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Post by prazan on Nov 19, 2012 10:35:19 GMT -8
Prazan, what are your iPhone ASP, Mac estimates, OpEx and tax rate ? I'm estimating iPhone ASP at $660, OpEx at $3,820, tax at 24.6%, and Macs at 5.5 million. All subject to revision, of course. I might be high on Macs, given how late the iMacs will be delivered in quarter.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 19, 2012 10:36:36 GMT -8
Is that your minimum number? I agree with Mav...I think we can beat 50 million. There are a ton of 4 and 4s models that will also be sold this quarter. Demand remains monstrous. How many can be put into the channel is the only question. Remember, we have a China Telecom launch in December too... IMO December will be a "we sold all we made" quarter for the most part. March quarter will hold the key, the fastest and most complete product porfolio launch will be telling. Hope demand was not pulled forward too much.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 19, 2012 10:42:52 GMT -8
BTW, a rather jarring piece by Florian Mueller of FOSS Patents on Apple today. I think it's largely bullshit, but I generally have respect for the guy's patent reporting. Mueller fails to make the point that Android is an utterly failed business model for Google, and that they are the one being devastated by the mobile revolution, regardless of market share. His conclusion is that only IP can save Apple. Thanks for posting this piece JD. While I know nothing about how these patent wars are fought, the author's logic is compelling and the ideas discussed go far, far beyond what usually passes for analysis of Apple's strategic business position. You state that the article ignores the fact that Android is an "utterly failed" business model for Google. Can you explain this? Not being argumentative here; I'd really like to be informed. I'll take a crack at that one. It's failed because it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who inherently want cheap or free technology and other products. Google is built on selling advertising on a per click basis to advertisers. The basic rate is in cents per click. That worked well with desktop computers where there was a lot of screen in which to deliver content surrounded by advertising. Google has never cared whether they got revenue from any of their products. Their model is to give away services and software in return for the personal information of those who use it. Google has used that personal information to provide advertisers with ad placements that target those who might be interested in the product being advertised. This has added value to their model and allowed them to charge more cents for each click. Eric Schmidt was Google's CEO and also a member of the Apple BOD when the iPhone and iOS were being developed. Schmidt recognized the threat to Google's model if Apple moved a substantial amount of search traffic to the small screens on mobile devices. These screens didn't have extra room for advertising without making the search results too small to read. He also saw that Google would be at the mercy of Apple's designs and policies when it came to displaying search results. Schmidt ran back to Google and secretly started the development of Android and lined up hardware suppliers to produce devices to use it. The major flaw with Android and Google's overall strategy is that it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who by definition want cheap or free technology, and don't spend much money on other products. The typical Android enthusiast is the same guy who in 1998 had a salvaged x86 mother board stuffed into a generic case, held together with duct tape, running a pirated version of Windows, and stolen games. These two factors, the difficulty of shoehorning ads into mobile screen space, and customers who are frugal spenders have driven Google's price per click advertising rates into the cellar in the last couple of years, and there's no bottom in sight at this point. And that's not all. Siri bypasses Google's search engine altogether, and Apple is acting more and more hostile by excluding Google's maps and YouTube apps from its new OS versions. Google's traffic is taking a major hit. Google has been coy about their sales and financial numbers, basically sidestepping any questions about declining revenue or declining ad rates. Meanwhile Google's share price and their P/E ratio soars, and their investors seem to be oblivious to the looming problems. Google could easily be the next Enron. The only problem with that scenario is that Enron bankrupted some of their direct competitors before they imploded. If you've ever played a game like Monopoly with a player who purposely lost just so you couldn't win you understand Apple's present position.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 19, 2012 10:54:32 GMT -8
If WS is expecting 49 million iPhones they are going to be surprised. I think the 4/4s are going to deliver some very strong unit sales with nice GM's. I am looking for 52 million iPhones. I think TC gave us a hint at the qtr when he emphasized the "look at revenue, not Peters ridiculous EPS number". You can't get to 52 million revenue without the iPhone being 49 million. It certainly seems this is the key bull hint for long term. Using 52 M, 39 GM and some moderating ASP numbers for iOS devices, $ 14.30 EPS is good.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 11:04:21 GMT -8
The monkey has been well and truly shocked to life!
