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Post by rickag on Mar 2, 2013 10:34:11 GMT -8
Maybe not based on P/E, but when AAPL was trading at ~ $14.95 Apple's cash and cash equivents covered ~ $12.95 per share leaving the company valued @ about $2 per share. Back in the days when it was rumored Apple may be bought out by Sony or Sun Microsystems.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 10:35:11 GMT -8
BTW, please post the proof to your final statement in the above quote if you have it. I am willing to reconsider my opinion if some actual data backs up that statement. Darn it, I wasn't going to post anymore on this, but I just have to say this... And again, no disrespect intended here... I just want to share my point of view, which is this: I have NO desire to convince anyone of the validity of TA. No desire to write an article, teach a class, write a book, or start a paid subscription service. No desire to defend or prove anything to anyone. Certainly not to gather and present data for no benefit whatsoever to myself -- an epic waste of my time. I don't care whether or not you change your opinion. Keep it. Embrace it. It's all yours. Enjoy. I wish you great success. The ONLY reason I babble so much about TA is because I love it. I love charts, and I love to talk shop informally with others who share my interests. I love my trading and TA buds and our commitment to learning new things and kicking the tires and testing stuff out for ourselves and sharing lessons learned. Now, I am off to my TA playground where I can revel in squiggly line masterpieces...
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Post by wheeles on Mar 2, 2013 10:54:01 GMT -8
It just goes to show that you should be careful who you listen to here. <snip> I'm going to urge you to take a look in the technicals section and see what's going on there. Posters like iPad, Mav, Mace and wheeles all do a pretty damn good job of analyzing what is going on. Don't listen to me. I don't have a bloody clue what's going on to which my regular humbling is a testament.
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Post by jcaron on Mar 2, 2013 10:59:38 GMT -8
LS, please share the mechanism by which you trade to minimize risk. Obviously FA has proven to be an unreliable indicator in itself. PE is about the most useless metric published and those that continually scream that apple's PE is so low while amazon is too high are missing the bigger picture. For the record I look at TA and do my best to use the information it provides to my advantage, I also understand FA. I also understand no method is infallible. The reality is, appledoc may have summarized it best. Buy when sentiment is positive, sell (or better yet short) when negative. When one uses TA in its most simplistic terms and you trade by LEVELS, it has proven to be it can be very effective at minimizing losses and adding to gains. I have no magic answers on this topic. My original post was simply to suggest that people who are considering plunging into TA-based trading to take a closer look. Instead of just accepting the accepted doctrine. But I don't feel like making the discourse around here worse by questioning this any more. No one wants to hear it. BTW, please post the proof to your final statement in the above quote if you have it. I am willing to reconsider my opinion if some actual data backs up that statement. proof? As in you want my trading history? No can do but I will tell you this. I am a fan of T3Live and Scott Redler. I recall (and this is when I followed TA but was reluctant to act on it becuase apple had such good fundamentals) Scott called to sell apple when it broke through a level of 683 which he had identified days in advance. At that point I was thinking, I have already lost X why lock in the loss. Like many other I was relying on apple's fundamentals to value the stock fairly. Well we all know how that went dont we. There was another call that apple would see 530. NO WAY I said to myself, FA wont allow that. Guess what? I dont know what proof you need, but that is all the proof I need. Add to that the calls for RIMM to actually go UP from $8 or what ever it was, I am convinced. I have all the proof I need. Latest calls (made last week) are for 395. Will it come to fruition? I don't know, but I wont bet against it. I will wait for confirmation (as in a strong break above 455) before I get long apple again. I'm with ipad really. No one individual convinced me and I am sure I can't convince you, nor will I try. I performed my own due diligence I expect others to do theirs. Im not trying to be curt here, I am simply saying people need to look a little closer than a 10,000 foot flyby allows for. Best of luck LS, I truly hope well all get rich.
