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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 15:00:19 GMT -8
So who can answer this question - if we continue to hover around $500 - or worse - go lower until Jan OpEx this Friday.....and Monday is a holiday....when does the Earnings Run come? Is it ONE DAY?....ugh In AH on earnings day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 15:03:00 GMT -8
Yup!
I'm not expecting any miracles from AAPL (earnings run-up, whatever), until starting around 4:30ish, 4:45ish PM EST next Wednesday.
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 15:06:42 GMT -8
So who can answer this question - if we continue to hover around $500 - or worse - go lower until Jan OpEx this Friday.....and Monday is a holiday....when does the Earnings Run come? Is it ONE DAY?....ugh I have felt for weeks that there is no pre-earnings run coming this time around. The screaming avalanche of FUD has everyone in "show-me" mode. Here's hoping Apple does not disappoint. Jan. 23 is the big show and tell day. I too hope Apple does not disappoint.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 14, 2013 15:07:29 GMT -8
So who can answer this question - if we continue to hover around $500 - or worse - go lower until Jan OpEx this Friday.....and Monday is a holiday....when does the Earnings Run come? Is it ONE DAY?....ugh In AH on earnings day. Technicians: If we start our run in AH on 1/23, do we have to fill that gap eventually?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 15:09:27 GMT -8
Not a technician, but: Nowhere is It Written.™
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 15:18:58 GMT -8
There's been lots of talk about TC coming out with a statement or leaking one to some media outlet to counter the FUD. Consider this; last quarter he did pre-announce that iPad sales would be weaker than expected. So isn't it possible that his silence this quarter says sales are as strong as expected?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 15:20:49 GMT -8
Technicians: If we start our run in AH on 1/23, do we have to fill that gap eventually? We haven't filled the runaway gap from JAN'12 earnings.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 15:21:38 GMT -8
Pssssssttt... yes, you are. ;D
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 14, 2013 15:22:47 GMT -8
You do not think that the massive amount of puts that were supporting AAPL at 500 were not closed when AAPL went under 500? I think they were. We broke support, who knows what happens next. No, I do not think the 38,000 $500 puts closed up today.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 15:25:18 GMT -8
You do not think that the massive amount of puts that were supporting AAPL at 500 were not closed when AAPL went under 500? I think they were. We broke support, who knows what happens next. No, I do not think the 38,000 $500 puts closed up today. Not that this necessarily means anything, but volume on that strike today: 42,900.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 15:31:23 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 14, 2013 15:32:42 GMT -8
Well be at $50 TTM EPS sometime in the next 6 months, and have $150+ cash per share (barring any miracle use of the cash pile). How do you figure? What earnings numbers are you using for Q1 and Q2 to reach $50 TTM? Even 16.25 (Q1) and 14.25 (Q2) doesn't quite reach $50!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 14, 2013 15:32:56 GMT -8
No, I do not think the 38,000 $500 puts closed up today. Not that this necessarily means anything, but volume on that strike today: 42,900. Wow! Guys must be banging cocktail waitresses two at a time! Players can't get a drink.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 15:38:29 GMT -8
From The Loop - is he speaking for them?:
Apple can’t respond to rumors of iPhone 5 cuts even if it wanted to Posted on Monday, January 14th, 2013 at 3:34 pm. PT
Written by Jim Dalrymple
I’ve been asked a lot today why Apple hasn’t responded to the Wall Street Journal article saying that there have been massive cuts to iPhone 5 orders. The simple fact is, they can’t.
SEC rules prohibit Apple from talking publicly about the company. This is known as a quiet period and all publicly traded companies must adhere to these rules.
The Wall Street Journal can publish more of its “according to a person familiar with the matter” and there isn’t a lot Apple can say.
Apple is scheduled to release its Q1 2013 earnings on January 23, 2013 — next Wednesday.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 15:41:29 GMT -8
Well be at $50 TTM EPS sometime in the next 6 months, and have $150+ cash per share (barring any miracle use of the cash pile). How do you figure? What earnings numbers are you using for Q1 and Q2 to reach $50 TTM? Even 16.25 (Q1) and 14.25 (Q2) doesn't quite reach $50! "within 6 months" includes wiggle room for it to happen for Q3 earnings
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 15:43:19 GMT -8
Not taking Ambien yet. Drinking more than usual and a lot earlier. I like the article. We will know on Jan. 23.
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Post by renee on Jan 14, 2013 15:45:53 GMT -8
I get the "Apple missed 2 quarters in a row", and can understand it falling...but why not fall immediately after bad earnings instead of rising to $700, then crashing back down? And why did it sell off after April earnings when there had been two blowout earnings in a row?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 15:47:44 GMT -8
This downtrend will end with good numbers on Jan. 23. Which is exactly why I bought 200 JAN Wk 4 $505-$510 BCS today.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 15:49:39 GMT -8
There's been lots of talk about TC coming out with a statement or leaking one to some media outlet to counter the FUD. Consider this; last quarter he did pre-announce that iPad sales would be weaker than expected. So isn't it possible that his silence this quarter says sales are as strong as expected? As expected? I think if everyone expected blowout earnings, we wouldn't be sitting here at $500
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 15:51:23 GMT -8
From The Loop - is he speaking for them?: Apple can’t respond to rumors of iPhone 5 cuts even if it wanted to Posted on Monday, January 14th, 2013 at 3:34 pm. PT Written by Jim Dalrymple I’ve been asked a lot today why Apple hasn’t responded to the Wall Street Journal article saying that there have been massive cuts to iPhone 5 orders. The simple fact is, they can’t. SEC rules prohibit Apple from talking publicly about the company. This is known as a quiet period and all publicly traded companies must adhere to these rules. The Wall Street Journal can publish more of its “according to a person familiar with the matter” and there isn’t a lot Apple can say. Apple is scheduled to release its Q1 2013 earnings on January 23, 2013 — next Wednesday. I know the quiet period is no joke for IPOs...but let's see how one well-established publicly traded company deals with quiet periods, shall we? www.investor.jnj.com/guidelines.cfmMore tradition and "fear" of the SEC (or call it "playing it safe", whatever) than Commandment™, IMHO. If JNJ really wanted to batten down them hatches, it'd say, no talking to anyone EVER during the quiet/silent period.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 14, 2013 15:51:51 GMT -8
Is it wishful thinking to hope that Apple has been stepping in at $500-ish and played a part in this quadruple bottom? A small boost to EPS due to fewer outstanding shares would be most welcome, not to mention the fact that they are actually doing what they should be.
