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Post by rickag on Jul 12, 2013 5:28:17 GMT -8
Almost to the weekly SMA-20... AAPL WEEKLY CHART: I know I've said it before, but I do love your charts, Thanks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 12, 2013 19:10:34 GMT -8
Aw, thanks, Rick!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 19:13:39 GMT -8
Green candle, green candle, DOOM(tm)?
If we can get through end of July OK enough (>415, maybe?), could be constructive. So much depends on AAPL's price action between now and then.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 21, 2013 10:53:04 GMT -8
Green candle, green candle, DOOM(tm)? If we can get through end of July OK enough (>415, maybe?), could be constructive. So much depends on AAPL's price action between now and then. Green candle, green candle, red candle... but no doom yet. Stay tuned.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 21, 2013 10:53:27 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 10:59:41 GMT -8
That's still the daily chart, iPad.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 21, 2013 11:49:23 GMT -8
Oops!! Thanks, Mav!! ;D AAPL WEEKLY CHART: for real this time!
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Post by capablanca on Jul 26, 2013 16:48:34 GMT -8
As can be seen earlier in this thread the weekly MACD-h divergence caused me to lighten up back at in the $670s. I had no idea we'd see a three-handle. But it is what it is.
Now we are seeing the converse. MACD-h showed bullish divergence in late April. I bought a bit back around 402, but did not fully reload.
Since then, even this week, we have more nice signs on the weekly. We retested the lows at the beginning of this month. Then just this week we have seen a stochastic (10,3,10) cross and have poked our head above the RSI (14) downtrend line. (This RSI line is fuzzy and by itself I'd attach no importance to it.)
Now comes the moment of truth. I consider the 26-week EMA to be a tough river to ford. It is about 446 right now, and if we can close above that level two weeks in a row, I'd get downright giddy.
But a caution: The overall market as represented by the weekly SPX chart is not all that healthy. Though the trend is still intact, risk is increasing. Can Apple return to its bullish ways, if the market stalls? Yes, but it is easier to to paddle with the wind.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 16:53:13 GMT -8
Capa, you are a gem! Thank you for that lovely, insightful post!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 17:30:35 GMT -8
At this point, I'm actually kinda contrarian - I'm almost thinking sector rotation. From the Sector of Everything Else to the AAPL Sector. If you want alpha, securities are still the way to go. And they don't get much cheaper than AAPL, even now. But to borrow a sweet turn of phrase, it's a strong opinion, weakly held. If AAPL decides to trade lockstep with a tanking market, clearly all bets are off.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 2, 2013 17:29:17 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2013 19:02:39 GMT -8
iPad's chart with a little annotation: Held where it needed to in terms of Fast STO. But is that the end to the parallels? I call it a bullish sign. Not definitive, but worth noting.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 3, 2013 15:54:05 GMT -8
Weekly chart is beautiful. As good as it could possibly be right now. You cannot draw a single downtrend line that would enclose the current price. First time that's been true.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 3, 2013 19:41:07 GMT -8
Doc, excellent point re: trendlines. Mav, I really liked the parallel at first glance. Then I looked a bit closer, and there is just one thing I want to point out that could be nothing... but then again may be something... Fast Sto and the second (middle) MACD-h are showing hidden bearish divergence. In the previous 2009-2010 comparison, there's no divergence (hidden or otherwise) on the way up. That said, while this may be a "heads up," I think we need to stick with levels and trendlines. Let price confirm or invalidate our theses one way or another. Right now, pure price action (not volume, etc.) is bullish until proven otherwise by a decisive loss of key levels. Used a wide-angle lens for this shot... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 3, 2013 21:54:53 GMT -8
Could you run that by me again? Or maybe clarify the annotations?
I'm not saying the two periods are alike - if anything the most recent downtrend makes the least sense soI wouldn't be a whit surprised if it's still giving off weird readings somewhere.
Focusing on the one truth - price - the weekly and daily still look quite good.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 15:32:47 GMT -8
Mav, disregard aforementioned because it's now invalidated. Read: bullish!
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 15:33:15 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 9, 2013 15:43:30 GMT -8
Just a little "could be nothing, could be something" note... Months ago Doc mentioned this possibility on the horizon: Non-div adjusted weekly SMA-50 crossed a smidge below weekly SMA-100. I have to go check the div-adjusted...
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 9, 2013 15:46:21 GMT -8
Div-adjusted, kissing but no cross yet... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 9, 2013 15:48:09 GMT -8
I say "meaningless" because of this hugely "exaggerated" move. For now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 9, 2013 16:04:53 GMT -8
Well, the last time they crossed, there was only One More retest of the lows, then that downtrend from hell was officially over.
*cough* gap *cough*
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 9, 2013 16:07:26 GMT -8
Oh lord
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Post by capablanca on Aug 10, 2013 17:04:19 GMT -8
I tried not to look at iPad's charts before writing this, but confess that I did peek briefly last evening. I do want to study them in detail, but I like to organize my thoughts on my weekly chart without any outside influence. Fortunately, I don't recall much of what I saw. :-)
I am very much pleased that we closed the week above the 26-week EMA despite the late-week weakness. The last time we crossed this barrier on the way up was in December of 2011 in the mid-to-high 300s. The last cross going down was last Halloween in the high 500s. I do not see a single instance in the last five years where this EMA was crossed for two weeks and then did not stay there for many months. What is more the two forementioned crosses led to large moves. This 26-week EMA also looks to be turning up after 10 months of falling.
Several other noteworthy positives this week: The MACD-h (12,26,9) bar this week was higher than the bar at the late-May short-term high. Likewise the RSI(14) level is higher. The slow Stochastic (10,3,10) has just turned up at around the 55 level; the last two times it turned up while in this neighborhood were at 400 on its way to 600, and 600 on its way to 700.
All in all, I could see 550 yet this year. The big cloud hanging over us is that the overall market, as represented by the S&P, looks awful to me. Many possible triggers of a "crash" loom; just one to ponder is a Fed changing course under the new King or Queen.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 12, 2013 13:28:45 GMT -8
Thanks so much, Capa!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 12, 2013 13:29:19 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 13, 2013 13:45:22 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 13, 2013 14:03:14 GMT -8
Look at that Fast STO.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 13, 2013 14:14:52 GMT -8
Time to embed at the NORTH pole again!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 13, 2013 14:26:00 GMT -8
Carl Icahn helped make my Fast STO comparison look awesome. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 13, 2013 15:40:14 GMT -8
INDEED!!!!!
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