Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2015 2:34:27 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on May 1, 2015 3:07:52 GMT -8
Ladies and gentlemen: let the divvy lemming rush begin!!
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Post by phoebear611 on May 1, 2015 3:14:20 GMT -8
In answer to Mace's question yesterday on EW: The more negative views are: the stock still may reach that $122 number ($121.50 target to be exact) for a C-wave off Monday's high, but should see an interim bounce as wave iv of C before reaching there however, the target of $143 is still intact as this is still seen as a correction in an uptrend. The more positive one's views: the $125 call wall had the affect and they stepped in to nibble at $126 yesterday and will be buying a bit today as well
Clearly the debate here seems to lie if the stock is done in its correction at the $122 or $125ish area before moving higher. I hope so. My only concern is the larger market because AAPL seems to be a large part of many of these ETFs and so it also gets whipped around a lot when they get dumped. It's not so insulated these days if there is a broad market sell off. That being said....having bought market dips throughout the year has paid off favorably. So let's see how the day plays out but I'm feeling positive here. Maybe by next week Icahn will be out with his spreadsheet as well pounding the table on the insanity of the cheap share price. Who knows. It's been a very frustrating week for all of us - no one expected this stock to behave like this after delivering the performance it did - and more. Truly demoralizing. But hey - didn't Coach Lombardi tell us that it's not about whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up! GET UP PEOPLE! Let's end the week strong!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2015 3:19:18 GMT -8
Thanks Coach.
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Post by macwire on May 1, 2015 4:00:04 GMT -8
A week to forget for sure. Cheers as always to the longs
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Post by rob_london on May 1, 2015 4:32:49 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on May 1, 2015 4:38:58 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2015 5:40:10 GMT -8
Has the curse been broken?
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Post by Apple II+ on May 1, 2015 5:50:51 GMT -8
dividend recap:
$0.52 per share ex-div 5/7/2015 record 5/11/2015 payable 5/14/2015
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Post by firestorm on May 1, 2015 6:17:10 GMT -8
This week Lucy pulled the football away from Charlie Brown once again. Will he ever learn or does hope spring eternal?
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Post by nagrani on May 1, 2015 6:20:23 GMT -8
Apple should not be priced here. It's fair value is much higher. Smoke em if u got em
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Post by nagrani on May 1, 2015 6:21:44 GMT -8
The watch will sell like hot cakes in China. I've been using it for 1 week and it's changing behavior. Can only imagine what it will do in China.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2015 6:23:56 GMT -8
This clearly seems like Apple dropping by to buy some.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 6:45:31 GMT -8
I agree with this on MacDailyNews:
“When investors buy a stock, they expect that company to post great revenue and great earnings every quarter. That, in turn, will fuel the analysts to raise estimates and shares will head higher,” Scott Rutt reports for TheStreet. “The company can then further reward shareholders with big dividends and stock buybacks.” “At least, that’s the way its supposed to work. But in the case of Apple, the company did all of those things and shares have fallen in a straight line ever since,” Rutt reports. “Cramer told viewers that perhaps tomorrow will be the day that Apple can once again be bought based on its stellar, long-term story.”
Read more in the full article here.
“Investors buy stocks because they want the companies to fare well in earnings. When the numbers are better than analyst expectations, they raise the estimates. On top of that, if you get a dividend boost and a juicy buy-back, there’s nothing like it,” Mohit Manghnani reports for Seeking Alpha. “If the stock is at a discount relative to the average stock in the S&P500, it’s like icing on the cake.”
“Apple had all of these things and it still went down by approximately 4%. If a stock like Apple cannot go higher, then the entire rationale of buying stocks flips on its head,” Manghnani reports. “‘Ever since we swallowed the Apple, the whole race of stocks seems cursed,’ said Cramer. He added that if the market does not care for the fundamentals of the biggest company, then it is bad news.”
“If Apple’s positive earnings can be skewed as negative news, then what can propel stocks?” Manghnani reports. “According to Cramer, once oil stops going up, and there is seller fatigue, along with a new winner like a bank or REIT, then the market can bounce back. Or, if Apple can rise from the ground, that will be positive for the entire market. ‘Oddly enough, though, I think that’s the most likely scenario. I think Apple should be bought here,’ said Cramer. He added that it is always a good time to buy a high-quality stock with strong fundamentals like Apple.”
