Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2020 3:04:41 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2020 3:17:00 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2020 3:28:44 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Mar 20, 2020 5:57:42 GMT -8
Last time the S&P 500 was 2400 was June 2017 and Apple was at $150/share
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Mar 20, 2020 7:39:55 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 20, 2020 7:47:21 GMT -8
Boring trading (relatively) is good - I think the actions of the gov of CA and just now NY (who are taking the steps China took) are reassuring the markets that we are taking the serious steps to face this. I hope we have found a bottom - also remember the stock market is a forecasting tool - so visibility of an end game and strategy is a good thing.
OK what the hell, just bought some more at 245. BTFD!!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2020 9:30:43 GMT -8
Thanks Dave for starting the daily thread.
I'm tempted to buy a little more today. The swings aren't as huge as they were over the last couple weeks, so things move into making longer term purchases.
While it seems Apple is fairly well positioned as long as manufacturing is moving, OTOH if a large subset of US jobs are furloughed for a few weeks, that's got to make a dent in disposable income, which truely is where Apple comes in. The stories say NY and CA represent 1/5 of the population, but here in NV we've been told to have all non-essential businesses shut down. It's not the same wording as CA's "Shelter in place", and there seems to be some leniency as Tesla's Gigafactory continues here.
The question is how many other states or large population centers are having non-essential businesses shut?
And with 61% international sales last quarter, how are other places doing. While the timing is offset, if places have a shutdown, that's got to affect overall GDP and personal spending, even if Apple is favored slightly by people having more free time on their devices (upgrade and add to the fleet) and buying apps and buy/stream tv/movies/music.
Just last Wednesday my parents were in line at Costco getting a new 27" iMac that went on sale (if you are ready for a new system, it's a good one, especially at something like $300 off of Apple's price), and thinking that all those queuing up in line were there to get an iMac instead of water/TP/food. Ahhhh, wishful thinking.
At some point is seems things will recover a bit to only a 20% decline, as other large drops have. OTOH, it seems the market could still be spooked easily. Just guessing, I would think there would still be 50/50 odds of a drop back to the recent lows for AAPl and the market, late today or more likely come Monday.
And so, while already being a little leveraged, I'm making the bold move to hold, but will eye picking a little AAPL and SPY up at maybe $243 and $267 (EDIT: meant $237, and we're now below that), respectively.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 20, 2020 9:42:12 GMT -8
Re. the demand question - for sure this is an economic black swan event for sure - one good argument will be with even more folks shifting to working from home, they will need the latest and greatest tools - i.e. macs, iPads, etc -
Also AirPods are excellent for sound fidelity and clarity when doing Skype or zoom meetings
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Post by pauls on Mar 20, 2020 9:58:14 GMT -8
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Post by pauls on Mar 20, 2020 10:06:42 GMT -8
Re. the demand question - for sure this is an economic black swan event for sure - one good argument will be with even more folks shifting to working from home, they will need the latest and greatest tools - i.e. macs, iPads, etc - Also AirPods are excellent for sound fidelity and clarity when doing Skype or zoom meetings - Jeff Agreed. Hopefully the grid can handle the change while everybody is binge streaming video and games all day and night. I can only imagine with schools shutdown til fall.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2020 11:19:47 GMT -8
And so, while already being a little leveraged, I'm making the bold move to hold, but will eye picking a little AAPL and SPY up at maybe $243 and $267 (EDIT: meant $237, and we're now below that), respectively. Ok. Picked up SPY at $231.5 and AAPL at $242.1. Not a ton, but a little chunk. We'll see how the weekend goes. There's definitely risk there, but things are changing a few times a day, so a weekend gives 2.5 days of that, enough to digest a lot of the situation and maybe start to move forward. The rumorville flies. On the homefront, it was something like 6 jumps of news from someone hearing or seeing at the local labcorp office that 2 people in town tested positive. And this fly-through happened this morning, in 2-3 hours. The 3 biggies I see that will change things a little is if the quarantines slow things down (could start to see that in 2.5 days), some drugs continue to show promise and the FDA gives an initial thought on the manner, or if TP starts being at stores. The stimulus could help, but with CA and NY being higher cost areas with higher salaries, and higher densities with higher infections, I'd think there would be a push to not try to save 25% (or whatever) by limiting those who get a check at a certain level. Sure, it might be needed by 90% or 95% of the population more than the last little chunk, but the optics and overhead and potential problems just aren't worth it. Give it to all, and tell all to spend it, suggesting to spend or donate it within a month if they don't need it for their basic costs. Keep that money moving and making its 7 hops. Both SPY and AAPL are down a little more (just above $230 and $240 respectively), but when I was picking up a few shares they were moving up and being bought.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 20, 2020 11:40:03 GMT -8
And so, while already being a little leveraged, I'm making the bold move to hold, but will eye picking a little AAPL and SPY up at maybe $243 and $267 (EDIT: meant $237, and we're now below that), respectively. through options or margin? (or both?)
