Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 10, 2016 3:31:48 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 10, 2016 4:54:36 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Just a reminder, please keep political discussion to the dungeon. Some people actually come here for the scintillating Apple Discussion. AMEN!
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Post by rezonate on Nov 10, 2016 5:35:17 GMT -8
What ever happened to iBeacons?
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 10, 2016 6:55:26 GMT -8
No offense to Since 84 but the first two links you posted involve politics and AAPL .... it's pretty much impossible to separate the two right now for investors. We don't have to be rude or demeaning towards each other but at the same time I'm not sure how we avoid the elephant in the room .
Cheers to the longs ......
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Post by tuffett on Nov 10, 2016 6:58:14 GMT -8
Hard to keep politics out of it when the presidency could have serious impacts on Apple's business. Another thing I'm worried about is if Apple will be able to maintain their stance on privacy and refusal to build backdoors. Trump has been very vocal and frequently speaks out against Apple. We can only hope that his repatriation and tax proposals go through while the nonsense remains suppressed.
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Post by macglenn on Nov 10, 2016 7:30:19 GMT -8
amzn, nflx taking a hit. What's going on?
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Post by mrentropy on Nov 10, 2016 7:43:12 GMT -8
All tech is getting eviscerated. RSI on AAPL is below 30, staggeringly oversold.
Edit: now at 31, bounced quickly
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Nov 10, 2016 7:46:17 GMT -8
Finally some of my orders to sell Jan '19 puts went through! Been waiting for weeks.
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Post by pauls on Nov 10, 2016 7:57:11 GMT -8
Among Trump's long list of "He can't be serious....can he?" promises, he has put Apple in his crosshairs on numerous occasions. The country (and market) will have a lot of anxiety and angst while waiting to see what is bluster and what is policy.
I agree with others, it is impossible to discuss Apple and the markets without including the new political direction this country has chosen. We elected a huge unknown and the markets will react accordingly.
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Post by rickag on Nov 10, 2016 8:20:02 GMT -8
Good read in both linked articles.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 10, 2016 8:23:28 GMT -8
No offense to Since 84 but the first two links you posted involve politics and AAPL .... it's pretty much impossible to separate the two right now for investors. We don't have to be rude or demeaning towards each other but at the same time I'm not sure how we avoid the elephant in the room . Cheers to the longs ...... There is a difference between a discussion of Apple and the impact of the current political climate on it, which for an investor is presumably relevant as today indicates, and a pro or con debate of said political climate. While the line is sometimes grey, it doesn't serve the purposes of this board when we degenerate into the later, particularly when it takes the form of snide remarks or name calling. It is worth noting that the traffic and commentary drops here when the former occurs. Having said that there have been political comments that have intrigued me. I follow up with personal messages to the individuals involved. I encourage others to do the same -- taking it offline or to the dungeon.
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Post by merenkov on Nov 10, 2016 8:45:47 GMT -8
Didn’t Trump propose a repatriation of US corporate profits by cutting the offshore tax rate to 10% (down from the current top corporate income tax rate of 35%)? That would be a yuge positive for Apple.
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Post by sponge on Nov 10, 2016 8:52:18 GMT -8
Ok I am going on the record that today's low is the bottom for the quarter. The only way we go lower is if the market reverses all the gains in the last 3 days.
I thought we could touch the 200, but I think we may have to wait for May.
I am all in. Transferred money to buy more.
This sell off in tech is like the sell off when the market thought he would win and sold off after the FBI letter. Over reaction.
Wait until Trump makes some statement about Apple that the market sees as positive.
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Post by sponge on Nov 10, 2016 8:53:54 GMT -8
Remember buy when RSI around 30 and sell when RSI is around 70. It only happens 3-4 times a year.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 10, 2016 9:08:27 GMT -8
Careful guys. We have gotten used to eight years of consistency, rationalism, and stability. The world can always get more dark and more panicky. It's quite possible that the next few years will see war, civil unrest, and protectionistic policies that are not good for the health of the free trade economy under which Apple has thrived, not to mention consumer confidence and disposable income for luxury goods.
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Post by sponge on Nov 10, 2016 9:17:33 GMT -8
I did not vote for Trump because he was too liberal. Other then reversing Obamacare and maybe spending more money on infrastructure after lowering corporate tax rates, not much will change. Congress will keep him from getting any other of his promises done. The sky is not falling.
