Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 17:18:01 GMT -8
It's fine. It's taken to the politics thread though because so many are incapable of talking politics in a civil manner. iPad's policy, a wise carryover from AFB. Notice chas and MB playing nice on this thread? I wonder how much of this OTHER "tax selling" is still going on though. We're not in Kansas...or 700...or 600...or 550...anymore. Let's just get to the point, we're in AAPL's worst point selloff EVER. How many weak hands are left?!
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 17:20:16 GMT -8
Why are Gregg's post showing as Guest now? I think with all the grumpiness around here we must be reaching the lows. Of course I've been thinking that for 100 points already, so what do I know. He capitulated on us. Gregg, is a smart guy, but his Apple internal numbers crap annoys more than just me. His tone with Madmax was uncalled for. Most everyone here is hurting and Greg said he was out for the most part and touting his financial greatness. He should be on cloud nine and friendly, not acting the way he has. Gregg, does not like to be asked questions obviously.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 17:25:57 GMT -8
(...)And for all that think light political talk has no place on the board, Wake up and smell the roses, reality bites! A modicum of politics is relevant to any investing ideology. It should be tolerated, and welcomed, to a rather fine point of crossing the line. 2 pennies To be clear: NO ONE said we can't talk politics. We have entire threads (multiple) dedicated to politics.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 8, 2012 17:27:53 GMT -8
Walmart has the iPad2 for $399 + $75 Walmart gift card, for Thanksgiving evening. Guaranteed!
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 17:30:55 GMT -8
Was not sure where that article was going, but it was pretty good.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 17:34:04 GMT -8
Was not sure where that article was going, but it was pretty good. LOL! Me too! Then I got to the end and realized...hmmmm, sounds like a permabear calling BS on this sell-off...hmmmm, I kinda LIKE that.
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Post by alice on Nov 8, 2012 17:34:35 GMT -8
Ate there strong support levels below? How strong is $522 as support?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 17:34:54 GMT -8
Beware Rocco Pendola. Dude went permabear on AAPL.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 17:37:16 GMT -8
Ate there strong support levels below? How strong is $522 as support? Alice give me a bit, and I'll post a Hugs & Kisses chart with support levels. The issue here is that we're blowing through supposedly strong support levels. IMHO, it's margin liquidations (forced selling) causing this, and we have buyers waiting on the sidelines until the dust clears given that we're in falling knife mode and we've had so many false bottoms lately.
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Post by magictrackpad on Nov 8, 2012 17:38:21 GMT -8
Walmart has the iPad2 for $399 + $75 Walmart gift card, for Thanksgiving evening. Guaranteed!That would be an ok deal, if it were last years Thanksgiving maybe. You still have to end up shelling out $399, and the gift card can only be used at Walmart I'm assuming. I think that buying a full priced $329 iPad Mini is a far better deal. The only reason to get an iPad 2 is if somebody absolutely must have a 9.7" iPad. The iPad Mini has newer tech (lightning connecter), vastly improved cameras (the iPad 2 cameras are not good at all), and the iPad Mini weighs considerably less. The iPad Mini also has SIRI and Stereo speakers. The iPad 2 has none of those things.
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 8, 2012 17:42:23 GMT -8
lovemyipad,
I am very well aware of the dungeon, and the threads about politics thereof…
I am speaking to the intraday thread, and the all consuming attitude that no one shall talk politic shop… which is wrong IMHO, and should not only be relegated to the dungeon.
The entire history of the markets, has had a very prominent undertone to the politics of the day. Go back as far as you want. Tulips anybody?
My salient point is, that all political bent towards the effort of investing is wholly relevant, and should be allowed under the intraday thread's, if salient and cogent, and not dispersive/dirisive.
And until now, you have done a great job of keeping it that way. Some politics should, and could slip in here, as it is relevant to the intraday thread. Properly dispersed by the commentator/poster.
It does not all have a place in the dungeon… as it is very sanguine to what intraday is all about.
