Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 19, 2015 3:43:22 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Sept 19, 2015 5:02:07 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity?
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Post by rezonate on Sept 19, 2015 5:45:36 GMT -8
Cracked a bottle of 2003 merlot from Long Island's Palmer Vineyard last night. Back when it was bottled, AAPL closed at an adjusted $1.53 for the week. The vintage won several awards and helped put Long Island on the wine map, but it has not aged as well as AAPL over the intervening 12 years. Kinda dry and acidic for my taste now. More like something from southern Arizona's Caduceus Cellars.
I'm more into a Cabernet Sauvignon, which to me is multi-faceted, kinda like AAPL now. If you are a "value" investor, you can BTFD and let it ride. If you are a tech investor you're kinda getting a mutual fund of small tech startups, as Apple buys them up. If you trade, you can work the swings based on fairly well-worn patterns. And if you just want a quarterly dividend check, well then just back up the truck and hang out at your villa in the south of Spain or wherever.
This morning I was discussing AAPL with my mother, who has to listen to my Dad complaining (daily) about "I shoulda sold it when it was 133, so I could buy back in now." I told her about having $30,000 in shares in 2007, but selling it all for a house down payment. If I had let it ride, I would have 1,400 shares today, for a $128,000 profit vs a $90,000 loss on the house. AND, a quarterly check for $700. Such is life.
This is why we always send "cheers to the longs." Enjoy the run. And the wine.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 19, 2015 7:04:22 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? I don't think that's it, firestorm. I think there's a correlation between how AAPL is faring in the markets and people's interest in commenting. It's kind of like not looking at your brokerage accounts when everything is down - it's just not as much fun to ponder. Members of this forum tend to have enough interest in and info on Apple - and see how it's unfairly treated as the market's pin cushion/FUD focal point - not to stay invested in AAPL, knowing well that someday (soonish) the share price will more properly reflect the company's underlying value - at least in as far as is typical of late - to a PE of 15-16. Or I could be full of shit, and investor fatigue from the unrelenting cognitive dissonance of owning the world's best company that gets the least respect has taken its toll and our members have moved on ...but I doubt it. One needs long-term patience to outlast the markets' "investors" these days, as now people think a long-term hold = six months or less.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 19, 2015 8:10:03 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? I think the reason is the harder times for AAPL to continue growing. It is no longer so much about gadgets, as it is Apple's forays into other areas where there is vested competition. Apple Pay, streaming music, TV, the enterprise, etc. The road to success will not be easy.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 19, 2015 8:28:30 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? I think the reason is the harder times for AAPL to continue growing. It is no longer so much about gadgets, as it is Apple's forays into other areas where there is vested competition. Apple Pay, streaming music, TV, the enterprise, etc. The road to success will not be easy. The road to success was never easy.
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Post by sponge on Sept 19, 2015 8:34:12 GMT -8
Too many bullies have pushed everyone out. Opinions expressed turn into personal attacks.
My view is that we are compressing for the mother of all rockets. This reminds me of summer of 2013. As the company indicated they were on the right track and still growing, the stock was going down. It took Carl Ichan to get the party started. I recall well while hiking in the Grand Canyon with no coverage, I got a signal at the top to see our stock shoot up like a rocket. The split announcement in Spring of 2014 added more fuel. We should double from 75 the split announcement price. Historically we do so about 18 months later. This time the split made us a big target for day traders and options, therefore we are more linked to a cash machine that is used when the market corrects. So we wait.
But Apple has given us three solid quarters and is about to give us two more. Yet we are at the same place 12 months later. This rocket may take off in mid Nov or late April.
The company has never been stronger and is once again poised for robust eps growth. They are buying back like crazy and those who are patient will be rewarded.
We now must wait 3-5 years for big stock moves. This requires great patience and makes even long term options very risky. Buying in the money calls gives you the same return as buying on margin. However if one looks at 5 and 10 year increments, we should be ecstatic with our returns.
