JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 13, 2013 7:59:59 GMT -8
No more independents? Thank you PED. What do you mean? There are a bunch of Braeburn independents on the list.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 13, 2013 8:01:04 GMT -8
What do you mean? There are a bunch of Braeburn independents on the list. He got rid of the independents not affiliated with any group. You know who I'm referring to. Ahh. Got it now.
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Post by sponge on Jul 13, 2013 8:01:05 GMT -8
What do you mean? There are a bunch of Braeburn independents on the list. He got rid of the independents not affiliated with any group. You know who I'm referring to. I could have submitted numbers but was too lazy this time. I do have them but it is not critical that the world knows them. This and next quarter are not important. 1st and 2nd quarters are where the right numbers will make or break the stock. Once again, if we are lucky aapl will get past $500 by end of the year. I don't care because I will make money past 455 and anything above that will be gravy.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 13, 2013 8:22:13 GMT -8
I hope Lovey is having a good time on her trip.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 13, 2013 9:21:37 GMT -8
For the millions of folks using an iPhone on the china mobile network - presumably - they bought their iPhone unlocked or got a second hand phone and had if unlocked. The usage of any existing iPhone on the CM network is somewhat of an inferior experience. If iPhone is indeed making a low cost iPhone that will run properly on the CM network - it's safe to say that demand will be there to be the iPhone directly from apple and circumvent the CM gate.
I'm just opening up to the incredible possibility of this as it relates to AAPL.
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Post by rickag on Jul 13, 2013 10:47:36 GMT -8
For the millions of folks using an iPhone on the china mobile network - presumably - they bought their iPhone unlocked or got a second hand phone and had if unlocked. The usage of any existing iPhone on the CM network is somewhat of an inferior experience. If iPhone is indeed making a low cost iPhone that will run properly on the CM network - it's safe to say that demand will be there to be the iPhone directly from apple and circumvent the CM gate. I'm just opening up to the incredible possibility of this as it relates to AAPL. This could be a plan. Anyone know if China Mobile has any software that could impede the use of any iPhone features that would be allowed with phones purchased through China Mobile? Sorry if this is a stupid question but I am ignorant concerning the technical aspects of cell phone carrier's rules.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 12:01:15 GMT -8
Some thoughts on seasonality in iPhone unit sales.
First of all, the March quarter is the slowest (lowest) of the calendar year. Each quarter is higher until sales peak for the calendar year in the December quarter. This is true across the spectrum of retail activity.
Average unit sales, by quarter, from calendar 2008 through 2011 March quarter 8,225 million units June quarter...8,650 million units Sept quarter 11,375 million units Dec..quarter 16,575 million units
Note how the March quarter is the lowest, and that unit sales increase each quarter until the December quarter. Also note that I did not include calendar 2012 results.
Here's what happens when calendar 2012 results are included. March quarter 13,600 million units June quarter 12,120 million units Sept quarter 14,480 million units Dec..quarter 22,820 million units
(the differences, when charted, jump out dramatically)
What was different about calendar 2012 that by itself skewed the prior 4 years averages?
iPhone 4S and SIRI
Unit sales in the December quarter 2011 more than doubled QoQ and YoY. Demand was so high that Apple could not satisfy Dec quarter demand until the March quarter of 2012. That is how important a seminal feature like SIRI was/is.