Within reasonable and non irrational reason. Politics and business are truly tied at the hip.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 17:46:41 GMT -8
Beware Rocco Pendola. Dude went permabear on AAPL. Mav, LOL, you need to click to page 2. He is long April calls. That is what lovey and I were laughing about, it had a happy ending.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 17:47:00 GMT -8
I think that's been the classical problem. People can't help but throw in a bit of perceived anathema to the other side in there. You're damn right politics has a place in the stock market. The problem is how the atmosphere gets...very quickly...when someone feels like their belief system just got attacked. Granted, the self-deleting of two members alleviates this somewhat.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 17:48:46 GMT -8
MB-wha?!? What's next, Eric buying LEAPs? World peace? A semi-palatable bipartisan accord on the fiscal cliff that spares the nation's credit rating?! No seriously that's a surprise to me
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 17:51:33 GMT -8
Macentropist, I agree with you. The tax issue is very relevant and political.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 8, 2012 17:56:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:00:54 GMT -8
My baseline estimate has iPhone getting to around 49M. Not _too_ aggressive even for a baseline IMHO - assumes normalized YOY growth of about 45% YOY if you assume a 13-week fiscal Q1 2012 would have yielded 92% of actual revs for the 14-week quarter.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 18:06:53 GMT -8
Bottom line. 49 million phones equates to 30 billion in revenue with high GM's, the 36% is not possible because the remaining 22 billion would have to have a 20-21% GM to get to 36%. not happening.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 18:07:53 GMT -8
Methinks we need Nate Silver. Very smart observation. Or maybe we do have some Nate Silvers (those like Brian White) but some people just don't want to listen to them. Many did not trust Nate Silver either, but he had data to back up his predictions and he was right.
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 8, 2012 18:18:24 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier? I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions. I began trading with $500 in November of 2004. My net worth today is well over $3,000,000 (post tax). In the interim I learned and changed my thinking several times. Each time getting closer to where I am today. What I espouse today is a refinement of things I began stating several months back. Specifically Investor Sentiment and Institutional Sentiment. What has changed for me as of today, is my ability to see the changes in that Sentiment real time (or very nearly so). I've laid out, it is up to the reader to agree, or disagree. But for me, the evidence is unequivocal. For the past couple of weeks the institutions have been in accumulation mode. They did not lose on the fall. To the contrary, they made money. How did they do that? Going back to the P/C ratio you can clearly see that somebody (and the biggest somebody out there are the institutions) was accumulating Puts up until Sept 21. On Sept 21 AAPL hit it ATH and began its current descent. Institutions believe in Apple's story, and the future of AAPL. LONG TERM. In the short term AAPL is going to be subject to Apple's short term performance (make or miss numbers). When, after doing their channel checks the Institutions saw that Apple was going to miss its numbers for the second consecutive quarter, they began accumulating PUTS. At the ATH they began selling shares, with AAPL dropping as a result. The drop increased the value of their PUTS such that they did not lose anything on the sell off, of which they participated. To the contrary, they used capital gained when selling at $700 to pay for shares PUT to them at $630. When AAPL hit $630 the institutions began accumulating Calls. In the numbers I've already posted, you can see the decline in Put OI interest that ended on 22 OCT. Since that date the institutions have been accruing Calls (it appears to be a mix of Jan 13 and Feb 13 Calls, I can't tell exactly because OX doesn't give me that much detail). The deal is that I do not cease learning from my mistakes, always seeking the knowledge I needed to make the last bad trade a success. It has taken time, and I ave always explained the reasoning for my beliefs. That reasoning has followed a consistent path of trying to understand, in advance of moves like this, what the institutions are doing. Like separately developed technologies, each needed to make the whole widget work, my efforts have yielded pieces of the overall picture, that now forms the whole. Each piece made my trades better, but not perfect. I will never achieve perfection BECAUSE I'm following the institutions. Now if they were to share with me what they are going to do, before they do it, I will achieve perfection. But I doubt that will ever happen. Thanks Greg. Enjoyed reading your logic.
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 8, 2012 18:19:47 GMT -8
Methinks we need Nate Silver. Very smart observation. Or maybe we do have some Nate Silvers (those like Brian White) but some people just don't want to listen to them. Many did not trust Nate Silver either, but he had data to back up his predictions and he was right. I am new here - Who is Nate Silver?
