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Post by appledoc on Nov 4, 2012 19:06:19 GMT -8
It's funny (or not so funny) to look back at the weekend threads corresponding to the week of and week after the ATH. Looks like we were all distracted by the iPhone announcement and release. Seems like perfect timing to start tanking the stock.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 19:26:11 GMT -8
Am I the only one that is excited about the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the product calendar in March... (...) Apple has a device currently on the market that is simply a portal for streaming media - yet has the software codebase & hardware power of the ipad 2 (the apple TV). Despite the fact it is only used for media streaming - this vastly underutilised little box still shipped 5 million units over the last 12 months. Ignoring the debate about whether or not we will see a large screen HDTV sold by apple for a moment - the actual Apple TV OS already has everything needed to become a 3rd party software platform - it only need apple to flick a switch. Im guessing apple would want to have sessions for developers at next years WWDC on this before any 3rd party software actually was enabled. So I'm picking an announcment at the WWDC keynote event - with product availability in the summer - either the next generation of apple tV Box with a possiblity of one integrated into a TV. Alongside an entry level $99 appleTV, I can see apple having higher priced $199 & $299 32GB & 64GB options which can actually hold apps & content like any other iOS device.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 4, 2012 19:45:19 GMT -8
Am I the only one that is excited about the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the product calendar in March... (...) Apple has a device currently on the market that is simply a portal for streaming media - yet has the software codebase & hardware power of the ipad 2 (the apple TV). Despite the fact it is only used for media streaming - this vastly underutilised little box still shipped 5 million units over the last 12 months. Ignoring the debate about whether or not we will see a large screen HDTV sold by apple for a moment - the actual Apple TV OS already has everything needed to become a 3rd party software platform - it only need apple to flick a switch. Im guessing apple would want to have sessions for developers at next years WWDC on this before any 3rd party software actually was enabled. So I'm picking an announcment at the WWDC keynote event - with product availability in the summer - either the next generation of apple tV Box with a possiblity of one integrated into a TV. Alongside an entry level $99 appleTV, I can see apple having higher priced $199 & $299 32GB & 64GB options which can actually hold apps & content like any other iOS device. I agree that Apple TV could end up being a big surprise ... I think the only holdup is content as the hardware is ready for prime time. Although I'm not to sure about your storage options ... it would be rather ironic considering the very first generation Apple TV which I purchased about 4 years ago had a 80 gig HD and the versions after that were around 250GB or so ... I for one think getting rid of the hard drive was very premature as iCloud is still crap as far as I'm concerned . Content and getting bandwidth into households are major obstacles ... This is where Apple will miss the power of a Steve Jobs ... I'm not sure who at Apple could/would be the go to as far as trying to get this done. I guess we will see soon ... I hope.
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Mav
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[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 19:50:55 GMT -8
Eddy Cue is Mr. Apple Content Deals.
And for those worried about Steve leaving Apple with lessened influence: Well, Apple still has plenty of influential execs, and there is the matter of Apple being a $150B company, which tends to bring its own kind of influence.
TV is gonna be incredibly tough. Just getting the ideal hardware interface isn't all there is. Multiply that by media markets around the world and I'm fine with Apple waiting as long as it has to go bring an Apple television something to market.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 4, 2012 20:02:06 GMT -8
Lovey, I have to say, you stay on top of things. I like the news bar about DST. I changed my settings earlier today and was actually wondering if I should post something, but because so many are not in the US I decided not to.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 4, 2012 21:00:05 GMT -8
Don't forget, you can always average up...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 4, 2012 21:17:45 GMT -8
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 4, 2012 21:18:27 GMT -8
Redler made a great post about Apple. I really like this guy. I'm not a fan of weekly options, but hope to make some $'s by Friday. Good luck to everyone. newtraderu.com/?p=2277
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 4, 2012 21:55:30 GMT -8
The comparison to 2008 might make one think: "It's about as low as it was when people were expecting Great Depression II, so that's got to be a solid floor, right?" But don't forget that in 2008 Apple was still using the old GAAP rules, so reported earnings were artificially deflated and thus P/E was artificially inflated. "Real" P/E based on real earnings was a lot lower back then. Using restated earnings to see apples to apples P/E comparisons, the intraday low P/E on March 6, 2009, was 6.86. 6.86 yes, but investors didn't have that information at the time. so it's more appropriate to use the PE ratio that everyone was working with at the time. Incorrect. It was publicly known. AFB was a big disseminator of the true earnings then, so it's ironic that there's confusion about this on AFB now. The P/E on March 6, 2009, hit a low of 6.86 using real earnings. We're nowhere near, and not headed anywhere near, that kind of bargain basement valuation.
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icam
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Post by icam on Nov 4, 2012 22:07:35 GMT -8
Redler made a great post about Apple. I really like this guy. I'm not a fan of weekly options, but hope to make some $'s by Friday. Good luck to everyone. newtraderu.com/?p=2277It says the author is Stephen Burns. I don't even see anything that says T3 Trading. Are you sure this post is associated with Redler?