I think iOS 7 is going to have a very similar effect this year, especially when you add the impact of Qualcom's world chip (that addresses China Mobile's bastard protocol).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 12:11:28 GMT -8
This would be positive for the content agnostic Apple, and competition for the new content creators & distributors like Amazon/Netflix/YouTube (who are likely to lose content rights from the Hulu owners if Hulu becomes more successful). I don't see much impact to Netflix, as its model is very different from Hulu.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 13, 2013 17:18:01 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jul 13, 2013 17:28:45 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 20:33:41 GMT -8
Some thoughts on seasonality in iPhone unit sales. First of all, the March quarter is the slowest (lowest) of the calendar year. Each quarter is higher until sales peak for the calendar year in the December quarter. This is true across the spectrum of retail activity. Average unit sales, by quarter, from calendar 2008 through 2011 March quarter 8,225 million units June quarter ...8,650 million units Sept quarter 11,375 million units Dec ..quarter 16,575 million units Note how the March quarter is the lowest, and that unit sales increase each quarter until the December quarter. Also note that I did not include calendar 2012 results. Here's what happens when calendar 2012 results are included. March quarter 13,600 million units June quarter 12,120 million units Sept quarter 14,480 million units Dec ..quarter 22,820 million units (the differences, when charted, jump out dramatically) What was different about calendar 2012 that by itself skewed the prior 4 years averages? iPhone 4S and SIRI Unit sales in the December quarter 2011 more than doubled QoQ and YoY. Demand was so high that Apple could not satisfy Dec quarter demand until the March quarter of 2012. That is how important a seminal feature like SIRI was/is. I think iOS 7 is going to have a very similar effect this year, especially when you add the impact of Qualcom's world chip (that addresses China Mobile's bastard protocol). Wouldn't the bigger difference between 2012 and earlier years be: - The change in refresh schedule - the iPhone 4S was released 4 months later in the year than previous years, meaning during the March quarter the device was still almost brand new (rather than 6 months old) - China - the last two years china sales have risen rapidly, and the March quarter in 2012 was the launch quarter in China for the iPhone 4S.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 13, 2013 20:56:14 GMT -8
SO many fanboys. Increasingly marginalized-feeling, insecure tech snobs. "But but minority in terms of billion-plus unit handset market! But but well over 250M iOS installed base. That's less than 7 billion! So fanboi cult!" ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 22:59:34 GMT -8
lost/Stolen iPhone.
Tracking it with Find iPhone. Strange watching it move through the downtown park. Trying to zero in and coordinate with police. Find iPhone coordinates appear to be to broad. Is there a better app? (there's a kazillion people in the area of the phone). Put iPhone in lost mode w/ message to call me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 23:15:44 GMT -8
Learning some things about Find iPhone. The map used is crap. To physically get close I had to bounce back and forth between Maps and Find iPhone. Find iPhone does not display where YOU are at, just the device you are looking for. It would be EXTREMELY useful if Find iPhone displayed both, and did so on a better map. As it is now, after Playing Sound and changing phone status to lost, my iPhone is now somewhere in the Spokane River near the Howard Street Bridge. I think by playing sound and changing status (with message to call me) spooked whoever had my iPhone. edit Just discovered something else about Find iPhone. If you use www.icloud.com/find, it returns totally different results. Switching to satellite view seems to improve the map, but to what end when the iPad version disagrees with the Safari version by 2+ miles.
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 7:21:30 GMT -8
Sorry to hear about your iPhone Gregg. Hope you can get by with a cheap model until the 5S comes out.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 14, 2013 7:32:39 GMT -8
I just noticed my facetime works without wifi. I use AT&T. Anyone else notice this? Did AT&T open this up for everyone?
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 7:55:43 GMT -8
I just noticed my facetime works without wifi. I use AT&T. Anyone else notice this? Did AT&T open this up for everyone? Yes it started about a month ago.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 9:44:30 GMT -8
Sorry to hear about your iPhone Gregg. Hope you can get by with a cheap model until the 5S comes out. I still have my 4. I guess upgrading to the new model is no longer in doubt.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 14, 2013 11:02:40 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 14, 2013 11:08:08 GMT -8
If true - my opinion is that we will have a huge problem unless earnings are stupidly stronger than anticipated and CM gets on board. But lack of new product to deliver could prompt a fairly strong sell off. Again, all speculation but very, very bothersome.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 14, 2013 11:16:42 GMT -8
MORE ICE!
MORE MIX!
some of these monkeys have been OVER SERVED!
