aapl
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Post by aapl on Mar 5, 2024 3:01:06 GMT -8
This is getting like the movie Ground Hog Day...more red for AAPL in the premarkets: $172.43 -$2.67 (-1.52%)
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 5, 2024 3:52:37 GMT -8
Does anyone care to guess where the next support area will be? I’m guess it’s in the $155 region.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 186
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Post by aapl on Mar 5, 2024 6:56:46 GMT -8
Does anyone care to guess where the next support area will be? I’m guess it’s in the $155 region. October lows were 165-166... Attachments:
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Post by zebrum on Mar 5, 2024 7:31:04 GMT -8
if you are thinking of buying this discount its probably a good idea to do it soon because sentiment can change very fast
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 5, 2024 7:46:07 GMT -8
if you are thinking of buying this discount its probably a good idea to do it soon because sentiment can change very fast I don't know how much urgency there is to it. I'd be taking on more risk to buy even more, and don't need to try to time it perfectly, so ideally I'd rather wait until the knife comes fully to a stop. BUT, I don't know I've ever seen the RSI at 23 for AAPL!!! schrts.co/gXmqRnPSThe RSI is a pretty good gauge of overbought/oversold, but it doesn't necessarily mean the bottom or top. It's basically a "length of time of acceleration" gauge, and looking at the 3 year history you can see times where the stock changed direction when the RSI was at an extreme, but there are other times where the stock movement has just slowed down for a while, but still overall continued on in the upwards or downwards direction.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 5, 2024 8:13:52 GMT -8
I'm glad to hear you look long term. AAPL isn't the only choice out there, and while it has been a very lucrative investment over the past couple decades, that doesn't make it the only good investment, in the past or looking forward. I plan to switch over some of my investments, but I'd really rather do it at a time that AAPL feels overpriced, vs fairly valued or even underpriced. But even in retrospect there have been very few times that AAPL has seemed overvalued over the past 26 years that I have owned it. It would be appreciated if you would share some of your ideas on other alternative stocks. I see NVIDIA, ARM and Intel. Intel is in a position to play catch-up as it unwinds some of its previous mistakes. Thankfully, I'm holding some small positions in these three right now. Thanks Dave for asking this last week. Like I put in my "conversation starter ideas" in my footer, it seems like this is something we should talk about at least once in a while. Especially since personally I really don't know. I'm not sitting here feeling that Nvidia (or any other company) is a better investment going forward. It might be, and it sure has done better recently. And that would make it a whole lot easier, since if I felt that Intel was going to knock the socks off of Apple for investment performance (I don't), then I'd make the change. Instead I have 2 main reasons to switch things up. The first is that I am borrowing a decently large amount, which makes a lot of sense when the interest rate is near zero and your investments are doing well. But it is a liability that can put you in a bad spot, and the interest adds up quickly at 6.6%. The other is that I've looked back and seen many companies that did great do not so great for a while, and sometimes never recover. Sometimes it is hard to see these things coming, but I don't want to be blindsided. No company excels or lasts forever. Being very concentrated in AAPL has paid off immensely over the past decades, even if there have been some down times. But what's the probability of continuing to hit snake eyes again and again, over any really long term period? If nothing else, the lawyers and regulators are seeing dollar signs in the air, and that will create at least a little drag. I'd love it if there were some company out there that I felt relatively confident would outperform AAPL, in the 5 or 10 year timeframe. But I just don't know any of them well enough. At least with AAPL I can somewhat see the positives and negatives, while have a feeling of things being overbought or oversold, so I can add to my positions when near that low, and theoretically sell a bit when near that high. As far as moving away from AAPL, for now since I don't really have other companies I want to invest a lot in, I'd probably just buy the market by buying an index. The 10% annualized for the trailing 10 years on the S&P is more than enough. But I could also see trying to play that just a little by following the method that Fisher Investments uses, of slightly overweighting one sector and underweighting another, aiming to beat the market by a little bit while also only having the risk of underperforming by a little bit if things go the opposite way than you are expecting. Last week Firestorm posted: With appl being basically flat over the last 2 years it's been a bit frustrating... Care to share what you're investing in now? I am not young enough to be able to determine what might be the next great company, so I'm investing in some old standbys: MSFT, COST, and BRK/B, with a few others. I'm not looking to hit a home run, just stay reasonably stable. I made a lot of money with TSLA for a time, then lost it all and more, when Musk basically melted down. For me that's the mindset, that I wouldn't need homers, but maybe trying to beat the market a little with companies I feel are strong and have good earnings and momentum. What do other people think? If you were selling 10-30% of your AAPL today, or in the next year ideally at a better price point, why would you be doing it and what would you invest in? (EDIT: I don't plan to sell any AAPL while it is down, instead considering it when I feel it is fairly valued or overvalued. For the last 3 trading days the volume has been much higher than normal. Part of this is due to the pricing, but it seems like someone is making a big move, probably out of the stock, and putting some extra pressure on it. BlueHerring felt that buying pressure caused the price to drop while kicking up the available volume ("I'll buy 5M shares, at $2 under the current price), but I still have a hard time with that concept even if the conspiracy theory side of me could see a "I want to buy big. Start a bad rumor. A $2 drop gives us a $10M discount". Either way, volume is up for these last few days.)