(The rally monkey that is).
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Post by spoonman on Nov 19, 2012 11:05:04 GMT -8
If WS is expecting 49 million iPhones they are going to be surprised. I think the 4/4s are going to deliver some very strong unit sales with nice GM's. I am looking for 52 million iPhones. I think TC gave us a hint at the qtr when he emphasized the "look at revenue, not Peters ridiculous EPS number". You can't get to 52 million revenue without the iPhone being 49 million. Agree the 4S i still selling. I saw people in the Apple store buying it. It's unlocked and the iphone5 is not. Also one of my friends lost her phone but saw she could get a free iphone so picked one up. The 4S is still a really good phone and will keep selling. I finally feel better today. I haven't been sleeping well and i've been in a haze over the past 8 down weeks. I went to the apple store every day last week and stood there and observed like a crazy person just to make sure people were still buying apple products and liking them b/c based on the media you'd think the company was going out of business. I needed something to center myself.
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Post by awcabot on Nov 19, 2012 11:07:55 GMT -8
I'll take a crack at that one. It's failed because it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who inherently want cheap or free technology and other products. Thank you Zeke for an eloquent rebuttal.
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Post by rickag on Nov 19, 2012 11:10:23 GMT -8
If WS is expecting 49 million iPhones they are going to be surprised. I think the 4/4s are going to deliver some very strong unit sales with nice GM's. I am looking for 52 million iPhones. I think TC gave us a hint at the qtr when he emphasized the "look at revenue, not Peters ridiculous EPS number". You can't get to 52 million revenue without the iPhone being 49 million. Agree the 4S i still selling. I saw people in the Apple store buying it. It's unlocked and the iphone5 is not. Also one of my friends lost her phone but saw she could get a free iphone so picked one up. The 4S is still a really good phone and will keep selling. I finally feel better today. I haven't been sleeping well and i've been in a haze over the past 8 down weeks. I went to the apple store every day last week and stood there and observed like a crazy person just to make sure people were still buying apple products and liking them b/c based on the media you'd think the company was going out of business. I needed something to center myself. If I had the time I'd have been going to the Apple stores in the area too. Probably handing out literature to all customers in the benefits of buying AAPL, drumming up business so to speak.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 11:16:00 GMT -8
I caution everyone to stop working backwards to get to a target EPS number - apple is taking a big initial margin hit whenever it releases an all new iPhone design. The last time we had a December quarter with all new iPhone design (iPhone 4), the GM was 38.5% on guidance of 36%. Apple will definitely sell more iPhones compared to a year ago, but they will definitely also be with a lower gross margin than a year ago. iPads will also increase compared to a year ago, but the ASP will be significantly lower. The iPad mini is likely to cannibalise some amount of iPod touch sales also. Margins will definitely improve over the next quarters, and guidance will reflect that, just don't set yourself up for disappointment for Q1. Not aiming this at anyone, just trying to temper expectations
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 11:18:45 GMT -8
If WS is expecting 49 million iPhones they are going to be surprised. I think the 4/4s are going to deliver some very strong unit sales with nice GM's. I am looking for 52 million iPhones. I think TC gave us a hint at the qtr when he emphasized the "look at revenue, not Peters ridiculous EPS number". You can't get to 52 million revenue without the iPhone being 49 million. Agree the 4S i still selling. I saw people in the Apple store buying it. It's unlocked and the iphone5 is not. Also one of my friends lost her phone but saw she could get a free iphone so picked one up. The 4S is still a really good phone and will keep selling. I finally feel better today. I haven't been sleeping well and i've been in a haze over the past 8 down weeks. I went to the apple store every day last week and stood there and observed like a crazy person just to make sure people were still buying apple products and liking them b/c based on the media you'd think the company was going out of business. I needed something to center myself. You are not alone, Spoonman. I was okay for the first 5 or so weeks, thinking that we'll rebound just like any other quarter. But then the luke-warm earnings call, crashing through the 200 day, and the post-election/Capital gains selling, really messed me up. [We also had Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy thrown in here in NJ as a distraction and additional stressor.] Breaking below 580 was the difference here. I was really hoping we'd bounce, never realizing just how strong the downtrend was. Hopefully, that's behind us (but fingers are crossed).