We corrected yesterday as I expected but playmakers kept us well above 110. I am confident we will do well next week and then the week after before we correct again. We are slowly grinding up, but be ready for the rocket to take off in the next 6-8 months. I foresee a 20-50% move. Consider the last 30 days the same way as July 2013.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 19, 2015 8:35:31 GMT -8
There may be some fatigue, at least I feel it. When the market inexplicably ignored second quarter earnings it broke any faith that I had in Apple investors. I have never lost faith in the company, I know it will continue to do well. But the price of the stock is based on the perception of its future price and that perception is flawed. So instead of being able to look at fundamentals or technology or competition, short term investing requires that we anticipate the irrational behavior of the lemmings. This is especially surprising when we know that a large part of the activity is driven by algorithms. Who would every program a computer to ignore positive results? We cannot help the desire to find order. We jump from one theory to another, even looking for order in the stock movement patterns without regard to underlying causes. But when even those patterns fail, what is there left to talk about? How many times can we write a post that says essentially WTF? I am no different in my quest for order, even though I realize that what I am doing is like looking at clouds and saying "Hey, that looks like a dog!" It is just the way that we are wired. My Ph.D is in System Science (yes, and you can call me Dr. Bud from now on ) so that affects the way that I look at things. I am interested in the behavior of dynamic systems and this looks very much like a chaotic system. That does not mean it is random. It means that the point of equilibrium moves on a bounded region, but is mathematically unpredictable. Weather is often modeled in this way. Chaotic systems are enticing because there is enough order to tempt us into trying to predict and an internal characteristic that guarantees that we will fail. My gut tells me that part of the behavior of Apple is due to it's sheer size. I suspect that it has a leveraged influence that creates feedback loops that prevent it from moving like a normal stock. I cannot test this without a valid simulation, hence the math question previously. All this to say that the limited posts may be just a consequence of frustration. I hope it picks up. The board gave me the courage to do my mortgage deal that has worked out well, and has given me the confidence to start selling both calls and puts. I would love to see Gregg and LovemyiPad come back, but this is still the first place I come to when i have my coffee in the morning. Lets keep it alive.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 19, 2015 8:43:59 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? I feel like I have been saying the same thing for the past six months, and I suspect members must be getting tired of that. Also, no need to point out the same old themes in the ongoing FUD storm. The one thing that I have learned over the past few years is that I have no idea what the correlation is between Apple performance and AAPL performance, so no need to bore everyone with my conjectures. Very happy with my iOS 9 updates to my 5S and iPad Air 2, but just plugged the iPhone into my iMac and iTunes asked me if I wanted to download iOS 9 and install it on my iPhone. Sigh. Very excited about the next three months for Apple; no idea about AAPL.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 19, 2015 8:45:44 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? I think the reason is the harder times for AAPL to continue growing. It is no longer so much about gadgets, as it is Apple's forays into other areas where there is vested competition. Apple Pay, streaming music, TV, the enterprise, etc. The road to success will not be easy. One could just as easily be encouraged to see Apple branch out beyond hardware and (the "over-relied upon") iPhone into creating the best pay system so far, a better TV streamer, more compelling enterprise hardware and software and re-thinking music to stay competitive.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 19, 2015 9:02:24 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? Thanks for getting the conversations started, firestorm! :-)
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Post by nagrani on Sept 19, 2015 10:47:37 GMT -8
Bud777 - you should look into Elliottwave theory
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Post by firestorm on Sept 19, 2015 11:56:26 GMT -8
This is sad to have so few people commenting these days. Is everyone giving up on AAPL as a special opportunity? Thanks for getting the conversations started, firestorm! :-) You're welcome. Shall we talk next about President Obama and the unemployment rate? Just kidding!!!!!!
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2015 12:05:37 GMT -8
How about ad-blockers that ad networks are already trying to defeat?
