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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 3, 2013 13:42:50 GMT -8
Lower BB hook ---> consolidation
Suggests new highs unlikely for a while.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 15:22:00 GMT -8
Suggests, maybe, but I think the iPhone story has a good chance of affecting the AAPL narrative within the next 2-6 weeks. Maybe even next week if China Mobile is announced. Not trading the theory yet, but I'm watching fairly closely by my low standards.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 5, 2013 12:10:09 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 10, 2013 16:30:26 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by capablanca on Sept 11, 2013 9:58:30 GMT -8
I'll be happy if we close above 460 on Friday; 465 would be even better. That is the 26-week EMA that I am watching.
I bought DEC 480/500 BCS this morning for $6.51 using the profits from the naked SEP 500 calls I sold last Friday. (I guess I am counting chickens before they are hatched; we could be above 500 by next Friday, I suppose.) So I am double short the 500s for 7 more days.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 13:31:21 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by capablanca on Sept 14, 2013 8:04:27 GMT -8
"I liked 465 a whole lot better on the way UP... " - from the Intraday thread.
We should benefit from testing the 26-week EMA if indeed it holds. This level is important by my methods. A couple more weeks should tell.
For now I still like our chances of $550 by year end.
Fresh in my mind is how all the experts and analysts hated the 4s.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 14, 2013 11:29:06 GMT -8
Sitting right on the weekly EMA-13 @ 463.68 (dividend-adjusted). Resistance at SMA-50. First tests of key support / resistance *usually* hold, then get retested. Resistance held at SMA-50. Support held (so far) at EMA-13. Now, let's see which is retested first -- and which breaks first. Note the comparison areas blocked with vertical red lines -- similarities in price pattern, Fast Sto and MACD/MACD-h. AAPL WEEKLY CHART: EDIT: I added Capa's EMA-26 (thanks, Capa!), currently 459.31, div-adjusted, which is very close to EMA-20, currently 458.69.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 16, 2013 15:06:08 GMT -8
Sitting on the weekly SMA-20 / middle BB here... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by capablanca on Sept 19, 2013 9:14:55 GMT -8
As I write this, (1:00pm EDT), we are right at $475. A weekly close at this level would warm my heart at least through the weekend.
It might also lead to fatter wallets. $550 still my target for 12/2013 if this level holds.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2013 13:26:17 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 13:27:05 GMT -8
The bounce from the SMA-20 weekly is very helpful intermediate-term.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2013 13:27:55 GMT -8
The bounce from the SMA-20 weekly is very helpful intermediate-term. VERY. Looking bull flaggy... And similarities with coming off that 2009 bottom...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 13:28:49 GMT -8
Well, it was looking _very_ bull flag-like until recently. I'd call 465-470ish a victory for the week, then Monday is a huge day for sentiment.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2013 13:30:47 GMT -8
Look at the potential measured move on that thing...
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Post by capablanca on Sept 24, 2013 9:48:07 GMT -8
The current conditions remind me somewhat of the latter half of August 2011.
Of course, I remind myself that what works in bull markets does not translate to bear markets. Or in reversals either for that matter.
Still optimistic regarding AAPL, but I have recently STO bear vertical call spreads on the SPY, along with BTO puts on SPY. The VIX is very low and the slow stochastic (weekly) just turned up.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2013 20:16:32 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 20:51:01 GMT -8
This is why I like price action over stuff like divergences. Easier to follow.
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Post by mace on Oct 27, 2013 15:57:21 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART: So is AAPL at similar point like May 2009 (rally for years to $900-$1800(with $150B buyback) or something else.
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 27, 2013 17:43:44 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART: So is AAPL at similar point like May 2009 (rally for years to $900-$1800(with $150B buyback) or something else. I really like the look of the 5 yr monthly chart.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 1, 2013 21:49:42 GMT -8
After 6 straight up-weeks, we had a sell the news rest-stop this week. Or at least that is my hope.
I wanted to see a close above, or at least close to, 518. We got it. I still stand by my forecast of 550 by year's end.
AAPL MACD-h could be higher in a perfect world.
I had some more naked 500 weekly puts expire yesterday. Just could not resist the 68% IV on the strength Monday morning. Also when we recently got to 530, I was able to convert some JAN15 600 calls into a 600-650 BCS while extracting my entire purchase price. So now it's head I win, tails it doesn't count.