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 11:24:01 GMT -8
I caution everyone to stop working backwards to get to a target EPS number - apple is taking a big initial margin hit whenever it releases an all new iPhone design. The last time we had a December quarter with all new iPhone design (iPhone 4), the GM was 38.5% on guidance of 36%. Apple will definitely sell more iPhones compared to a year ago, but they will definitely also be with a lower gross margin than a year ago. iPads will also increase compared to a year ago, but the ASP will be significantly lower. The iPad mini is likely to cannibalise some amount of iPod touch sales also. Margins will definitely improve over the next quarters, and guidance will reflect that, just don't set yourself up for disappointment for Q1. Not aiming this at anyone, just trying to temper expectations i think we understand that, it's just that we don't want to accept it. Because that picture isn't very pretty.
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Post by dougal on Nov 19, 2012 11:27:10 GMT -8
I'll take a crack at that one. It's failed because it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who inherently want cheap or free technology and other products. Thank you Zeke for an eloquent rebuttal. Thanks for your comments Zeke. More questions when the day winds down.
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Post by lance on Nov 19, 2012 11:27:40 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks TC meeting with Obama is enormous news. Of course for AAPL the stock this is technical move, short covering, and the oversold lift we have needed for the past month and we are 15-20% away from the stock being priced fairly again. But I think TC meeting with the president is enormously important for Apple over the next 4 years such as in US jobs, corporate taxes and repatriation. To me every instituition knows they need Apple to perform well over the next 4 years and so does the Fed's. Hopefully, TC was able to sway some pro apple reforms.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 11:31:24 GMT -8
BTW, a rather jarring piece by Florian Mueller of FOSS Patents on Apple today. I think it's largely bullshit, but I generally have respect for the guy's patent reporting. Mueller fails to make the point that Android is an utterly failed business model for Google, and that they are the one being devastated by the mobile revolution, regardless of market share. His conclusion is that only IP can save Apple. I really respect florian muellers work - his coverage of the patent wars and his ability to put legal things in plain English are excellent. Having said that, quite paradoxically he seems to know next to nothing about the apple business model in this off base article. I know for a fact he uses a galaxy note 5" phone with a stylus, so he has a slightly warped view of what phones the general public actually like using. Referring to Marketshare statistics from a quarter that is during an iPhone transition will always make android look better than it is, just like a quarter following an iPhone launch will always skew statistics apples way. In any case, apple has chosen to explicitly not go after the low end of the smartphone market, which will cost it Marketshare in the low end (where margins a slim). It's very evident from the ceasing of production of the iPhone 3GS. Apple could have continued selling this as its low end option (particularly in developing markets). Instead of keeping on selling the 3GS at a lower cost (it was selling for $375, and apple could have easily sold it for under $300) apple instead killed it and now its cheapest entry level iPhone is the 4, which retails for $450 - $75 higher than the 3GS sold for.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 11:32:36 GMT -8
Jason Schwarz adds to his AAPL position:
"With Apple now $50 off its Friday low, the stock appears to have put in a bottom. .. The path of least resistance is now to the upside. Every institution who has sold Apple since September 21st is now a nervous buyer.. about missing the upside.
We’re moving forward ... by purchasing another 25% allocation of AAPL April 2013 $600 calls and we’re also initiating a 5% allocation of AAPL January 2013 $540 calls."
