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Post by alice on Jan 4, 2013 10:41:01 GMT -8
Because it is Friday, aapl will be kept down. I hope for a bounce Monday.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2013 10:46:24 GMT -8
I just don't know what to think about the possibility of 6 month cycles. Results like 3FQ12 ahead of the iPhone 5 release have been very unpleasant for the past couple of years. Will semi-annual cycles reduce that effect or just increase the number of them? Not sure I understand the strategy behind such a move. Opinions? Been thinking hard about this. it really depends on how the 6 month cycle are created. If they target a different customer segment e.g. if they introduce a lower end phone say iphone mini that targets mid tier and that gets refreshed on a annual cycle but with a Q2 launch. Then, there could be a new phone every 6th month. e.g. May 2013 iPhone mini launch Oct 2013 iPhone 5S launch May 2014 iPhone mini S launch Oct 2014 iPhone 6 launch or is one new iphone with refreshed every six months. Either way gross margin should not see the same level of pop as they change the mix and portfolio. Strategy wise is simple. Competition is catching up and put out phones faster and address the mid tier market. e.g. Samsung S4 will be out in Q2. How will AAPL decide to compete? In 2012, the S3 too a lot of share in the summer in europe and asia. North America seems to be more loyal to iPhones. Thanks, ibuyer and Mav for the replies. Another factor, which ibuyer mentioned, that concerns me is whether this strategy would result in greater annual capex investment (seems likely to me) and the associated effect on margins, which WS seems to have a hard time digesting.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 10:46:58 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 10:56:57 GMT -8
Sorry referenced in multiple places but the sources are the same.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 10:57:45 GMT -8
Yoga isn't working. Moving on to heavy drinking. After that, find a DB analyst to torture.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 10:59:06 GMT -8
Because it is Friday, aapl will be kept down. I hope for a bounce Monday. I think you might be right Alice. I am always amazed at the negativity on Fridays. DOW is up a little and we are down over 2.5% sickening.
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Post by lobo on Jan 4, 2013 11:03:01 GMT -8
Got a flashback to Animal House with that statement:
I can see Bluto and Otter walking into my office as I watch Apple melt down.
Bluto: [thrusting six-pack into Flounder's hands] My advice to you is to start drinking heavily. Otter: Better listen to him, Flounder, he's in pre-med.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2013 11:03:19 GMT -8
The way aapl trades is just criminal. I can't believe we are still down here near 4x cash. Anything below 600 is just plain wrong
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 4, 2013 11:03:46 GMT -8
Thanks, ibuyer and Mav for the replies. Another factor that concerns me is whether this strategy would result in greater annual capex investment (seems likely to me) and the associated effect on margins, which WS seems to have a hard time digesting. If the company convinces that the market opportunity will bring greater incremental revenues/net income without killing the exisiting line, then investors will be ok. R&D and CapEx is needed to creat new products. Key is return on investment.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 11:09:20 GMT -8
Because it is Friday, aapl will be kept down. I hope for a bounce Monday. I think you might be right Alice. I am always amazed at the negativity on Fridays. DOW is up a little and we are down over 2.5% sickening. Actually my greatest concern at this point is if the market has even the slightest correction we will probably go along for that ride too. Sentiment is so bad on the technicals right now we aren't given any benefit of doubt. At the risk of sounding like Mr. Pissy Bad Man, if the TA sentiment does not turn around I'm loosing confidence earnings are going to matter 48 hours after earnings. I am still pissed about what happened in Apr 2012 earnings. The PE compared to others, the PEG, the sheer revenue number, nothing seems to matter.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 4, 2013 11:09:56 GMT -8
I may roll my Jan 550/560 BCS over to the following week so it's post earnings. But I'll see what happens first on Monday. I have mismanaged these to the max.
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Post by rickag on Jan 4, 2013 11:17:01 GMT -8
I rolled my Jan 13 610/620s up and out to Mar 13 630/640s bought some additional to bring the cost basis down to $3.18. Figured the 610/620s were a lost cause and am now praying for blowout earnings and guidance. This was my last bullets, I now am on the sidelines watching.
