Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 4, 2013 23:25:44 GMT -8
I bet if Maps was Google Maps for Android-like, or was labeled beta like it should've been, CR would've given iPhone 5 (which wasn't given that stupid comparative score rating as of the October review) a couple extra points. Anyway, it's hip to not call Apple #1 (even though it's really just cliche), as if Apple cares. I don't care for CR, but in this case, it's Blodget warping the numbers. It's Blodget, case closed.
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macorange
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My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Jan 5, 2013 4:16:37 GMT -8
Which should have a higher PE, KO or AAPL?
AAPL's growth opportunities are so vastly better than KO, that to give them the same PE would necessarily imply that AAPL's risk of business downturn is vastly greater than KO. And since the market currently assigns a MUCH higher PE to KO, that necessarily implies a near certainty of AAPL business downturn.
Believing that Apple's business is at great risk is not irrational, and in conversations I have, I believe it to be the majority view. Everyone has seen electronics companies rise and fall, as the next hot product unseats the previous hot product. Most people still admire the iPhone, but they assume that it's dominance could crumble at any time.
I don't. Most of us here don't, but we are in the minority. The reason we don't is that we get that what makes Apple strong is not just the design of a phone, but the following unique assets:
1) customer satisfaction, which breeds intense loyalty 2) Brand value 3). Ecosystem stickiness 4). The unparalleled sales and service advantages of the Apple Stores 5). An incredible supply chain and overall ability to deliver hefty profits on what they sell
When Motorola was flying high in phones, it had NONE of these things going for it. It was ripe for the pickings. Ditto Nokia. Even the great Sony in its heyday didn't really have number 1, and never had numbers 3 and 4. People greatly admired Sony products, but if another well designed product came along, most people were open to switching.
My continued investment in AAPL is not one iota predicated on a hope and prayer that AAPL will continue to bring out wildly innovative products and its competitors won't. I hold AAPL solely because its PE implies a risk of business downturn that must discount numbers 1 through 5 far beyond what I believe their value to be.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 5, 2013 4:18:38 GMT -8
I bet if Maps was Google Maps for Android-like, or was labeled beta like it should've been, CR would've given iPhone 5 (which wasn't given that stupid comparative score rating as of the October review) a couple extra points. Anyway, it's hip to not call Apple #1 (even though it's really just cliche), as if Apple cares. I don't care for CR, but in this case, it's Blodget warping the numbers. It's Blodget, case closed. If you read my post I caveated it with that the source was Business Insider but I posted for 2 reasons - they were referencing CR and they were tweeting it out to tens of thousands. I agree it's BI but I would love to know how Blodget is able to somehow twist the information and not get called out on it. Wish I knew of a way of bringing attention to their reporting. Would love to expose them in some way... By the way - I am all over Twitter this morning calling him out and posting the CNET article and questioning his ethics...hope I get a response
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Post by Lstream on Jan 5, 2013 6:02:54 GMT -8
The perverted part of all this is that I am pretty sure I read something a while back where Blodgett said he does this crap on purpose. He likes to rile up Apple backers. So he is likely gratified that you are doing this.
