Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2016 3:56:39 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 4:12:41 GMT -8
This downturn clearly caught Apple by surprise, or they would not have spent so much money on buybacks. Better to keep the cash and look at growth acquisitions if your core business is stalling. We may not get back to last year's average buyback price for quite some time - very poor use of cash in hindsight. It's time to jack up the divided and make some moves or this stock is going nowhere.
This should also be a wake-up call to everyone here (myself included) not to automatically dismiss bearish analysts notes as FUD. This has happened twice now yet we refuse to learn. Pro analysts are inherently conservative in their estimates, so they often look like fools when Apple blows out earnings. But they also have a much better pulse on the bearish side of things because they don't have the bias that we do. It's time to acknowledge that for many of us, our bias has been clouding the truth and costing us a lot of money.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2016 4:23:48 GMT -8
With as much cash as Apple has, I don't think they have been caught by surprise. Indeed, I was surprised the buy back number wasn't higher and was not at all surprised to hear them say they are going to hit the debt market to increase shareholder returns this year.
I am duly chastened with respect to FUD... It is a challenge. In my years of observing commentary, it remains, as it has always been, fashionable to bash Apple.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2016 4:42:04 GMT -8
Actually - I think all the bashing is getting old. People don't want to hear the same thing over and over again. Now that Tim Cook opened up and said market is challenging but remains strong and will invest in future. What else can click bait say??! I mean how many freakin times can people stand hearing the talking heads on CNBC say the damn thing over and over and over again.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2016 4:43:31 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2016 4:53:05 GMT -8
Bloomberg has Apple: What Comes Next as Sales Forecast Declines? Not a bad segment. *** Catching up from my technical issue this morning. Has been reported that there were Safari outages world wide. Funny, I never thought of a browser as having 'off machine' dependencies. It took a restart of my Mac to get full functionality back. If you're having any issue with Safari this morning, you might want to restart your machine.
|
|
|
Post by jmolloy on Jan 27, 2016 5:02:55 GMT -8
Bloomberg has Apple: What Comes Next as Sales Forecast Declines? Not a bad segment. *** Catching up from my technical issue this morning. Has been reported that there were Safari outages world wide. Funny, I never thought of a browser as having 'off machine' dependencies. It took a restart of my Mac to get full functionality back. If you're having any issue with Safari this morning, you might want to restart your machine. Restarting won't help. Basically what has happened is that some young idiot thought it would be a jolly jape to redirect Safaris search suggestions urn to that thing that crashed Safari the day before yesterday. In the short term if you turn off search suggestions in iOS or OS X it will work fine again. Slightly worried that a crucial part of Safari can be so easily hi-jacked.
|
|
|
Post by ahmpower on Jan 27, 2016 5:32:01 GMT -8
Just a thought: Could it be that WS analysts can now be smug about being right this time, and justify their salaries and their existence, and so will mercifully turn on the green light AAPL to go up?
|
|
|
Post by incorrigible on Jan 27, 2016 5:53:16 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO.
[/rant]
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2016 6:15:02 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO. [/rant] U may get your 3pct divvy unfortunately without apple having to do anything different
|
|
|
Post by incorrigible on Jan 27, 2016 6:22:59 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO. [/rant] U may get your 3pct divvy unfortunately without apple having to do anything different Fixed it.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jan 27, 2016 6:29:18 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO. [/rant] U may get your 3pct divvy unfortunately without apple having to do anything different Not funny.... Except in a macabre sort of way. I don't see $70 per share but what the hell do I know.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 6:38:39 GMT -8
$70 isn't "fair" or likely in my opinion but it's a lot more plausible today than it was yesterday. Extremely negative conference call and 2016 will likely be a negative growth year. How to value a company that's shrinking?
This is the problem with valuing AAPL. Huge growth one year, nothing or negative the next. A big divided would go a long way in making investors happier to ride out the cycles.
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2016 6:39:25 GMT -8
Just a thought: Could it be that WS analysts can now be smug about being right this time, and justify their salaries and their existence, and so will mercifully turn on the green light AAPL to go up? No Stop with the confirmation bias
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2016 6:40:44 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO. [/rant] Why do you think WS discounts the cash?? It's irrelevant till they give a clear heads up in terms of what they want to do with it The stock buy backs have been a terrible waste of shareholder resources (at this point anyways)
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2016 6:43:25 GMT -8
This is what it sounds like when doves cry
|
|
|
Post by ahmpower on Jan 27, 2016 6:48:44 GMT -8
ouch
|
|
macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
|
Post by macorange on Jan 27, 2016 6:52:47 GMT -8
My losses today sting, but I try to keep it in perspective of how many good days there have been owning AAPL. And my core conviction is unchanged: AAPL is undervalued because the market places a huge risk discount on iPhone revenues on the basis of other "hot" phones that cooled quickly (Motorola, Blackberry, etc). As most of us on this board understand, the iPhone is protected by software and services that no previous phone had. AAPL remains a screaming buy at its price, despite softer revenues during difficult market conditions.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 6:59:59 GMT -8
I wish Apple would just jack up the divi to 3% and share some of that cash with the owners of the business (i.e. us. The long term stockholders). It's not their cash. It's ours. Screw the double tax implications. Not doing any good for anyone in the bank. Sure as hell not helping the share price. Would make holding this dog far more palatable IMO. [/rant] Why do you think WS discounts the cash?? It's irrelevant till they give a clear heads up in terms of what they want to do with it The stock buy backs have been a terrible waste of shareholder resources (at this point anyways) Imagine if they used the $140B for special dividends instead of buybacks...would be about $20/share. That sounds really nice right about now. Have to admit though that I was a big proponent of the buyback when it was announced.
