Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 21:42:04 GMT -8
FWIW: I think Apple totally nailed the colors on the 5c. Too bad about the absence of black but there's always the 5s. It's all about the blue. That's why Apple chose it for the 5C video. It's the best color, hands down. ...what?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 21:42:49 GMT -8
I don't expect any sales announcement until September 23. I agree to try and explain presales on the 5c after three days would be self-defeating. Unless the number is 4 million.... If the number is around at least 2M...Apple might think about it. My WAG, they don't, and we wait to see what WS does (hm, I wonder).
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Post by nagrani on Sept 13, 2013 23:12:35 GMT -8
Guys 3m or more. Monday am announcement
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 0:22:13 GMT -8
I thought you were done here bro
Also, doubt it, but certainly wouldn't mind it
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 14, 2013 1:54:25 GMT -8
If there is absence of an announcement, WS will begin speculation - as they started to on Friday (don't know if you folks caught it) about delay time in shipping in various places. Hence if AAPL does not provide numbers - WS will do it for them - and they don't care whether they are right or wrong - accountability is not part of their verbiage - they will spew whatever they please to capture headlines and/or eyeballs. So be prepared for volatility for sure.
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Post by osx10 on Sept 14, 2013 3:50:40 GMT -8
Wow, maybe Apple DID successfully double-down on secrecy. You might find this worthwhile reading. The ultimate Screw U to SamsungBravo to Daniel Eran Dilger! Maybe CNBC's ratings wouldn't be declining if they spent more time with Daniel and Horace rather than the clueless like Misek, Blodgett, & Zabinsky.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 4:57:06 GMT -8
Wow, maybe Apple DID successfully double-down on secrecy. You might find this worthwhile reading. The ultimate Screw U to SamsungBravo to Daniel Eran Dilger! Maybe CNBC's ratings wouldn't be declining if they spent more time with Daniel and Horace rather than the clueless like Misek, Blodgett, & Zabinsky. Thanks for the Link! Daniel has been writing brilliantly of late (sure he has a pro-apple bias, but so does reality), and I love the way he occasionally slips a deserving blatant insult into his otherwise well written prose. If the A7 is actually a TSMC chip I'm going to be over the moon. It also might explain why the 5C is being pushed so heavy to begin with - with A7 production still ramping up, although it can't be in that limited a supply as apple could have simply postponed the 5S release a little while (and still shipped the 5C on the 20th). Appleinsider needs to start doing some video pieces, especially for these excellent long form articles.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 14, 2013 5:00:19 GMT -8
FWIW: I think Apple totally nailed the colors on the 5c. Too bad about the absence of black but there's always the 5s. It's all about the blue. That's why Apple chose it for the 5C video. It's the best color, hands down. ...what? Carolina blue... in honor of the data farm there!
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 14, 2013 5:05:07 GMT -8
If there is absence of an announcement, WS will begin speculation - as they started to on Friday (don't know if you folks caught it) about delay time in shipping in various places. Hence if AAPL does not provide numbers - WS will do it for them - and they don't care whether they are right or wrong - accountability is not part of their verbiage - they will spew whatever they please to capture headlines and/or eyeballs. So be prepared for volatility for sure. Yeah, and someone working at Apple knows all this and they just may be looking to purchase some shares at a discount.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 14, 2013 5:13:51 GMT -8
I think once the 5C is out, being so recognizable, there could be an "envy" effect on sales going forward. At a minimum, it will be clear to nearby observers what brand of phone a person is using when they are using the 5C.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2013 5:51:25 GMT -8
I thought you were done here bro Also, doubt it, but certainly wouldn't mind it Ha, ha...this is like Phoebes comment...do you doubt and not mind Nagrani bein done here...or is it that big sales number? ( I know, I know) and Nagrani.....stick around.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2013 5:57:19 GMT -8
Price wars, get your price wars here....5s free on contract in Japan.....boom. appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/14/apples-iphone-sparks-japanese-carrier-battle-iphone-5s-goes-free-on-contractWith the announcement that Japan's largest cellular provider NTT DoCoMo would start sales of Apple's iPhone for the first time, the country's three major carriers now have access to the device. In what looks to be a price war to attract new customers, all three telecoms — DoCoMo, SoftBank and KDDI — are offering the iPhone 5s with discounts that effectively make the phone free on contract. As noted by CNET, the special pricing only applies to the 16GB version of the handset. As with any subsidized device, limitations apply to early upgraders, though the up front fee is still less than what customers in the U.S. have to pay. Interestingly, only KDDI is offering a free version of the cheaper iPhone 5c with a new contract activation or transfer from another carrier. ----------- The comments note that the 16 gig version of the flagship phone was available for free on the other two carriers in the past, but with all three pushing this... Question: with a screaming deal like this being pushed, could there be significant supply constraints?
