Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:43:51 GMT -8
I ask again - how many weak hands are left?!
The margined folks should've been in serious pain for some time now. Is AAPL that popular a stock to margin to the _hilt_ on?
I thought people got wiser with margin after the last THREE downwaves. (dot-bomb, 2008, etc.)
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 18:45:14 GMT -8
Well, tonight I got my first real sign that this is about to turn around. My cousin called me and asked if it was time to buy AAPL. He's a long time investor but he never bought AAPL before because he knows nothing about Apple or technology. If he's ready to buy, a lot of buyers are about to jump in. LOL, the inverse cab driver story. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:46:17 GMT -8
"Isn't AAPL getting really cheap?"
I have to recheck what parallel universe I woke up in... ;D
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 18:47:20 GMT -8
I ask again - how many weak hands are left?! The margined folks should've been in serious pain for some time now. Is AAPL that popular a stock to margin to the _hilt_ on? I thought people got wiser with margin after the last THREE downwaves. (dot-bomb, 2008, etc.) Mav, the margin selling was probably triggered when the 200 DMA was lost. Just my best guess.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 18:48:30 GMT -8
Macentropist, I agree with you. The tax issue is very relevant and political. The tax issue is indeed relevant and political. But discussion of investing and relevant tax issues does not require any discussion whatsoever of the underlying politics which give rise to the tax issues. That people do not understand this illustrates perfectly why a hard line should be taken against any discussion of politics in this thread.Exactly. Mark, That only reflects non IRA, tax non deferred accounts. If you trade in IRA/SEP/ROTH accounts, there are no tax ramifications. All taxable accounts are about o be spanked, big time. This is a tenant of Obama. And for all that think light political talk has no place on the board, Wake up and smell the roses, reality bites! A modicum of politics is relevant to any investing ideology. It should be tolerated, and welcomed, to a rather fine point of crossing the line. 2 pennies It's fine to discuss this in the dungeon. But there is absolutely no reason to go into the politics here. And it's worse to knowingly flout the rules.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 18:49:36 GMT -8
I am new here - Who is Nate Silver? Nate Silver is a writer (for the New York Times, I think), who runs a blog where he analyzes political polls. Whereas the major news outlets typically just averaged polls to get their estimates of how the candidates would fare in each state, Nate Silver used a methodology whereby he tried to weight the various polls according to their historical bias, or lack thereof. He had been predicting a solid Obama win for quite a while. Pundits on the right attacked him, some pretty viciously, claiming his numbers were voodoo, that they grossly overestimated Democratic turnout, and so on. He called every state correctly, 50/50, perfect prediction of the electoral vote count. In many cases, including most of the contested states I think, his prediction for the % of the votes for Obama and Romney were exactly right to 0.1%. So now pundits on the right are done calling him a charlatan, and pundits on the left are claiming that the prior behavior of pundits on the right indicates a lack of respect for science and math by the pundits on the right. And so it goes. But at any rate, his name comes up here because he was a "contrarian" voice in politics (not because he predicted a win for Obama, but because he claimed that the "swing" states were in fact mostly not so close and could be predicted well enough to predict the election to a high degree of certainty) and his contrarian opinion was completely vindicated day before yesterday. EDIT: In other words his name comes up, because each and every one of us here wishes to be "the Nate Silver of AAPL"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:50:01 GMT -8
Wasn't the 200-day, like, sooooo last week? It's like the gift that keeps on giving if margin selling/calls are still going on.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:50:49 GMT -8
Silver nailed the voting demographics. Reaction to that...varies wildly. ;D
But I think we should go back on topic.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 18:50:58 GMT -8
Don't forget, this sell-off has nothing to do with the election. Can we drop this? No one is denying the market went down after the election.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:52:23 GMT -8
Gridlock has the market scared.
Fine. I hope against hope that something concrete and credit-rating-neutral happens.
Moving on.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 18:55:47 GMT -8
Nate was an energy drainer. He brought nothing to the table, and demanded seconds on everything already there. Nate left after iPad deleted one of his political, name-calling posts. Said she was mean and left. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back once he gets over the election results and/or AAPL recovers. Gregg too? After his commentary on Nate's departure? Ok...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:58:30 GMT -8
Layers upon layers... "Whoa." (/Keanu)
The rules are so simple: Be civil. Don't be a nag or an annoyance. If you're self-deleting because of share price, you need to seriously reassess.