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Post by macwire on Jan 5, 2013 6:06:31 GMT -8
God. I'm still so fucking bitter.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 6:37:14 GMT -8
The perverted part of all this is that I am pretty sure I read something a while back where Blodgett said he does this crap on purpose. He likes to rile up Apple backers. So he is likely gratified that you are doing this. Blodgett doesn't mind being wrong but he fears being irrelevant
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 7:38:45 GMT -8
Just an FYI about Put/calls for yesterday Put Volume: 400,378 contracts Call Volume: 567,889 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.71
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 5, 2013 7:41:41 GMT -8
Which should have a higher PE, KO or AAPL? AAPL's growth opportunities are so vastly better than KO, that to give them the same PE would necessarily imply that AAPL's risk of business downturn is vastly greater than KO. And since the market currently assigns a MUCH higher PE to KO, that necessarily implies a near certainty of AAPL business downturn. Believing that Apple's business is at great risk is not irrational, and in conversations I have, I believe it to be the majority view. Everyone has seen electronics companies rise and fall, as the next hot product unseats the previous hot product. Most people still admire the iPhone, but they assume that it's dominance could crumble at any time. I don't. Most of us here don't, but we are in the minority. The reason we don't is that we get that what makes Apple strong is not just the design of a phone, but the following unique assets: 1) customer satisfaction, which breeds intense loyalty 2) Brand value 3). Ecosystem stickiness 4). The unparalleled sales and service advantages of the Apple Stores 5). An incredible supply chain and overall ability to deliver hefty profits on what they sell When Motorola was flying high in phones, it had NONE of these things going for it. It was ripe for the pickings. Ditto Nokia. Even the great Sony in its heyday didn't really have number 1, and never had numbers 3 and 4. People greatly admired Sony products, but if another well designed product came along, most people were open to switching. My continued investment in AAPL is not one iota predicated on a hope and prayer that AAPL will continue to bring out wildly innovative products and its competitors won't. I hold AAPL solely because its PE implies a risk of business downturn that must discount numbers 1 through 5 far beyond what I believe their value to be. That's just an awesome post! If you took the current smartphone market share and froze it for say 3 yrs, AAPL would still come out very well. Who really thinks another company is going to take any share from Apple? I think quite the contrary due to your 5 reasons listed above.
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Post by roni on Jan 5, 2013 8:41:30 GMT -8
KO has increased dividends for the past 50 years. The average 10 year dividend growth rate is 9.8%.
Those are pretty good pay raises for income investors. There are lots of folks who are happy to pay to hire a company that gives them that kind of annual pay raise for merely holding the shares.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 5, 2013 8:42:53 GMT -8
Alice, discard any theories about innovation, SJ, taxes, what ever and this is why, look at KO. Good old Coke, member of the DOW. The last time they "innovated" was when they introduced "new" coke. LOL They have not grown earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, a 166B market cap and 7% future projected 5 year growth. It trades at a 19 p/e. The reason, cash flow and worldwide consumption. They have no new markets to penetrate. the only way they can actually grow earnings is to buy earnings. If Apple just has 10% growth over the next 5 years it will have over 300 billion in cash. (all depends on the dividend) Large maturing companies usually earn at least a 14 p/e. The stock is under attack, plain and simple. I will not go into my tin foil hat thoughts. It just is irrational. People aren't going to stop drinking coke. It's been popular for more than a hundred years. The iPhone is basically apples backbone now, and its only existed for 5 years, and it would be a brave soul who says it will still be popular in 15 years time. People will cite the iPod as an example of what can happen to a supposedly mega popular apple product (its now dying a slow death), and say the same will happen to the iPhone, and that's their reason for a low valuation multiple. No one values apples DNA and its ability to turn out new product lines to replace its old. There's no room for faith on Wall Street "The iPhone is the best iPod we've ever made." -- Steve Jobs 15 years from now I believe there will still be an iPhone just as there is still an iPod in every iPhone.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 5, 2013 8:44:41 GMT -8
Just an FYI about Put/calls for yesterday Put Volume: 400,378 contracts Call Volume: 567,889 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.71 Anybody want to pile on ? Trends, implications ?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 9:05:53 GMT -8
Just an FYI about Put/calls for yesterday Put Volume: 400,378 contracts Call Volume: 567,889 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.71 Anybody want to pile on ? Trends, implications ? As an FYI this hasn't changed much in the past week. The ratio has not gone above 1 for some time. (Read there always seems to be more puts). Gregg has studied this more than me. I just put it out there because of how bad yesterday ended up being, the puts are still less.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 5, 2013 9:16:21 GMT -8
A hazardous question ahead, I know in this political climate, but it has been useful in the past.
AAPL is currently at 527. Which will we see first, 500 or 560 ?