If he does not get wages up and debt down, the same folks who voted him in will switch sides. That's how US presidential elections swing every 4 to 8 years.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 10, 2016 9:24:17 GMT -8
Didn’t Trump propose a repatriation of US corporate profits by cutting the offshore tax rate to 10% (down from the current top corporate income tax rate of 35%)? That would be a yuge positive for Apple. Yes, and he's also promised a 45% import tariff for products made outside of the USA (hint: iPhones). Huge negative that far outweighs a one-time repatriation break and a lower corporate tax rate. Perhaps one event is more likely than the other, but who really knows at this point?
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Post by macster on Nov 10, 2016 10:33:23 GMT -8
Didn’t Trump propose a repatriation of US corporate profits by cutting the offshore tax rate to 10% (down from the current top corporate income tax rate of 35%)? That would be a yuge positive for Apple. Yes, and he's also promised a 45% import tariff for products made outside of the USA (hint: iPhones). Huge negative that far outweighs a one-time repatriation break and a lower corporate tax rate. Perhaps one event is more likely than the other, but who really knows at this point? Highly unlikely that a tariff will put US companies at risk so that competing products have a advantage. So if gets slammed all imported phones/products will get slammed. Will see.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 10, 2016 10:55:44 GMT -8
Yes, and he's also promised a 45% import tariff for products made outside of the USA (hint: iPhones). Huge negative that far outweighs a one-time repatriation break and a lower corporate tax rate. Perhaps one event is more likely than the other, but who really knows at this point? Highly unlikely that a tariff will put US companies at risk so that competing products have a advantage. So if gets slammed all imported phones/products will get slammed. Will see. Yes, it will apply to all imports. I don't care about the effect to competitors, I care about the effect to Apple. If this comes to pass, there will be four possible outcomes: 1) Apple will manufacture in USA and maintain pricing, dramatically increasing costs and lowering profits 2) Apple will manufacture in USA and raise prices to offset costs, dramatically reducing sales and lowering profits. 2) Apple will pay the import tax and maintain pricing, dramatically lowering profits. 3) Apple will pay the import tax and raise prices to offset, dramatically reducing sales and dramatically lowering profits.
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Post by mace on Nov 10, 2016 12:19:56 GMT -8
Remember buy when RSI around 30 and sell when RSI is around 70. It only happens 3-4 times a year. Hidden bullish divergence from early Sep to now. RSI, and MACD. Move back above 100-day EMA.
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Post by mace on Nov 10, 2016 12:21:29 GMT -8
45% import tariff would put USA into a depression.
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Post by longsince98 on Nov 10, 2016 12:28:50 GMT -8
Highly unlikely that a tariff will put US companies at risk so that competing products have a advantage. So if gets slammed all imported phones/products will get slammed. Will see. Yes, it will apply to all imports. I don't care about the effect to competitors, I care about the effect to Apple. If this comes to pass, there will be four possible outcomes: 1) Apple will manufacture in USA and maintain pricing, dramatically increasing costs and lowering profits 2) Apple will manufacture in USA and raise prices to offset costs, dramatically reducing sales and lowering profits. 2) Apple will pay the import tax and maintain pricing, dramatically lowering profits. 3) Apple will pay the import tax and raise prices to offset, dramatically reducing sales and dramatically lowering profits. Respectfully, what this doesn't consider is that the same president who would push the tariffs thru would push the tax reform thru, which significantly complicates the topic. And I'd venture the tariff legislation will be a harder thing to pass than the tax reform which has much republican support. There's always potential gloom to weigh, but I prefer not to weigh the gloom in a vacuum.
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firestorm
Member
Posts: 1,190
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Post by firestorm on Nov 10, 2016 12:31:14 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Just a reminder, please keep political discussion to the dungeon. Some people actually come here for the scintillating Apple Discussion. AMEN! And no religion either! Tee Hee!
