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Post by rickag on Sept 18, 2012 16:08:58 GMT -8
Mav, even when I'm agreeing with you I disagree (don't back down; if we weren't overall bullish AAPL we wouldn't have a forum). Not only that, but the iPhone 5 was the first total refresh in 27 months, so not analogous to 4S. Yes, and it won't take a full quarter for it to affect the stock price, IMO. It might be baked-in by Oct, but it will be there. Yep. Is $GOOG exuberant at a 21 P/E? Amazon at 315? LOL, imagine having a P/E above your stock price. Exactly. Sounds like a Spongian WAG. Of course, nothing goes up forever without a pullback. But just because AAPL (finally) popped to a PARABOLIC 16 P/E, it doesn't mean we don't have plenty of pop left. The pop that keeps on popping? I'm just tired of seeing Apple get called out anytime it even catches up with the S&P 500! No offense goodwine. Do not mistake passion and conviction for anger or hostility. But there is no shortage of bear cases out there, and we all hear them, even if we try to avoid CNBC. I'm here to keep it real, not earn Karma points (as if that were a big risk). I've got the message. Won't bother posting again. Please reconsider, healthy civil discussion is valuable.
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Post by jcaron on Sept 18, 2012 16:15:05 GMT -8
Keep posting goodwine.. I happen to agree with you.. potential catalysts.. Macro events. technical...... 3 days trading / closing above the upper BB on the daily. Fast stoch at 78 on hourly, rsi 14, 7 on hourly 68, 72 Macd crossed down on hourly.
Some indicators not at EXTREME levels but high enough to warrant caution and take profits on short / intermediate positions (which I did yesterday and today). Still long apple, google, Fusion IO and Qualcom.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 18, 2012 16:16:57 GMT -8
How Many iPhones Must Apple Sell to Keep the Street Happy? Published: Tuesday, 18 Sep 2012 | 8:00 PM ET Text Size By: David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images Apple's iPhone 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apple needs to sell about six million iPhone 5 units by the end of this weekend to ease investors' concern about supply constraints, said Peter Misek, Jefferies managing director and senior technology analyst, Tuesday. "If they do anything greater than six million, it will be a huge positive," Misek said on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Wall Street has been concerned that there are still "significant supply constraints," that would limit Apple [AAPL 701.91 2.129 (+0.3%) ] to only being able to produce about five to six million of the new phones before the end of the month, he added. "So if we get a six million unit number, that will really lay a lot of those concerns," Misek said. He expects the tech giant to sell about eight million iPhone 5 units, including pre-orders, by the end of the first weekend. Tavis McCourt, an analyst for Raymond James, also said he expects Apple to sell about 8 million iPhones during the time period leading up to the last day of Apple's fourth quarter, which is Sept. 29. The iPhone maker announced Monday that it already had two million pre-orders for the iPhone 5 during the first 24 hours it was available online. Apple's stock reached $700 a share for the first time in after-hours trading Monday and the stock closed at a record high of $701.91 Tuesday. But the stock could still go higher, analysts said. More Upside for Tech Giant With more products in the pipeline, Apple [AAPL 701.91 2.129 (+0.3%) ] will continue to have more upside, Misek said. "It's really tough to get off the train right now, you've got the iPad mini, which we think is going to be a blockbuster. iPhone 5 is already a mania, so we've got a really good runway here," he said. While Apple has not confirmed it is making an iPad mini, Misek said he expects the smaller tablet sometime in October. RELATED LINKS Current DateTime: 05:01:12 18 Sep 2012 LinksList Documentid: 49071687 What Are the Next Cool Smartphone Features? AT&T Says It Sets iPhone 5 Sales Record Microsoft Announces Launch Date for Windows 8 James Altucher, founder of Stockpicker.com, said Apple's new products could "easily" push the company's stock price to $1,000. A deal with China Mobile would also be an upside catalyst for Apple, however, the iPhone maker could face challenges striking an agreement with the Chinese company because it