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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 18:35:25 GMT -5
The bar is open!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 18:43:42 GMT -5
I did just well enough to upgrade from tap water to something with a little more pizzazz. Fizz. Sparkle. 7-up, please! ;D From intraday before it closed: daringfireball.net/linked/2013/07/12/hp-backdoorsIf I'm reading this right, the security bulletin should read: "A potential security vulnerability has been identified with the HP StoreVirtual Storage. This vulnerability could be remotely exploited to gain unauthorized access to the device. Uh, we created it." |
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Post by nagrani on Jul 12, 2013 18:44:33 GMT -5
New restaurant I'm invested in just opened in Evanston IL. For those who are thirsty - www.farmhouseevanston.com - drinks on me!! Lets meet up. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 19:23:08 GMT -5
Technicals for Non-Technicals Chart:  |
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Jul 12, 2013 19:31:24 GMT -5
Nathan Stevens replied:
I think all aluminium is possible in iPod touches because they don't have to allow for cellular signals, whereas with iPhones with aluminium you have to design in more expensive external antennas/glass exterior components like the iPhone 5.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 19:41:54 GMT -5
(moved since you reposted here)
burgess, whatever you or any one of us would like the CheapPhone price to be, add at least $50. ;D But that's fine. There's more than one way to sell an iPhone, anyway. Look at India, for example.
Can't wait to see how Apple plans to address lower-priced iPhones. It's $649 for unlocked iPhones, and $549 for the unlocked 4S. iPad mini, though not exactly comparable, starts at $459 with LTE.
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Jul 12, 2013 19:56:58 GMT -5
burgess, whatever you or any one of us would like the CheapPhone price to be, add at least $50. ;D But that's fine. There's more than one way to sell an iPhone, anyway. Look at India, for example. Can't wait to see how Apple plans to address lower-priced iPhones. It's $649 for unlocked iPhones, and $549 for the unlocked 4S. iPad mini, though not exactly comparable, starts at $459 with LTE. Apple has been selling the iPhone 4 in a lot of places internationally since september last year for around $400 USD ($50 cheaper than the US retail price), so I don't imagine the total COGS for the iPhone 4 comes in any higher than $220 maximum. A cheapPhone target of $200 COGS seems reasonably conservative to me (+/- $10 depending on LTE inclusion or not), with $180 being my bullish optimistic target. Even if my predictions on margins are wrong (which my wife will tell you is likely), I think most potential CheapPhone sales will be incremental ones, so even if it drops overall iPhone ASP & Margins, it will cause an overall increase in total operating profits and continued growth in iPhone unit sales. Presuming its actually released, I'm fascinated to see how it will be marketed. All other apple entry level product lines are marketed on portability (instead of its cheaper price), so as not to devalue the new product line in consumers eyes. The iPod mini/nano, the Mac mini, the MacBook Air, the iPad mini are all promoted on their increased portability (lighter/smaller/thinner). If Apple follows the same formula, it will have to position a new cheapPhone in the market place as anything other than "a cheap iPhone", but it likely won't be able to market on portability as it will probably be the same size (or thicker) than the premium iPhone products. |
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Jul 12, 2013 20:04:48 GMT -5
Only 8 trading sessions until earnings!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 20:17:08 GMT -5
Marketing could be the single biggest "problem" with having a CheapPhone during an iPhone 5S generation. Something that "looks old" with the latest tech under the hood, versus something that "looks new" with last year's tech under the hood. Commentary aside, most of us can guess which one the general public will think is "newer". Even if that "new" form factor comes with certain "compromises".
Assume just for fun that iPhone combined GM is around 45%. A $600ish "average" iPhone has $270 in gross margin with that assumption. Should CheapPhones with a $400 ASP and 35% GM catch on, it seems almost inevitable that Apple's earnings will continue to "suffer". After all, you'd need to sell 2 CheapPhones to get one "average" iPhone's worth of gross margin. The mix situation will also "worsen" if there's only two iPhone choices going forward, unless CheapPhone comes in different capacities/price points.
OTOH, should there be an inflection point in the iOS vs. Android "battle", focus will shift somewhat to unit and revenue growth IMHO. Apple's "perception problem" is "allowing" gross margins to get to the heights they did. The low/mid 30s is where everyone might want to start looking for the foreseeable future.