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 14, 2013 7:23:56 GMT -8
It's all about the blue. That's why Apple chose it for the 5C video. It's the best color, hands down. ...what? Carolina blue... in honor of the data farm there! Wrong and Wrong .... GOLD IS BEST !! teamcoco.com/video/conan-highlight-gold-iphone ;D
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2013 8:15:54 GMT -8
Wow, maybe Apple DID successfully double-down on secrecy. You might find this worthwhile reading. The ultimate Screw U to SamsungBravo to Daniel Eran Dilger! Yes, indeed. Thanks for the pointer to this fabulous article. Clearly Apple has been playing both offense and defense during the "quiet period" of the last year, while Samesung has been throwing crap like Galaxy Gear against the wall to see if it sticks. Really, it's like they are playing in two different leagues, but the import of this is far beyond the ken of the chattering class.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 8:59:55 GMT -8
I'm of the belief that we continue to underestimate the Chinese market. A quick search this morning revealed that China Unicom (#2 China carrier) and China Telecom (#3 China carrier) had a combined 190 million 3G subscribers. That's almost the total of ATT and Verizon subscribers. Here is the point, China Unicom/Telecom have only offered 3G since 2009, and grew their 3G subscriber base >70% during the last year.They both attribute their 3G growth to the iPhone. China Mobile has 137,000,000 3G subscribers, of which ~35 million are using jail broke iPhones. This year is the first in which Chinese 3G subscribers, totaling 327 million (almost the total population of the US) will participate in launch ordering. Then we have DoCoMo with another 60,000,000 3G subscribers. A recent survey showed that 66% of subscribers leaving DoCoMo did so to get the iPhone. Last year China Unicom and China Telecom sold 2,000,000 iPhones 1st weekend (delayed 2 months from US launch). That launch led to riots, as demand far exceeded supply. All things being equal, I find it hard to believe that pre-orders and 1st weekend sales will not double (at minimum). Apple's capital expenditures of the past year, and recent (last 6 months) hiring by Foxconn and Pegatron seem to bear this out, and we haven't even heard from Brazil production.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 14, 2013 9:09:50 GMT -8
Yep. WS is about to get caught with its pants down.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 9:13:45 GMT -8
Price wars, get your price wars here....5s free on contract in Japan.....boom. Question: with a screaming deal like this being pushed, could there be significant supply constraints? Only in Japan. Apple has its distribution numbers set, promotional stunts like won't cause Apple to deviate from it, although Apple, resulting from contract discussions with the carriers, may have planned for it. I don't see Apple having made significant adjustments based on the competitive market in Japan. This kind of marketing tells me that the iPhone subscriber is valued above all others, but that that number is nearing saturation, so the carriers are trying to steal subscribers from competitors. Nobody has ever done this with/for a Samsung product. I smell a major shift in market shares among manufacturers.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 9:23:25 GMT -8
To my memory, Apple hasn't reported pre orders on last year's model, along with the new flagship. That said, the 5c IS a new model in name and SKU. There's no channel inventory of this, unlike the 4s a year ago.
The iPhone 5 brought down Apple servers last year and when they returned, the wait times were shortly extended to 2-3 weeks, within hours after becoming available. That didn't happen this year, as all 5c models are still available (except one).
Those predicting Apple to report a bigger number than 2M for this year's 5c, remodded with color and polycarbonate are betting on two things: 1. There is ample supply (seems likely given the above) and 2. Demand is robust despite not holding it or seeing it outside of online photos.
Judging from polls about consumer demand, ATT inquiries, etc. for demand, the 5s is HEAVILY favored to sell more than the 5c, at least at launch.
It seems unlikely that preorders from retailers like Best Buy count (remember, they have no inventory of this product), so could Apple sell 2M+ iPhones to individual customers in the first 24 hours (the measuring stick for YOY comparison). I would be more than a little surprised. If they include Friday, Saturday and Sunday, yeah, maybe, maybe.
So I'll retract my "Sherman-esque" comments of "no way," but I'm still not expecting it.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 14, 2013 9:33:14 GMT -8
Mercel - this will tip you over. This year - Big China and Japan (brand new carrier) are also part of the population that can preorder. Last year - apple sold 2 million in an hour before they shut down the server. So far - they are still going so supply is there. Im sure demand is there as well.
On Friday - anyone who is an iPhone that is out of contract can trade in their old phone and upgrade to a new 5c or 5s at a big discount or free in many cases.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 9:41:36 GMT -8
Mercel - this will tip you over. This year - Big China and Japan (brand new carrier) are also part of the population that can preorder. Last year - apple sold 2 million in an hour before they shut down the server. So far - they are still going so supply is there. Im sure demand is there as well. On Friday - anyone who is an iPhone that is out of contract can trade in their old phone and upgrade to a new 5c or 5s at a big discount or free in many cases. I love your enthusiasm but 2M per hour? Apple reported 2M in the first 24 hours for last year's iPhone 5.
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Post by cbingle on Sept 14, 2013 10:02:57 GMT -8
Does your IPhone have to be out of contract to trade in?
I have a 4s that I have had with Verizon for 1 year. Any chance to trade in for new 5c or 5s?
