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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 15:35:25 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 15:43:42 GMT -8
I did just well enough to upgrade from tap water to something with a little more pizzazz. Fizz. Sparkle. 7-up, please! ;D From intraday before it closed: daringfireball.net/linked/2013/07/12/hp-backdoorsIf I'm reading this right, the security bulletin should read: "A potential security vulnerability has been identified with the HP StoreVirtual Storage. This vulnerability could be remotely exploited to gain unauthorized access to the device. Uh, we created it."
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Post by nagrani on Jul 12, 2013 15:44:33 GMT -8
New restaurant I'm invested in just opened in Evanston IL. For those who are thirsty - www.farmhouseevanston.com - drinks on me!! Lets meet up.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 16:23:08 GMT -8
Technicals for Non-Technicals Chart:
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 16:31:24 GMT -8
Nathan Stevens replied:
I think all aluminium is possible in iPod touches because they don't have to allow for cellular signals, whereas with iPhones with aluminium you have to design in more expensive external antennas/glass exterior components like the iPhone 5.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 16:41:54 GMT -8
(moved since you reposted here)
burgess, whatever you or any one of us would like the CheapPhone price to be, add at least $50. ;D But that's fine. There's more than one way to sell an iPhone, anyway. Look at India, for example.
Can't wait to see how Apple plans to address lower-priced iPhones. It's $649 for unlocked iPhones, and $549 for the unlocked 4S. iPad mini, though not exactly comparable, starts at $459 with LTE.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 16:56:58 GMT -8
burgess, whatever you or any one of us would like the CheapPhone price to be, add at least $50. ;D But that's fine. There's more than one way to sell an iPhone, anyway. Look at India, for example. Can't wait to see how Apple plans to address lower-priced iPhones. It's $649 for unlocked iPhones, and $549 for the unlocked 4S. iPad mini, though not exactly comparable, starts at $459 with LTE. Apple has been selling the iPhone 4 in a lot of places internationally since september last year for around $400 USD ($50 cheaper than the US retail price), so I don't imagine the total COGS for the iPhone 4 comes in any higher than $220 maximum. A cheapPhone target of $200 COGS seems reasonably conservative to me (+/- $10 depending on LTE inclusion or not), with $180 being my bullish optimistic target. Even if my predictions on margins are wrong (which my wife will tell you is likely), I think most potential CheapPhone sales will be incremental ones, so even if it drops overall iPhone ASP & Margins, it will cause an overall increase in total operating profits and continued growth in iPhone unit sales. Presuming its actually released, I'm fascinated to see how it will be marketed. All other apple entry level product lines are marketed on portability (instead of its cheaper price), so as not to devalue the new product line in consumers eyes. The iPod mini/nano, the Mac mini, the MacBook Air, the iPad mini are all promoted on their increased portability (lighter/smaller/thinner). If Apple follows the same formula, it will have to position a new cheapPhone in the market place as anything other than "a cheap iPhone", but it likely won't be able to market on portability as it will probably be the same size (or thicker) than the premium iPhone products.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 17:04:48 GMT -8
Only 8 trading sessions until earnings!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 17:17:08 GMT -8
Marketing could be the single biggest "problem" with having a CheapPhone during an iPhone 5S generation. Something that "looks old" with the latest tech under the hood, versus something that "looks new" with last year's tech under the hood. Commentary aside, most of us can guess which one the general public will think is "newer". Even if that "new" form factor comes with certain "compromises".
Assume just for fun that iPhone combined GM is around 45%. A $600ish "average" iPhone has $270 in gross margin with that assumption. Should CheapPhones with a $400 ASP and 35% GM catch on, it seems almost inevitable that Apple's earnings will continue to "suffer". After all, you'd need to sell 2 CheapPhones to get one "average" iPhone's worth of gross margin. The mix situation will also "worsen" if there's only two iPhone choices going forward, unless CheapPhone comes in different capacities/price points.
OTOH, should there be an inflection point in the iOS vs. Android "battle", focus will shift somewhat to unit and revenue growth IMHO. Apple's "perception problem" is "allowing" gross margins to get to the heights they did. The low/mid 30s is where everyone might want to start looking for the foreseeable future.
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Post by sponge on Jul 12, 2013 17:27:59 GMT -8
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. I also used some of my cash to buy a few shares of BA. Boeing is a great company and I have personally ensured our airport had hangar space for Dreamliner testing this summer. They have their act together regardless of what you read in the press.