do you give zero chance to a further drop? (say, to 50% from the top for the spy, which is less than 2008) what's your contingency plan - stop losses? capital loss carryforward?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 20, 2020 11:41:33 GMT -8
Be careful. The US case numbers have been on track to triple every three days. With the lockdowns hopefully that will start to slow down. But today's cases were probably contracted a week or more ago.
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Post by nwjade on Mar 20, 2020 11:47:06 GMT -8
Apple was stronger than the market, up as much as $6 something earlier and now getting clobbered into the close. Does quadruple witching have something to do with this action?
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 20, 2020 11:51:40 GMT -8
Remarkable to me how many folks are posting such dooms-day type comments. On Seeking Alpha, an article titled, "Apple target, iPhone estimates trimmed on virus impact", had comments like the ones enclosed below. The one person, D_Tree, always posts negative comments regarding AAPL, but I can only assume the others are trying to push AAPL down even further that it already is. =================================== GR Value Contributor Comments5790 | + Follow Apple is a $195-$200 stock if you want fair value until further notice. There's no way the consumer will be spending at estimates they have. Discover Financial stock is predicting endless defaults. I would expect $11-$12.50 or something like that and slap a 15-17 p/e on it to be generous. jmho. Until we learn more that is. NEW | 19 Mar 2020, 05:19 PM Reply 0 Like D_Tree Comments884 | + Follow When was the LAST time APPLE was DOWN when the NASDAQ was up 2.3%? Maybe NEVER. This is a CLEAR WARNING to APPLE shareholders...your time is running out to sell...before this stock CRATERS. NEW | 19 Mar 2020, 05:01 PM Reply 0 Like D_Tree Comments884 | + Follow ...and the unemployment rate is already ratcheting up in the US. These numbers will be revised down 100x while Apple implodes down to below $100 in the next 30 days. 19 Mar 2020, 10:5 Orion Pax Roosevelt Comments770 | + Follow Not nearly low enough. Apple will be in mid 100s in the next 6 months. No one will be rushing out to buy a 1200 dollar phone in the next 2 years because families wil have to choose between groceries and mortgage. This is s new reality and so many Ameicans STILL havent woken up to it yet. The old world is gone for now. 19 Mar 2020, 07:40 AM =================================== As an AAPL Long for 20 years, I recognize that anything's possible with regards to the ups and downs of the AAPL share price, but I try to keep things in perspective during this World Wide crisis by occasionally looking at the one and five year charts. I realize that we're in uncharted territory, no pun intended, but I'm still confident that the crisis will *delay* good financial results for Apple and others, not cancel them.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2020 12:03:07 GMT -8
And so, while already being a little leveraged, I'm making the bold move to hold, but will eye picking a little AAPL and SPY up at maybe $243 and $267 (EDIT: meant $237, and we're now below that), respectively. through options or margin? (or both?) do you give zero chance to a further drop? (say, to 50% from the top for the spy, which is less than 2008) what's your contingency plan - stop losses? capital loss carryforward?
No options right now aside from a small amount of Jan '21 covered calls at 330 which I wrote at around $10. They were down to $8 when ~$240 today. Probably $7 now when close to $230. I borrow up to the value of our real estate, roughly. I borrowed a little more in the past, and then sold some things off in the late fall. With today's purchases, I'm still borrowing less. It's good to keep a worst-case scenario in mind. Offhand, I'd get a margin call if things dropped another 5/6ths, or 83%, from here. Today's margin rate is 1.35%, so SPY is beating that, and on AAPL the differential is 0.1%. Some might write that 0.001 But I agree, if I can make a joke at it, it doesn't seem like this is the "blood in the streets" bottom. This time is different, as they always are. Luckily it's been a while since a pandemic based drop. Zoom, a cross-platform video system, is getting a lot of use. At least parts of the CA schools are using it, our school it trying it out, and now my son's TA is using it. FaceTime/Google Hangouts/Skype missed the ball, though like all things here there are day to day changes.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 20, 2020 12:06:33 GMT -8
Options expiration plus the GS report on gdp hit of 25% - thanks GS - throw gas on the fire -
Possibly also a fear that buyback will be disallowed, which would be so freakin' unfair to a company with such a pristine balance sheet as AAPL
Thank god it's Friday - here's to better days ahead.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 20, 2020 12:12:23 GMT -8
Remarkable to me how many folks are posting such dooms-day type comments. On Seeking Alpha, an article titled, "Apple target, iPhone estimates trimmed on virus impact", had comments like the ones enclosed below. The one person, D_Tree, always posts negative comments regarding AAPL, but I can only assume the others are trying to push AAPL down even further that it already is. Are you kidding me? All I ever see on AFB lately is FUD and doom and gloom and outright hostility to anything positive. The death rate continues to drop BTW. Current US numbers: 225 deaths of 16621 cases = 1.35% (for those who cannot understand decimal points). If AFB is the shining beacon of positivity for AAPL and the markets, sell!