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CdnPhoto
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Member is Online
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 5, 2024 9:05:25 GMT -8
if you are thinking of buying this discount its probably a good idea to do it soon because sentiment can change very fast I don't know how much urgency there is to it. I'd be taking on more risk to buy even more, and don't need to try to time it perfectly, so ideally I'd rather wait until the knife comes fully to a stop. BUT, I don't know I've ever seen the RSI at 23 for AAPL!!! schrts.co/gXmqRnPSThe RSI is a pretty good gauge of overbought/oversold, but it doesn't necessarily mean the bottom or top. It's basically a "length of time of acceleration" gauge, and looking at the 3 year history you can see times where the stock changed direction when the RSI was at an extreme, but there are other times where the stock movement has just slowed down for a while, but still overall continued on in the upwards or downwards direction. Picked up some this morning. Hoping it goes up from here. Saw the RSI and saw how low it was.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,125
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Post by Dave on Mar 5, 2024 9:15:37 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Mar 5, 2024 9:18:06 GMT -8
14 day RSI about as low as it goes. 7 day was just lower Feb 21. 2 big gaps down. Gaps like to be filled at some point. All the AI so called-stocks I track are down today and only 8 of the richest companies are up out of 35. But FED SPEAK is on the agenda and that always scares the market. Maybe the next move up comes when the fed decides to cut interest rates. If?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Mar 5, 2024 9:23:13 GMT -8
I'm not a big fan of Intel, but I have some synthetic stock in ASML. Intel has invested heavily in ASML's 2 nm lithography and might be able to leapfrog TSMC and Samsung with the next generation chips. I should say that I have the highest respect for Intel's chip making side, it is the Software and Research side that I find lacking, as well as the corporate culture.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 5, 2024 9:25:09 GMT -8
Seems unlikely that interest rates would change this time. The Fed moves things slowly, while making some minor word changes to signal their plans. I expect best case, they do that, signaling a potential change 1-2 meetings out. But even words that direction would be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. China iPhone worries are likely part of what is hurting AAPL today: Apple's iPhone sales in China plunge 24% as Huawei's popularity surges
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,125
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Post by Dave on Mar 5, 2024 9:34:00 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Mar 5, 2024 10:36:11 GMT -8
Out Now Fresh from The Oven Shiny and New.....
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,656
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 5, 2024 10:42:27 GMT -8
With all of the x.x.1 updates that have eventually come out, I prefer to wait days or weeks unless there is a bug that is plaguing me. But the last bug that fit that bill was with something like Mac OS 10.2, with SoftPC or VirtualPC not working...and needing it to print from stamps.com
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Post by aaplcrazie on Mar 5, 2024 11:28:48 GMT -8
4AAPL Ive 'had the Beta on one of my iPads for a while with no ill affects.
