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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 30, 2013 11:26:59 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 30, 2013 11:55:38 GMT -8
You're the first to report it here AFAIK iPad. It's not a good sign though it doesn't _prevent_ AAPL from going higher. It's just a bearish sign.
I remain about as bearish as I've been lately. Trying for the IHS bounce over 400 is a very speculative play, maybe one best tried if the opportunity presents intraday, with a day trade timeframe and tight stops.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 30, 2013 12:39:42 GMT -8
Here's another one... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 30, 2013 13:08:29 GMT -8
iPad, this might be funny, it might not...
Have you ever heard of Fib analysis of comparative lows? Or maybe Fib retraces of suspected measured moves?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 30, 2013 13:28:30 GMT -8
Mav, I don't know what that means. Can you give me an example?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 30, 2013 14:18:02 GMT -8
I know, I'm not sure I do either. But check out the Fib retrace if you think of 382.57-418.90 as an "upwave".
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 3, 2013 10:34:13 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 3, 2013 10:36:23 GMT -8
Wow. MACD-h actually closed positive. That move took less than four days.
No AAPL trades but may look to try something Friday. If conditions look right, and AAPL doesn't leave me behind again...
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 3, 2013 10:59:12 GMT -8
See that last MACD-h "bull trap" ? Watch out for that. One more shove up, and Fast Sto's likely in Overbought territory...and so far, what comes after that hasn't changed...
My WAG for the bulls' best chance is to get some decent retrace first, like 409-ish, then attempt another leg up to the daily SMA-50.
Could buy some time before Fast Sto goes overbought. I'm thinking whenever that happens, it could be another 50+ point drop...
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Post by nathanstevens on Jul 3, 2013 14:47:36 GMT -8
How important would a bullish cross of the SMA 50 and 100 be?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 3, 2013 15:33:55 GMT -8
How important would a bullish cross of the SMA 50 and 100 be? More important is where price is relative to those moving averages -- above or below.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 4, 2013 7:01:14 GMT -8
Am I the only one who looks at the action since 388 and has a feeling that it's not a retrace? The moves after 385 and 388 feel impulsive. And not impulsive within a retrace, but impulsive within an impulse (if that makes any sense).
I'd say I'm now 60/40 that we'll see sub 385 after having been 90/10 last Thursday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 4, 2013 11:33:56 GMT -8
If you're saying this move might have some staying power, I agree.
Micro neutral because of minor intraday weakness/being so close to 420, and I need to get my bearings again even if it ends up costing me. There's still plenty of time to plan a good trade setup between now and 460.
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Post by Mav on Jul 5, 2013 8:39:45 GMT -8
Is that bullish divergence on the daily? Or does it not count because of the distorting effect of the previous big move?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 5, 2013 15:26:23 GMT -8
Is that bullish divergence on the daily? Or does it not count because of the distorting effect of the previous big move? We have the first smidges of a bullish cross... Looks similar to 4/25. Now we wait and see if the follow through is equally similar or not...
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 5, 2013 15:27:10 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 5, 2013 16:30:19 GMT -8
Sorry iPad, wasn't clear.
Red candle, MACD-h still goes up, therefore bullish divergence? Just asking if that's technically the case, to me it doesn't mean much because MACD-h is being powerfully affected by AAPL's recent big move.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 14:30:24 GMT -8
Sorry iPad, wasn't clear. Red candle, MACD-h still goes up, therefore bullish divergence? Just asking if that's technically the case, to me it doesn't mean much because MACD-h is being powerfully affected by AAPL's recent big move. Can you show me on a chart?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART: Over the daily SMA-20 = Bull Territory. Just mind that daily Fast Sto "overbought" indicator, as it's given accurate short signals since November 2012. It works until it doesn't, and all that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 14:50:06 GMT -8
There's the 50-day above at 433 and the 430-ish action area in general. Who knows what kind of time AAPL will have in that region, but we'll see if 422-430 provides a little less resistance.
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 14:52:32 GMT -8
Sorry iPad, wasn't clear. Red candle, MACD-h still goes up, therefore bullish divergence? Just asking if that's technically the case, to me it doesn't mean much because MACD-h is being powerfully affected by AAPL's recent big move. Can you show me on a chart? Here.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 15:56:31 GMT -8
That's hidden bullish divergence!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 16:31:07 GMT -8
That's what I thought it was! ;D
I just didn't know if it's only that way when MACD-h is underwater.
I also didn't know if that was to be "discounted" because you'd expect MACD-h to continue with some upward momentum when the most recent days being averaged in are reflecting such big moves. Which makes today potentially quite important.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 10, 2013 9:21:14 GMT -8
Note Fast Sto. Maybe it's different (than every other time since November 2011). Maybe it's not. AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 10, 2013 9:29:19 GMT -8
Sideways action shouldn't automatically end the run. It could also alleviate the overbought condition too IIRC.
I'm 50/50 whether to be concerned by this or not, so I took risk off the table today.
I finally had a half-decent trade today - GMCR Aug puts! ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 11, 2013 12:39:58 GMT -8
Note Fast Sto. Note EMA-50. Note proximity of SMA-50. AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 11, 2013 12:50:41 GMT -8
No one said getting through 430 was gonna be easy.
I'm certainly not chasing excessively at these levels. (Technically, my current swing trade will be OK at 418 by expiry, so while risky it's not _crazy_ risky.)
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Post by rickag on Jul 12, 2013 5:40:30 GMT -8
Note Fast Sto. Note EMA-50. Note proximity of SMA-50. AAPL DAILY CHART: Not that it means anything but I drew a couple of yellow lines on your chart in the MACD (3,10,0) There seems to be 5 small ascending valleys mixed into 3 larger ascending valleys. Would be interesting to see the correlation between this and EW.
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 9:42:39 GMT -8
Avoiding another H&S looking pattern would be cleaner.
Otherwise AAPL looks to be holding up fine. Until the next brick wall of _monthly_ OpEx.
We'll see how well AAPL can handle its overbought condition through next week, though earnings will make it tough to measure AAPL for a couple weeks, I'm guessing.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 10:38:26 GMT -8
See Fast Sto... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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