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on May 1, 2015 6:52:07 GMT -8
Apple should not be priced here. It's fair value is much higher. When was the last time AAPL was at it's fair value? It's been ages even if just looking at P/E compared to similar growth companies. Start including cash, and it's not even close. IMO huge buybacks are about the only way for Apple to get people to take their cash horde seriously. There's a lot of things at work. I laid out something like 8-10 in a post once, including things like large market cap and concentrated portfolio. There's always reasons given, and though we can say the reasons have little or no basis, the truth is that over the long term (frankly it's been this way (discount to comparables) for at least a decade IMO) there's consistently been a discount. Some reasons change....we now have the "the market cap is so large, how can they keep growing" reason, and no longer have the "SJ could be hit by a bus", though that led to the "SJ is gone, all will go to heck". But "fair value"? This last crash made me lose all hope of that with Apple, and now I just try to focus on what range the market will likely value the stock. A year from now, it should be valued higher. But what will go on week by week or day by day? That's much harder to predict, but you can be ready to take advantage of it if a good opportunity comes up.
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Post by nagrani on May 1, 2015 7:09:35 GMT -8
Keep in mind Mercel - aka maxpain - said there is a big surprise in store for us on mon. Cannot wait
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Post by nathanstevens on May 1, 2015 8:01:00 GMT -8
This clearly seems like Apple dropping by to buy some. From page 49 of the 10-Q: Apple paid an average of 126.07 during Feb and 126.35 during March. Clearly they think that the current price is a deal.
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2015 8:05:06 GMT -8
Keep in mind Mercel - aka maxpain - said there is a big surprise in store for us on mon. Cannot wait 10 to 1 it's an event announcement.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 8:18:42 GMT -8
Keep in mind Mercel - aka maxpain - said there is a big surprise in store for us on mon. Cannot wait 10 to 1 it's an event announcement. That's funny. No, my surprise is tiny, so minuscule you'll need an electron microscope. But, sometimes, even small things lead to bigger things.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 1, 2015 8:27:02 GMT -8
I can take the ups and downs of the stock price. Whether I look at the long term gains, or whether I remind myself that the difference the fluctuations have on my portfolio are not significant in terms of life decisions, either way I can take it. What drives me nuts and seems to affect many of us is the cognitive dissonance associated with the low P/E on a company that continues to show such growth. It just does not make sense and yet it doesn't change. I think that is part of the reason I rail against the Law of Large Idiocy and other explanations. If you are struggling with this as well, I offer this insight:
The P/E multiple is a reflection of the anticipated growth of the company. The growth of the company consists of the growth of it's current business (let me call this "business growth") and the growth afforded by new opportunities (let's call this "opportunity growth"). As a company gets larger, just the sheer size opens up opportunities that did not exist when they were smaller. To many, Apple's size means that there are few new opportunities that would be presented by additional growth. Ask yourself what new opportunities are available when you move from $150B in cash to $200B in cash. Does that make as much of a difference as moving from $25B to $75B?
Investors can look at the current price, or look at the first derivative of the price, i.e. the growth rate. but I am sure that the second derivative gets attention too. The rate of change in growth rate and its inflection points seem to be powerful components of market sentiment. Thus, a leveling off of opportunity growth due to size might justify a flatter P/E in some minds
When we look at P/E in terms of business growth none of this LOLN BS makes sense. When we look at the P/E in terms of the second component, there may be a rational explanation for the behavior. Of course, the degree of importance attached to these factors is subject to the subjective values of the investors so fear and greed are still in play.
The problem for most analysts seems to come from a confusion between the meaning of the first and second derivative. When they think the second derivative is going to a zero they forget that it can go to zero with any rate of change, thus we see a constant 20% growth rate being treated like a zero growth rate. This is exactly what happened in the fall from 700 to 400.
The second problem is that I think few of them have a quantitative basis for combining the two factors. They focus on the opportunity growth, which is very subjective and ignore the business growth.
I don't think I have said anything really new here, it just helps me to think through it is I write it and then I figure why not post? If it helps with the cognitive dissonance and gets you through the weekend, so much the better.