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Post by terps530 on Jan 5, 2013 9:49:17 GMT -8
I think the P/C ratio has been around .67 or so recently, so .71 means some more puts most recently.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 5, 2013 10:02:39 GMT -8
Correct. BI sucks and Blodget is evil. Please stop linking to these link baiting (insert euphemism for world's oldest profession that doesn't get my post censored here)'s. I don't want to hear "but we need to hear the bad news too." Nonsense. BI is blatantly dishonest, and just out for the hits. As if we'll have a shortage of Apple FUD stories without them! BI are scum, scum, scum. I'd seriously like to meet that weasel Jay Yarrow in a dark alley to have a rational, adult discussion. (kloot, I had to dig into this a little more, so here's the answer right here.) phoebear! I'm compelled to point out this is FRIGGIN' BUSINESSINSIDER! We should try to link to them as never as possible. Also, CONTEXT. I'm guilty of this on this count too, so for me to make up for it I gotta make it crystal clear for everyone's benefit: If you've read Consumer Reports recently, this says it all. If you're NOT familiar, here's what it means: It's the third top-rated phone by CR on AT&T and Sprint. CR rates at least three smartphones higher on Verizon. Does NOT mean CR hates it! (And I'm no fan of CR.) For a blogger to draw any variation of a "worst phone" conclusion from the CR data, even to try and hedge it like "worst of the best" as Blodget did, barely, is straight-up dishonest.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 5, 2013 10:02:52 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 5, 2013 10:11:15 GMT -8
People aren't going to stop drinking coke. It's been popular for more than a hundred years. The iPhone is basically apples backbone now, and its only existed for 5 years, and it would be a brave soul who says it will still be popular in 15 years time. People will cite the iPod as an example of what can happen to a supposedly mega popular apple product (its now dying a slow death), and say the same will happen to the iPhone, and that's their reason for a low valuation multiple. No one values apples DNA and its ability to turn out new product lines to replace its old. There's no room for faith on Wall Street "The iPhone is the best iPod we've ever made." -- Steve Jobs 15 years from now I believe there will still be an iPhone just as there is still an iPod in every iPhone. Exactly. When Apple is the one doing the creative destruction of its own products, that's a hell of a lot different than the iPod killing CD's and their players. Apple has been so consistently innovative for so long, we have to start counting the times it has creatively destroyed its own creative destruction. See also, PC's. Heard a great quote from the guy hired to make AT&T more innovative, John Donovan: "Invention is creating something new. Innovation is where you consummate things with the customer." Good ideas are useless without a market to sell them into. This is the genius of Steve Jobs and Apple that so many simpleton Apple observers* don't understand. *Not referring to anyone here (unless a BI writer is lurking).
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 10:17:30 GMT -8
That is funny. I have thought this a few times that you never hear about a raid on a MSFT store. Also I'll tell you what's funny but a little sad. Look over past posts when we at say 650 to see what people were saying on the price action. Ah if only we knew then what we know now. Anyway as we had little price increases people would say things like: This looks like this is it, bull run coming. Yeah we might see 610 but that's it. I had a good laugh, especially at myself. Shows how human we are after all.
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Post by rosie on Jan 5, 2013 10:20:00 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jan 5, 2013 11:49:29 GMT -8
That is funny. I have thought this a few times that you never hear about a raid on a MSFT store. Also I'll tell you what's funny but a little sad. Look over past posts when we at say 650 to see what people were saying on the price action. Ah if only we knew then what we know now. Anyway as we had little price increases people would say things like: This looks like this is it, bull run coming. Yeah we might see 610 but that's it. I had a good laugh, especially at myself. Shows how human we are after all. I've read through the threads when we were near $700. Interesting indeed.
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Post by sponge on Jan 5, 2013 13:07:56 GMT -8
aapl made buying on weakness money flow table.
most chart readers see a move upward after an initial drop on Monday.
I still think we will see a nice run up into earnings after OE.