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Post by wheeles on Mar 2, 2013 11:00:03 GMT -8
To me there is a world of difference between academic research on TA and actually doing what I do every day. To me, it's like reading studies about sex versus having sex. After the last few weeks I feel like giving up on TA and just stick to having sex. At least when you get boned doing the latter it's enjoyable.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 2, 2013 11:05:16 GMT -8
It just goes to show that you should be careful who you listen to here. <snip> I'm going to urge you to take a look in the technicals section and see what's going on there. Posters like iPad, Mav, Mace and wheeles all do a pretty damn good job of analyzing what is going on. Don't listen to me. I don't have a bloody clue what's going on to which my regular humbling is a testament. Don't sell yourself short. We can't be right 100% of the time.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 11:15:25 GMT -8
To me there is a world of difference between academic research on TA and actually doing what I do every day. To me, it's like reading studies about sex versus having sex. After the last few weeks I feel like giving up on TA and just stick to having sex. At least when you get boned doing the latter it's enjoyable. ROFLMAO!!! I love ya, Birdie!!! And sorry, but I'm with doc -- IMHO, brilliance and perfection are not the same thing. You have the former, and no one has the latter.
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icam
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Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Mar 2, 2013 12:07:14 GMT -8
icam, I will continue regular, dollar-cost averaging into long-term investments -- which is how I have always invested. But now that I've learned a modicum of TA (none of which I knew prior to March 2011), at this time, preserving capital -- locking in existing broad market equity profits -- fits my risk management profile and financial objectives. I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red iPad - Same here on the regular dollar-cost averaging into long-term investments - which is what I've always done as well. Same here as we'll on preserving capital and locking in broad market profits fitting my risk management profile and financial objectives. I too have learned the hard way, I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses. While I don't know where the top of the market will be, my North Star and other indicators tell me that we are closer to a market top than we are the bottom. The difference between our tactics and decision making I suspect is different though. Your much more technically adept than me, and technicals are much more a part of your decision process. I'm trying to add some of this perspective and tools to my decision making process to help optimize my entries and exits and profits. My approach historically has been to invest from a macro perspective (economic/business cycles, markets relative positioning, political climate, ect.) first, and then move directionally towards micro environments secondly using financial analysis. I won't abandon these, but will augment them with TA in an attempt to maximize profits.
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Post by wheeles on Mar 2, 2013 13:26:56 GMT -8
I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red Lovepad, not picking on you, but on the sentiment expressed by yourself and others. My question is this: How exactly do you do that? By taking on any position, your money is at risk. Period. How do you know that a pullback is a pullback and not the start of something bigger? At what point do you exit, or perhaps even, reverse? And, by extension, how do you know that a bounce following a protracted move down is merely a bounce, and not the start of a bigger recovery? To my mind this is the one, and only, question worth a damn. I've spent many years looking at charts and I still could not answer this question with any degree of certainty. Sure, I could point to features on a chart that might indicate a turning point, but ultimately it's still, at best, an educated guess. In the end, all you really can do is have a system for getting in and out of positions, and have the discipline to obey that system at all times, as you never really know when the signal to get in, out, or reverse is the one that allows you to make the big gains and avoid the big losses.
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icam
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Post by icam on Mar 2, 2013 14:37:54 GMT -8
I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red Lovepad, not picking on you, but on the sentiment expressed by yourself and others. My question is this: How exactly do you do that? By taking on any position, your money is at risk. Period. How do you know that a pullback is a pullback and not the start of something bigger? At what point do you exit, or perhaps even, reverse? And, by extension, how do you know that a bounce following a protracted move down is merely a bounce, and not the start of a bigger recovery? To my mind this is the one, and only, question worth a damn. I've spent many years looking at charts and I still could not answer this question with any degree of certainty. Sure, I could point to features on a chart that might indicate a turning point, but ultimately it's still, at best, an educated guess. In the end, all you really can do is have a system for getting in and out of positions, and have the discipline to obey that system at all times, as you never really know when the signal to get in, out, or reverse is the one that allows you to make the big gains and avoid the big losses. Wheels - For me that statement is a theoretical goal. It's not to be taken literally. I've had plenty of losses over the years. I'm sure ill have plenty more in the future. I've also been fortunate to have many more gains. One of my lessons learned is that had I cut my losing positions sooner, or picked better entry points, my portfolio would have performed even. So, I'm trying to improve my entries and exits by learning some TA.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 2, 2013 15:11:58 GMT -8
So no one gets too off track, I believe the basic sentiment behind Red's comment some months ago was almost Lethal Weapon-esque ("I'm too old for this ****") So don't over analyze Red's offhand comment. If you want a little gain and not much pain, bet conservative. Risk/reward is always true in the long run.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2013 15:51:02 GMT -8
I don't like TA, but I agree that TA does have a bearing on stock price movement, especially in the short term, and extra especially within a company news vacuum.