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ems
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Post by ems on Mar 20, 2020 12:15:36 GMT -8
buyback restrictions would only apply to companies that need a bailout, presumably, and that would not include AAPL I'd think.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2020 12:18:47 GMT -8
As an AAPL Long for 20 years, I recognize that anything's possible with regards to the ups and downs of the AAPL share price, but I try to keep things in perspective during this World Wide crisis by occasionally looking at the one and five year charts. I realize that we're in uncharted territory, no pun intended, but I'm still confident that the crisis will *delay* good financial results for Apple and others, not cancel them. Yep. We're lucky that AAPL had a solid push up the last 12 months. AAPL is now where it was all the way back in.....the end of September. Yes, set back to prices just less than 6 months ago. OTOH, the SPY that I bought in the Jan 2018 dip, for a 10% discount or something like that, is well in the red now. That might have been at $280, which topped out at $339 recently. Currently, it's at $229 (drop of 32.5%!), a price back from the start of 2017, set back a little more than 3 years. Ouch! Double ouch, for all the newbies since 2008, or those that didn't have much skin in the game then. But, the financial markets will recover, eventually. IMO they have oversold the damage this virus will cause, both in lifes and financially. But step one is getting through the health issues. This pandemic is still very small compared to the truly ugly outbreaks the world has historically seen. Just like reading up on the Donner Party and historic Manias, Panics and Crashes, sometimes it's worthwhile to read how bad some of those things were.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 20, 2020 12:19:13 GMT -8
Zoom, a cross-platform video system, is getting a lot of use. At least parts of the CA schools are using it, our school it trying it out, and now my son's TA is using it. FaceTime/Google Hangouts/Skype missed the ball, though like all things here there are day to day changes. Fabulous Spouse has begun using it for access to a course she was taking before things got shut down.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 20, 2020 12:19:37 GMT -8
Remarkable to me how many folks are posting such dooms-day type comments. On Seeking Alpha, an article titled, "Apple target, iPhone estimates trimmed on virus impact", had comments like the ones enclosed below. The one person, D_Tree, always posts negative comments regarding AAPL, but I can only assume the others are trying to push AAPL down even further that it already is. Are you kidding me? All I ever see on AFB lately is FUD and doom and gloom and outright hostility to anything positive. The death rate continues to drop BTW. Current US numbers: 225 deaths of 16621 cases = 1.35% (for those who cannot understand decimal points). If AFB is the shining beacon of positivity for AAPL and the markets, sell! did you buy today? if you're as cocky as you've been that the whole thing is blow out of proportion, why not sell your current SPY / AAPL and load up on UPRO / AAPL $300 calls? serious question, not trolling (in fact, i bought at close)
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 20, 2020 12:21:19 GMT -8
through options or margin? (or both?) do you give zero chance to a further drop? (say, to 50% from the top for the spy, which is less than 2008) what's your contingency plan - stop losses? capital loss carryforward?