He has invested 55% of his cash.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 11:35:10 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks TC meeting with Obama is enormous news. Of course for AAPL the stock this is technical move, short covering, and the oversold lift we have needed for the past month and we are 15-20% away from the stock being priced fairly again. But I think TC meeting with the president is enormously important for Apple over the next 4 years such as in US jobs, corporate taxes and repatriation. To me every instituition knows they need Apple to perform well over the next 4 years and so does the Fed's. Hopefully, TC was able to sway some pro apple reforms. The only thing I can see TC saying to Obama that would have any immediate effect would be a push for a cash repatriation tax break, apple could then pay a significant special dividend to shareholders, which together with other large companies doing the same would inject 100s of billions into the economy fast.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 11:46:26 GMT -8
Am I the only one who thinks TC meeting with Obama is enormous news. Of course for AAPL the stock this is technical move, short covering, and the oversold lift we have needed for the past month and we are 15-20% away from the stock being priced fairly again. But I think TC meeting with the president is enormously important for Apple over the next 4 years such as in US jobs, corporate taxes and repatriation. To me every instituition knows they need Apple to perform well over the next 4 years and so does the Fed's. Hopefully, TC was able to sway some pro apple reforms. The only thing I can see TC saying to Obama that would have any immediate effect would be a push for a cash repatriation tax break, apple could then pay a significant special dividend to shareholders, which together with other large companies doing the same would inject 100s of billions into the economy fast. I'm not a big fan of the special dividend, but that may be the only way for that money to be brought into this country. Also, if I am the president, I would be talking tax break, not tax holiday; we need the additional revenues. But then, if the total amount being repatriated is on the order of $50-75B, taxing at say 5% would result in $2.5-3.5B in revenue, which is the proverbially drop in the bucket. Applying this to other companies may get something meaningful, as well as allowing for the money to be used for "stuff" which could grow the economy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 19, 2012 11:52:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 11:54:24 GMT -8
Holy crap 562
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Post by piotroosh on Nov 19, 2012 11:56:10 GMT -8
Holy weee! Can we get a 10% day?
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Post by david on Nov 19, 2012 11:58:13 GMT -8
I'll take a crack at that one. It's failed because it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who inherently want cheap or free technology and other products. Thank you Zeke for an eloquent rebuttal. Mueller's point is that Apple's IP is Apple's crown jewels. Apple must continue the battle or risk letting iOS be cloned and thereby commoditized. Mueller did go off on a tangent with the old "market share is everything" argument to use it to support the crown jewels argument. And he did attack the "its the supply restraints, stupid" argument. But his thesis is the same as the title of his article: "Soft stance on patents would cost Apple's shareholders hundreds of billions of dollars". I can't imagine anyone here trying to "rebut" that.
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Post by appleiie on Nov 19, 2012 12:00:58 GMT -8
Obama may be offering a trade. He will cut a deal with House Ways and Means Chairman Camp: Repatriation of past foreign earnings, a territorial tax system for future foreign earnings and a lower corporate income tax rate. In exchange , the CEOs agree to support an individual income tax increase on those making over $250k/yr. and not ask for cuts to entitlements.
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Post by charles on Nov 19, 2012 12:01:12 GMT -8
Holy crap, sometimes you just have to get out of the way and watch in amazement!
It's great to be all in for a big move. It's just too bad I went all in at $650!
:-)
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 19, 2012 12:04:47 GMT -8
Holy weee! Can we get a 10% day? I'll settle for 7% (: It seems like we've had a few round number "ceilings" from EO's today but continuously broken through which seems to me as if those few EO's cannot keep the price action down / rangebound which bodes well for the rest of the week / year. Going to wait a few more days for more confirmation then I might screw the tax credit on my loss for the year and go almost all in.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 12:10:49 GMT -8
See, you didn't buy at the top....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 12:23:12 GMT -8
RG - wha? What's not to LIKE?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 12:24:28 GMT -8
RG - wha? What's not to LIKE? 563.25 and the shorts (any left?....) are dead, dead, dead. This looks like a major reentry move by the big boys. If they did not get in this morning, they can't not enter now in case this rocket just keeps moving upwards
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 12:26:38 GMT -8
Well I was talking Apple's super-savvy build for the future play which will affect Q1 2013 some.
As for AAPL today? "Baby I LIKE it!" (/embarassed look) (/Iglesias)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 12:35:00 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 12:40:11 GMT -8
MONSTER move.
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