My opinion is that TA is mostly a self fulfilling prophecy that the majority of day traders believe in, that High frequency trading machines have been programmed to magnify/influence, and therefore is highly relevant to stock price movement in the short term.
For instance using whatever popular TA theories are most prevalent will give all TA traders the same magical meaningless numbers for a share price, and when these meaningless numbers are breached or bounced off, TA traders react by buying/selling in a massive fashion which causes reinforcement of the meaningless numbers.
And of course if you are a large institution with massive resources, you can use these meaningless numbers, and TA traders belief in them, to push the stock whatever way benefits you the most. A carefully timed series of large trades near one of the meaningless numbers will cause a massive cascade affect as thousands of day traders follow your lead as the meaningless number is breached or bounced off. I'm not saying there is a evil overlord sitting at a desk stroking a white cat doing this, I'm saying there are algorithms inside black boxes that do this.
I think this applies to every large, liquid stock, not just Apple.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2013 16:19:30 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Mar 2, 2013 16:19:53 GMT -8
Wheels - For me that statement is a theoretical goal. It's not to be taken literally. I've had plenty of losses over the years. I'm sure ill have plenty more in the future. I've also been fortunate to have many more gains. One of my lessons learned is that had I cut my losing positions sooner, or picked better entry points, my portfolio would have performed even. So, I'm trying to improve my entries and exits by learning some TA. It's a theoretical goal for all but those who buy and never sell. I've been trying to do it for years. What it comes down to is having a system, but I don't think I've ever read of someone on AFB actually employing a rigid system based purely on technicals that generates buy and sell signals that they take regardless of the prevailing sentiment. That's the only way you'll get your better entries and exits, but you'll also get a few signals that don't pan out, too.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Mar 2, 2013 16:26:13 GMT -8
I don't like TA, but I agree that TA does have a bearing on stock price movement, especially in the short term, and extra especially within a company news vacuum. My opinion is that TA is mostly a self fulfilling prophecy that the majority of day traders believe in, that High frequency trading machines have been programmed to magnify/influence, and therefore is highly relevant to stock price movement in the short term. For instance using whatever popular TA theories are most prevalent will give all TA traders the same magical meaningless numbers for a share price, and when these meaningless numbers are breached or bounced off, TA traders react by buying/selling in a massive fashion which causes reinforcement of the meaningless numbers. And of course if you are a large institution with massive resources, you can use these meaningless numbers, and TA traders belief in them, to push the stock whatever way benefits you the most. A carefully timed series of large trades near one of the meaningless numbers will cause a massive cascade affect as thousands of day traders follow your lead as the meaningless number is breached or bounced off. I'm not saying there is a evil overlord sitting at a desk stroking a white cat doing this, I'm saying there are algorithms inside black boxes that do this. I think this applies to every large, liquid stock, not just Apple. Very well put and I agree. Someone with billions who knows how millions are going to respond at any certain point could make billions. That being said I guess if one understands all of TA the way some seem to there is money to be made. For those TA dummies like me I see it as a way to lose money so It seems better for me to stick to investing rather than trading.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 2, 2013 16:37:09 GMT -8
DEAR GOD PRECIPITOUS DROP IN IMAC DEMAND Er...wow! Let's keep an eye out for Made in USA iMacs, people!
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 16:52:57 GMT -8
I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red Lovepad, not picking on you, but on the sentiment expressed by yourself and others. My question is this: How exactly do you do that? By taking on any position, your money is at risk. Period. How do you know that a pullback is a pullback and not the start of something bigger? Birdie, I never know for sure, and my WAGs are wrong all the time. But the quote reminds me: try to quit while you're ahead, don't be too stubborn or too greedy, and don't watch emerald green turn tomato red. I never know for sure what the market will do; I only know what I will aim to do at certain price/profit/loss levels. I try to think of it as risk management for whatever timeframe and investment or trading objective. My other fav quote from Sir Red: "Plan the trade and trade the plan." That said, discipline is a bloody bugger, and the machines are far better at it than we mere mortals.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 2, 2013 17:54:36 GMT -8
So no one gets too off track, I believe the basic sentiment behind Red's comment some months ago was almost Lethal Weapon-esque ("I'm too old for this ****") So don't over analyze Red's offhand comment. If you want a little gain and not much pain, bet conservative. Risk/reward is always true in the long run. Mav is on the right track. I use that phrase to stay disciplined...to sell at my target price, to hedge intelligently, to duck and cover when appropriate. I've had a rough five months too...and I've certainly incurred some of the losses...I'm still learning how to be disciplined in the face of potential glory.......