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Post by Rupert on Jan 5, 2013 14:10:58 GMT -8
Nansen and SchwarzQuotes from Jason Schwarz yesterday... "The reason why we use Apple as an investment vehicle is because it has a rock bottom valuation compared to its stellar fundamentals. This rare tonic makes Apple the safest play on Wall Street. The low valuation is what allows AAPL to trade as its own asset class. I’ve often repeated what I consider to be the most amazing stat of our era...Apple’s fiscal 2012 profits were $7 billion larger than Google, Amazon, Microsoft, eBay, Yahoo and Facebook combined. That stat is so amazing to me because it is a direct contradiction to the noise we get bombarded with in the media. However, even I’ll admit that days like today make you question the whole thing." "True bottoms have a way of making you question the very air that you breathe. Until today, I worried that this kind of gut wrenching, soul searching event had yet to happen for me personally. Now that it’s happened, we’ll see if this subjective analysis manifests itself in the market. Perhaps the psychological bottom is forming right now. What’s another two weeks of patience for someone who has waited months? Has Apple ceased to be Apple? Is the guaranteed bounce a thing of the past? We’re about to find out. January 23, 2012 is a big day. I want to say it’s the most important day in Apple’s history but it isn’t. We’ve seen this movie before. January 24, 2011 was eerily similar. Now that the Schwarz pain indicator has gone off, maybe this stock is ready to break out. The next few weeks will be telling. Some things aren’t worth the pain. This one is." Nick Nansen: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent….Shakespeare on Apple Posted on January 4, 2013 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/Questions to be answered; 1. Did Wall Street get it wrong. 2. Will the Mega Run ever arrive. 3. Is the Apple run over. Both seem to be saying Jan 23rd 2013 is make it or break it for Apple. We'll see in two weeks, good luck to all.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 5, 2013 14:27:39 GMT -8
Nansen and SchwarzQuotes from Jason Schwarz yesterday... "The reason why we use Apple as an investment vehicle is because it has a rock bottom valuation compared to its stellar fundamentals. This rare tonic makes Apple the safest play on Wall Street. The low valuation is what allows AAPL to trade as its own asset class. I’ve often repeated what I consider to be the most amazing stat of our era...Apple’s fiscal 2012 profits were $7 billion larger than Google, Amazon, Microsoft, eBay, Yahoo and Facebook combined. That stat is so amazing to me because it is a direct contradiction to the noise we get bombarded with in the media. However, even I’ll admit that days like today make you question the whole thing." "True bottoms have a way of making you question the very air that you breathe. Until today, I worried that this kind of gut wrenching, soul searching event had yet to happen for me personally. Now that it’s happened, we’ll see if this subjective analysis manifests itself in the market. Perhaps the psychological bottom is forming right now. What’s another two weeks of patience for someone who has waited months? Has Apple ceased to be Apple? Is the guaranteed bounce a thing of the past? We’re about to find out. January 23, 2012 is a big day. I want to say it’s the most important day in Apple’s history but it isn’t. We’ve seen this movie before. January 24, 2011 was eerily similar. Now that the Schwarz pain indicator has gone off, maybe this stock is ready to break out. The next few weeks will be telling. Some things aren’t worth the pain. This one is." Nick Nansen: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent….Shakespeare on Apple Posted on January 4, 2013 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/Questions to be answered; 1. Did Wall Street get it wrong. 2. Will the Mega Run ever arrive. 3. Is the Apple run over. Both seem to be saying Jan 23rd 2013 is make it or break it for Apple. We'll see in two weeks, good luck to all. Actually, Schwarz seems to be saying the opposite, i.e., AAPL's rise is inevitable due to its cash factory. A company cannot continue to profit 10's of billions every quarter and continue to have its P/E go down forever. Apple is up week-over-week, $18 off the fiscal cliff lows, and yet everyone here is in despair. Perhaps that is a reflection of the options gambler mentality that prevails here, instead of Apple being broken forever. It's the same thing here every week - hoping against hope that you can beat the weekly options wall. Don't fight the rape. Buy Friday. Sell Wednesday. Rinse and repeat.