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Post by nathanstevens on May 1, 2015 8:30:16 GMT -8
I've never really bothered to monitor my heart rate. I now have all of my waking heart rate data since about 10am on Monday morning. It's automatic and unobtrusive. Health Kit and Research Kit will be much bigger than expected.
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2015 9:10:49 GMT -8
.......... When we look at P/E in terms of business growth none of this LOLN BS makes sense. When we look at the P/E in terms of the second component, there may be a rational explanation for the behavior. Of course, the degree of importance attached to these factors is subject to the subjective values of the investors so fear and greed are still in play. ...... Good post. It does seem that the cognitive dissonance with AAPL has been in place for a long time. Horace Dediu even mentioned AAPL's perpetual beleaguered state in one of his articles. Anyone who has held AAPL any length of time has been though a lot of cognitive dissonance. Fortunately, I never really followed my AAPL very much until the last few years, as I get older and closer to retirement I began following the stock price, maybe I should revert to my old pathology and ignore it. side note: it's has been a very long 2 weeks for me, resulting in my being tired, worn down and brain not functioning properly. So, it didn't dawn on me immediately what LOLN stood for, as such I googleddid an internet (DuckDuckGo) search and found that in the urban dictionary it means "laughing out loud naked". Kind of brings a new meaning to your sentence. LOL
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on May 1, 2015 9:14:13 GMT -8
So the 125 calls and puts switched, the calls now being higher, 128,329-121,168. But a mere 7K calls are going to make a difference?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 9:15:51 GMT -8
A snap of my wrist, all dressed up and lots of places to go!
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Post by mace on May 1, 2015 9:22:26 GMT -8
Ladies and gentlemen: let the divvy lemming rush begin!! Your timing is perfect, next time, please message me before you publish, so I can follow . I know TA/EW but my timing sucks... knowing a tool well doesn't mean one can trade well... personally I know of some1 who doesn't understand options and TA well but he rocks in trading... similar logic that scoring a lot of As in schools doesn't mean can succeed in career... that would be me
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Post by mace on May 1, 2015 9:24:08 GMT -8
A snap of my wrist, all dressed up and lots of places to go! There is something wrong with the picture. The hand is so ... u...g... l... y
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Post by hamourabi on May 1, 2015 9:25:02 GMT -8
So the 125 calls and puts switched, the calls now being higher, 128,329-121,168. But a mere 7K calls are going to make a difference? My understanding is that option sellers (call and put) will gain with close @ $125 and have more power on AAPL price than buyers. I really hope that for once it won't work this way !
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Post by mace on May 1, 2015 9:31:10 GMT -8
In answer to Mace's question yesterday on EW: The more negative views are: the stock still may reach that $122 number ($121.50 target to be exact) for a C-wave off Monday's high, but should see an interim bounce as wave iv of C before reaching there however, the target of $143 is still intact as this is still seen as a correction in an uptrend. The more positive one's views: the $125 call wall had the affect and they stepped in to nibble at $126 yesterday and will be buying a bit today as well Thank you for the update. $124.58 low yesterday is higher than the $124.46, so there is hope that wave 5.v.(2) completed in $124.58 is correct. There is a big bullish divergence over the past three days in the five minutes chart, so expect the usual Monday (aka nagrani, the first discoverer of the phenomenon) pop... how high would it goes? Above $131.74, should be in 5.v.(3), otherwise 5.iv.B, soon C to $121.50.
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Post by mace on May 1, 2015 9:36:24 GMT -8
...My only concern is the larger market because AAPL seems to be a large part of many of these ETFs and so it also gets whipped around a lot when they get dumped... I hate ETF... essentially a crude investment instrument invented for the lazy.
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Post by mace on May 1, 2015 9:40:35 GMT -8
The watch will sell like hot cakes in China. I've been using it for 1 week and it's changing behavior. Can only imagine what it will do in China. My wife is wearing the Watch Stainless Steel with a Milanese Loop band... it looks way more elegant than the photo on website... she loves it a lot... battery at the end of the day is about 30-40%... charge every night. Well, still waiting for the Space Gray Watch, estimate delivery is still June.
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