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Post by appledoc on Jul 14, 2013 11:17:14 GMT -8
I forgot about the low-end iPhone. Still would be underwhelming. And TC won't have delivered on his promise of a new product category.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 11:25:12 GMT -8
Wouldn't the bigger difference between 2012 and earlier years be: - The change in refresh schedule - the iPhone 4S was released 4 months later in the year than previous years, meaning during the March quarter the device was still almost brand new (rather than 6 months old) - China - the last two years china sales have risen rapidly, and the March quarter in 2012 was the launch quarter in China for the iPhone 4S. Good points. They may be a factor but when you address YoY results for the December quarter (quarter most heavily impacted by launch date) those arguments do not explain December quarter spikes. YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) March unit increase in absolute terms was 17,000,000 units (88.7%). You can't attribute that increase to China, neither can you attribute launch date variances. In absolute terms YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) December unit increased 17,800,000 units (109%). Even with the delayed launch of the iPhone 4S, unit sales increased by 17,800,000 units (109%), followed by March results that reflected an increase of 17,000,000 (88.7%). Another way to compare the significance of a new product is to look at the first six months after launch. Here we see: iPhone 3 ...11,300,000 units iPhone 3S 17,500,000 units iPhone 4 ...30,300,000 units iPhone 4S 72,100,000 units iPhone 5 ...85,200,000 units Note that the 4S (SIRI) outsold all previous models...combined. You cannot attribute a sales increase of that magnitude to differences in launch date and Chinese consumption. That leaves only SIRI as a defining difference, which brings me back to iOS 7. I'm modeling iPhone sales, in the first 6 months (two full quarters) after launch of the next iteration, at >110,000,000 units (29% YoY growth). This estimate is based on the size of the first 6 months of iPhone sales occurring after the release of the iPhone 4S, and an expected ratio (declining) of new customer halo sales, accelerated by iOS 7 feature capabilities as yet unannounced. I am not considering a China Mobile and/or Docomo launch in these figures (although I believe we will see a China Mobile launch in the March quarter). If smartphone sales have hit market saturation, iPhone sales of this magnitude is going to have a hugely negative impact on Samsung (Android), RIMM (Blackberry) and NOK (Winxx) sales and market share. Think positive change in AAPL sentiment through fiscal 2014.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 14, 2013 12:21:19 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 12:26:05 GMT -8
Maybe iTV is ready this fall.
I doubt it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 12:47:52 GMT -8
Ridiculously strong iPhone sales.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 12:56:14 GMT -8
Wouldn't the bigger difference between 2012 and earlier years be: - The change in refresh schedule - the iPhone 4S was released 4 months later in the year than previous years, meaning during the March quarter the device was still almost brand new (rather than 6 months old) - China - the last two years china sales have risen rapidly, and the March quarter in 2012 was the launch quarter in China for the iPhone 4S. Good points. They may be a factor but when you address YoY results for the December quarter (quarter most heavily impacted by launch date) those arguments do not explain December quarter spikes. YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) March unit increase in absolute terms was 17,000,000 units (88.7%). You can't attribute that increase to China, neither can you attribute launch date variances. In absolute terms YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) December unit increased 17,800,000 units (109%). Even with the delayed launch of the iPhone 4S, unit sales increased by 17,800,000 units (109%), followed by March results that reflected an increase of 17,000,000 (88.7%). Another way to compare the significance of a new product is to look at the first six months after launch. Here we see: iPhone 3 ...11,300,000 units iPhone 3S 17,500,000 units iPhone 4 ...30,300,000 units iPhone 4S 72,100,000 units iPhone 5 ...85,200,000 units Note that the 4S (SIRI) outsold all previous models...combined. You cannot attribute a sales increase of that magnitude to differences in launch date and Chinese consumption. That leaves only SIRI as a defining difference, which brings me back to iOS 7. I'm modeling iPhone sales, in the first 6 months (two full quarters) after launch of the next iteration, at >110,000,000 units (29% YoY growth). This estimate is based on the size of the first 6 months of iPhone sales occurring after the release of the iPhone 4S, and an expected ratio (declining) of new customer halo sales, accelerated by iOS 7 feature capabilities as yet unannounced. I am not considering a China Mobile and/or Docomo launch in these figures (although I believe we will see a China Mobile launch in the March quarter). If smartphone sales have hit market saturation, iPhone sales of this magnitude is going to have a hugely negative impact on Samsung (Android), RIMM (Blackberry) and NOK (Winxx) sales and market share. Think positive change in AAPL sentiment through fiscal 2014. Also worth noting: in calendar 2011, the entire smartphone market grew by 62% y-o-y to 488 million devices. Hope you got the stolen phone back!
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 13:01:25 GMT -8
Ridiculously strong iPhone sales. That and iPad sales and Macs along with more iTunes and App revenues then WS expects. There should be enough to see 15% growth by end of 1st quarter.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 14, 2013 13:12:29 GMT -8
That and iPad sales and Macs along with more iTunes and App revenues then WS expects. There should be enough to see 15% growth by end of 1st quarter. How you could possibly know revenues will be greater than WS expects? Or the market reaction to it, even if you did?
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 13:21:44 GMT -8
That and iPad sales and Macs along with more iTunes and App revenues then WS expects. There should be enough to see 15% growth by end of 1st quarter. How you could possibly know revenues will be greater than WS expects? Or the market reaction to it, even if you did? I don't know market reaction in this quarter. But WS has such negative view of smartphone growth and the iPhone they will be shocked in Oct with 1st quarter guidance. We will get over $500 in Oct for sure.
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