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Post by sponge on Jan 27, 2016 7:48:26 GMT -8
Initially the stock is reacting to earnings. But I expect it to be impacted more by overall market. So I don't focus on growth as much since there are no growth prospects. Everyone keeps talking about the iPhone 7. But if economies of the world suffer further and all we get is a better camera, then we must be ready for more pain. The iPad should serve as an example. If the present model is good enough, no need to upgrade. The 6 series are amazing phones and they can easily last 4 years. Heck 60% are still using the 4/5 series. The 4S came out in 2011. I can see the 6 last longer given the bigger screen.
We need a new hit product. I still think the Apple Watch is that product, but we must wait a couple more years.
In the mean time I stay in cash and wait for flash crashes. The stock is now getting cheaper and I expect even more volatility.
We have seen a p/e of 9 in 2012 and 2013 and I expect to see it this year. Come July eps will really start to contract.
Looks like that 6% move is happening. It signals further selling come March.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 27, 2016 7:53:08 GMT -8
Let's not forget they posted the largest profit EVER recorded for a quarter from any company. 18.4 Billion. This is pure insanity ... it's trading ex-cash at 6-7 times earnings .... and people are dissing the growth ? Since when has it been priced like a growth stock It's cheaper than a utility. These are back the truck up moments ..... As much as I like Tim Cook he is not one to provide much confidence in times like these ... it's not in his nature. Man I wish someone with a brain would publicly stand up and defend this stock. I know it's been discussed before but I'll ask anyway: Is there a waiting period after reporting earnings before buying back ? Cheers to the longs ... hang in there.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2016 8:09:51 GMT -8
I have been a shareholder in apple since 1999, started trading AAPL options in 2003.
I still love apple products and I am continually impressed by Tim Cook's leadership. But at this stage I have to admit that the things that made me invest in the company with such conviction are mostly gone.
I had been hoping the analyst FUD would be proven wrong yesterday. But they were right. Apple is obviously not in a high growth phase this year, but earnings might contract or remain flat for the next few years.
I like my Apple Watch but I don't think it's for everyone and I'm not convinced that subsequent generations of it will be either. So in terms of their ability to make new products under TC that will sale in scale to make up for the difference, than I'd have to admit the jury is still out.
Right now it seems like the main investing case for Apple is "even with current levels of growth and profit and cash flow it's extremely undervalued." I agree with that but I also think that when it comes to Apple the market has always given it a deep uncertainty discount and I think it that will only get worse in the near future. So there's no hint that fair value will ever be achieved.
Therefore, what is the investing case? Faith that new products will eventually kickstart growth? Seems like my money could be safely deployed elsewhere.
Haven't sold yet, just thinking aloud here.
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Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2016 8:10:48 GMT -8
Apple is selling off on big volume fwiw.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2016 8:22:17 GMT -8
Gene Munster on CNBC ... he looks beat up but is still pounding the drum in an almost "all the bad news is out - expectations are so low now". I feel bad for him - he came out right before earnings to urge folks to buy. I found it interesting (the conspiracy theory) that they (AAPL) didn't buy a whole lot of shares back this quarter. My gut tells me that GS must have told them that they saw a lot of softening out there particularly in China and possibly may have told them to keep their powder dry for lower levels. TC must have seen lower levels coming. For those of you who say he doesn't pay attention to stock price YOU ARE ALL DEAD WRONG ABOUT EVERY CEO. They do care - I have seen it first hand - they know where their respective stock is TO THE PENNY. They may say they don't but they do and do you know why? It's their report card and a reflection of their performance ... it's personal to some more than others but IT IS personal. So you would think they would be out there this quarter scooping up lots of shares - although they'll need more domestic cash in their domestic coffers.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 27, 2016 8:46:52 GMT -8
Apple is a utility company guys. Reframe your perspective on the company. No one is saying any of their lines of business is disappearing. But mega growth in any line of business will not happen. Period. Need new product category with the traditional Apple margins Nothing on the horizon. At all. It's a utility company. Fine. Pay me like one. With a decent yield, I don't give a rat's ass what the share price is short term. I don't mind waiting as long as I'm paid to do so.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 27, 2016 9:13:40 GMT -8
70 million shares in the first two hours of trading. I don't know if the price drop counts as capitulation, but it is encouraging that it's climbing with a nice tail. Hope it closes that way.
I'm as discouraged as anyone here. I'm most likely keeping my core holdings. If I'm going to own a stock going into a recession, at least it will have a good balance sheet.
