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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 3, 2013 13:52:41 GMT -8
No guesses huh. My favorite indicator the past few months may be hinting at something. But it might take a month or two to be sure. Fast Sto closer to Wow Zone??? Lower BB hook???
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 3, 2013 13:53:29 GMT -8
BULLISH CROSS ALERT!!! WEEKLY EMA-13 and SMA-20!!! AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 3, 2013 14:25:51 GMT -8
Fast STO, of course. ;D Until it isn't. It's on an amazing trajectory, which is why it's hard for me to consider the possibility of months of choppy rangebound-ish behavior/gradual price increase during consolidation....as of now. So is that bullish cross, if it holds, a particularly constructive one as bullish crosses go?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 16:04:36 GMT -8
I'm a little concerned that there's an impending death cross of the SMA50 and SMA100 on the weekly. Without good movement up, it looks like it will happen in the next 6-8 weeks.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 16:07:00 GMT -8
So is that bullish cross, if it holds, a particularly constructive one as bullish crosses go? Yes. It's very sensitive, but not very specific. Or in other words, it happens very early in a bull swing, but may just be a head fake. A bullish cross of the SMA20 and SMA50 would be a better indicator of a bull run.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 9, 2013 9:49:32 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 8:51:04 GMT -8
Random weekly chart observations:
SMA-200, a possible downside magnet? Will probably be at/above the trend low of 381-ish soon.
MACD-h still says uptrend. Doesn't feel that way, heh.
Btw iPad, how much can one expect a BB boundary to "dynamically" change on the weekly during a week? I ask because it LOOKS like AAPL doesn't really breach the lower BB even in downtrend lately, but IIRC, BBs are a moving target. At this point my WAG is that AAPL simply follows the lower BB lower for the next couple weeks at least.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 22, 2013 15:07:20 GMT -8
Random weekly chart observations: SMA-200, a possible downside magnet? Will probably be at/above the trend low of 381-ish soon. MACD-h still says uptrend. Doesn't feel that way, heh. Btw iPad, how much can one expect a BB boundary to "dynamically" change on the weekly during a week? I ask because it LOOKS like AAPL doesn't really breach the lower BB even in downtrend lately, but IIRC, BBs are a moving target. At this point my WAG is that AAPL simply follows the lower BB lower for the next couple weeks at least. Mav, good observations! RE: the Bollinger bands. On the weekly chart, we tend to retrace/consolidate after touching the lower BB, currently at 399.65 (div adjusted). On the daily chart, while we also tend to retrace/consolidate after falling out of it, we can also "ride" it. The lower weekly BB is just starting to curl outward in range expansion, and the weekly SMA-200 sure doesn't look too far from here. I'm thinking we're going to want to see the daily upper BB hooking again -- right now it's pointing to the sky in range expansion, and that expansion's currently southbound.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 22, 2013 15:08:07 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 15:09:51 GMT -8
I'll answer my own question on weekly BBs later next week. I'm not sure it makes much of a difference, but I'll be tracking it day by day.
Remind me why a daily upper BB hook in a downtrend is good again? I'd prefer a lower BB hook at this point.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 22, 2013 15:15:42 GMT -8
I'll answer my own question on weekly BBs later next week. I'm not sure it makes much of a difference, but I'll be tracking it day by day. Remind me why a daily upper BB hook in a downtrend is good again? I'd prefer a lower BB hook at this point. Please report back on your weekly BB study! Upper BB hook suggests bottoming. Lower BB hook suggests topping.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 15:16:24 GMT -8
So a lower BB hook in a downtrend means...nothing?
Sheesh, the only BB "rule of thumb" I get is the "upper BB hook in uptrend" one.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 22, 2013 15:20:52 GMT -8
So a lower BB hook in a downtrend means...nothing? Sheesh, the only BB "rule of thumb" I get is the "upper BB hook in uptrend" one. Well, I think in a downtrend, the upper BB will hook before the lower BB to suggest moving from expansion to contraction. Mav, come over to the Daily Chart thread... it's easier to see over there... More examples...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 11:06:01 GMT -8
Weekly AAPL BB Study, Day 1: 397.45 - 433.44 - 469.44
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 24, 2013 14:38:00 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 14:40:02 GMT -8
There's my proof right there. Weekly BBs are "dynamic", I s'pose.
The trend certainly seems to indicate that a retest of 381 and a meeting with the SMA-200 isn't too far around the corner, absent the unexpected.
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 15:07:10 GMT -8
Fast STO: On the one hand...OMG, this is horrific.
OTOH...compare to '09. Of course, I won't trade based on the Fast STO, but it's "hinting" at either near-term price stability, or something even more insane than Sep '08-Mar '09 or so. Count nothing out, but AAPL 300 is still _mildly_ out there, if for no other reason than the lower AAPL goes, the more insane it all gets (from buyback opportunities to yield rates to shareholder lawsuits to share split possibilities to even talk of going private).
But like I said. Level by level, and if I had to guess, present trajectory is new trend lows under 381.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 28, 2013 16:05:01 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 16:37:49 GMT -8
Are you seeing what I'm seeing, iPad? Wow. And by wow, I mean And yet, there's the upper BB hook. Hmm.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 28, 2013 21:32:31 GMT -8
Lower BB curling down?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 22:10:37 GMT -8
Fast STO rejection. That didn't even happen in 2008-09!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 3, 2013 11:56:50 GMT -8
MACD-h classic setting trying very hard not to make a bearish cross. Fast Sto popped out of oversold territory. EMA-13 / SMA-20 in the 430-ish region...target? SMA-200 approaching 381. AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 5, 2013 15:27:45 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 14:31:29 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 14:55:20 GMT -8
IF a lot of things go right, including earnings, these past couple weeks on the weekly may have been when the bears first started thinking, "uh oh". ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 15:38:56 GMT -8
Look on this weekly from FSC. Doesn't it look like we found support at weekly SMA-200, even though we were a tad shy when it happened? It's been rising, so now it looks as though we were closer than it seemed at the time. Also, look at the previous bounces from support -- two green candles, then doom.
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 15:45:48 GMT -8
Oh, THANKS, iPad. Now I'm all kinds of scared. ;D
But do note - in only one of those other times were we in intermediate uptrend (at least in terms of MACD-h).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 15:49:13 GMT -8
That is an EXCELLENT point!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 11, 2013 12:38:50 GMT -8
Almost to the weekly SMA-20... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 11, 2013 12:52:12 GMT -8
Ah, the joy of mid-channel.
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