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Post by alice on Jan 4, 2013 11:19:33 GMT -8
I have mismanaged to the max also.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 4, 2013 11:23:03 GMT -8
Positive (bullish divergence) all over the place in multiple timeframes. IMHO / WAG: buyable dip here.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 4, 2013 11:23:05 GMT -8
I have mismanaged to the max also. I think many small investors are well under water (including myself). I did manage to pick up a small amount of shares in the very low 500's, but the bulk of my holdings are above 600 so I am screwed unless this ship turns around. No powder left. For now I have to just wait it out and pray. It is extremely frustrating seeing how other stocks are trading like GOOG and AMZN when you know Apple is a better company. There may be other factors here in play such as Wall Street types not liking Apple Management or other personal factors....who knows.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 4, 2013 11:24:11 GMT -8
I rolled my Jan 13 610/620s up and out to Mar 13 630/640s bought some additional to bring the cost basis down to $3.18. Figured the 610/620s were a lost cause and am now praying for blowout earnings and guidance. This was my last bullets, I now am on the sidelines watching. I like this fix. Good job.
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Post by alice on Jan 4, 2013 11:25:12 GMT -8
No money to buy the dip.
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Post by prazan on Jan 4, 2013 11:27:18 GMT -8
I just don't know what to think about the possibility of 6 month cycles. Results like 3FQ12 ahead of the iPhone 5 release have been very unpleasant for the past couple of years. Will semi-annual cycles reduce that effect or just increase the number of them? Not sure I understand the strategy behind such a move. Opinions? MAYBE introduce a new iPhone line, the way iPad mini sprouted from iPad. Have a hard time seeing this one right now though. The 4 and 4S are still out there and each is a strong product in its relative weight class. In the current cycle of a refresh every year and a major update every two years, sales crater mid-cycle. We've seen that happen a couple of times now. Plus, competition is intensifying, even in the upper ends of the market. The argument for a six-month refresh cycle is to keep the best and newest technology in the hands of the consumer. GM isn't always fixed in time. Apple has gone from selling 20 million iPhones in 2009 to 154 million iPhones in 2012 (FY basis). I suspect improvements in GM scale sharply with that high a number of units. The argument against is the supply chain nightmare of a major product refresh in half the amount of time. But TC is the master of this, so if anyone can do it, he can. And look at the number of phones Samsung introduces each year. I suspect Apple, with it's "maniacal focus" can design, manufacture, and distribute significant new iterations on a bi-annual basis. Not significant by tech press standards, of course, a body that will be happy only when Apple invents a phone that will make the user fly without wings, but good enough for the buying public. Another argument against is the diminishment of the buzz factor. It's harder to promote the phone as the next big thing every six months. So maybe the six-month refresh will be a quieter affair, on the order of the recent iPad (non mini) refreshes.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 11:28:16 GMT -8
I have mismanaged to the max also. I think many small investors are well under water (including myself). I did manage to pick up a small amount of shares in the very low 500's, but the bulk of my holdings are above 600 so I am screwed unless this ship turns around. No powder left. For now I have to just wait it out and pray. It is extremely frustrating seeing how other stocks are trading like GOOG and AMZN when you know Apple is a better company. There may be other factors here in play such as Wall Street types not liking Apple Management or other personal factors....who knows. Frustrating yes. Reports that Windows 8 failing to ignite PC sales all over the place. Apple will have the best qtr in history. MSFT down 1.34% Apple down 2.64%. What's next? Cross specie copulation in the streets. Bizarre just bizarre.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 4, 2013 11:28:30 GMT -8
I'm leaning toward the suspicion that Apple is going to refresh the iPhone every 6 months I thought that was a given. I vaguely remember one of the senior figures at Apple saying something along the lines of there being a much faster product cycle in the phone industry. So, every year you get an all new model, and halfway through the year it gets tweaked in some way to freshen it up.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 4, 2013 11:30:05 GMT -8
Because it is Friday, aapl will be kept down. I hope for a bounce Monday. It seems like there is some angst over possible product announcments at CES next week. I wonder if there will be a relief rally if no real competitive products are announced.
