to earnings. If AAPL suddenly starts to go down for now apparent reason, then the institutions, though their channel checks, have determined that Apple is going to have trouble making its numbers. I'm going to be watching for an uptick starting about this time. How far AAPL goes, one way or the other, will depend on what the institutions have learned from their channel checks. Bottom line is that the institutions do not "drive" AAPL anywhere, AAPL goes where the buyers and sellers take it, based on their understanding of Apple performance fundamentals.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 21:54:45 GMT -8
Today was not capitulation, far from it. We did not reverse on volume. Story still sucks, no bottom in sight. There is more than one way capitulation can be determined. For me, the most important "capitulation" is that of the investment group that controls, and therefore can move, the most stock...institutions. Institutional sentiment bottomed about 10 days ago. What we are experiencing now is the time it takes to stop after hitting your brakes, or if you prefer, how long it takes to turn the Titanic after spinning the wheel hard to starboard.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 21:56:34 GMT -8
Why? You bought AAPL at about $665. In a year it will be trading at $765, a 15% gain (excellent in this environment). In two years AAPL will be trading at $900, a 35% gain. For reference, last year at this time AAPL was trading at ~$400. Today's low represents a gain of 38%. Ahhh, poke me in the eye with a sharp stick. What we have here is Buyer's Remorse extraordinaire (Gee, had I waited I could have got a better price). You guys aren't thinking like investors, you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Get over it. Except you're wrong on the facts. What you say may apply to shares but doesn't necessarily apply to the options trade in question. Why?
|
|