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 2, 2013 18:35:34 GMT -8
Just for the record, I was the one who has backed off after the recent dust-up, out of deference to the moderator/proprietor, while others apparently continue to stir the pot. I'd ceased arguing for the sake of the board, not as some capitulation. I again challenge anyone here to post your YoY trades in real-time and see if you can beat the Poor Man's Algo based on Travis Lewis's pain ranges. Put up or shut up. OTOH, the notion that my daily/weekly pain range is meant as some precise trading advice is false. The idea that pain theory as I believe and portray it ignores sentiment, news, or other factors (like TA does) is also false, as I have said here a million times. I do, however, stand by my narrower pain range as a guide, albeit a moving one (luckily, none of those moving averages ever do that) of where AAPL will not close when there are substantial (net) option walls. I am also very eager to see that alternative theory that has 100% weekly accuracy. With that said, I am checking out of AFB. This isn't some butthurt, take my ball and go home thing. I'd be happy to tell some of the people here what bozos they are in colorful language, in perpetuity, as my reputation has well-established. Alas, I have too much respect and affection for Lovemyipad to stay, knowing that sooner or later, regardless of my best intentions, human nature will prevail. I might have my flaws, but self-unawareness is not one of them. The truth is, Lovemyipad is too nice of a person to be a moderator, which is why she hates it. And seeing her ready to quit made me feel sick. So I shall self-moderate. I'd also add that it's bad enough I have to fight Apple and AAPL FUD and nonsense out in the rest of the non-AFB world. But this place is no longer a refuge from that, Lovemyipad's laudable efforts notwithstanding. As if it were "groupthink" to have a board of a few people not parroting the same bearish FUD I can read everywhere else! (classic metaphor for Mac users). The good news is, I'll be launching a financial/tech blog one of these days soon. This is a win-win, as those interested in my commentary can visit, and those who are not interested will never have to get the vapors reading my comments ever again. Plus, I'll have the benefit of nobody ever disagreeing with me, because there will be no comments section, and my dog will answer all e-mail. Regardless of any disagreements I've had with others here, if you are long AAPL common - or even selling calls against it - I wish you all the best, and hope that someday the market comes to its senses and values the best company on earth accordingly, and gives us the returns rational, patient, fundie investors deserve. I've learned a lot from many of you, and consider many of you friends. And with that, I bid you all adieu.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Mar 2, 2013 19:29:30 GMT -8
May your blog be followed by many and make you some decent side money too. Y'know, to cover those puts you sell....or at least those new minis on the way.
See ya, JD.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 2, 2013 19:31:39 GMT -8
So no one gets too off track, I believe the basic sentiment behind Red's comment some months ago was almost Lethal Weapon-esque ("I'm too old for this ****") So don't over analyze Red's offhand comment. If you want a little gain and not much pain, bet conservative. Risk/reward is always true in the long run. Mav is on the right track. I use that phrase to stay disciplined...to sell at my target price, to hedge intelligently, to duck and cover when appropriate. I've had a rough five months too...and I've certainly incurred some of the losses...I'm still learning how to be disciplined in the face of potential glory....... Did I hear the call to PREPARE FOR GLORY?!? 300!(/major troll)
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icam
Member
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Post by icam on Mar 2, 2013 19:58:08 GMT -8
Wheels - For me that statement is a theoretical goal. It's not to be taken literally. I've had plenty of losses over the years. I'm sure ill have plenty more in the future. I've also been fortunate to have many more gains. One of my lessons learned is that had I cut my losing positions sooner, or picked better entry points, my portfolio would have performed even. So, I'm trying to improve my entries and exits by learning some TA. It's a theoretical goal for all but those who buy and never sell. I've been trying to do it for years. What it comes down to is having a system, but I don't think I've ever read of someone on AFB actually employing a rigid system based purely on technicals that generates buy and sell signals that they take regardless of the prevailing sentiment. That's the only way you'll get your better entries and exits, but you'll also get a few signals that don't pan out, too. All I know for sure is that I am not perfect and never will be, and that I will improve myself a little bit each day. I don't believe the perfect stock trading system exists.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 2, 2013 20:00:55 GMT -8