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Post by prazan on Jan 4, 2013 11:32:31 GMT -8
I'm leaning toward the suspicion that Apple is going to refresh the iPhone every 6 months I thought that was a given. I vaguely remember one of the senior figures at Apple saying something along the lines of there being a much faster product cycle in the phone industry. So, every year you get an all new model, and halfway through the year it gets tweaked in some way to freshen it up. John Sculley talked about it. Horace mentioned it here: www.asymco.com/2012/12/06/does-s-stand-for-spring/
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Post by fas550 on Jan 4, 2013 11:38:20 GMT -8
Positive (bullish divergence) all over the place in multiple timeframes. IMHO / WAG: buyable dip here. Ms iPad make it go away, make it go away, please make it stop. Weep, weep, weep weep. :-(. Can Elliott help with that wave thing? Tell him we need a Tsunami right now. Fibonacci oh yeah we need his help too. I understand he came up with his theory studying rabbits. Forget rabbits they know how to multiply, we need his ass in the market.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 11:42:02 GMT -8
fas, soon you will join the tin foil hat club. The market is irrational, not just AAPL. I agree about the tie with the overall market. We seem to get all of its bad and just a little of its good. The DOW is up 500 points this week, AAPL 18. Usually AAPL outperforms the markets, now we are luck to just have a green day. Look at all those black candles over the last 6 months, that is just not right.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 11:44:34 GMT -8
I rolled my Jan 13 610/620s up and out to Mar 13 630/640s bought some additional to bring the cost basis down to $3.18. Figured the 610/620s were a lost cause and am now praying for blowout earnings and guidance. This was my last bullets, I now am on the sidelines watching. Rick, I am right thee with you. The pain is more than I could have ever of imagined.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 4, 2013 11:45:21 GMT -8
I'm leaning toward the suspicion that Apple is going to refresh the iPhone every 6 months I thought that was a given. I vaguely remember one of the senior figures at Apple saying something along the lines of there being a much faster product cycle in the phone industry. So, every year you get an all new model, and halfway through the year it gets tweaked in some way to freshen it up. The iPad refresh in November would suggest that this is a very probable scenario. This is why the DB report was pure BS, even if it's true. Cut the orders on the 5 because you're in the process of getting the chain ready to produce the 5S much quicker than everyone anticipated. The point is that nobody knows except upper management at Apple. These idiots and their sources can F off.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 11:50:34 GMT -8
Positive (bullish divergence) all over the place in multiple timeframes. IMHO / WAG: buyable dip here. I saw them start to appear, but have little faith. The weekly is going to show "up" for the week, but this is one crappy up week. Note to self, if you have 45 points up in 2 days, GTFO. Just sayin, I blew it again. Sad part is I just watched it happen all the while expecting it to happen.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 4, 2013 11:58:33 GMT -8
A little more colour on iPhone sale next quarter: 2:45 PM, Jan 04. A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. U.S. analyst Chris Whitmore thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) imply upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to his FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 4, 2013 11:59:51 GMT -8
Positive (bullish divergence) all over the place in multiple timeframes. IMHO / WAG: buyable dip here. I saw them start to appear, but have little faith. The weekly is going to show "up" for the week, but this is one crappy up week. Note to self, if you have 45 points up in 2 days, GTFO. Just sayin, I blew it again. Sad part is I just watched it happen all the while expecting it to happen. I would think that any funds looking to get long for the run to AAPL earnings, has got to be starting to load up about this far out.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 4, 2013 12:04:22 GMT -8
I saw them start to appear, but have little faith. The weekly is going to show "up" for the week, but this is one crappy up week. Note to self, if you have 45 points up in 2 days, GTFO. Just sayin, I blew it again. Sad part is I just watched it happen all the while expecting it to happen. I would think that any funds looking to get long for the run to AAPL earnings, has got to be starting to load up about this far out. Well they can buy at about 2.2% cheaper than yesterday....funnily enough GOOG is UP about 2.3% and we are DOWN about 2.3%. Stupid. Maybe I should buy GOOG and AMZN and short AAPL.
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