As far as putting new money to work, not sure it would be in Apple. I'll continue to sell some at the money put spreads a year out, that may be it for a bit.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 27, 2016 9:25:50 GMT -8
But by all means buy Twitter today with its stellar balance sheet, earnings and growth, not to mention all that management stability. Up 3% today
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 27, 2016 9:36:52 GMT -8
Man this board sounds like a bunch of timid deer in the forest. Lighten up for gods sake. They had a slow prediction for the next quarter . Tim didn't come and steal your lunch money. Those here that own the stock own one of the cheapest stocks in the market with a 2+% dividend. Just the services business is a Fortune 150 company (148) and is growing at 25%. THATS JUST SERVICES!! you make money in the market when you buy great growing companies cheap and wait for time to bring the rest of the weak kneed idiots ( i.e. investors) around. The company is fine, the price of the stock is dirt cheap. Just take some prozac and keep repeating that and by the summer you will feel better. Right on Eric! Moved all my client's and my orders up to $95 yesterday. Got filled on all this morning. All good for the long-term. Everyone needs to relax. Regards,
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 27, 2016 9:38:56 GMT -8
Gene Munster on CNBC ... he looks beat up but is still pounding the drum in an almost "all the bad news is out - expectations are so low now". I feel bad for him - he came out right before earnings to urge folks to buy... He's been a loyal one all along. His predictions and numbers may have often been off but his historical positivity has never been.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 27, 2016 9:56:22 GMT -8
Without propping it up, Apple would have about $300B in cash and no debt. Would AAPL be trading at an EV of $225B, which is about 1x revenue? I guess we'll never know, but that would be even more of a ridiculous valuation than today's. That's what I've been saying. The only thing capable of propping apple up is cash on hand. Just look at the coverage of earnings, where most articles mentioned that. Apple has $39 per share in cash. Well, if they had $70 per share in cash right now instead of 39 you really think it would be trading for less than 94? Agree, my guess is that Apple mgmt. didn't figure that they would trade at a P/E of 10 or less. If it was at 15 would we be having this discussion? They assumed like many of us here that it would be "fairly valued" (whatever that is) when they did the buy backs. We can do that exercise again now. Trading at 10.37, not too far from historical lows but can always go lower. You make a very good point. Hindsight.... BTW, I remember when Apple was rumored to be buying Vivendi in 2003, they had 4B in cash and AAPL dropped 8% that day. I told a guy on the golf course to buy aapl because it wasn't trading much above it's cash value. Apple to buy Vivendi for 6B. Wonder when Uncle Carl is going to get tired of this, would love to know what he's thinking.
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Post by macster on Jan 27, 2016 10:02:59 GMT -8
I think the phone growth slowdown in the US is largely a matter of cannibalism by  tv, Watch and Beats xmas gift selections rather than a lack of compelling iPhone 6s/plus interest. Plus a tinge of sticker shock with the disappearing subsidized model.
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Post by Zeke on Jan 27, 2016 10:07:43 GMT -8
Everyone is comparing YoY figures. Last year was an aberration. We knew that going in. If you look at FQ2 numbers for the past several years it's obvious that last year is an outlier and this year we are returning to normal. It only looks like a problem if you ignore 2014 and on back. I'm not saying everything is rosy. But I am saying that the Street and its analysts have very short memories.
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Post by Zeke on Jan 27, 2016 10:11:33 GMT -8
On the subject of buy backs. I've always felt it was a waste of money. More Wall Street voodoo that "everybody knows" is a great plan for a company like Apple. /s Give us a special dividend of $15 or $20 per share if you want to deal with excess cash. The buy back money went to the sharks, not the share holders.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2016 10:31:26 GMT -8
Gene Munster on CNBC ... he looks beat up but is still pounding the drum in an almost "all the bad news is out - expectations are so low now". I feel bad for him - he came out right before earnings to urge folks to buy... He's been a loyal one all along. His predictions and numbers may have often been off but his historical positivity has never been. By the way - I forgot to mention something Gene said for those who missed it. He claimed that they analyzed TC's comments and that TC said something that referred to "negativity" (i.e. words like headwinds, softening, currency hit, and the like) every two minutes (on average) according to folks over at Piper Jaffray who ran the analysis. He attributed THAT to people viewing the report as a bad one...which of course it was not.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2016 11:02:25 GMT -8
I like my Apple Watch but I don't think it's for everyone and I'm not convinced that subsequent generations of it will be either. So in terms of their ability to make new products under TC that will sale in scale to make up for the difference, than I'd have to admit the jury is still out. Here is the problem. Mobile phones are the biggest product market since water (slight exaggeration), and Apple found the magic strategy for cornering nearly all of the profits from it. If Apple's task is to replicate those revenues and profits, then they might as well rename themselves the Sisyphus company. That's really where the Tough Compare is.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2016 11:10:52 GMT -8
Speaking of the Apple Watch, thank you Jeb Bush for your wonderful product demo. Sheesh!