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Post by nwjade on Mar 5, 2024 11:38:44 GMT -8
It would be appreciated if you would share some of your ideas on other alternative stocks. I see NVIDIA, ARM and Intel. Intel is in a position to play catch-up as it unwinds some of its previous mistakes. Thankfully, I'm holding some small positions in these three right now. Thanks Dave for asking this last week. Like I put in my "conversation starter ideas" in my footer, it seems like this is something we should talk about at least once in a while. Especially since personally I really don't know. I'm not sitting here feeling that Nvidia (or any other company) is a better investment going forward. It might be, and it sure has done better recently. And that would make it a whole lot easier, since if I felt that Intel was going to knock the socks off of Apple for investment performance (I don't), then I'd make the change. Instead I have 2 main reasons to switch things up. The first is that I am borrowing a decently large amount, which makes a lot of sense when the interest rate is near zero and your investments are doing well. But it is a liability that can put you in a bad spot, and the interest adds up quickly at 6.6%. The other is that I've looked back and seen many companies that did great do not so great for a while, and sometimes never recover. Sometimes it is hard to see these things coming, but I don't want to be blindsided. No company excels or lasts forever. Being very concentrated in AAPL has paid off immensely over the past decades, even if there have been some down times. But what's the probability of continuing to hit snake eyes again and again, over any really long term period? If nothing else, the lawyers and regulators are seeing dollar signs in the air, and that will create at least a little drag. I'd love it if there were some company out there that I felt relatively confident would outperform AAPL, in the 5 or 10 year timeframe. But I just don't know any of them well enough. At least with AAPL I can somewhat see the positives and negatives, while have a feeling of things being overbought or oversold, so I can add to my positions when near that low, and theoretically sell a bit when near that high. As far as moving away from AAPL, for now since I don't really have other companies I want to invest a lot in, I'd probably just buy the market by buying an index. The 10% annualized for the trailing 10 years on the S&P is more than enough. But I could also see trying to play that just a little by following the method that Fisher Investments uses, of slightly overweighting one sector and underweighting another, aiming to beat the market by a little bit while also only having the risk of underperforming by a little bit if things go the opposite way than you are expecting. Last week Firestorm posted: I am not young enough to be able to determine what might be the next great company, so I'm investing in some old standbys: MSFT, COST, and BRK/B, with a few others. I'm not looking to hit a home run, just stay reasonably stable. I made a lot of money with TSLA for a time, then lost it all and more, when Musk basically melted down. For me that's the mindset, that I wouldn't need homers, but maybe trying to beat the market a little with companies I feel are strong and have good earnings and momentum. What do other people think? If you were selling 10-30% of your AAPL today, or in the next year ideally at a better price point, why would you be doing it and what would you invest in? (EDIT: I don't plan to sell any AAPL while it is down, instead considering it when I feel it is fairly valued or overvalued. For the last 3 trading days the volume has been much higher than normal. Part of this is due to the pricing, but it seems like someone is making a big move, probably out of the stock, and putting some extra pressure on it. BlueHerring felt that buying pressure caused the price to drop while kicking up the available volume ("I'll buy 5M shares, at $2 under the current price), but I still have a hard time with that concept even if the conspiracy theory side of me could see a "I want to buy big. Start a bad rumor. A $2 drop gives us a $10M discount". Either way, volume is up for these last few days.) Interesting that a lot of the things you've posted parallel my thoughts and experience over the years. We know Apple well and switching to another company(s) for better future performance is tough to do when talking about very large amounts of money. We're willing to ride the up's and down's because the long term trend has paid off big time. That said each person's situation evolves with time and in my case I really should diversify away from being fully invested in aapl because of my age but I haven't. Could switch to the qqq's or vgt for diversification and remain in tech with the qqq's having 8.9% and vgt having 20.2% holdings in aapl. They've both done a lot better over the last 1 and 2 year periods than aapl but aperture out to 5 year+ and there's no comparison between the tech indexes and aapl as an individual investment. Like you say the probability of continued success has to be weighed. At least for the short or longer? term sentiment is quite bearish with talk of China sales down, late to AI, EU fines/lawsuits , Justice Dept antitrust etc. Apple is doomed 3.0. For now time to hunker down for the nth time over the years. Lol on your comment mentioning margin 'liability that can put you in a bad spot' I swore it off for good dating back to the .com bubble era as it really bit me in the a$$.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 5, 2024 12:11:47 GMT -8
For alternative investments. The metal makers RIO and BHP are in the iron ore business. Once China starts building again, they will have some upside. PAAS is rarely much lower than 12 or 13, if you like silver. RIO has some Lithium as well although both iron ore and Lithium are abundant now.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 5, 2024 15:58:01 GMT -8
I'm not a big fan of Intel, but I have some synthetic stock in ASML. Intel has invested heavily in ASML's 2 nm lithography and might be able to leapfrog TSMC and Samsung with the next generation chips. I should say that I have the highest respect for Intel's chip making side, it is the Software and Research side that I find lacking, as well as the corporate culture. I have ASML as well.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 5, 2024 16:14:07 GMT -8
5 reasons why investors should stay bullish on Apple stock despite its recent sell-off, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives 1. "Current iPhone estimates for 2024 remain hittable with 2025 street estimates conservative." 2. "Pent up demand around an upgrade cycle could exceed 270 million iPhones heading into iPhone 16." 3. "Services remains rock solid with double digit growth and a key to the valuation support." 4. "AI is finally coming to Apple in the form of new App Store enhancements and built into iPhone 16 based on our work in the field." 5. "Apple has the strongest installed base of any company in the world with 2.2 billion iOS devices and the next phase of monetization is on the horizon."
