Post by burgess on Jul 13, 2013 23:33:41 GMT -5
Jul 13, 2013 15:01:15 GMT -5 @greggthurman said:Some thoughts on seasonality in iPhone unit sales.
First of all, the March quarter is the slowest (lowest) of the calendar year. Each quarter is higher until sales peak for the calendar year in the December quarter. This is true across the spectrum of retail activity.
Average unit sales, by quarter, from calendar 2008 through 2011
March quarter 8,225 million units
June quarter...8,650 million units
Sept quarter 11,375 million units
Dec..quarter 16,575 million units
Note how the March quarter is the lowest, and that unit sales increase each quarter until the December quarter. Also note that I did not include calendar 2012 results.
Here's what happens when calendar 2012 results are included.
March quarter 13,600 million units
June quarter 12,120 million units
Sept quarter 14,480 million units
Dec..quarter 22,820 million units
(the differences, when charted, jump out dramatically)
What was different about calendar 2012 that by itself skewed the prior 4 years averages?
iPhone 4S and SIRI
Unit sales in the December quarter 2011 more than doubled QoQ and YoY. Demand was so high that Apple could not satisfy Dec quarter demand until the March quarter of 2012. That is how important a seminal feature like SIRI was/is.
I think iOS 7 is going to have a very similar effect this year, especially when you add the impact of Qualcom's world chip (that addresses China Mobile's bastard protocol).
Wouldn't the bigger difference between 2012 and earlier years be:
- The change in refresh schedule - the iPhone 4S was released 4 months later in the year than previous years, meaning during the March quarter the device was still almost brand new (rather than 6 months old)
- China - the last two years china sales have risen rapidly, and the March quarter in 2012 was the launch quarter in China for the iPhone 4S.