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Post by mace on Apr 12, 2013 13:11:32 GMT -5
Is the SPY slowly getting rising wedge-ish? In the meantime trying to stay relatively careful as least as far as not committing too much cash to downside bets. Uptrend still there. Usually, the uptrend will persist even when many bearish signs appear and the early bears would be slaughtered. Early bears gave up and swap to bulls, they got slaughtered again as late bulls. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 13:39:47 GMT -5
Is it time to be a late bull?
$64,000 question.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 14, 2013 22:38:59 GMT -5
I'm watching the crash in precious metals futures...
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 14, 2013 22:49:11 GMT -5
Is the SPY slowly getting rising wedge-ish? In the meantime trying to stay relatively careful as least as far as not committing too much cash to downside bets. Uptrend still there. Usually, the uptrend will persist even when many bearish signs appear and the early bears would be slaughtered. Early bears gave up and swap to bulls, they got slaughtered again as late bulls. Yes, to Mav re: rising wedgie. And yes, to Mace re: topping psychology. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 14, 2013 23:27:05 GMT -5
I'm short...  GOOG DAILY CHART:  GOOG WEEKLY CHART:  |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 14, 2013 23:48:45 GMT -5
I will soon buy all in weekly puts and blame you if it goes wrong.  |
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Post by Mav on Apr 14, 2013 23:49:32 GMT -5
I'm watching the crash in precious metals futures... What's with that anyway? Mostly technicals-driven? |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 14, 2013 23:50:19 GMT -5
LOL, Mav!!! I have:
GOOG JAN'14 700/650 bear put spreads
GOOG SEP'13 770/750 bear put spreads
GOOG SEP'13 730/710 bear put spreads
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 14, 2013 23:51:40 GMT -5
I'm watching the crash in precious metals futures... What's with that anyway? Mostly technicals-driven? "Deflationary" trading activity across the board. Margin liquidations add fuel to the fire. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 15, 2013 0:15:10 GMT -5
So this is a matter of being world economic worries (slowing/negative growth, fears of deflation) overriding the need to run to "safe haven" assets, possibly because precious metals are perceived as overpriced at these levels?
...huh? Isn't QE Worldwide and everything else going on, whether it works or doesn't, NOT exactly gonna have deflationary effects?
Don't think I've heard the "deflation trade" phrase before, so I'm just seeing if I'm kinda understanding it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 15, 2013 0:22:00 GMT -5
Re: GOOG and that 556-774 upwave. Well hey! Fibonacci is magic! Also, near-ridiculous MM symmetry when you look at the 636-844 move.
I think you're onto something, but GOOG does have a nearby chance to regain composure with that "trendline" on the daily with the 636/695/768 points of reference. Maybe I'll look into a short at around 788 if the signs look right.
Just out of curiosity, at about what price did you initiate the trade?
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 15, 2013 0:40:40 GMT -5
So this is a matter of being world economic worries (slowing/negative growth, fears of deflation) overriding the need to run to "safe haven" assets, ... ...huh? Isn't QE Worldwide and everything else going on, whether it works or doesn't, NOT exactly gonna have deflationary effects? YES, on the first snip. I'm thinking it's "fear" that QE isn't working. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 15, 2013 0:45:20 GMT -5
Re: GOOG and that 556-774 upwave. Well hey! Fibonacci is magic! Also, near-ridiculous MM symmetry when you look at the 636-844 move. I think you're onto something, but GOOG does have a nearby chance to regain composure with that "trendline" on the daily with the 636/695/768 points of reference. Maybe I'll look into a short at around 788 if the signs look right. Just out of curiosity, at about what price did you initiate the trade? These triggered around 790-ish. I had limit orders approximating spread prices around the gap fill and daily EMA-8-ish, expecting a failed retest of the daily EMA-13. Unless price can decisively take back the daily SMA-50, it's going down, down, down. Remember when this happened to AAPL? The charts are veeeery similar. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 15, 2013 0:56:44 GMT -5
Actually, you could say the chart is "better" for GOOG (ATH differential) AND worse (parabolic move) when compared to AAPL. It's interesting that way.
May try a BPS if timing and price action allows.
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Post by Mav on Apr 15, 2013 14:31:23 GMT -5
GOOG still too relatively strong for me to try a follow-on trade.
But in the words of Keanu: Whoa.. I mean, my SPY butterflies actually have a tiny chance now? Really?
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Post by Mav on Apr 16, 2013 15:41:32 GMT -5
Was that a snapback rally or something?
Quite the whipsaw day. It's like everyone bets on short-term bull when the markets go down a certain amount. Choppy as heck.
Inflection point for the SPX as far as the Nov 12-now intermediate trend?
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Post by Mav on Apr 17, 2013 12:24:51 GMT -5
GOOG reports tomorrow. Hmm.
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Post by Mav on Apr 17, 2013 15:55:24 GMT -5
Unsatisfying but still green trade with my SPY butterflies. I once thought they were completely done for.
So really, I should be friggin' thrilled!
But, two things: First, I missed SPY 154.25. Second, my idiot online brokerage gain/loss tracker may have been...optimistic? Eh, green is green - I'll take 25% or whatever it ended up being (very small bet), although I could easily have spent a hundred or so bucks on antacids seeing the SPX almost hit 1600.
Meanwhile, the QQQ hedge is still on. May 70/67, waiting for something to happen.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 17, 2013 17:47:00 GMT -5
Mav, green is green FOR SURE! Way to go!  |
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Post by Mav on Apr 17, 2013 18:04:38 GMT -5
Congrats on GOOG so far. May try a BPS bet for earnings.
These markets are just so damn whippy right now.
So, is that correction a bit more likely btw? You know which one. ;D
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