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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 16:26:13 GMT -8
The bar is open... Who needs a drink?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 16:31:23 GMT -8
A song comes to mind. "Help" by the Beatles.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 13, 2013 16:37:47 GMT -8
A song comes to mind. "Help" by the Beatles. The Colors of My World ( were sold out this weekend)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 16:41:26 GMT -8
Clearly, you didn't buy above the gap down. Oh well.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 17:15:44 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 17:27:47 GMT -8
Whoa. I can see NTT DoCoMo accounting for a few hundred thousand 5C/5S sales at launch given enough supply/capacity to move that volume of product.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 13, 2013 17:34:09 GMT -8
Happy one year anniversary of iPads forum!!! I miss you guys, despite most of you are likely insane.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 17:36:30 GMT -8
Whoa. I can see NTT DoCoMo accounting for a few hundred thousand 5C/5S sales at launch given enough supply/capacity to move that volume of product. Yeah, and while China Mobile grew accounts, they lost 3G subscribers. Some estimates are as high as 3% of total base, i.e., 4,000,000. 3G average subscriber revenue is as much as 10X feature phone subscriber. So 4,000,000 lost 3G subscribers equates to 40,000,000 total subscriber revenue, Its been a while since I read that, and now I'm having difficulty finding the link. Hope I remembered the details accurately.
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Post by prazan on Sept 13, 2013 17:59:30 GMT -8
The smartphone market in Japan was about 29 phones (Flurry Analytics) in 2012, with DoCoMo having a share of about 45%, or 13 million phones sold (Chicago Trib).
If it's accurate as reported that DoCoMo has committed 40% of smartphone sales to Apple, then back of envelope numbers indicate Apple will sell about 1.4 million phones to DoCoMo this coming quarter.
This isn't purely additive to Apple's Japan sales, given that approximately 100K of DoCoMo's customers have typically abandoned the carrier to buy iPhones at one of its two rivals. But it seems reasonable to expect that this will add about 1.2 million phones per quarter to Apple's total Japan sales.
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2013 18:28:29 GMT -8
Happy one year anniversary of iPads forum!!! I miss you guys, despite most of you are likely insane. AAPL closing price 9/13/2012 $682.98 You are likewise missed.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 18:32:49 GMT -8
It'll be a good boost to iPhone sales, and it may be more front-loaded depending on demand curve and supply.
It's not a China Mobile add, but it'll be a nice carrier add overall for sure.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 13, 2013 18:42:40 GMT -8
At the close of trading - I bought a boatload of 465-470 BCSs that expire two Fridays from now. I'm banking on pre-order announcement coming from apple at the 2 million mark (double of what it was last year). The announcement should be made before trading opens on Monday.
I also think market buzz for apple will be great next week due to: New ios7 New iPhones being released on Friday and lines everywhere - Japan / China / US.
People wil realize how impactful sentiment is when they start seeing long lines.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 18:49:59 GMT -8
At the close of trading - I bought a boatload of 465-470 BCSs that expire two Fridays from now. I'm banking on pre-order announcement coming from apple at the 2 million mark (double of what it was last year). The announcement should be made before trading opens on Monday. I also think market buzz for apple will be great next week due to: New ios7 New iPhones being released on Friday and lines everywhere - Japan / China / US. People wil realize how impactful sentiment is when they start seeing long lines. Do you REALLY think Apple will report a 2M # for 5c's and let the media spin a decline from 5M to 2M iPhones sold. THAT is INSANE.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 18:57:13 GMT -8
Whoa, whoa, whoa Mercel. You need to get your numbers right. ;D
Two stages of announcements.
Monday after pre-ordering (last year: 2M iPhone 5 preorders)
Monday AFTER THAT, opening weekend sales (5M sold)
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Post by nagrani on Sept 13, 2013 18:59:17 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 19:01:25 GMT -8
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 19:02:19 GMT -8
I wouldn't bank too much. No one has any clue what the numbers will be like, even Apple (I mean, I'm sure they have a projection, but).
I'd say 1.5-2M iPhone 5C preorders would be good enough for Apple to announce. Who knows.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 19:02:40 GMT -8
Ahem, you're partially right. Apple announced 2M in the first 24 hours of pre orders, double the previous record. But yeah, I conflated pre orders with sales #s. Nonetheless, Apple isn't going to trust WS spinning unit pre orders this year when only half the product line up was available.
Unless they do something like 3M+ and that would be a surprise (a big one).