is controlled by the Chinese government and they ultimately decide which carrier gets which handsets, Misek said. "China mobile has the most subscribers and the government wants to even out the subscribers," Misek said. "So they want China Telecom and Unicom to gain subscribers for mobile on purpose because China Mobile is so big, so that's really the challenge that Apple is facing with mobile." A deal with the Japanese wireless carrier Docomo would also spur the stock on, Misek said. The company is larger than Verizon [VZ 44.91 0.33 (+0.74%) ] and has a huge 4G LTE network, he said. "Don't underestimate Docomo... They are bleeding describers in Japan like crazy because they don't have an iPhone, so that could be a big subscriber boost as well," he said. Apple's Headwinds Yet, while Apple is expected to continue its growth, there is still a bear case for Apple, said Zach Shafran, an analyst for Ivy Science & Technology Fund, Tuesday. "The bear case obviously is that growth slows, there's more competition, they can't continue to charge these kinds of prices," Shafran said on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. "Clearly, when you get this big and you do this well this fast, you know the growth rate is going to slow." Amazon's [AMZN 258.75 0.75 (+0.29%) ] new Kindle Fire HD is a headwind for Apple as it moves into the first quarter, Altucher said. "The Kindle Fire that is coming out November 20 actually is feature for feature a better tablet tablet than the iPad. So I think that could be a headwind Q1 of next year," Altucher said on CNBC's Street Signs. While there are some bearish cases for the tech giant, there's still plenty of room for the company to grow as it keeps new products in the pipeline, Shafran said. "These guys keep innovating, they keep providing better services. And in some ways they are just getting started," he said. www.cnbc.com/id/49071686?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:20:29 GMT -8
You need to look at all the technicals in context.
Yes, there are some possible trouble indicators, but there always are.
Also, MACD-h on the daily looks like it's just getting started. That's a potential plus to weigh.
I would prefer AAPL take its time and digest a little (which it did, very well actually) before next week, which as I've said before is when my AAPL evaluation really begins.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 16:20:55 GMT -8
Oh, that's just JD's rhetorical flourish. Btw, Sponge is so permabull it's almost ridiculous (some go further than that assessment). We equal-opportunity challenge ALL AAPL theories. It's irresponsible not to. The goal is to max gain with minimal pain, according to one's own investing/trading plan, risk tolerance and timeframe. Rhetorical flourish is the least of the problems of a man who says that unless the person he is addressing is prepared to defend himself, he is in for "withering fire". Really, I can't take this seriously. I expressed some views, and I have better things to do than get attacked for it by someone whose rhetoric wouldn't cut it in a high school debate among 13 year old kids.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 16:23:06 GMT -8
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Post by roni on Sept 18, 2012 16:27:48 GMT -8
Here is the link to PED's postHere is the link to the Bullish Cross pieceSo Apple is going a lot higher. Big News But, here is one thing Andy wrote: We’re not publishing a buy rating today and probably not anytime soon. In fact, Apple is closer to an intermediate-top than it is to a bottom. We only publish buy rating when the stock is sitting near the lows after a prolonged period of consolidationI did well with a trade around the iPhone 5 intro, and I may try to do another one before October earnings. Made 34% on that trade, and the April's I hold now are up in the mid 20%'s for $650s and 43% for $700s - and I have very little cash. Decisions, decisions. Record year so far and I want to make it better At some point I hope to close the Aprils and wait for a dip on the Jan 2015's. My memory is that there has been dips in each quarter. Oy, Oy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 16:31:57 GMT -8
Hi, everyone --
Just a reminder. We don't do flame wars here. Period.
You don't have to like each other. You don't have to agree with each other. You DO have to be respectful to each other.
And if you make my life harder than it has to be, I will not be pleased.
