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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 13:00:01 GMT -8
40% GM is no concern for any company. We're really just spoiled. I'd like to see it continue to slide down toward 35%, maybe even 30%. At those margins, there would be very little room for competitors to make any profit... You're kidding, right? When you can't produce enough product to satisfy demand, you don't lower prices. And when you have the best products, you don't need to add more features (and expense) while maintaining the same price. So, I can't see how what you're saying satisfies the logic test.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 25, 2012 13:00:20 GMT -8
Amazing. Just amazing. GS tell everyone to go long volatility while they are clearly selling it. All those reports of 50+ buck moves up or down and we're going to end the AH session flat.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:00:22 GMT -8
Red, spot on as usual. The GM is the reason for the miss. I have my tinfoil hat on now, but does anyone else find it interesting that it pinged 585 right out of the gate? Very interesting! Technical bulls had orders for 585. Panic sellers entered market sell orders on the way out the window. Magic ensues. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 25, 2012 13:00:41 GMT -8
At times like this, I often take to looking at the two year chart of AAPL, and remind myself that AAPL does not stay down longer than a quarter (even after April, it did come back and approach the ATH in July; and, after July, it was only 2 months to another ATH). I think Gregg may have said this in another post. So I think we'll be okay. AAPL's low ISM ratio, with respect to AMZN, GOOG and others, is the result of the STRENGTH of Apple. Think about it, if you were going to engage a strategy that resulted in WTF sales (which maximizes your profits) you would want to do it with a firm strong enough to repeatedly (predictably) get up time and again, after being knocked down. AAPL's ISM can't grow as it would otherwise, because it can't in the quarterly time frame of hedge fund investing. Without hedge fund participation, AAPL would be able to rise to it true market value. AAPL is especially sensitive to this BECAUSE it is so strong, not because Wall Street doesn't get it. Wall Street DOES get it, and they are making billions doing it. AAPL is a victim of Apple's strength. Think about it. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) This makes SO much sense. Your insights are always appreciated, Greg.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 13:00:51 GMT -8
Results are better than July '12 and mixed vs. Oct. '11. In at least two cases, we didn't beat the street, ranging from -3.2% for 4Q11 and -1.9% here (don't have the street's # for 3Q12).
The beat of AAPL's guidance ranged from +28.2% (4Q11), +13.3% (here), and +7.37% (3Q12).
One other difference is that in the other two cases, the share price was about $20 to $30 off the ATH, and here we were about $85 of the ATH, so maybe we'll be spared a nasty correction.
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Post by incorrigible on Oct 25, 2012 13:01:09 GMT -8
Odd. That's where I am. Cut and paste issue I guess. Thanks for the correction.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 13:01:46 GMT -8
If we close above 600 tomorrow, I'd like to believe that this will be a repeat scenario of the previous earnings. A couple of low or stagnant days and then "wheeee" after that.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 13:01:51 GMT -8
Now, that would be something! Ha, no chance. Not with that guidance. Apple only increased their ttm to 44ish. 44x 12.5 = 550 44x 13= 572 44x 14 = 616 572 ish fills the gaps from July. To make matters worse, we no enter a time when Apple is usually very quiet. Almost sounds like you are short or all in cash? Why so negative? I can't believe you base your position on their guidance for their strongest qtr. What you havin a laugh?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 25, 2012 13:02:30 GMT -8
is anyone getting the CC? I don't seem to be getting the stream
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Post by mstefa on Oct 25, 2012 13:03:11 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 13:03:38 GMT -8
So far, looking at block trades more than 1000 shares after trading resumed: 586 (lowest and not for long) to 610.78 (highest)
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Post by incorrigible on Oct 25, 2012 13:04:22 GMT -8
Arrrggg! Still won't work for me.
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Post by theirishguy on Oct 25, 2012 13:04:31 GMT -8
Odd. That's where I am. Cut and paste issue I guess. Thanks for the correction. i think there are issues with the stream . . .
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 13:04:32 GMT -8
Great point made on CNBC about the cost of ramping up a brand new product line. iPhone 5, new iPad, iPad mini, iPod Nano and Touch, iMac and 13 inch MBP all saw new production lines started in 4Q. That is a huge hit to margins. Excellent point. Perhaps they could also mention AAPL's capital spending spree they are on, as this projects for greater revenues down the road.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 13:04:35 GMT -8
Did the call start? i am not getting any sound
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 13:04:39 GMT -8
IMO, the guidance is what is saving us and I am not talking about the EPS number. WS just figured out that the 52 billion revenue number is fantastic. The CC is where TC and PO will earn their keep.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 13:06:23 GMT -8
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Post by mstefa on Oct 25, 2012 13:07:06 GMT -8
Did the call start? i am not getting any sound me neither..
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 13:07:12 GMT -8
Yes ... not sure it started yet
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Post by theirishguy on Oct 25, 2012 13:07:26 GMT -8
yep. same here - not working.
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Post by PikesPique on Oct 25, 2012 13:07:28 GMT -8
It's working fine for me at that URL.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 13:07:53 GMT -8
IMO, the guidance is what is saving us and I am not talking about the EPS number. WS just figured out that the 52 billion revenue number is fantastic. The CC is where TC and PO will earn their keep. I completely agree, Mark. That caught my eye.....That revenue number gives lots and lots of opportunity for upside in earnings as efficiencies, supply constraints, rollout costs, ebb. That revenue guidance is the Easter Egg
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 13:08:12 GMT -8
Still can't load the f'in call. WTF?!?!?
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 13:09:07 GMT -8
Crazy. Won't load for me in Google Chrome. Works fine in Safari.
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 13:09:20 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 25, 2012 13:09:32 GMT -8
I finally got connection with my iPhone over 3G
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:09:51 GMT -8
I'm confident Oppenheimer is being careful with that $52B juuussst in case given all those supply disruptions.
iPad mini will help iPad sales big time. iPad was really quite light for the quarter.
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 13:10:02 GMT -8
Andy Zaky getting mentioned on CNBC .....
Call has started ... stream isn't working for most of us.
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Post by theirishguy on Oct 25, 2012 13:10:17 GMT -8
Still can't load the f'in call. WTF?!?!? link works in safari. not firefox
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 13:10:38 GMT -8
Oppenheimer sounds fine this quarter. He wasn't his usual self last quarter. Good sign.
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