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 19:03:51 GMT -8
Happy one year anniversary of iPads forum!!! I miss you guys, despite most of you are likely insane. ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 19:05:33 GMT -8
I wouldn't bank too much. No one has any clue what the numbers will be like, even Apple (I mean, I'm sure they have a projection, but). I'd say 1.5-2M iPhone 5C preorders would be good enough for Apple to announce. Who knows. Is WS really expecting a # this Monday for the first 24 hours? If they are, then I'll get my buying opportunity on Monday. If I recall correctly, Apple did not announce pre orders on the 4s -- the 2M # was for iPhone 5 a year ago. Edit: I'm correct, here's the link: www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/09/17iPhone-5-Pre-Orders-Top-Two-Million-in-First-24-Hours.html
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 19:07:43 GMT -8
Whoa, whoa, whoa Mercel. You need to get your numbers right. ;D Two stages of announcements. Monday after pre-ordering (last year: 2M iPhone 5 preorders) Monday AFTER THAT, opening weekend sales (5M sold) Mav = Renaissance Man He speaks FA, TA, and Techno-Geek.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 19:19:45 GMT -8
All in. Dodging margin calls. If we hit 550 in one month I will make up all of my option losses in the last 12 months. A year from now we will be very happy and two years amazed where the stock will be. LEAPS are your ticket. Thanks a lot Sponge, you just accomplished what 1,000 car threads could not have... Note to self...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 19:28:00 GMT -8
I was totally right on your misunderstanding Mercel but that's OK. ;D
Monday will be interesting.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 20:00:00 GMT -8
Mav = trades like it's the Renaissance. Like the 14th Century or whatever.
So doomed.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 20:14:28 GMT -8
I was totally right on your misunderstanding Mercel but that's OK. ;D Monday will be interesting. I read your comment that 2M pre orders first weekend (vs. 24 hours). But regardless, how does Apple produce a favorable compare of ANY kind when the flagship is taken out of the mix this time. WS can't (and won't) make any such distinctions.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 20:21:22 GMT -8
I know, which is exactly I've been "bugged" by the Sep. 20 order date for iPhone 5S the minute I saw the slide (as I think I said earlier today).
It's like a Catch-22 for Apple. Likely temporary, but even Uncle Carl can only do so much. Depending on the next couple weeks we might need friggin' China Mobile to lend a catalyst. It all depends on iPhone 5C supply from the 20th-28th.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 20:25:10 GMT -8
The bar is open... Who needs a drink? I think I need two drinks - one in celebration of a great product release, the other in despair of the share price reaction. I think many in the mainstream media have missed the point of the 5S, and its "forward looking" personality. First, the 64 bit chip. (Thanks to Bud for sharing his thoughts on it in the intraday thread.) Most discussion everywhere about it is whether or not the 64 bit A7 adds anything to the user experience. I think yes, but the more important point is not what it does now, but what it means in future. In a couple of iterations every iPhone & iPad apple sells will be using a 64 bit chip, and at that point future versions of iOS and its millions of Apps will likely only support 64 bit chips (Meanwhile competing platforms will be shipping a wide assortment of 32 & 64 bit hardware with developers continuing to target their lowest common denominator). If you buy a 5S today, its likely you will still be able to run the latest version of iOS & apps for the next 4-5 yeas. The Touch ID fingerprint sensor: obviously a great useful feature that will increase security and make purchases (at first only on apples iOS stores) much more convenient. ENTERPRISE customers will LOVE this, for the security alone. Like the 64 bit chip, as touch ID become standard on iOS devices, and users become comfortable using it with their iTunes accounts, Apple can flip the switch and allow it to be used for an alternative payment method that is installed on every phone (& iPad ?) it sells. There is zero chance google will be able to convince the thousands of android OEM vendors to install a fingerprint scanner as standard, so its simply something they can't compete with (even if they had the technology). The M7 coprocessor: possibly there's a big hint here where apple is heading with wearables, I think the iWatch is likely to be more of an additional sensor that is used by a M7 equipped iPhone, rather than a full blown iOS device strapped to your wrist. Rather than being a platform itself, the iWatch is a sensor that Apple & 3rd party apps can target in much the same way as they use the accelerometer, microphones, cameras & gyroscopes onboard the iPhone today. The M7 is designed to be an always on component that collects sensor data, which preserves battery life as it lets the main CPU sleep. This also benefits an iWatch, as it may not need a CPU itself (which would enable much longer multi day battery life) - just a low energy Bluetooth connection sending sensor data to the iPhones M7 chip. Or maybe an M7 in the iWatch talking to an M7 in the iPhone. So in my mind the iWatch has now gone from being a nano sized iPod touch strapped to your wrist, to being a sleek good looking device that you can probably wear in all situations. For instance you can probably wear it swimming to record pulse rate / arm strokes / distance travelled etc - good luck attempting that with a galaxy gear! To sum up, look at the 4S: it took just two years for every iPhone sold now to have at least an A5, Siri, and turn by turn voice navigation. In two years time the same will be true of Touch ID, 64 bit chips & OS, M7 type tracking, dual flash & Slo-mo camera tech. I like this piece comparing Apples & Mercedez S-class products: furbo.org/2013/09/11/sonderklasse/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 20:28:47 GMT -8
Oh, iWatch will probably be $249 and the pundits will scream and laugh and taunt.
And it'll probably still do very well. ;D
All I think I "know" is that M7 means wearables, SOMETIME. I suppose you could also read it as an Apple troll for competitors to rush still more lousy wearables to market.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 20:38:42 GMT -8
FWIW: I think Apple totally nailed the colors on the 5c. Too bad about the absence of black but there's always the 5s.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 13, 2013 21:05:19 GMT -8
I don't expect any sales announcement until September 23. I agree to try and explain presales on the 5c after three days would be self-defeating. Unless the number is 4 million....
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