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Post by nathanstevens on Sept 14, 2013 10:31:11 GMT -8
The huge number of 5c leaks before the announcement leads me to think that launch supply this year is also huge.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 10:40:41 GMT -8
To sum up, look at the 4S: it took just two years for every iPhone sold now to have at least an A5, Siri, and turn by turn voice navigation. In two years time the same will be true of Touch ID, 64 bit chips & OS, M7 type tracking, dual flash & Slo-mo camera tech. I like this piece comparing Apples & Mercedez S-class products: furbo.org/2013/09/11/sonderklasse/ Great post. Even better link. I've been thinking more on the competitive advantages of 64 bit. I'm not thinking of what it can do today, but the fact that Apple has it, gives Apple the ability to do whatever its "non-innovating" minds can think of. For the competition to catch up will require two things: an OS, and a processor. Now, while security surrounding the 5C seemed very unApple, security around the 5S (and more importantly its guts) proved to be beyond exceptional. My gut is telling me that Apple intentionally fed hot dogs to the rumor mongers/consumers to misdirect their attention, while keeping the steak under lock and key. Think about it, did anyone ever consider 64 bit as something Apple would introduce? I'll bet neither did Google or Intel. That gives Apple at least an 18 month (2 generations of handset) head start, and that doesn't include the ecosystem (wearable medical/sports accessories).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 10:43:20 GMT -8
FWIW: I think Apple totally nailed the colors on the 5c. Too bad about the absence of black but there's always the 5s. It's all about the blue. That's why Apple chose it for the 5C video. It's the best color, hands down. ...what? Not in China. The color of choice (lucky, good fortune, happiness) is red. Blue is just the opposite.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 10:55:05 GMT -8
Wow, maybe Apple DID successfully double-down on secrecy. You might find this worthwhile reading. The ultimate Screw U to SamsungBravo to Daniel Eran Dilger! Maybe CNBC's ratings wouldn't be declining if they spent more time with Daniel and Horace rather than the clueless like Misek, Blodgett, & Zabinsky. Couldn't help myself, had to post this:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 10:55:24 GMT -8
Dilger occasionally goes off the deep end on other stuff, but this is his element.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 10:56:44 GMT -8
I think once the 5C is out, being so recognizable, there could be an "envy" effect on sales going forward. At a minimum, it will be clear to nearby observers what brand of phone a person is using when they are using the 5C. Cue the "people robbed for being seen with their candy-colored 5C" fear-mongering tripe in a few months...
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Post by tuffett on Sept 14, 2013 11:04:33 GMT -8
Then we have DoCoMo with another 60,000,000 3G subscribers. A recent survey showed that 66% of subscribers leaving DoCoMo did so to get the iPhone. I want to warn everyone that while this is on the whole a positive data point, it should not be misconstrued as assuming that 66% of current DoCoMo subscribers want the iPhone. I interpret it as the people who leave want an iPhone, but the people who stay are happy enough to have stayed this long without an iPhone, and may be more loyal to the Japanese brands on offer. Of course, DoCoMo has been steadily losing customers so is there is iPhone demand but there would also be a healthy core who do not want one. Now that two new iPhones will be available without the hassle of switching carriers, there will no doubt be many iPhones sold on DoCoMo. I'd be pleased with the 40% number - won't rule out higher, but won't expect it either.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2013 11:05:04 GMT -8
On Friday - anyone who is an iPhone that is out of contract can trade in their old phone and upgrade to a new 5c or 5s at a big discount or free in many cases. It should be noted that iPhone contracts are 2 years, and the iPhone 4S launched on October 14, 2011. I know some carriers will let you buy an iPhone before the end of your contract, but only if you stay with them.
WRT pre-orders, nobody here seems to be discussing why, exactly, Apple reports them, instead of actual sales. Perhaps it is obvious to many here, but I think it is worth bringing up (again?) for those who don't follow this stuff quite so religiously. You may recall the long discussion here about how Apple counts sales pursuant to GAAP. Until UPS drops an iPhone off at your house, it doesn't count as a sale (since the trucks might crash and explode, etc.). Due to this rule, most purchasers won't be getting their iPhones until sometime next week, so they won't count as first weekend sales. But "pre-order" is a metric invented by Apple, and not for any 10-Q purposes. Of course the pre-order buys them some more ramp-up time after the announcement, but that doesn't explain why Apple announces the numbers. In other words, the "pre-order," IMO, is a largely, if not purely, marketing exercise. Obvious, but needed to be said out loud, IMO.
Final thought: The blue 5C, as well as the gold and white, are UCLA Bruin colors, not some silly NC colors. DESIGNED IN CALIFORNIA.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 14, 2013 11:10:29 GMT -8
Here in Canada, the 16GB 5c is $599 off contract. Availability is still there for all colours. I'm hoping demand is healthy and Apple just has a huge supply. The 5c is probably much, much quicker to manufacture and with good yields too, both because of the simpler casing and the fact that most of the internals are a year old. Success of the 5c is going to be a huge wild card until we get our first data point.
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