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 5, 2024 17:35:08 GMT -8
5 reasons why investors should stay bullish on Apple stock despite its recent sell-off, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives 1. "Current iPhone estimates for 2024 remain hittable with 2025 street estimates conservative." 2. "Pent up demand around an upgrade cycle could exceed 270 million iPhones heading into iPhone 16." 3. "Services remains rock solid with double digit growth and a key to the valuation support." 4. "AI is finally coming to Apple in the form of new App Store enhancements and built into iPhone 16 based on our work in the field." 5. "Apple has the strongest installed base of any company in the world with 2.2 billion iOS devices and the next phase of monetization is on the horizon." It doesn't like your link, for some reason. I don't know if the app version puts the [ url ], but the tagging looks a little different than what the web based site uses. But lately I often just paste in the URL, and let it do its thing. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-outlook-stay-bullish-5-reasons-ai-plan-2024-3For me, and I figure a bunch of people that have held for years/decades, I'll stubbornly hold on for a while, even when talking about eventually making 10-30-50% changes, likely 2-5 but maybe even 10 years out. And that's probably the right choice, though it might not be. I agree with Ives. Apple is still doing well, so this should be just a part of a temporary cycle. At some time it might not be, but Apple seems to be doing well, even if some days/weeks/months things seem to lump up against the company, or more likely the stock. And look at that. Ives says: And then finishes it off with: I'd like to see $250 in the next 12 months. But as of today, I doubt I would put more than 50% odds on it. But even feeling a little down and not seeing exactly where the bottom will be, I'd put at least 80% odds on seeing at least $200. I don't know where the bottom will be. But this is the time when it is sometimes tempting to put a little more on the table. I might pick up some shares, with another chunk planned if the stock digresses further. But it's also a little tempting to just go whale-like with a big options play. 1x gain at $200, 10x gain at $250, at least a year out? I might browse a bit. Like Ives said, it's not roses and rainbows. Still, sometimes it is fun to take a little risk once in a while.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Mar 5, 2024 18:22:47 GMT -8
And then finishes it off with: I'd like to see $250 in the next 12 months. But as of today, I doubt I would put more than 50% odds on it. But even feeling a little down and not seeing exactly where the bottom will be, I'd put at least 80% odds on seeing at least $200. I don't know where the bottom will be. But this is the time when it is sometimes tempting to put a little more on the table. I might pick up some shares, with another chunk planned if the stock digresses further. But it's also a little tempting to just go whale-like with a big options play. 1x gain at $200, 10x gain at $250, at least a year out? I might browse a bit. Like Ives said, it's not roses and rainbows. Still, sometimes it is fun to take a little risk once in a while. Unfortunately our targets are locked in! ––> aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/3968/aapl-predictions-thread-2024It will be interesting to see where our predictions end up. As someone said in the last day or two, 'sentiment can change quickly' Hopefully Apple is taking stock and reflecting hard and doubling down. It's not been the best of months but 2.2 billion active devices and double digit services growth is hard to ignore.
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