No options right now aside from a small amount of Jan '21 covered calls at 330 which I wrote at around $10. They were down to $8 when ~$240 today. Probably $7 now when close to $230. I borrow up to the value of our real estate, roughly. I borrowed a little more in the past, and then sold some things off in the late fall. With today's purchases, I'm still borrowing less. It's good to keep a worst-case scenario in mind. Offhand, I'd get a margin call if things dropped another 5/6ths, or 83%, from here. Today's margin rate is 1.35%, so SPY is beating that, and on AAPL the differential is 0.1%. Some might write that 0.001 But I agree, if I can make a joke at it, it doesn't seem like this is the "blood in the streets" bottom. This time is different, as they always are. Luckily it's been a while since a pandemic based drop. Zoom, a cross-platform video system, is getting a lot of use. At least parts of the CA schools are using it, our school it trying it out, and now my son's TA is using it. FaceTime/Google Hangouts/Skype missed the ball, though like all things here there are day to day changes.
this looks reasonable... i'm mildly levered through options (no margin) with a bit of cash left, but i bought a bit more aapl at close
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2020 12:31:17 GMT -8
No options right now aside from a small amount of Jan '21 covered calls at 330 which I wrote at around $10. They were down to $8 when ~$240 today. Probably $7 now when close to $230. I borrow up to the value of our real estate, roughly. I borrowed a little more in the past, and then sold some things off in the late fall. With today's purchases, I'm still borrowing less. It's good to keep a worst-case scenario in mind. Offhand, I'd get a margin call if things dropped another 5/6ths, or 83%, from here. Today's margin rate is 1.35%, so SPY is beating that, and on AAPL the differential is 0.1%. Some might write that 0.001 But I agree, if I can make a joke at it, it doesn't seem like this is the "blood in the streets" bottom. This time is different, as they always are. Luckily it's been a while since a pandemic based drop. Zoom, a cross-platform video system, is getting a lot of use. At least parts of the CA schools are using it, our school it trying it out, and now my son's TA is using it. FaceTime/Google Hangouts/Skype missed the ball, though like all things here there are day to day changes. this looks reasonable... i'm mildly levered through options (no margin) with a bit of cash left, but i bought a bit more aapl at close
Thanks! Living through a couple margin/option levered drops of 85%, I chill a bit now. Though I do occasionally feel like getting a bit reckless by selling shares in the ROTH and buying spreads. I talked about doing that back in the 2008 timeframe too, but that's the type of risk that ideally you take once significantly off the bottom, but with a bit of juice left at the top. And unless timed just right, for me the risk justify the reward. We'll get through this. A full recovery will take a while, but a nice leg up will happen at some point when there is a good piece or triplet of solid news. The timing just depends, as IMO it will take news in addition to the psychological turning of downtrodidness.
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Post by hyci004 on Mar 20, 2020 14:05:15 GMT -8
The last time that the S&P500 was at today’s close... HODL! 2/2/17 3/20/20 AAPL $132 $229 +73% S&P500 $2307 $2304 0%
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Post by pauls on Mar 20, 2020 15:17:21 GMT -8
Be careful. The US case numbers have been on track to triple every three days. With the lockdowns hopefully that will start to slow down. But today's cases were probably contracted a week or more ago. Just finally seeing test results in decent numbers. Our #’s for infected should spike day after day for awhile. Today’s results likely swabbed 4 days ago.... I’m not guessing the bottom. With more data will come more fog interpreting it in these divided times.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 20, 2020 16:26:38 GMT -8
The last time that the S&P500 was at today’s close... HODL! 2/2/17 3/20/20 AAPL $132 $229 +73% S&P500 $2307 $2304 0 great #yes - we had more of a cushion than most here - onwards and upwards... the technicians all said we had about 10% more to get into the buy zone for there - i.e. 220 - so alright then let's flush out the weak hands stabilize already. I
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2020 17:04:25 GMT -8
FWIW: I still believe April 1st will be the LAST day of shutdowns.
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Post by tricouleur on Mar 20, 2020 18:12:48 GMT -8
FWIW: I still believe April 1st will be the LAST day of shutdowns. Good grief, I like to be an optimist but have you read the news about New York today? They are running out of ventilators and the hospital systems are going to be overwhelmed. What are you basing your April 1 comment on?
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Post by BillH on Mar 20, 2020 19:02:07 GMT -8
Are you kidding me? All I ever see on AFB lately is FUD and doom and gloom and outright hostility to anything positive. The death rate continues to drop BTW. Current US numbers: 225 deaths of 16621 cases = 1.35% (for those who cannot understand decimal points). If AFB is the shining beacon of positivity for AAPL and the markets, sell! did you buy today? if you're as cocky as you've been that the whole thing is blow out of proportion, why not sell your current SPY / AAPL and load up on UPRO / AAPL $300 calls? serious question, not trolling (in fact, i bought at close) Said it before but I'll try once again. JdsSoCal thinks this is all about body counts. While that's entirely true the idea is to minimize them less you turn into Italy. We talk about stock prices here and that's a different issue. Do I know where the bottom is? Haven't a clue. Here's a bit of history that may or may not apply to what is happening today.
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