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 10, 2016 12:36:11 GMT -8
45% import tariff would put USA into a depression. Pretty much instantly because almost everything being sold here is imported.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 10, 2016 13:00:41 GMT -8
Yes, it will apply to all imports. I don't care about the effect to competitors, I care about the effect to Apple. If this comes to pass, there will be four possible outcomes: 1) Apple will manufacture in USA and maintain pricing, dramatically increasing costs and lowering profits 2) Apple will manufacture in USA and raise prices to offset costs, dramatically reducing sales and lowering profits. 2) Apple will pay the import tax and maintain pricing, dramatically lowering profits. 3) Apple will pay the import tax and raise prices to offset, dramatically reducing sales and dramatically lowering profits. Respectfully, what this doesn't consider is that the same president who would push the tariffs thru would push the tax reform thru, which significantly complicates the topic. And I'd venture the tariff legislation will be a harder thing to pass than the tax reform which has much republican support. There's always potential gloom to weigh, but I prefer not to weigh the gloom in a vacuum. Not a vacuum, I've already acknowledged the potentially huge benefits of a repatriation holiday and lower corporate tax rate. The point is there is a whole bunch of uncertainty right now and it is justified.
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Post by longsince98 on Nov 10, 2016 13:29:37 GMT -8
Respectfully, what this doesn't consider is that the same president who would push the tariffs thru would push the tax reform thru, which significantly complicates the topic. And I'd venture the tariff legislation will be a harder thing to pass than the tax reform which has much republican support. There's always potential gloom to weigh, but I prefer not to weigh the gloom in a vacuum. Not a vacuum, I've already acknowledged the potentially huge benefits of a repatriation holiday and lower corporate tax rate. The point is there is a whole bunch of uncertainty right now and it is justified. As an example of the topic getting significantly more complicated- Don't you feel that the increase in the relative low cost of labor as a % contribution to the phone build costs is massively offset at the bottom line from a 20% reduction in corp tax rate? Quick math suggests the savings in what they'd pay the government would massively dwarf the extra labor costs - which may be one way in which trumps "financial plan" may make sense. I could be wrong - I've not sat and crunched figures or anything.
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Post by mace on Nov 10, 2016 13:48:28 GMT -8
Bring iPhone manufacturing back to USA doesn't get many gainfully employed. Much of the manufacturing process is automated. And only need to bring back enough capacity to sell in USA. If I'm not wrong, those in midwest are not into hi-tech manufacturing, more like steel, paper milling, chemical, and clothes. So, shouldn't Trump is the one who should bring back his business to US.
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Post by rickag on Nov 10, 2016 14:08:39 GMT -8
45% import tariff would put USA into a depression. Agreed, and Donald Trump knows it despite his rhetoric. Look to the US to try and get other countries, including China, to stop or at least curtail monetary manipulation.
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Post by longsince98 on Nov 10, 2016 14:26:44 GMT -8
Bring iPhone manufacturing back to USA doesn't get many gainfully employed. Much of the manufacturing process is automated. And only need to bring back enough capacity to sell in USA. If I'm not wrong, those in midwest are not into hi-tech manufacturing, more like steel, paper milling, chemical, and clothes. So, shouldn't Trump is the one who should bring back his business to US. Completely on the same page.. just considering the results of him following thru with his rhetoric. And the result of what you're saying - if valid - would yield even less of a margin hit/cost increases. I will say that as the aggressively liberal person that I am, in a crappy two-party system, I'm forced choosing Dems because of social consciousness. But I find myself just in passive acceptance of their financial models. When forced to consider the potential reality of a "republican" Trump financial model, i can imagine the potential of actual (inadvertent?) social benefits of lower corp tax rates. One can imagine a quid pro quo benefit of "lower tax rates if you bring jobs back". While I've traditionally bought into the liberal / democratic trope of "paying your fair share" (which we should), I can say from personal experience as a very active entrepreneur/businessman that if I/my company paid millions less in taxes each year, I'd definitely be creating more business and job opportunities, as I do every time we feel more flush. Sorry for digressing off your initial post, but I felt it's in line with the general discussion in these days' threads - and it's been much on my mind after Tuesday's shocker.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 10, 2016 14:36:37 GMT -8
Patience ... there is rhetoric and there is reality. But I think most can all agree that an ego comes with the job and Mr. Trump's is quite large (for better or for worse). He will want to leave a Big Audacious Legacy. Patience. We "may" be pleasantly surprised at "some" of what he accomplishes in particular as it pertains to business. When Reagan was elected (ahem - yes I was alive and of voting age ) there were folks who called him an actor and a clown and were appalled. Now he is regarded as one of the best. We don't know what we don't know...have patience.
FYI - this was not a pro or con DJT endorsement - just trying to act like an adult (versus some of what I'm watching or reading about today in the media as the blame game continues). Pathetic.
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