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 18:29:25 GMT -8
lovemyipad, I am very well aware of the dungeon, and the threads about politics thereofÂ… I am speaking to the intraday thread, and the all consuming attitude that no one shall talk politic shopÂ… which is wrong IMHO, and should not only be relegated to the dungeon. The entire history of the markets, has had a very prominent undertone to the politics of the day. Go back as far as you want. Tulips anybody? My salient point is, that all political bent towards the effort of investing is wholly relevant, and should be allowed under the intraday thread's, if salient and cogent, and not dispersive/dirisive. And until now, you have done a great job of keeping it that way. Some politics should, and could slip in here, as it is relevant to the intraday thread. Properly dispersed by the commentator/poster. It does not all have a place in the dungeonÂ… as it is very sanguine to what intraday is all about. Within reasonable and non irrational reason. Politics and business are truly tied at the hip. I kind of agree. Something veering political (as in us vs them) is like porn, can't always explain it but I know when I see it.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 18:31:03 GMT -8
"President Obama speaks at 1 p.m. ET Friday and he is expected to ask Congress to take steps to help the economy and reduce the deficit. Both Sen. Majority Leader Harry Read, D-Nev. and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, have indicated a willingness to compromise in remarks made after the election." My hope is that Obama tacks to the center and is willing to take a lead role in resolving the fiscal cliff problem. If he takes a new direction, the market will rally. If he does not, we will see another huge selloff. P.S. This is not intended to be a political post. www.cnbc.com/id/49750766
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 18:32:34 GMT -8
Institutions believe in Apple's story, and the future of AAPL. LONG TERM. In the short term AAPL is going to be subject to Apple's short term performance (make or miss numbers). When, after doing their channel checks the Institutions saw that Apple was going to miss its numbers for the second consecutive quarter, they began accumulating PUTS. At the ATH they began selling shares, with AAPL dropping as a result. The drop increased the value of their PUTS such that they did not lose anything on the sell off, of which they participated. Thanks Greg. Enjoyed reading your logic. I don't understand some of it, but I like that you still believe in the long term story. I am holding on with my dwindling account value.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:35:13 GMT -8
Bottom line. 49 million phones equates to 30 billion in revenue with high GM's, the 36% is not possible because the remaining 22 billion would have to have a 20-21% GM to get to 36%. not happening. Yep! Oppenheimer is using EPIC FRESH PRODUCT LAUNCH as cover for the low GM. Uncertainty or the hugb cost curve and all that. The revs tell the tale. Either my projected GM is about right or it's high because of the metric tons of iPads sold. Either way Apple's results turn out better than many fear.
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Post by newton on Nov 8, 2012 18:35:27 GMT -8
To the contrary, they used capital gained when selling at $700 to pay for shares PUT to them at $630. When AAPL hit $630 the institutions began accumulating Calls. In the numbers I've already posted, you can see the decline in Put OI interest that ended on 22 OCT. Since that date the institutions have been accruing Calls (it appears to be a mix of Jan 13 and Feb 13 Calls, I can't tell exactly because OX doesn't give me that much detail). Thanks your post was very informative. I'm a complete newbie and still learning about options. If the institutions are accruing calls now, I understand that means the big boys will push Apple back up. Is there a way to tell when they expect that to happen based on the option expiration dates they are buying.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 18:38:57 GMT -8
Macentropist, I agree with you. The tax issue is very relevant and political. The tax issue is indeed relevant and political. But discussion of investing and relevant tax issues does not require any discussion whatsoever of the underlying politics which give rise to the tax issues. That people do not understand this illustrates perfectly why a hard line should be taken against any discussion of politics in this thread.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 18:40:27 GMT -8
Don't forget, this sell-off has nothing to do with the election. FTR, I think the talk about people selling now for tax purposes is ridiculous. 2 months till end of year. One thing for sure, there has to be some margin selling going on.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:42:08 GMT -8
Correct!
We could have "glorious" and civil debates over taxes. But then someone says "lib", "last four years", or something else and then fireworks erupt.
I was there at AFB1. It was never pretty.
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Post by Iceage on Nov 8, 2012 18:43:03 GMT -8
Well, tonight I got my first real sign that this is about to turn around. My cousin called me and asked if it was time to buy AAPL. He's a long time investor but he never bought AAPL before because he knows nothing about Apple or technology. If he's ready to buy, a lot of buyers are about to jump in.
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