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 4, 2012 22:22:01 GMT -8
Sorry. Let me clarify. Redler made this tweet: “@sjosephburns: My Key Chart Levels for APPLE stks.co/dDaC $AAPL My #trading #BLOG”. Some good work here. mobile.twitter.com/RedDogT3Live
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Post by davidcv100 on Nov 4, 2012 22:29:43 GMT -8
"China Unicom Confirms Apple iPhone 5 Launch Date on November 20, 2012" t.co/950fmaWG
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Post by tuffett on Nov 4, 2012 22:32:14 GMT -8
Excellent news. I did wonder myself why margins would be so low on the Mini. Cheap screen, year-old tech...only the build materials and new manufacturing process would bring up the costs. 43% margins on the lowest end model is staggering considering the markup for increased storage and LTE. This number is just for the materials though - no shipping, rejects, etc. I suspect the real number will be a fair lower, based on the comments from Cook et al. but should still be robust.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 4, 2012 22:33:23 GMT -8
"China Unicom Confirms Apple iPhone 5 Launch Date on November 20, 2012" t.co/950fmaWGIs this credible? Looks like supply is healthy!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 23:35:48 GMT -8
(...)ISM under 9: Mortgage house, hock family jewelry, sell kids into indentured servitude. ISM under 8: Wish kids well. Don't leave forwarding address ROFL!!!! Where on the ISM spectrum is: sell 1 car, sell 2 cars, sell ALL cars? Funny you should ask. My hobby is taking on a life of its own, causing me to sell two of my cars, the 2005 Ford GT, and the 1969 Mustang Boss 429 (KK1396). I'M GOING INTO THE ANTIQUE CAR BATTERY BUSINESS!! Seriously, My team has put together a 2E/3EH battery case with 6v AGM guts and a 6v maintainer secreted inside. We are in the final stages of staging to begin production (January?). For the antique car enthusiast, these will look like period correct 6v batteries in 2E/3EH cases, only they contain modern battery technology with over double the cranking power. Suggested MSRP will be $249.00 exchange. These are not lead acid. They are dry cell. Connection points for a 6v battery maintainer is hidden inside with easy access. Starting those OLD (pre-1953) cars will be much easier with the increased cranking power of a modern battery, yet your collector car will not be deducted show points because the external case is period correct. Average life expectancy is doubled to about 4 years, making the battery 25% less expensive than traditional lead acid replacements. And they are more environmentally friendly (number going to landfills cut in half, and those that make it there contain no acid and much less lead). These work terrifically in the big straight eights, V-12s and V-16s. They make straight sixes sound like race cars when starting. Thank you for the opportunity to tout my venture. Unfortunately it cost me about $500K in cars...to develop and launch. It would appear that I have ruined a perfectly good retirement.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 23:45:49 GMT -8
Excellent news. I did wonder myself why margins would be so low on the Mini. Cheap screen, year-old tech...only the build materials and new manufacturing process would bring up the costs. 43% margins on the lowest end model is staggering considering the markup for increased storage and LTE. This number is just for the materials though - no shipping, rejects, etc. I suspect the real number will be a fair lower, based on the comments from Cook et al. but should still be robust. The "real number" will most likely be right about as reported. I believe this will be the case because none of the tear down companies have access to Apple's component purchase agreements, and those prices are best in industry. Whatever additional savings are in the tear down estimates will be offset by packaging, shipping, training, warranty expense, etc., resulting in ~45% GM.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 23:50:16 GMT -8
Can Apple uses it's cash reserves stashed overseas to buyback stock or would they have to re-patriate the cash (and pay the tax) first? If not, it seems like a great thing to do with a spare 50 Billion or so. This idea surfaces with every dip of any significance. Apple has ignored every opportunity to do this. Instead Apple has stated that they will buy buy shares TO THE EXTENT THAT FURTHER DILUTION OF SHAREHOLDER EQUITY IS REDUCED. This is not the same thing as reducing actual shares outstanding, but rather stopping share creep caused by options/RSU grants.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 23:53:48 GMT -8
But don't forget that in 2008 Apple was still using the old GAAP rules, so reported earnings were artificially deflated and thus P/E was artificially inflated. "Real" P/E based on real earnings was a lot lower back then. Using restated earnings to see apples to apples P/E comparisons, the intraday low P/E on March 6, 2009, was 6.86. 6.86 yes, but investors didn't have that information at the time. so it's more appropriate to use the PE ratio that everyone was working with at the time. Exactly right. You cannot recalculate ISM/PE based on restated EPS without the investor having the opportunity to rethink their purchase decisions.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 5, 2012 0:37:15 GMT -8
(...)I'M GOING INTO THE ANTIQUE CAR BATTERY BUSINESS!!(...) Good for you Gregg. True happiness is doing what you want (with the resources you have) and creating memories with the people in your life. This is the only real legacy one leaves behind.
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