As for AAPL: Keep calm and stay in the zone. Stay in the game. Nimbleness is increasingly a necessity. And don't let this sale of the century (ongoing) get to you, as much as possible!
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Post by newton on Nov 8, 2012 19:03:12 GMT -8
The stock is definitely falling because of news of supply constraints of the iphone 5. I think Tim Cook really messed up this time by launching it in so many countries at once. They need to go back to the small staggered rollouts. Start with a small number of countries and then add more as production ramps up.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 19:07:06 GMT -8
Silver nailed the voting demographics. Reaction to that...varies wildly. ;D But I think we should go back on topic. My point is why in hell can't someone like him nail the smartphone and tablet demographic.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 19:09:24 GMT -8
'Cuz it's harder? ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 19:11:42 GMT -8
The stock is definitely falling because of news of supply constraints of the iphone 5. I think Tim Cook really messed up this time by launching it in so many countries at once. They need to go back to the small staggered rollouts. Start with a small number of countries and then add more as production ramps up. NEWS of supply constraints isn't the same as actually problematic supply constraints. It took me two tries over two days when I became upgrade eligible to reserve my iPhone 5 for in-store pickup (about a week into the launch). Not that big a deal. Obviously being able to get one at a store without much problem is an ideal situation. But iPhone demand is EXTREME. Assume Apple will sell 120 million of 'em, at least, in the first year after launch. Consider how many of those people want one, or more, NOW. A problem, but one you can never fully manage. And, a good problem to have. Don't underestimate Cook. He knew what he was doing with the faster rollout. Listen also to his CC comments on iPhone 5.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 19:15:36 GMT -8
iphone supply seems to be plentiful - While apple is taking 3-4 weeks to deliver online orders, it seems going through a telco channel means you can get one instantly or with a few days wait.
They are prioritising supply to the reseller channel - which I guess makes sense seeing as reseller locations amount to 10,000s of retails locations worldwide where people can actually walk into and hold a physical display model.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 19:16:29 GMT -8
The stock is definitely falling because of news of supply constraints of the iphone 5. I think Tim Cook really messed up this time by launching it in so many countries at once. They need to go back to the small staggered rollouts. Start with a small number of countries and then add more as production ramps up. I believe and trust that TC and company know what they are doing. Maybe they would lose more customers to others by delaying launches than they would with the wide launch. Customers in a country where they have the iPhone, but with a wait time may be more likely to wait than those same customers if they didn't have the iPhone in their country at all yet. As long as the demand holds up, supply constraints means money in the bank.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 19:21:44 GMT -8
"Deferred revenue." (I'll be here all week.)
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Post by mcharliem on Nov 8, 2012 19:24:32 GMT -8
I originally posted this on the night of Jun 20, 2011 on the old Mac Observer boards. I think it's as true now, as it was then. Just a reminder that we've seen this before.
Posted: 20 June 2011 05:59 PM
In trying to put this recent AAPL swoon into perspective, two classic Warren Buffet quotes come to mind. The first:
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it’s a weighing machine.â€
I’m not a big believer in technical analysis, but I am a believer that stocks trade with momentum and sometimes this momentum can create some crazy valuations. Sometimes it’s to the upside in a bubble, and sometimes it’s to the downside. It doesn’t matter that AAPL is severely undervalued at $315, all that matters on any given day is who is more aggressive, the buyers or the sellers. When the sellers are more aggressive, the price goes down. What’s important to remember is that the overwhelming majority of trading volume consists of people with very short time horizons (days or weeks) or extremely short time horizons (minutes or hours). They don’t care about AAPL’s earnings in 2012, all they care about are the odds they’ll be able to buy AAPL at a lower price than they sell it, and vice versa. It’s a high stakes game of chicken that goes on in pretty much every liquid trading market in the world. The end result is pricing that fluctuates wildly and on rare occasions creates opportunities of extremely mispriced valuations.