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Post by sponge on Sept 18, 2012 16:32:02 GMT -8
Oh, that's just JD's rhetorical flourish. Btw, Sponge is so permabull it's almost ridiculous (some go further than that assessment). We equal-opportunity challenge ALL AAPL theories. It's irresponsible not to. The goal is to max gain with minimal pain, according to one's own investing/trading plan, risk tolerance and timeframe. Rhetorical flourish is the least of the problems of a man who says that unless the person he is addressing is prepared to defend himself, he is in for "withering fire". Really, I can't take this seriously. I expressed some views, and I have better things to do than get attacked for it by someone whose rhetoric wouldn't cut it in a high school debate among 13 year old kids. Goodwine Hang in there. Checkout Braeburn Group. All views are welcomed, we don't attack people, insult them, or ridicule out of box thinking, and you only need to explain your point of view once. Most there are not option players who get giddy or hostile when making or losing money. It is a very professional group of smart folks. Excellent atmosphere to learn. I agree with you regarding a pullback. I still see $800 in Oct, but before end of year we could see a 10-15% correction . WS does not need a reason, it's called profit taking regardless how many iPhones are sold. It will be tougher to take the stock down because of the dividend.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 16:33:57 GMT -8
DELETED because I love lovemyipad.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:37:59 GMT -8
Ah, Sponge, mind the broad brush will you.
Braeburn vs. iPad's new forum:
Yep, yep, yep, yep (ridicule, right), actually I think Braeburn is even MORE into hardcore fundamentals analysis if I remember how Robert is.
Not exactly (some there ARE option players, aren't you? Please don't make me re-explain my trading/investing approach to counter the notion that options traders only deal with options), haven't been to Braeburn but fine I'll give you that, being happy about gains is fine, getting hostile about losses is idiotic.
That pullback theory works better because you explained it as profit taking. We saw it two days before the iPhone event.
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Post by BillH on Sept 18, 2012 16:38:38 GMT -8
Oh, that's just JD's rhetorical flourish. Btw, Sponge is so permabull it's almost ridiculous (some go further than that assessment). We equal-opportunity challenge ALL AAPL theories. It's irresponsible not to. The goal is to max gain with minimal pain, according to one's own investing/trading plan, risk tolerance and timeframe. Rhetorical flourish is the least of the problems of a man who says that unless the person he is addressing is prepared to defend himself, he is in for "withering fire". Really, I can't take this seriously. I expressed some views, and I have better things to do than get attacked for it by someone whose rhetoric wouldn't cut it in a high school debate among 13 year old kids. Well...,since we all know molten fire can't actually be delivered over the intertubes I'm thinking that JDS's challenge was considerably more intellectual than commonly associated with 13 year olds so I'm calling troll.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 16:39:26 GMT -8
DELETED because I love lovemyipad. Back atcha!
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 16:40:33 GMT -8
JD, this is a photo from the terminal store. I can imagine this location will be swamped on Friday.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 18, 2012 16:42:03 GMT -8
Im not a Mod but i did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night...
If you question someone's predictions, simply ask why they believe that. Maybe we can all learn something. Challenges aren't necessary. No one has to defend anything if they don't want to. Let's keep it civil.
We're still on our honeymoon after all :-)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:42:58 GMT -8
I will allow for the benefit of this forum that I've seen the Grand Central Apple Store (and Grand Central itself, of course), having had my memory jogged by that pic just now. Really, really nice store to go with the location.
Evening photo, MB? Would explain the orange cast from all the lights.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 16:43:19 GMT -8
Well, that was fun...I just deleted my very first user. No red tape. Just clicked a button.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:45:34 GMT -8
Says the CME trader/technician Chas. This being iPad's house, it WILL be kept friendly. Or iPad's wrath be unleashed.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 16:49:06 GMT -8
Im not a Mod but i did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night... If you question someone's predictions, simply ask why they believe that. Maybe we can all learn something. Challenges aren't necessary. No one has to defend anything if they don't want to. Let's keep it civil. We're still on our honeymoon after all :-) Okay, after this post, I'm going to stop being all gushy... But first: Love you, Chas!!
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Post by chasmac on Sept 18, 2012 16:51:16 GMT -8
JD, this is a photo from the terminal store. I can imagine this location will be swamped on Friday. How come you posted a pic of Freddie Couples in front of the 5th Ave. Store? Ha! Would love to see those stores some day. Holding steady with positions. Added a few Oct bear spreads today. Very uncertain about the short term.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:51:29 GMT -8
If Chas and MB can coexist, even after Bali Hai I guess, there's no excuse, really.