Yesterday I also did buy a few shares of WFM. After their split I see them doubling in the next 5 years. Another favorite place for us to shop. The sponge is finally diversifying.
We closed above 426 so I will be fine on Monday. It bodes well for a strong move higher in one week.
The story regarding Apple investment in its own Fab is great news for the next decade.
If MS is correct and Apple releases two phones at once, this stock will go ballistic in Oct when guidance shows big numbers for 1st quarter.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 12, 2013 17:36:19 GMT -8
I'm with Doc on this - we need a "wow" in the fall. I don't know what it is about the phone or any other product that will make it a wow or why I will need it but that's what Apple was always good at in the past: letting me know why I couldn't live without it. .... Not just an upgrade....we need a "wow"..... !
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 17:41:14 GMT -8
AAPL needs a wow, not Apple Inc.
Not disagreeing, but it's a finer-ish point to make. The company itself isn't even starting the beginning of the process of failing (though the sharply correcting gross margins might give that impression).
End of the day, Apple doesn't deserve any slack from the general public, particularly with the incredibly quiet first half of the year the company's put in. I expect great things in a couple months. The start to Fall 2013 should be at least as dynamic as Fall 2012.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 12, 2013 18:00:20 GMT -8
I don't disagree Mav - it's the stock, not the company but we need a wow to get people excited again and build momentum into the stock. There will always be a small group of faithful that remain through thick and thin but sometimes - ya just have to part the seas to get things going again. Apple can do it - I have no doubt - but they need to time things a bit better. Heck, even they are frustrated by the stock price - we've gone over this on the board over and over again.....but we still need something more than upgrades. If AAPL is sssooooo dependent on the mobile market and that market (according to some) is so saturated, then we need to give a person a reason to want to upgrade - or better yet - not even wait till their upgrade is due because they WANT that new, new thing! I wanna be wowed - because if I am then AAPL will indeed = Apple Co.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 18:41:01 GMT -8
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. Ummmm...not quite sure what you did there, Spongie. I don't think you do covered calls. Did you perhaps repurchase long calls that you previously sold for 6% less than you previously sold them? So maybe knocked 6% off your original cost basis?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 12, 2013 18:51:14 GMT -8
Well after watching us hold the 424 line I felt bold enough to buy most of my options back for a 6% profit. Had we gone down to 422 and stayed below that, I would have stayed out. Ummmm...not quite sure what you did there, Spongie. I don't think you do covered calls. Did you perhaps repurchase long calls that you previously sold for 6% less than you previously sold them? So maybe knocked 6% off your original cost basis? Spongie also doesn't factor in the net effect of his margin interest costs......but it all works out in five years...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 19:55:51 GMT -8
Ballmer is buying time with yet another reorg. I'll post the link to his email to Softie employees but please don't read while driving, as it may make you drowsy and induce a strong somnambulistic reaction. Maybe that's why I've seen him fairly regularly at a local Starbucks. He probably orders his caffeine "straight up." And what the hell does this gem of Ballmer-speak mean? Dotted line report? Dynamics. Kirill Tatarinov will continue to run Dynamics as is, but his product leaders will dotted line report to Qi Lu, his marketing leader will dotted line report to Tami Reller and his sales leader will dotted line report to the COO group.www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/Press/2013/Jul13/07-11OneMicrosoft.aspx
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 19:59:51 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 20:01:34 GMT -8
Mercel, Joy of Tech's version reads better.
And then when you Google for the email and find out that THIS IS AN ACTUAL EMAIL... ;D
Dotted line report. Is that like the Microsoft Store logo version of "direct report"? Whatever the case, sometimes sell signals show up in e-mails. I'll be looking to buy MSFT puts if a good opportunity presents itself.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 12, 2013 21:23:51 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 1:28:48 GMT -8
Depressing Fact:
In July 2011, two years ago, AAPL traded as high as $404.00 per share.
At the time Apple had TTM earnings of $24 per share.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 2:22:15 GMT -8
Hulu not being sold, Time Warner Cable possibly being added to the coalition of owners. www.theverge.com/2013/7/12/4519198/time-warner-cable-may-buy-stake-in-huluInteresting. I see this as a positive for Apple. It appears the networks are keen to retain control of their content distribution in the brave new world of online. If this is really their strategy, then perhaps the more owners (and the content they bring with them) the better it is, with all of it being available in one location/App, and only one entity to deal with. Hulu is already available on all apple devices, if Hulu brings in more content partners itself - its much less work for Apple to do. This would be positive for the content agnostic Apple, and competition for the new content creators & distributors like Amazon/Netflix/YouTube (who are likely to lose content rights from the Hulu owners if Hulu becomes more successful).