But as Buffet said, while this can happen in the short run, in the long run a security’s true value will always be revealed. The tough part is we don’t know how long these short term momentum swings will last, and how far they’ll go. This AAPL swoon could end tomorrow or it could end three months from now. It could be a gradual flattening out followed by a slow, consistent, rise, or it could be a sharp sudden jump that comes out of nowhere and never looks back. All we know is that in the long run, AAPL’s stock price will reflect its underlying value.
Now for the second quote, which is probably Buffett’s most famous quote of all:
“To be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.â€
While this swoon in AAPL can be downright depressing and even a little scary, the glass-half-full perspective is to look at this as an amazing opportunity to buy AAPL. Granted, that’s not much solace to someone who’s already gone all-in from $350, but even for those people, we can look at AAPL right now and know we own one of the best bargains we’ve ever seen in the stock market.
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Post by tradermac on Nov 8, 2012 19:29:36 GMT -8
Ms. iPad, how is your trading group doing? You mentioned they don't look at news, only TA. One would think TA is saying GTFO. But you also mentioned someone named Avi said early Nov would be back up the truck time, does he still think so?
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 19:35:44 GMT -8
"Deferred revenue." (I'll be here all week.) I hope for your sake, AAPL recovers, because your entertainment career could be in trouble......
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 19:35:52 GMT -8
Ms. iPad, how is your trading group doing? You mentioned they don't look at news, only TA. One would think TA is saying GTFO. But you also mentioned someone named Avi said early Nov would be back up the truck time, does he still think so? Avi backed the truck up and it fell in a hole.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 8, 2012 19:36:57 GMT -8
Silver nailed the voting demographics. Reaction to that...varies wildly. ;D But I think we should go back on topic. My point is why in hell can't someone like him nail the smartphone and tablet demographic. Forget that... can he be the Dallas Cowboy's new quarterback ? I'm tired of defending Romo ....
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Post by rosie on Nov 8, 2012 19:39:39 GMT -8
Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early. Our convoluted tax code. A loss is a damn loss. It is one of those rules that makes you wonder WTF are these people thinking. I'm new at all this but it is my understanding that you can claim a tax loss after selling if you wait 30 days to re purchase the same stock.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 8, 2012 19:40:21 GMT -8
Is there a 21 day period before you can buy back in the same stock, I was under the assumption there was a time period requirement but could not find the relavent regulation? Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early. There isn't any such rule for gains. And would everyone please refrain from posting Rocco Pendejo's nonsense? He already admitted he can't trade Apple, and he is clearly clueless on Apple fundamentals, so why would anyone think him relevant? It is truly unbelievable this guy has gotten so much attention. I'd love to debate his dumb ass on CNBC about Apple and expose him. Idiots like Pendejo make me want to start my own blog.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 8, 2012 19:47:12 GMT -8
Don't forget, this sell-off has nothing to do with the election. Can we drop this? No one is denying the market went down after the election. Was this response really necessary. Fawk
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Post by prazan on Nov 8, 2012 19:53:08 GMT -8
Why does a herd stampede? It might be falling rock. It might be the smell of a lion or a wolf. Or it might be that one critter decides it's time to bolt, which scared the one next to it, and so on, until the entire herd is running panicked. I have yet to read anything that logically explains this selloff, except the herd theory. And if the herd stampedes, it's best to get out of the way if you can, and to find a rock to hide behind if you can't.
Cobra posits that we saw an exhaustion bar today, which might indicate a rebound soon. Followed, however, by another leg down.
I agree with JD. Rocco Pendola is a mediocre investor at best.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 19:58:02 GMT -8
And would everyone please refrain from posting Rocco Pendejo's nonsense? Wait, I must be slow today. Is Pendejo his real name? OMG!
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Post by chasmac on Nov 8, 2012 20:00:49 GMT -8
Silver nailed the voting demographics. Reaction to that...varies wildly. ;D But I think we should go back on topic. My point is why in hell can't someone like him nail the smartphone and tablet demographic. Umm, he also nailed it in 2008 and in 2010 (when even the Dems didn't believe him). Smart guy.
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