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Post by jcaron on Sept 18, 2012 16:53:19 GMT -8
You need to look at all the technicals in context. Yes, there are some possible trouble indicators, but there always are. Also, MACD-h on the daily looks like it's just getting started. That's a potential plus to weigh. I would prefer AAPL take its time and digest a little (which it did, very well actually) before next week, which as I've said before is when my AAPL evaluation really begins. Agreed on all counts :-)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2012 16:55:38 GMT -8
Waiting for a 10% pullback just ahead of earnings and guidance for the December is like playing Russian roulette with an automatic. Yeah, if I snag a 1-2% pullback I'll be happy. 1% - 2% from where? $700 (that would be $686), or even higher? You could have bought AAPL six days ago for <$660. Or were you waiting for a 1% - 2% pullback then? Forgive me if it appears that I am picking on you personally, I am not. I am picking on the notion of waiting for a pullback. Cost is important, but not near as important as your exit point. I'm just amazed how much energy people put into the price they pay, vs what they think they can sell it for. I work backwards from my anticipated exit point to a price that yields my desired ROI. If I can't make my desired ROI (in a specific time frame) then I don't buy. AAPL's price relative to what it is after a 1% - 2% pullback has nothing to do with my decisions. For the past 6 weeks I have been averaging 58+% ROI each week buying based on where AAPL will BE, not what I can get AAPL for (pullback price).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:56:13 GMT -8
Chas - ahem! What makes you nervous? (Man, Mercel does the Bull+ case much better than I can...I'm just a regular AAPL Bull...) The broken record should stop for a bit after this - I'm almost not even counting this week, unless there's some huge move one way or another. WS always wants to see the proof, and the proof is mostly to be delivered next week.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 16:56:34 GMT -8
You need to look at all the technicals in context. Yes, there are some possible trouble indicators, but there always are. Also, MACD-h on the daily looks like it's just getting started. That's a potential plus to weigh. I would prefer AAPL take its time and digest a little (which it did, very well actually) before next week, which as I've said before is when my AAPL evaluation really begins. Agreed on all counts :-) Oh, sure, show up RIGHT after I said I wasn't going to gush anymore!!! P.S. Posting my technicals read in Chart Stuff later tonight...
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Post by sponge on Sept 18, 2012 16:57:30 GMT -8
Rhetorical flourish is the least of the problems of a man who says that unless the person he is addressing is prepared to defend himself, he is in for "withering fire". Really, I can't take this seriously. I expressed some views, and I have better things to do than get attacked for it by someone whose rhetoric wouldn't cut it in a high school debate among 13 year old kids. Well...,since we all know molten fire can't actually be delivered over the intertubes I'm thinking that JDS's challenge was considerably more intellectual than commonly associated with 13 year olds so I'm calling troll. Many good people have left and don't post often here simply because bully like behavior is tolerated and everyone seems to defend each other. Goodwine is not a troll simply because he choses to express a view and not be bullied by JD. Sad Sad state of affairs. This forum will not last long with this type of behavior. It was not like this a year ago. I had 6000 posts because I enjoyed the debates. But a few of you just don't seem to get it. Mav, YOu are something else.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:58:24 GMT -8
In fairness Gregg, we all take our lumps too.
As for me, while everyone was having a party Monday, my account took a minor paper loss, because I unwound a losing hedge (not a bad move, so far) and repositioned. Grumbling all the while.
Now, I'm about where I normally am mkt-participation wise (~60-70% invested) and waiting for the next major clues and trends.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 17:00:17 GMT -8
I am indeed something else. A blue apple. Like a blue rose. (/if anyone gets this I'll be REALLY surprised)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 17:03:33 GMT -8
Drew Bear?! Who's next...Fal?!
MACE?!
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 18, 2012 17:10:09 GMT -8
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