My SPY shorts are sucking up some of my AAPL profits. Thanks to the Fed I suppose. I am too stubborn; AAPL should not be selling at a PE nearly 50% less than the SPX.
I like the new products and pricing. I am not so happy about the delays for the new iPad mini. I wish I could justify the need for a MacPro; what a magnificent computer!
Excuse the ramble; I don't post much these days.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2013 7:01:48 GMT -8
I still stand by my forecast of 550 by year's end. That's a good bet. There's nothing wrong with this chart right now. It's fine to bump your head on the upper BB on the weekly and daily and come back down a little. Just more room to run in the future. I think we'll get a high of 550-570 before year's end.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2013 9:48:22 GMT -8
After 6 straight up-weeks, we had a sell the news rest-stop this week. Or at least that is my hope. I wanted to see a close above, or at least close to, 518. We got it. I still stand by my forecast of 550 by year's end. AAPL MACD-h could be higher in a perfect world. I had some more naked 500 weekly puts expire yesterday. Just could not resist the 68% IV on the strength Monday morning. Also when we recently got to 530, I was able to convert some JAN15 600 calls into a 600-650 BCS while extracting my entire purchase price. So now it's head I win, tails it doesn't count. Capa, always a pleasure to read your posts! Big congrats on legging into a zero cost 50-width spread -- that is outstanding!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2013 9:51:36 GMT -8
I still stand by my forecast of 550 by year's end. That's a good bet. There's nothing wrong with this chart right now. It's fine to bump your head on the upper BB on the weekly and daily and come back down a little. Just more room to run in the future. I think we'll get a high of 550-570 before year's end. If not for that breakout failure candle, I'd say the price action remains constructive (though my WAG is bulls need a spark before the 510s to prevent further retrace). Right now I'm slightly micro bearish, but waiting it out...right now I've committed to swing trade mode and slowing it down some, even though it might be the totally wrong way to go.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2013 9:57:53 GMT -8
There's nothing wrong with this chart right now. It's fine to bump your head on the upper BB on the weekly and daily and come back down a little. Just more room to run in the future. I think we'll get a high of 550-570 before year's end. I'm thinking it's consolidation time. Not sure on the timeframe for 550-570. In the last three years, we didn't foray too far into a higher range during the period between OCT and JAN earnings. Then again, neither did we have a year-long crash preceding those previous three OCT earnings. So, who knows...?
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Post by capablanca on Nov 26, 2013 19:32:19 GMT -8
I suppose that this level (530+) is the focus for many chart watchers after today's nice bump. Staying above that would please me, but I'll be OK with this week if we can end it above 522.
MACD-h still a bit worrisome. But the rest of the weekly chart looks fine. Still looking for 550 by year end.
Caveat: I should not be peeking mid-week like this.
(Ed: spelling)
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Post by capablanca on Nov 29, 2013 20:23:59 GMT -8
Fine week. My target from last summer is achieved a month early. The weekly chart still looks good. RSI and Sto look fine. MACD-h is OK.
Now I'd like to see us stay above 535-540 for two weeks and end the year above 550.
But despite the nice action, because my objective is reached, I am closing out my January and February BCS spreads. Though I'll likely put something on (bull or bear) when IV pops pre-earnings. I am keeping my longer term options and all my underlying.
I believe.
P.S. This Judge Cole in the e-Books case is worrisome. She seems to be out of control. There is something here we don't know, otherwise her vendetta does not make sense.
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Post by mace on Nov 29, 2013 22:03:11 GMT -8
But despite the nice action, because my objective is reached, I am closing out my January and February BCS spreads Wise. AAPL would either rocket to $600 by year end or decline from here to $500. Next two weeks would tell us the direction.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 1, 2013 14:01:14 GMT -8
But despite the nice action, because my objective is reached, I am closing out my January and February BCS spreads Wise. AAPL would either rocket to $600 by year end or decline from here to $500. Next two weeks would tell us the direction. I think we may see a combination of both over the next 6 months or so. To $600 then back to $500.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 12:40:32 GMT -8
Depends on calculations and whether "you believe in it" I guess, but this marks the second week AAPL's stayed above my tinfoil (linear) "mega macro" trendline. Might put the chart _after_ the market close just to be safe.
I tried a log scale trendline before and it just didn't work nearly as well, multi-month downtrend aside.
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