$10B would be about a 2% reduction in float - not insignificant.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 15:56:00 GMT -8
So we're holding kind of steady just over 500 now - about 503. Any significance to that? I know we briefly breeched 500 but if we can close above 500 today this is what - the 4th attempt to crack 500? Yes. Since Sept 21 (AAPL's all time high) AAPL has tested $500 about 6 times. Minor dips below $500 have not held. I would be shocked if sub $500 held this time either. Average day after earnings pop averages about 4%. I'm banking on 2%. Therefore a 2% pop on $500 puts AAPL at $510, the top of my $505-$510 BCS for next week.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 14, 2013 15:58:29 GMT -8
I pumped in a small amount of cash into my shrinking brokerage account. Am eyeing the 2015 Jan 700s, would love to buy them around 33 (currently 36)
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 15:59:22 GMT -8
There's been lots of talk about TC coming out with a statement or leaking one to some media outlet to counter the FUD. Consider this; last quarter he did pre-announce that iPad sales would be weaker than expected. So isn't it possible that his silence this quarter says sales are as strong as expected? As expected? I think if everyone expected blowout earnings, we wouldn't be sitting here at $500 It is obvious the market is not expecting blowout earnings. Longs are expecting good ER and good guidance. I don't want sandbagging. Just give it to us straight without the sandbagging factor.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 14, 2013 15:59:43 GMT -8
Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. Heh, in this case, if I have to ask, it's probably not allowed . . . I think it would depend a bit on your account and who the brokerage etc, in terms of how fast you had to even up. Something like this happened to me, which I didn't intend (posted about it here: aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=options&thread=82&page=2#7837). Short version is, puts I had which I thought would expire worthless and I was assigned 700 shares of aapl (I was crapping my pants). I called and they said I should sell them as soon as I can. I didn't risk it and got most out right at the open on Monday (Aapl went up $20 that day and if I held to the end of the day I could have made 15k on the shares I held on borrowed money- lol oh well). Anyway I don't think the broker would auto-sell them right away, but obviously the big risk would be if aapl earnings tanked, the stock went down to 450, and you are down $50*100 shares, on money you don't have. Even if you had cash to diceroll with and you wanted to take that chance on a more likely big beat, your broker would likely put a warning or something on the account for the 'oopsie' of having $50k on margin.
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Post by bick on Jan 14, 2013 16:59:19 GMT -8
With today's market close, according to Yahoo finance we now have the following market caps with the new Four Horsemen. Each horseman is TWICE the market cap value of the previous. Provides some perspective on the insanity. AAPL | 501.75 | PE11.36 | (472B) | GOOG | 723.25 | PE22.66 | (238B) | AMZN | 272.73 | PE3,246 | (124B) | FB | 30.95 | PE160 | (67B) |
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 17:07:40 GMT -8
Is it wishful thinking to hope that Apple has been stepping in at $500-ish and played a part in this quadruple bottom? A small boost to EPS due to fewer outstanding shares would be most welcome, not to mention the fact that they are actually doing what they should be. $10B would be about a 2% reduction in float - not insignificant. I'm hoping for a number larger than that...would love for them to make a statement with the size of a buyback - assuming they even do one.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 14, 2013 17:13:50 GMT -8
I pumped in a small amount of cash into my shrinking brokerage account. Am eyeing the 2015 Jan 700s, would love to buy them around 33 (currently 36) I bought some more Jan '15 600's today.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 14, 2013 17:18:34 GMT -8
More tradition and "fear" of the SEC (or call it "playing it safe", whatever) than Commandment™, IMHO. If JNJ really wanted to batten down them hatches, it'd say, no talking to anyone EVER during the quiet/silent period. And Apple does this too, at least AFAIK. Last Q, the iPad "number reset" was in a videocast of a release (IPhone?). Thus everyone interested knew of it at once. Back when I was at Apple, probably 8-10 years ago, I read the file on their quiet period. If I remember right, the quiet period was stated as being self imposed, as was the 2 week period prior to earnings. Now, Apple has dealt more with the SEC since then, and previous to this they would sometimes give previews of certain info at the MSWF keynote, normally within a week of earnings and sometimes within days. Things could be different now, but I'd expect they likely still follow something like this but can push it a bit if they feel it's important.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 14, 2013 17:25:07 GMT -8
Average day after earnings pop averages about 4%. I'm banking on 2%. Therefore a 2% pop on $500 puts AAPL at $510, the top of my $505-$510 BCS for next week. Nice choice Gregg, though not as Uber-bullish as you've been in the past. Is this because it's a weekly, or due to your aforementioned change in attitude on investing in AAPL? Are you planning to hold out for the full $5, or would you jump out at 4.5 with a 100% profit? While I'm thinking more about ATM spreads 6+ months out, or even 2+months out, I'd consider putting a little something down like you did.
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