Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2017 2:58:17 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2017 3:52:49 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 12, 2017 5:08:01 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2017 6:36:36 GMT -8
Is it just me, or does this morning seem to be going by REALLY slowly? ;-)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2017 8:46:24 GMT -8
I woke up much too early today, and can't blame it on visions of sugar plums at the Apple announcement. But, it did allow me to finish another chapter in the book I'm reading, "Panic on wall street" by Robert Sobel, about 13 US stock market panics thru 1987.
Sadly, I'm not loving the book too much (saying IBM dropped 50 points doesn't help me much, until seeing on the next page that it dropped from 350 so I have a frame of reference), and the pre-1929 panics don't bring too much insight to me since so many are of cornering the market or leveraging one railroad against another. Though there was a timeless remark from one of the panics around 1890, from a beggar to one of the hot shots of the time, something to the effect of "you know it's time to sell when the beggars and barbers are giving stock advice". That matches mid 1999 well, when everyone was voicing their picks. Or ~2007, when everyone was excited about housing, or in the refinance and loan business.
But "The Kennedy Slide: 1962" to me rings close enough to many of the corrections we have seen, especially the flash crash.
"A Zurich banker said "The United States is facing a psychological rather than an economic crisis."
The SEC concluded "the history of the May 28 market break reveals that a complex interaction of causes and effects-including rational and emotional motivations as well as a variety of mechanisms and pressures - may suddenly create a downward spiral of great velocity and force. This, in turn, may change the impact of various normal market mechanisms, and thus temporarily impair the market's fair and orderly character" ... The committee, in the end, appeared to dismiss the crash as a unique, isolated event, of a nonrecurrent nature."
After a few points Sorbel wrote "Apparently the financial panic is a thing of the past. Seemingly the new mechanisms of a mature capitalist society have made them relics."
(in general, while many stocks lost a lot over a 5-8 day trading period at the end of May, many losing around a third in those days, it was a 27% slide peak to trough from Dec 1961 to the June bottom)
I thought this slide was a little interesting, as was Sorbel's general feeling of "this time it's different". While a lot has changed since some of these crashes and panics, a lot of the underlying human psychology remains the same. And so, it's interesting to read about some of these past times and what remains the same, even if some other things have changed.
Hey, look at the time. I think Tim and team is about ready to show off a few things to the world!
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 8:51:01 GMT -8
I was under the impression that we'd be higher today before the event like we actually were in pre-market. OTOH, as Since84 said, tempered expectations leave room to run. Now, if THAT actually happens AFTER the event, it would be historic for AAPL. Most people are pretty much sure of a major sell-off after the news. Let's see
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coma
Member
Posts: 523
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Post by coma on Sept 12, 2017 8:54:39 GMT -8
Tighten your seat belts folks . . .
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2017 8:56:44 GMT -8
OTOH, as Since84 said, tempered expectations leave room to run. Now, if THAT actually happens AFTER the event, it would be historic for AAPL. Most people are pretty much sure of a major sell-off after the news. There's always the "down initially and up the next day" move, once the info is digested. I'd be fine seeing that, even if it is a bit of a roller coaster.
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Post by macster on Sept 12, 2017 8:57:58 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2017 9:06:38 GMT -8
Nothing on the Apple Events app on my Apple TV. Am I doing something wrong?
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2017 9:16:00 GMT -8
Yes - I'm watching it from my Apple TV
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Post by tuffett on Sept 12, 2017 9:27:27 GMT -8
If this is a two hour event, they're not leaving much time for two new iPhone models, one of them the most hyped of all time...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 12, 2017 9:27:39 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 9:37:17 GMT -8
So far so good...
Watch cellular demo was amazing!
163.32
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 12, 2017 9:39:22 GMT -8
A pop on Apple Watch, who would've guessed...
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 9:42:30 GMT -8
Will we break the 164.94 ATH today when the iPhone X is being revealed?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2017 9:44:50 GMT -8
And it's 64 here in North Lake Tahoe too.
Nice paddle board phone call.
I'm seeing a Tahoe theme. I guess I haven't been paying attention to what this year's OS X codename is.
Woz is getting a lot of audience shots. He'll be up here talking at SNC in a couple weeks....but it looks like it's sold out now.
It does seem like Apple is putting a bit too much money into some of it's stores. Those major places have to be pricey, just like it's new campus! I'm hoping that the high end town squares makes sense for those with the full numbers, and is not just something done because Apple has so much money right now.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 9:48:59 GMT -8
Sorry for judging but the way Eddy Cue walks makes him look like a slob.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 12, 2017 9:50:59 GMT -8
Glad the stock is going up .... I have a bunch of Apple purchases to make : )
Kinda feels like Christmas ....
Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2017 9:57:14 GMT -8
So I guess we still need the phone for the watch, right?
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Post by carbonate24 on Sept 12, 2017 10:04:06 GMT -8
So I guess we still need the phone for the watch, right? Is it me, or does Phil S. seem to be rushing through the iPhone 8 presentation? Saving time for 'one more thing'?
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 10:18:45 GMT -8
Showtime!
One more thing... iPhone X
163.50
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Sept 12, 2017 10:18:47 GMT -8
Uh oh. What now?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2017 10:19:28 GMT -8
So I guess we still need the phone for the watch, right? Is it me, or does Phil S. seem to be rushing through the iPhone 8 presentation? Saving time for 'one more thing'? YES!
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 12, 2017 10:26:35 GMT -8
Getting a little "sell the news"
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2017 10:27:47 GMT -8
We are 1.5 hours into it and still nothing - we're up to iPad
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 10:32:46 GMT -8
FaceID seems quite advanced and fool-proof according to the demo.
But I hope we don't see FaceID-gate in the future.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2017 10:40:45 GMT -8
I know they all want to get on stage (except Jony) but this back and forth shit is wearing on me with the presenters.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 12, 2017 10:41:18 GMT -8
uh ohh, under 160.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 12, 2017 10:47:38 GMT -8
What they did with the 8 + X announcement is very risky IMO.
I have a 6s and was planning to upgrade. But the iPhone 8 seems like a meh update. And the X seems cool, but untested (FaceID) and expensive.
So now I think I might wait to upgrade until I can test out the FaceID. iPhone 8 doesn't seem worth it.
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