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Post by galleybob on Jan 27, 2016 11:27:49 GMT -8
Again, what would the PPS be WITHOUT Apple propping it up? I get that but didn't they just waste billions buying at $120.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 27, 2016 12:26:50 GMT -8
Again, what would the PPS be WITHOUT Apple propping it up? I get that but didn't they just waste billions buying at $120. I agree but these comments sort of imply that the PPS would be the same regardless of the buy backs. We'll never know. There would have been several "misses" in there without the slightly jacked up EPS. Did Apple know that China was going to slowdown like it has, did they know the FX headwinds would be as strong and last as long as they have?
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 27, 2016 12:35:46 GMT -8
We need Uncle Carl. Now!!
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Post by hledgard on Jan 27, 2016 12:42:15 GMT -8
I have been a shareholder in apple since 1999, started trading AAPL options in 2003. I still love apple products and I am continually impressed by Tim Cook's leadership. But at this stage I have to admit that the things that made me invest in the company with such conviction are mostly gone. I had been hoping the analyst FUD would be proven wrong yesterday. But they were right. Apple is obviously not in a high growth phase this year, but earnings might contract or remain flat for the next few years. I like my Apple Watch but I don't think it's for everyone and I'm not convinced that subsequent generations of it will be either. So in terms of their ability to make new products under TC that will sale in scale to make up for the difference, than I'd have to admit the jury is still out. Right now it seems like the main investing case for Apple is "even with current levels of growth and profit and cash flow it's extremely undervalued." I agree with that but I also think that when it comes to Apple the market has always given it a deep uncertainty discount and I think it that will only get worse in the near future. So there's no hint that fair value will ever be achieved. Therefore, what is the investing case? Faith that new products will eventually kickstart growth? Seems like my money could be safely deployed elsewhere. Haven't sold yet, just thinking aloud here. My position too. Have held Apple shares since the early days, many years ago. The things that drew me to Apple are also mostly gone. My family, friends, and relatives mostly live on Apple products. I too am thinking.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 27, 2016 12:43:43 GMT -8
Did anyone wave bye-bye to the bottom sponge called as we flew by it?
(And no I'm not just being snide, I'm pointing out why you don't call bottoms)
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Jan 27, 2016 12:50:39 GMT -8
On the subject of buy backs. I've always felt it was a waste of money. More Wall Street voodoo that "everybody knows" is a great plan for a company like Apple. /s Give us a special dividend of $15 or $20 per share if you want to deal with excess cash. The buy back money went to the sharks, not the share holders. Don't the buyback of shares increase earnings per share?
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Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2016 13:09:47 GMT -8
Did anyone wave bye-bye to the bottom sponge called as we flew by it? (And no I'm not just being snide, I'm pointing out why you don't call bottoms) That dude has literally no idea what he is talking about. Technicals, fundamentals...and the rate that he flip flops is astounding.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 13:27:55 GMT -8
On the subject of buy backs. I've always felt it was a waste of money. More Wall Street voodoo that "everybody knows" is a great plan for a company like Apple. /s Give us a special dividend of $15 or $20 per share if you want to deal with excess cash. The buy back money went to the sharks, not the share holders. Don't the buyback of shares increase earnings per share? Yes...a metric nobody really cares about when it comes to AAPL. It's all about iPhone sales.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Jan 27, 2016 13:45:19 GMT -8
Don't the buyback of shares increase earnings per share? Yes...a metric nobody really cares about when it comes to AAPL. It's all about iPhone sales. It's a metric no one currently cares much about. I believe this will change with time. Apple is definitely a victim of their own record-breaking success with the iPhone. But as the iPhone growth cools down I'm expecting the focus will shift to the other very profitable segments of their business... eventually.
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Post by rickag on Jan 27, 2016 13:47:35 GMT -8
Did anyone wave bye-bye to the bottom sponge called as we flew by it? (And no I'm not just being snide, I'm pointing out why you don't call bottoms) Warning the following is politically incorrect, Depends on whose bottom.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2016 14:04:26 GMT -8
Yes...a metric nobody really cares about when it comes to AAPL. It's all about iPhone sales. It's a metric no one currently cares much about. I believe this will change with time. Apple is definitely a victim of their own record-breaking success with the iPhone. But as the iPhone growth cools down I'm expecting the focus will shift to the other very profitable segments of their business... eventually. Apple has other profitable segments? /s
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Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2016 14:23:16 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Jan 27, 2016 14:24:27 GMT -8
Even a broken clock is right twice a day
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