And whoever tells you one does is a complete liar. Of course you already knew that.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Mar 2, 2013 20:03:30 GMT -8
Just for the record, I was the one who has backed off after the recent dust-up, out of deference to the moderator/proprietor, while others apparently continue to stir the pot. I'd ceased arguing for the sake of the board, not as some capitulation. I again challenge anyone here to post your YoY trades in real-time and see if you can beat the Poor Man's Algo based on Travis Lewis's pain ranges. Put up or shut up. OTOH, the notion that my daily/weekly pain range is meant as some precise trading advice is false. The idea that pain theory as I believe and portray it ignores sentiment, news, or other factors (like TA does) is also false, as I have said here a million times. I do, however, stand by my narrower pain range as a guide, albeit a moving one (luckily, none of those moving averages ever do that) of where AAPL will not close when there are substantial (net) option walls. I am also very eager to see that alternative theory that has 100% weekly accuracy. With that said, I am checking out of AFB. This isn't some butthurt, take my ball and go home thing. I'd be happy to tell some of the people here what bozos they are in colorful language, in perpetuity, as my reputation has well-established. Alas, I have too much respect and affection for Lovemyipad to stay, knowing that sooner or later, regardless of my best intentions, human nature will prevail. I might have my flaws, but self-unawareness is not one of them. The truth is, Lovemyipad is too nice of a person to be a moderator, which is why she hates it. And seeing her ready to quit made me feel sick. So I shall self-moderate. I'd also add that it's bad enough I have to fight Apple and AAPL FUD and nonsense out in the rest of the non-AFB world. But this place is no longer a refuge from that, Lovemyipad's laudable efforts notwithstanding. As if it were "groupthink" to have a board of a few people not parroting the same bearish FUD I can read everywhere else! (classic metaphor for Mac users). The good news is, I'll be launching a financial/tech blog one of these days soon. This is a win-win, as those interested in my commentary can visit, and those who are not interested will never have to get the vapors reading my comments ever again. Plus, I'll have the benefit of nobody ever disagreeing with me, because there will be no comments section, and my dog will answer all e-mail. Regardless of any disagreements I've had with others here, if you are long AAPL common - or even selling calls against it - I wish you all the best, and hope that someday the market comes to its senses and values the best company on earth accordingly, and gives us the returns rational, patient, fundie investors deserve. I've learned a lot from many of you, and consider many of you friends. And with that, I bid you all adieu. Make sure to come back here and post the info for your blog. Good luck.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
Member is Online
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Post by bud777 on Mar 2, 2013 21:19:29 GMT -8
I just finished reading "Dark Pools: The rise of machine traders and the rigging of the U.S. stock market" by Patterson. I recommend it to anyone who is still operating (Apple All Time High) with classic models of the market based on human psychology. While most of the early automation had to do with getting in front of trades to harvest a few pennies per trade as a middleman, the more recent developments are really (Apple All Time High) more interesting. Apparently, algorithms are scanning a vast number of online (Apple All Time High ) articles and feeding this into genetic algorithms that blindly decide to buy and sell. The algorithms evolve so even those using them do not know how they decide what to listen to. It may be that the discourse on this board is influencing these algorithms as you read this (Apple All Time High)
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 2, 2013 21:45:54 GMT -8
...It may be that the discourse on this board is influencing these algorithms as you read this (Apple All Time High) Thanks, bud777, this is the first AFB post in a long while that has made me smile. "Dark Pools" sounds interesting.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 3, 2013 5:39:36 GMT -8
Just to defend myself, we were never talking about Travis's Poorman Algo which says buy Friday on close and sell Wednesday on close. I don't dispute that being a good way to trade, and I never have.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 3, 2013 5:49:30 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Mar 3, 2013 6:06:15 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Mar 3, 2013 7:42:47 GMT -8
Just to defend myself, we were never talking about Travis's Poorman Algo which says buy Friday on close and sell Wednesday on close. I don't dispute that being a good way to trade, and I never have. Doc. Are you the Doc that put an article on Seeking alpha today re Apple?
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