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Post by Xphilos on Jan 5, 2013 14:29:11 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2013 14:36:31 GMT -8
Usually, I look forward to ER. My hope is to see good ER and aapl to hit 600+. Will good ER move aapl up? In the good old days, I would say 'yes, definitely' but now is a question mark. I have waited and held on this long, so I will continue to wait and hope for better days by ER. Alice (and everyone else fretting this Earnings Report). AAPL didn't get here overnight. There were several external factors along the way, but the primary factor has been Apple missing its quarterlies 5 times in the last 2 years (8 quarters). Many here don't believe, but WS does, just look at the "irrational levels" that AAPL has been trading for so long. I am confident that Apple is going to report earnings that will buoy WS confidence in its ability to perform, but to regain the confidence lost during the past few years. I'm more interested in Apple's March quarter guidance, and how well they do against that. Apple beats March guidance, then guides aggressively for the June quarter and you'll see some fireworks.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 5, 2013 14:50:22 GMT -8
Correct. BI sucks and Blodget is evil. Please stop linking to these link baiting (insert euphemism for world's oldest profession that doesn't get my post censored here)'s. I don't want to hear "but we need to hear the bad news too." Nonsense. BI is blatantly dishonest, and just out for the hits. As if we'll have a shortage of Apple FUD stories without them! BI are scum, scum, scum. I'd seriously like to meet that weasel Jay Yarrow in a dark alley to have a rational, adult discussion. (kloot, I had to dig into this a little more, so here's the answer right here.) phoebear! I'm compelled to point out this is FRIGGIN' BUSINESSINSIDER! We should try to link to them as never as possible. Also, CONTEXT. I'm guilty of this on this count too, so for me to make up for it I gotta make it crystal clear for everyone's benefit: If you've read Consumer Reports recently, this says it all. If you're NOT familiar, here's what it means: It's the third top-rated phone by CR on AT&T and Sprint. CR rates at least three smartphones higher on Verizon. Does NOT mean CR hates it! (And I'm no fan of CR.) For a blogger to draw any variation of a "worst phone" conclusion from the CR data, even to try and hedge it like "worst of the best" as Blodget did, barely, is straight-up dishonest. I agree that Blodget is total scum parasite. Over at Macalope today he was called The Most Trusted Name in Trolling lol
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2013 15:13:23 GMT -8
Consumer Reports Says Apple's iPhone 5 Is The Worst Of The Top Smartphones -- Business Insider headline just tweeted out .. lovely. It's against my better judgment to put the link in but here it is...it's not even a top 3 phone at VZN? Wtf?! www.businessinsider.com/consumer-reports-iphone-5-2013-1Well now I'm convinced that CR is on the payroll of one or more of the following, Motorola, Samsung, Google and/or Verizon. I have never received a Store check (Verizon or AT&T) that didn't put iPhone at #1. My most recent Store Relationship is a recent AT&T hire (4 months ago). He came from 3 years at Verizon. According to him the majority of customers come in looking for iPhone, sales staff are SUPPOSED to suggest alternatives (but not push unless the customer shows interest). Still the iPhone was the lead SMARTPHONE. I'm sure there are others that have different experiences, but my checks have been going on since 2007 with a continually evolving set of sales reps. The message is virtually consistent, except where quarter results had weak sales. I'm ashamed to say I am guilty of the same crap Blodgett is. Had I read beyond the headline and first few sentences I would have recognized Blodgett's fact twisting work. I apologize to everyone, especially CR (although their past conduct has not been their best effort).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2013 15:17:12 GMT -8
Deleted by author
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2013 15:22:13 GMT -8
Aapl trading in this range makes holding and waiting very difficult. How long can one wait for the next big thing? IMHO, it needs to be soon with the way aapl is trading at. A lot of shareholders (I believe) are wondering how much longer to hold on if the share price continues to move down without any known reasons. If good ER does not turn aapl up, I will be out. Now we're sounding like spoiled brats. AAPL's Close yesterday was $527. It's closing price on January 4,2012 was $413.44. That's a 27.4% ROI, and way better than the DOW, NAZARETH OR S & P 500, AND THAT'S DURING A BAD YEAR FOR AAPL.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 5, 2013 15:23:22 GMT -8
All standard disclaimers: MHO, WAG, do-your-own-due-diligence:
Holy cr*p! I have good EW news! Thanks to the long-awaited return of AAPL-EW guru Mace, my little pea brain FINALLY pulled together an answer to an EW riddle that has been perplexing us since 644! Turned in homework to my EW teacher Avi, who gave it the thumbs-up!
For everyone who doesn't give a rip about my EW babbling, I shall cut to the chase:
IF we can bounce at 524-ish on Monday and subsequently take out 555 with volume, THEN the bottom is in.
After which, the minimum, shrimpiest, limp d*ck, worst-case projected EW WAG target for 2013 (can't do timeframe any better than that, sorry): 815.
The if-not scenario just means we keep taking it level by level. Count off every 5 points for back-of-napkin support levels: 515 ---> 510 ---> 505 ---> etc.
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