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2016 7:18:33 GMT -8
Man this board sounds like a bunch of timid deer in the forest. Lighten up for gods sake. They had a slow prediction for the next quarter . Tim didn't come and steal your lunch money. Those here that own the stock own one of the cheapest stocks in the market with a 2+% dividend. Just the services business is a Fortune 150 company (148) and is growing at 25%. THATS JUST SERVICES!! you make money in the market when you buy great growing companies cheap and wait for time to bring the rest of the weak kneed idiots ( i.e. investors) around. The company is fine, the price of the stock is dirt cheap. Just take some prozac and keep repeating that and by the summer you will feel better.
|
|
|
Post by mrentropy on Jan 27, 2016 7:20:25 GMT -8
I haven't been a huge fan of dividends,mainly because people just seem to trade in to get them and trade out once they have them. I don't believe it does anything to stabilize the price, quite the opposite.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2016 7:21:17 GMT -8
Extremely negative conference call and 2016 will likely be a negative growth year. How to value a company that's shrinking? Units, revenues or profits? None of them declined this quarter. Growth rate declined, and as I have said before, the focus on this baffles me.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Jan 27, 2016 7:23:08 GMT -8
Again, what would the PPS be WITHOUT Apple propping it up?
As far as Acquisitions go, they tried that on a big scale. $3B for Beats! Meh.
iPad Pro was didn't do squat, sure didn't help that it's major selling point, the Pencil, couldn't be found anywhere. Idiotic.
Still a buy long term until people start moving away from Apple products. Not happening for awhile.
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2016 7:27:17 GMT -8
Apple is a utility company guys. Reframe your perspective on the company. No one is saying any of their lines of business is disappearing. But mega growth in any line of business will not happen. Period.
Need new product category with the traditional Apple margins
Nothing on the horizon. At all.
It's a utility company.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 7:28:29 GMT -8
Extremely negative conference call and 2016 will likely be a negative growth year. How to value a company that's shrinking? Units, revenues or profits? None of them declined this quarter. Growth rate declined, and as I have said before, the focus on this baffles me. All three are declining in the current quarter. And I would posit for the rest of the year as well, though not as much if we are to believe management.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Jan 27, 2016 7:34:43 GMT -8
We've been beaten so badly of late that I'm kinda getting immune to AAPL's falls. It's like "Oh, so... what else?"
Does Apple deserve to lose almost a third of its value for the slowdown of iPhones? No! But it is what it is with this stock. The unreasonable standards, bloated expectations, FUD and manipulation are such a part and parcel of owning this stock and we've learned it the hard way. We've all lost money. Some of us who've hedged and dabbled in options too have lost most of our money that we thought would do good being put in the best company in the world making crazy revs and profits.
With all the PTs now being cut across the board, only the iPhone 7 "may" bring the shine back into AAPL. Until then, it's wait and watch.
Here's hoping we don't see the 80's.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 7:37:57 GMT -8
Again, what would the PPS be WITHOUT Apple propping it up? As far as Acquisitions go, they tried that on a big scale. $3B for Beats! Meh. iPad Pro was didn't do squat, sure didn't help that it's major selling point, the Pencil, couldn't be found anywhere. Idiotic. Still a buy long term until people start moving away from Apple products. Not happening for awhile. Without propping it up, Apple would have about $300B in cash and no debt. Would AAPL be trading at an EV of $225B, which is about 1x revenue? I guess we'll never know, but that would be even more of a ridiculous valuation than today's.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2016 7:38:54 GMT -8
Units, revenues or profits? None of them declined this quarter. Growth rate declined, and as I have said before, the focus on this baffles me. All three are declining in the current quarter. And I would posit for the rest of the year as well, though not as much if we are to believe management. We shall see. Suppose that management has decided that greater honesty and more transparency in their guidance has turned out to be a service only to the naysayers, and that they have decided to go back to if not full sandbagging at least being more conservative in their guidance? I think that this may be one area where Tim Cook's personal decency has bitten him (and us) in the butt, and the ghost of Steve may be whispering in his ear. BWDIK
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2016 7:41:06 GMT -8
Again, what would the PPS be WITHOUT Apple propping it up? As far as Acquisitions go, they tried that on a big scale. $3B for Beats! Meh. iPad Pro was didn't do squat, sure didn't help that it's major selling point, the Pencil, couldn't be found anywhere. Idiotic. Still a buy long term until people start moving away from Apple products. Not happening for awhile. Without propping it up, Apple would have about $300B in cash and no debt. Would AAPL be trading at an EV of $225B, which is about 1x revenue? I guess we'll never know, but that would be even more of a ridiculous valuation than today's. That's what I've been saying. The only thing capable of propping apple up is cash on hand. Just look at the coverage of earnings, where most articles mentioned that. Apple has $39 per share in cash. Well, if they had $70 per share in cash right now instead of 39 you really think it would be trading for less than 94?
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 7:46:37 GMT -8
All three are declining in the current quarter. And I would posit for the rest of the year as well, though not as much if we are to believe management. We shall see. Suppose that management has decided that greater honesty and more transparency in their guidance has turned out to be a service only to the naysayers, and that they have decided to go back to if not full sandbagging at least being more conservative in their guidance? I think that this may be one area where Tim Cook's personal decency has bitten him (and us) in the butt, and the ghost of Steve may be whispering in his ear. BWDIK That's really reaching. FQ1 was somewhat disappointing considering the six extra days of iPhone and all the new products and services that didn't exist in the year-ago compare. We have last quarter to see that growth was almost zero and an even tougher compare next quarter. The FX situation is incredibly tough. Increased prices and commodity related job losses are definitely affecting sales. I always upgrade my phone every two years but if I'm faced with paying $1200 when I used to pay $750 I'm definitely going to have to think twice. There is absolutely no doubt we are in a negative growth quarter. And more than likely a negative growth year.
|
|