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Post by sponge on Jul 12, 2013 20:27:59 GMT -5
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. I also used some of my cash to buy a few shares of BA. Boeing is a great company and I have personally ensured our airport had hangar space for Dreamliner testing this summer. They have their act together regardless of what you read in the press.
Yesterday I also did buy a few shares of WFM. After their split I see them doubling in the next 5 years. Another favorite place for us to shop. The sponge is finally diversifying.
We closed above 426 so I will be fine on Monday. It bodes well for a strong move higher in one week.
The story regarding Apple investment in its own Fab is great news for the next decade.
If MS is correct and Apple releases two phones at once, this stock will go ballistic in Oct when guidance shows big numbers for 1st quarter.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 12, 2013 20:36:19 GMT -5
I'm with Doc on this - we need a "wow" in the fall. I don't know what it is about the phone or any other product that will make it a wow or why I will need it but that's what Apple was always good at in the past: letting me know why I couldn't live without it. ....
Not just an upgrade....we need a "wow"..... !
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 20:41:14 GMT -5
AAPL needs a wow, not Apple Inc.
Not disagreeing, but it's a finer-ish point to make. The company itself isn't even starting the beginning of the process of failing (though the sharply correcting gross margins might give that impression).
End of the day, Apple doesn't deserve any slack from the general public, particularly with the incredibly quiet first half of the year the company's put in. I expect great things in a couple months. The start to Fall 2013 should be at least as dynamic as Fall 2012.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 12, 2013 21:00:20 GMT -5
I don't disagree Mav - it's the stock, not the company but we need a wow to get people excited again and build momentum into the stock. There will always be a small group of faithful that remain through thick and thin but sometimes - ya just have to part the seas to get things going again. Apple can do it - I have no doubt - but they need to time things a bit better. Heck, even they are frustrated by the stock price - we've gone over this on the board over and over again.....but we still need something more than upgrades. If AAPL is sssooooo dependent on the mobile market and that market (according to some) is so saturated, then we need to give a person a reason to want to upgrade - or better yet - not even wait till their upgrade is due because they WANT that new, new thing! I wanna be wowed - because if I am then AAPL will indeed = Apple Co.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 21:41:01 GMT -5
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. Ummmm...not quite sure what you did there, Spongie. I don't think you do covered calls. Did you perhaps repurchase long calls that you previously sold for 6% less than you previously sold them? So maybe knocked 6% off your original cost basis? |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 12, 2013 21:51:14 GMT -5
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. Ummmm...not quite sure what you did there, Spongie. I don't think you do covered calls. Did you perhaps repurchase long calls that you previously sold for 6% less than you previously sold them? So maybe knocked 6% off your original cost basis? Spongie also doesn't factor in the net effect of his margin interest costs......but it all works out in five years...   |
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marcellus
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Post by marcellus on Jul 12, 2013 22:55:51 GMT -5
Ballmer is buying time with yet another reorg. I'll post the link to his email to Softie employees but please don't read while driving, as it may make you drowsy and induce a strong somnambulistic reaction. Maybe that's why I've seen him fairly regularly at a local Starbucks. He probably orders his caffeine "straight up." And what the hell does this gem of Ballmer-speak mean? Dotted line report? Dynamics. Kirill Tatarinov will continue to run Dynamics as is, but his product leaders will dotted line report to Qi Lu, his marketing leader will dotted line report to Tami Reller and his sales leader will dotted line report to the COO group.www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/Press/2013/Jul13/07-11OneMicrosoft.aspx |
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Post by marcellus on Jul 12, 2013 22:59:51 GMT -5
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 23:01:34 GMT -5
Mercel, Joy of Tech's version reads better.
And then when you Google for the email and find out that THIS IS AN ACTUAL EMAIL... ;D
Dotted line report. Is that like the Microsoft Store logo version of "direct report"? Whatever the case, sometimes sell signals show up in e-mails. I'll be looking to buy MSFT puts if a good opportunity presents itself.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 13, 2013 0:23:51 GMT -5
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Jul 13, 2013 4:28:48 GMT -5
Depressing Fact:
In July 2011, two years ago, AAPL traded as high as $404.00 per share.
At the time Apple had TTM earnings of $24 per share.
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