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Post by sponge on Jul 13, 2013 3:41:12 GMT -8
Ummmm...not quite sure what you did there, Spongie. I don't think you do covered calls. Did you perhaps repurchase long calls that you previously sold for 6% less than you previously sold them? So maybe knocked 6% off your original cost basis? Spongie also doesn't factor in the net effect of his margin interest costs......but it all works out in five years... Yes in 5 years I will be rich. I sold calls for 3.30 and bought them back at 3.10. So I lowered by cost basis by 6%. It is profit in my world.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 13, 2013 6:18:07 GMT -8
Apple really is responsible for everything.....even your porn addiction.. abovethelaw.com/2013/07/lawyer-apple-should-protect-me-from-my-porn-addiction/Amazing! Are we a world of helpless buffoons, unable to take responsibility for ANYTHING. ------------from the article: Earlier this week, I wrote about a lawyer in Florida suing Apple for millions because he couldn’t be bothered to figure out how iTunes works. Little did I know that this wasn’t the craziest law suit brought by a lawyer against Apple. A tipster pointed us to a 50-page complaint filed in federal court last month seeking damages and injunctive relief against Apple for making devices that can display porn, or as the rest of us call it, the Internet. The complaint gracefully skips from pop psychology, to comparing porn to handguns, to appeals to the divine rule of the Almighty. This wasn’t the best week for Apple in the courtroom, but at least the in-house lawyers have this suit to look forward to defending… The plaintiff, Chris Sevier, is an attorney in Nashville. A news report of his arrest last month on unrelated charges of stalking country music star John Rich (the guy whose obnoxious song mars my weekly viewing of College GameDay) states that Sevier’s 36, though his Model Mayhem bio says he’s 26. For someone mad about porn on the Internet, he’s already adopted its first cardinal rule: models always lie about their age. Sevier’s complaint makes a simple request: Apple should sell all products with an installed filter blocking all Internet porn. If the buyer, over the age of 18, wishes to unlock the Internet, he or she is free to contact Apple, sign a form acknowledging the ills of pornography, and receive a code to remove the filter. Sevier argues that the burden must be shifted from parents to the manufacturer to sell a locked device. That sounds like a fair enough, even laudable goal. But Sevier also wants these filters installed lest the responsibility be up to *shudder* individuals exercising self-control.
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Post by rickag on Jul 13, 2013 6:20:35 GMT -8
Spongie also doesn't factor in the net effect of his margin interest costs......but it all works out in five years... Yes in 5 years I will be rich. I sold calls for 3.30 and bought them back at 3.10. So I lowered by cost basis by 6%. It is profit in my world. Good job, but I can't believe you bet against AAPL by selling uncovered calls.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 13, 2013 6:23:39 GMT -8
Yes in 5 years I will be rich. I sold calls for 3.30 and bought them back at 3.10. So I lowered by cost basis by 6%. It is profit in my world. Good job, but I can't believe you bet against AAPL by selling uncovered calls. Don't want to muddy this, but I think Spongie sold calls he was long last week. He has now bought them back at a lower price. He treats the lower basis on the holding as profit.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 13, 2013 6:44:31 GMT -8
Hubby and I are traveling this week, so I may be out of pocket. Try not to kill each other.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 13, 2013 6:49:03 GMT -8
Hubby and I are traveling this week, so I may be out of pocket. Try not to kill each other. Hey, I posted an article about porn and you didn't ban me..... Now, PED's look at iPhone numbers for this quarter. Lots of old friends in the chart... tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/13/apple-iphones-q3-2013/
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Post by appledoc on Jul 13, 2013 7:19:05 GMT -8
Hubby and I are traveling this week, so I may be out of pocket. Try not to kill each other. Hey, I posted an article about porn and you didn't ban me..... Now, PED's look at iPhone numbers for this quarter. Lots of old friends in the chart... tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/13/apple-iphones-q3-2013/No more independents? Thank you PED.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 13, 2013 7:41:30 GMT -8
No more independents? Thank you PED. What do you mean? There are a bunch of Braeburn independents on the list.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 13, 2013 7:51:45 GMT -8
No more independents? Thank you PED. What do you mean? There are a bunch of Braeburn independents on the list. He got rid of the independents not affiliated with any group. You know who I'm referring to.
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