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Post by mikelicht on Sept 19, 2015 15:28:04 GMT -8
Firestorm, Figured this was as good a time as any to make my first post . Long time lurker. I never miss a day of following you guys and gals on AFB. Have owned AAPL since 1987, bought 100 shares and have held them ever since. I guess I don't have much to contribute to the discussions so I have never posted. I'll bet there are thousands of others who are in the same boat.All I can say is this board is highly informative and entertaining as well.I would like to thank each and everyone of you for providing a whole lot of really great discussions which have kept me informed on the latest Apple news. Keep up the great Work
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Post by galleybob on Sept 19, 2015 15:43:41 GMT -8
+ 1 to mikelicht. I don't post as I just hold on to my shares and collect dividends.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 19, 2015 17:17:52 GMT -8
This is the first place I check each morning and it brings the lyrics to an old sitcom to mind for a very good reason : Sometimes you want to go Where everybody knows your name, And they're always glad you came; You want to be where you can see, Our troubles are all the same; You want to be where everybody knows your name.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Sept 19, 2015 19:32:14 GMT -8
I believe the market needs confirmation that YOY revenues are not about to decline due to a tough comparison to the launch of the iPhone 6. If we get 1Q guidance next month that projects at the high end of the range even a small increase in revenues YOY, then I think we will see new stock highs before year end.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 19, 2015 20:41:26 GMT -8
I believe the market needs confirmation that YOY revenues are not about to decline due to a tough comparison to the launch of the iPhone 6. If we get 1Q guidance next month that projects at the high end of the range even a small increase in revenues YOY, then I think we will see new stock highs before year end. And if not?
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Post by mace on Sept 19, 2015 21:20:25 GMT -8
I think the reason is the harder times for AAPL to continue growing. It is no longer so much about gadgets, as it is Apple's forays into other areas where there is vested competition. Apple Pay, streaming music, TV, the enterprise, etc. The road to success will not be easy. The road to success was never easy. Agree. Entering the cell phone market is pretty tough, a newbie into a "matured" market with strong incumbents like Nokia, MSFT and many others. This is what Steve Balmer thinks of iPhone then.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 19, 2015 23:07:32 GMT -8
Thanks for getting the conversations started, firestorm! :-) You're welcome. Shall we talk next about President Obama and the unemployment rate? Just kidding!!!!!! You miss me, just admit it.
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Post by ericinaustin on Sept 20, 2015 6:00:34 GMT -8
Since it's quiet I'll note that since the updates to iOS last week Seri has gone from good to amazing. Seri is slowly becoming a cant do without tool. Still trying to wrap my head around the idea that with seri and Apple Music I can just ask for any album I can remember and it begins to play. Asked for head east " flat as a pancake". And in 5 seconds, there it was. We live in amazing times. Now , the rest of you wippersnappers, "GET OFF OF MY LAWN". Sorry , feeling old.
Eric in Austin
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 20, 2015 10:38:34 GMT -8
Is anyone using the News app in IOS 9? I used Zite before but I really like what Apple is doing.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 20, 2015 12:46:17 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 20, 2015 14:06:52 GMT -8
Apple Watch sales are about to explode? How could that possibly happen? It's quite clear that only older people even wear watches anymore. And look how expensive they are. Who could possibly afford to buy one for their child? If only there were some way that Apple could make their watches both less expensive and more appealing to younger people. Oh, by the way, this is a photo my wife took of a young boy at a local baseball game our grandson was playing in. He appears to be wearing an Apple Watch, but of course that can't be true, for the reasons I've already stated.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 20, 2015 14:14:41 GMT -8
I'm not sure why members of this board continue to pick on Samesung. It's so not true that they always try to copy Apple. Oh, wait, this just came in: Samsung Follows Apple's Lead With Its Own Phone Leasing Program, Cutting Out Carriers Further
Well, could be just a coincidence...
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Sept 20, 2015 14:48:43 GMT -8
I believe the market needs confirmation that YOY revenues are not about to decline due to a tough comparison to the launch of the iPhone 6. If we get 1Q guidance next month that projects at the high end of the range even a small increase in revenues YOY, then I think we will see new stock highs before year end. And if not? If earnings are lower, the stock will take a hit, but given the low PE, that may be short lived.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 20, 2015 15:30:07 GMT -8
This morning I had my first Apple Watch glitch. Prior to taking a walk with my wife I was unable to bring up the Workout App. Every time I tried, the screen went dark before I could continue. I rebooted the watch and everything was back to normal.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 20, 2015 15:34:37 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Sept 20, 2015 15:45:04 GMT -8
My local rural Walmart stopped carrying Apple products. I'm not sure if this is good news or not, because the displays always looked trashed. This seems to be a Samsung hotbed.
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